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Europaudvalget 2007-08 (2. samling)
EUU Alm.del Bilag 461
Offentligt

Summary

The role of

cod in the

Baltic Sea

Björn Carlsons Östersjöstiftelse

Baltic Sea 2020

Box 50005, S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden

Tel: +46 (0)8 673 97 64, Fax: +46 (0)8 673 97 60

[email protected] - www.balticsea2020.org

The aim of Baltic Sea 2020 is to stimulate creative interdisciplinary

and international collaboration in a variety of areas, resulting in

political, economical and physical measures taken to improve the

environment of the Baltic Sea in the coming 10-15 years.

Baltic Sea 2020 was established as a foundation through a private

donation made by Björn Carlson in the autumn 2005.

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It is hardly news that the cod stocks in the Baltic Sea are in a poor condition. Similar to

many commercially important

ﬁ

sh stocks around the world, cod has decreased substan-

tially during recent decades. Stocks that play an important role for the commercial

ﬁ

sh-

ermen are commonly also important for sustaining functioning ecosystems. The Baltic

Sea region has well-established democratic institutions that can base their decisions on

qualiﬁed scientiﬁc assessments. The prerequisites for a sustainable

ﬁ

sheries manage-

ment should thus be relatively good. If we are unable to manage the Baltic cod stocks

in a sustainable matter, where will we be able to reverse the negative trend observed for

many of the worlds’

ﬁ

sh stocks?

Cod and the ecosystem

The Baltic is a productive sea. When the cod stocks reached its historical record, dur-

ing the 1980s, roughly 22 per cent of global cod catches were landed from this tiny

sea! Catches today are far more modest. Cod is a bottow-dwelling, cold-water species,

originating from the sea, where salinities are far higher than in the Baltic. The Baltic cod

is specially adapted – reproduction can only be successful if oxygen and salinity levels

(affected by rainfall and inﬂows of oxygenated, saline North Sea water) are sufﬁciently

high. Large cod stocks are thus in part regulated by natural variation.

But human inﬂuence on the Baltic Sea also affects cod reproduction and survival. Eu-

trophication has contributed to increased oxygen consumption at larger depths, which

decrease the potential for cod eggs to survive. In a historical context, however, eutrophi-

cation has contributed to the large production of cod. In the early 1900s, the Baltic Sea

was a nutrient poor sea with a large seal population (which partly eat cod). Seals were

hunted during a few decades and decreased substantially. Agricultural production, and

thus leakage of nutrients to the sea, increased during the same time period. Decreasing

seal populations early in the century appears to have contributed to a rapid increase in

cod during the 1930s. When eutrophication accelerated in the 1970s, there was again a

substantial increase of cod. Both increases coincided with favourable hydrological con-

ditions (high salt and oxygen levels), but without the decrease of seals early in the cen-

tury and the increased nu-

trients added to the system

“Predators such as cod are thus not only

leading to increased produc-

food, but also important components of the

tion in the system, the cod

ecosystems”

catches during the 1980s

appear highly unlikely. Seals

are currently not a threat to the cod population, but eutrophication remains both a

problem and a prerequisite for a large cod stock. Measures taken within the context of

the

ﬁ

sheries policy can produce a large and productive cod stock again.

Loss of predators such as seals or cod in an ecosystem can lead to chain reactions.

Knowledge about these ”cascading effects” is leading to an increased understanding of

the complexity of biological systems. The decline of cod in the Baltic may have led to

increased symptoms of eutrophication and may also have contributed to a decrease of

pike and perch along the Swedish coast! There are several indications suggesting these

inter-linkages in the ecosystem. Predators such as cod are thus not only food, but also

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important components of the ecosystems. The EU common

ﬁ

sheries policy underlines

the ecosystem approach, i.e. that all components of the ecosystems should be managed

sustainable. Examples from other seas illustrate that substantially altered ecosystems

can lead to “regime shifts”, where ecosystem becomes “locked in” an alternate stable

state, prohibiting depleted species from recovery. The cod stocks outside the coast of

Newfoundland represent a well known example, where the stocks has not recovered

despite more than a decade of

ﬁ

shing bans. Presumably, other species has “taken the

ecological niches” previously occupied by cod. There is potential for alternate stable

states also in the Baltic Sea but there are clear indications that these mechanisms are

not sufﬁciently strong to hinder a recovery of the cod stock. It is the intensive

ﬁ

shing

pressure that is keeping the stock at a low level.

Cod

ﬁ

sheries in the Baltic Sea

Cod is the most valuable

ﬁ

sh in the Baltic Sea, and a large proportion of the

ﬁ

shermen

in the region are dependent on viable cod stocks. There are two separate stocks in the

region, the “western stock” and the Baltic Sea cod – the “eastern stock”. The geo-

graphical border between these two is by the island of Bornholm. The two stocks are

distinctly genetically separated and the eastern stock is uniquely adapted to the brackish

waters of the Baltic and can thus not be “replenished” by migration from the western

stock. The majority of the catch s taken from the eastern stock, mainly in Hanö Bay and

around Bornholm. Commercial

ﬁ

sheries for cod have previously taken place all the way

up to the Bothnian Bay in the northern parts of the Baltic. A large stock would lead to

a larger geographical distribution and thereby larger opportunities to

ﬁ

sh for cod also

in other parts of the Baltic.

Cod

ﬁ

sheries in the region are dominated by Poland, Denmark and Sweden, but also

Germany, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia land substantial catches. Since cod

ﬁ

sheries have

such a fundamental role, the size of the quota thus determines the proﬁtability for many

of the commercial

ﬁ

shermen operating in the region. Increasing fuel costs is also con-

tributing to decreasing proﬁtability. An economic assessment of the commercial

ﬁ

sher-

ies in the Baltic Sea illustrate that the proﬁtability has decreased during several years and

that

ﬁ

sheries is playing a

“In 2003 however, juvenile cod (that newer had

decreasing role in provid-

ing local and regional in-

the chance to reproduce) made up almost 40

come. The contribution

from

ﬁ

sheries to Dan-

per cent of catches.“

ish, Swedish and Polish

economies is modest and

only constitutes 0.5, 0.2 and 0.005 per cent of GDP respectively, but is regionally and

important source of employment. About 3 200

ﬁ

shermen are active from Denmark,

ﬁ

shing in the Baltic and North Seas, and other seas. In 2004, Poland had 3 800

ﬁ

sher-

men active in the Baltic. Sweden has 2 200 active

ﬁ

shermen. It is unclear how many of

these are employed full time as

ﬁ

shermen. The processing industry employs additional

people and Poland has emerged during recent years as an important middle hand in the

processing and trade of Baltic cod. The total value of cod for Swedish

ﬁ

shermen was

164.8 million Swedish kronor in 2005. Recreational

ﬁ

shing for cod is a well-established

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activity in Germany, Denmark and along parts of the Swedish West coast. The absence

of large cod stocks thus affects other sectors than the commercial

ﬁ

sheries.

Trawl, gillnets (set on the bottom) and hook (long-line) are the common

ﬁ

shing meth-

ods. Gillnet and long-line

ﬁ

sheries is mainly conducted by small vessels

ﬁ

shing close to

their home port, thus generally using less fuel than trawlers. Gillnet

ﬁ

sheries are more

selective (catches less juvenile cod) than trawl-ﬁsheries, although more selective trawls

has been developed (BACOMA-trawl). Gillnet

ﬁ

sheries beneﬁt from a large cod stock

consisting of adult individuals, but has decreased in recent years. In the 1980s, total

catches consisted of less than 20 per cent juvenile cod. In 2003 however, juvenile cod

(that newer had the chance to reproduce) made up almost 40 per cent of catches. No

wonder the stock is having problems recovering! Even if gillnets is more size selective,

they also catch seabirds and seals, and substantial problems with seals damaging

ﬁ

sh-

ing gear and catches is making this

ﬁ

sheries difﬁcult. In a resource and environmental

perspective there are thus both problems and potential with gillnet- and trawl

ﬁ

sheries

respectively. The economic beneﬁts are most readily found in the small-scale gillnet

ﬁ

sheries, according to the Swedish Board of Fisheries. If the

ﬁ

shery were conducted by

a small number of larger vessels however, the

ﬂ

eet would be much easier to monitor.

Substantial funds have previously (1995-1999) been invested in reducing

ﬂ

eet capacity,

simultaneous to large funds being allocated to modernising existing boats, thus increas-

ing capacity. Larger and more effective vessels in part replaced small ineffective boats.

Fishing capacity also increased in Poland and Lithuania during the time period, in part as

a result of exported

ﬁ

shing capacity from member states. Substantial scrapping of

ﬁ

sh-

ing capacity was conducted during 2000-2006, mainly in Poland and Lithuania. Support

for modernisation has become more restrictive. Despite a decrease in

ﬁ

shing capacity,

there is no change in the political pressure to maintaining unsustainable cod quotas.

ICES advice and the political decisions

ICES, the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas, is coordinating

ﬁ

sher-

ies research and producing advice on what

ﬁ

shing pressure the stocks can take. ICES

deﬁnes a lower limit for the amount of adult

ﬁ

sh needed (160 000 tonnes for the east-

ern stock) to reduce the risks of collapse and generally recommend

ﬁ

shing ban if the

stock falls below this level. The stock has been below the critical level during most of

the 1990s and during the 2000s. There risk for collapse is thus very real, but despite this

fact, 60 per cent of all adult cod has been taken from the Baltic annually.

We should not give up the eastern stock despite these facts. A reduced

ﬁ

shing pressure

could have a rapid effect on the stock. According to preliminary calculations, the stock

could reach twice the present size after only one year of

ﬁ

shing ban, thus almost reach-

ing the critical level of 160 000 tonnes. Additional years of

ﬁ

shing bans would lead

to additional increases. Four

“Four years with a zero quota could lead to

years with a zero quota could

lead to a stock exceeding 450

a stock exceeding 450 000 tonnes, com-

000 tonnes, compared to cur-

pared to current 80 000 tonnes”

rent 80 000 tonnes. A larger

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stock would mean much larger catches at a lower cost and for a higher proﬁt, without

the present risk of collapse. Responsible management of cod between 1983 and 2007

could have generated substantial additional catches and annual proﬁts exceeding addi-

tional 1-2 billion Swedish kronor. These numbers are far from the political reality.

The EU council of ministers decision on annual cod quotas has consistently been high-

er than the ICES recommendations. One explanation for this is that the council also

take account of social and economical factors. A recent review of the common

ﬁ

sh-

eries policy concluded

that the rationale behind

“Sustainable use of the cod stock would in-

the council decision was

crease the proﬁtability of the commercial

ﬁ

sh-

hard to evaluate as there

are conﬂicting goals and

eries and is likely to have a number of positive

limited documentation.

eﬀects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem”

It is a well-known fact

that the decisions in-

volve horse trading and that the ministers are exposed to lobbying from commercial

ﬁ

shermen and local constituency interests. The ministers thus base their decision in-

ﬂ

uenced by an outspoken interest group on the one hand and a large, but unorganized

public on the other hand. The result is decisions that are not favouring long-term sus-

tainability of either

ﬁ

sh stocks or commercial

ﬁ

sheries. The quotas are further exceeded

due to substantial illegal and unreported

ﬁ

shing.

Sustainable use of the cod stock would increase the proﬁtability of the commercial

ﬁ

sheries and is likely to have a number of positive effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem.

These long-term gains are likely to be far greater than the short-term losses from a

reduced

ﬁ

shery.