Europaudvalget 2016
SWD (2016) 0072
Offentligt
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EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
Brussels, 26.2.2016
SWD(2016) 72 final
COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT
Country Report Bulgaria 2016
Including an In-Depth Review on the prevention
and correction of macroeconomic imbalances
This document is a European Commission staff working document. It does not
constitute the official position of the Commission, nor does it prejudge any such position.
EN
EN
 swd (2016) 0072 - Ingen titel
CONTENTS
Executive summary
1.
2.
Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Imbalances, risks, and adjustment issues
2.1
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
2.5.
Financial sector developments
Corporate debt and deleveraging
Labour market
External indebtedness
MIP Assessment Matrix
1
4
14
14
22
26
34
40
3.
Additional structural issues
3.1
3.2.
3.3.
3.4.
3.5.
3.6.
Fiscal framework
Tax system and tax burden
Pension, health and long-term care systems
Education and skills
Poverty and social exclusion
Business and administrative environments
42
42
43
44
47
50
53
A.
B.
C.
Overview Table
MIP scoreboard
Standard Tables
60
64
65
LIST OF TABLES
1.1.
2.2.1.
2.5.1.
B.1.
C.1.
C.2.
C.3.
C.4.
C.5.
Key economic, financial and social indicators
Corporate debt ratios (2014 data)
MIP assessment matrix -Bulgaria
The MIP scoreboard for Bulgaria
Financial market indicators
Labour market and social indicators
Labour market and social indicators (continued)
Structural policy and business environment indicators
Green growth
13
23
40
64
65
66
67
68
69
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LIST OF GRAPHS
1.1.
1.2.
1.3.
1.4.
1.5.
1.6.
1.7.
1.8.
1.9.
1.10.
2.1.1.
2.1.2.
2.1.3.
2.1.4.
2.1.5.
2.1.6.
2.1.7.
2.1.8.
2.1.9.
2.1.10.
2.1.11.
2.1.12.
2.2.1.
2.2.2.
2.2.3.
2.3.1.
2.3.2.
2.3.3.
2.3.4.
2.3.5.
Real GDP growth by demand components
GDP per capita and total GDP relative to peers (including Bulgaria) (1)
HICP, GDP deflator and Producer price index (PPI)
Employment and GDP - levels compared to 2008
Real compensation per employee, labour productivity and real unit labour costs
At-risk-of-poverty for total population and groups
Net international investment position
Current account developments
Decomposition of gross external debt
5-year Credit Default Swaps spread in selected countries, basis points
Capital adequacy ratios in the banking system
Asset quality indicators for the banking system, % of gross loans
Shares in new deposits in selected bank segments, by majority ownership
Pre-tax return on assets, %
Effective interest rates and net interest rate margin for commercial banks
Credit dynamics in firms (BGN million)
Credit dynamics in households (BGN million)
Commercial banks’ reserves at BNB
Currency board assets and coverage
Market shares in terms of assets, by ownership
Cost efficiency and size of banks operating in Bulgaria
Insurance market evolution (total assets in BGN million)
Private sector debt, consolidated
Profitability of non-financial corporations
Sustainability risks by sector (2014 data)
Unemployment rate and potential additional labour force
Wage growth
Yearly growth in nominal costs
Minimum wage as a percentage of average earnings
Tax wedge in Bulgaria and the EU, income levels as % of average wage, 2014 (single
earners)
2.3.6.
2.3.7.
2.3.8.
2.4.1.
2.4.2.
2.4.3.
2.4.4.
Skills mismatches measured by dispersion rates and mismatch gaps
Activity, employment and unemployment, NEET and long-term unemployment rates
Youth: in education and training, employment rate, unemployment rate, NEET
Contributions to changes in NIIP
Implied yields on debt and equity investments
External assets and liabilities by sector
CA decomposition
29
30
31
31
34
35
36
36
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
9
15
15
15
16
16
16
16
17
17
18
18
21
22
22
23
26
28
28
29
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2.4.5.
2.4.6.
2.4.7.
2.4.8.
3.4.1.
3.5.1.
3.6.1.
3.6.2.
3.6.3.
CA of selected member states
Contributions to current account change
Net lending by sector
Saving-investment by sector
Population aged 25 to 64 participating in education and training in 2014
At-risk-of-poverty gap, by age group
Ease of doing business Distance to the frontier of best performance
Private equity investments as a percentage of GDP, 2014
Overall restrictiveness of authorisation schemes in the construction sector
37
37
38
38
48
50
53
56
58
LIST OF BOXES
1.1.
1.2.
2.4.1.
Investment challenges
Contribution of the EU Budget to structural change
Specific monitoring
10
12
39
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report assesses Bulgaria's economy in the
light of the European Commission's Annual
Growth Survey published on 26 November 2015.
The survey recommends three priorities for the
EU's economic and social policy in 2016: re-
launching investment, pursuing structural reforms
to modernise Member States' economies, and
responsible fiscal policies. At the same time, the
European Commission published the Alert
Mechanism Report that initiated the fifth annual
round of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure.
The Alert Mechanism Report identified Bulgaria
as warranting a further in-depth review.
margins. Nevertheless, cases of imprudent
business practices across the entire financial
sector, coupled with inefficient supervision, have
created an environment for imbalances to
accumulate. The domestic banking crisis in June
2014 revealed vulnerabilities with potential
implications for public finances and macro-
financial stability. The remaining financial sector
imbalances impede the efficiency of financial
intermediation and capital allocation in the
economy. The completion of the recently launched
reviews of the banking, insurance and pension
fund sectors will be a major step towards
strengthening the financial system and positioning
it to support the nascent recovery.
The gradual unwinding of imbalances has been
insufficient to restore private investment.
The
external position is gradually improving but net
external liabilities and gross external debt remain
large, reflecting the very high external imbalances
at the onset of the crisis. In addition, still high non-
financial corporate debt, persistent negative
inflation, an unsupportive business environment
and serious concerns about corruption further
weigh on investment and growth. Weaknesses in
the insolvency framework are an obstacle to
deleveraging and to new lending, further limiting
the appetite for investment. These factors, coupled
with the perceived risks relating to the financial
sector keep the country risk premium and thus the
cost of capital high in the economy. Bulgaria will
require further sustained reform efforts to restore
its growth potential in a way that contains
macroeconomic imbalances.
Overall, Bulgaria has made some progress in
addressing
the
2015
country-specific
recommendations.
On the fiscal front, some
measures have been taken to improve the cost
effectiveness of health care, including the
preparation of a National Health Map. Tangible
beneficial effects of this reform are expected later
this year. The authorities have embarked on a set
of wide-ranging financial sector reforms, although
challenges remain. They have amended banking
sector legislation, initiated improvements in
banking
supervision
and
launched
a
comprehensive asset quality review and stress test
of the entire banking sector. Work has also begun
on strengthening non-banking financial sector
supervision and reviewing the balance sheets of
insurers and the quality of private pension fund
The Bulgarian economy has been gradually
emerging from the crisis, but a broad-based
recovery is not yet in sight.
The necessary fiscal
consolidation moderates domestic demand and still
prevalent risks deter private investment despite
healthy net export growth and positive labour
market trends. Given the still weak potential
growth, a decline in EU fund absorption
temporarily lowers GDP growth to an estimated
1�½ percent in 2016. Growth is expected to rebound
to about 2% in 2017 as the implementation of EU
projects gathers pace once more. The crisis has
more than halved Bulgaria's rate of potential
growth thus halting real income convergence with
peer economies.
The resolution of outstanding labour market
and education sector challenges would further
underpin the recent improvement in potential
growth.
The gradual economic recovery has
spurred job creation and decreased unemployment.
Nonetheless, high long-term unemployment, low
labour market participation and high skills
mismatches point to considerable remaining
challenges for labour market and education
policies. Moreover, demographic issues, such as
outward migration and shrinking working-age
population, pose a risk to the long-term growth
potential of the economy.
Despite its demonstrated resilience, the
financial system still harbours risks.
The
banking sector withstood the first phase of the
financial crisis without the need for additional
capital support. Overall, the banking system has
managed to accumulate considerable liquidity and
capital buffers, benefitting also from large interest
1
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Executive summary
assets. The legislative changes necessary to
strengthen the supervision of pension funds have
been initiated. The transposition of Solvency II
regulation in the insurance sector was completed in
late 2015 and thus will only be assessed by the
European Commission this year. Labour market
reforms have also progressed but an integrated
approach for social groups that are marginalised in
the labour market has yet to be developed.
Moreover, a transparent mechanism for setting the
minimum wage and minimum social security
contributions still remains to be developed. The
Pre-school and School Education Act was adopted
by the Parliament in September 2015, introducing
reforms in this area. However, the non-legislative
barriers to increasing the participation of
disadvantaged children, in particular Roma, in pre-
school and primary education are not yet addressed
in a consistent manner. Improving the efficiency of
insolvency procedures remains a challenge
hindering banking sector reforms and dampening
private investment. While legislative proposals are
advancing, further steps are needed to improve the
efficiency of courts in this area.
Regarding the progress in reaching the national
targets under the Europe 2020 Strategy, Bulgaria
appears already to be well ahead of its targets in
regard to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and
increasing the share of renewable energy, and
progressing well in regard to energy efficiency.
More efforts will be needed to reach the targets on
the employment rate, early school leaving, tertiary
education, poverty, and R&D.
Risks stemming from high corporate debt
and barriers to deleveraging remain.
The
persistent
negative
inflation
makes
deleveraging more difficult and puts additional
pressure on the profitability of non-financial
corporations. Moreover, debt accumulated in
some sectors could be difficult to recover.
Given the limited progress with reforms so far,
the insolvency framework provides little scope
to reduce a still high level of corporate
indebtedness, without which new lending and
corporate investment are expected to remain
constrained.
The external position of the country as a
whole has improved further but risks
remain.
The improvement in the net external
position has been mainly driven by a structural
improvement in the current account and has led
to a reduction in gross external debt, mitigating
risks. However, the negative level of the net
external position remains rather high and the
increasing financing needs of the government
create some new risks.
Remaining weaknesses in the labour market
continue to hinder growth and limit the
adjustment capacity of the economy.
The
structural nature of long-term unemployment, a
shrinking and ageing labour force, low labour
market participation and skills mismatches
hamper labour market adjustment, with
particular impact on youth and long-term
unemployed. Moreover, the persistently high
share of undeclared work distorts the labour
market and also reduces fiscal revenue. Despite
progress with reforms of active labour market
policies, further improvement in matching
people with vacancies is hindered by poor
prioritisation, targeting and sustainability of
measures in this area. More broadly,
outstanding challenges related to integration of
Roma into the labour force, school-to-work
transitions and unemployment benefits
coverage hinder progress in this area.
Other key structural issues analysed in this report
and pointing to particular challenges for Bulgaria
are the following:
The pension system is estimated to be on a
sustainable path but almost one-half of the
The main findings of the in-depth review
contained in this report and the related policy
challenges are as follows:
The performance of the financial sector as a
whole has stabilised, but risks remain.
Banking sector liquidity and profitability has
improved, but a more robust assessment of the
resilience of the sector can only be made based
on the results of the upcoming asset quality
review and stress test, which are expected
towards late summer. Vulnerabilities in the
non-banking sector have been identified by the
authorities but have yet to be addressed.
2
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Executive summary
elderly remain at-risk-of-poverty or social
exclusion.
The various pension reforms have
made old-age pensions more dependent on
individual contribution records. This makes
labour-market reforms to support longer
working lives crucial for future pension
adequacy. Moreover, the number of persons on
invalidity pensions continues to grow adding to
the future pool of potentially vulnerable.
The healthcare system faces major
challenges, including limited accessibility,
low funding, and poor health outcomes.
Moreover, Bulgaria also faces the challenge of
retaining qualified health professionals, who
are enticed by more attractive alternative
options. Long-term care services for the elderly
and the disabled appear ill prepared for the
rapid demographic change the country is
currently undergoing.
The education system has limited capacities
to include vulnerable groups and equip
learners with relevant skills.
Children from
families with lower socio-economic status,
particularly from Roma families, appear not to
enjoy
equal
educational
opportunities,
including early childhood education. This has
longer-term implications on their social
inclusion and employability. Participation in
vocational education remains high but quality
and cooperation with business and social
partners appear insufficient. Newly-adopted
legislation and strategies in education and
training have not yet been translated into
concrete measures.
The high share of people living at-risk-of-
poverty or social exclusion remains a major
economic and social challenge.
The high-risk
groups include children, the Roma and people
living in rural areas. The social protection
system (including the general minimum
income) does not seem to provide adequate
levels of support and the activation of people
on social benefits remains low. The
fragmentation of the agencies that support
these groups continue to hamper an effective
co-ordinated response to this challenge.
Challenges persist regarding the business
environment.
An unstable legal framework
and low trust in the judicial system hinder
private investment. Furthermore, corruption
remains an important concern in Bulgaria and
the response of the national authorities
continues to be hampered by weak and
fragmented
institutions.
The
slow
implementation of reforms in the areas of
public administration and e-government
prevents significant improvements in the
business environment. Furthermore, the
outstanding weaknesses of the public
procurement system limit the use of the
European Structural and Investment Funds.
Insufficient access to finance and lack of
appropriate framework conditions for R&D
investment
hamper
innovation
and
competitiveness. Delays with critical structural
reforms in key sectors such as energy could
further impede competitiveness.
3
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1.
SCENE SETTER: ECONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Graph 1.2:
GDP per capita and total GDP relative to
peers (including Bulgaria) (
1
)
Growth drivers and outlook
Growth is expected to pick up in 2017 after a
dip in 2016, but the slack in the economy
remains.
Output grew by over 2% year-on-year in
the first three quarters of 2015, supported mainly
by a strong rise in net exports and public
investment. According to the European
Commission Winter Forecast 2016, real GDP is
expected to have grown by 2.2% in 2015 and
moderate to 1.5% in 2016 as EU-funded
investment dip, before picking up to 2.0% in 2017.
Household consumption is projected to continue to
increase moderately in 2016 and 2017 supported
by modestly improving labour market conditions
and wages. Net exports are projected to support
growth throughout albeit at a diminishing rate
(Graph 1.1). Nevertheless, unemployment remains
high and the economy stays below its potential
throughout.
Graph 1.1:
Real GDP growth by demand components
4.2
4.1
4.0
%
forecast
%
76
74
72
70
3.9
3.8
3.7
68
66
64
62
3.6
60
3.5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Share of GDP at constant prices in peers total (lhs)
GDP per capita in PPS* relative to peers average (rhs)
58
* Purchasing Power Standards
Source:
European Commission
15
%
forecast
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Income convergence can restart only if the
growth potential is strengthened.
The crisis hit
the economy hard. It reduced the rate of potential
growth significantly albeit probably from an
unsustainably high level before the crisis. Capital
accumulation, particularly in the corporate sector,
declined significantly and total factor productivity
plummeted. Although the still excessive
indebtedness of the corporate sector is decreasing,
private investment remains low and the banking
sector has not yet fully addressed the problems it
accumulated during the crisis. While activity rates
are gradually improving, they cannot yet
counterbalance the strong decline in the labour
force. The potential growth rate is currently
estimated at around 2%, well below what is needed
for tangible income convergence and poverty
reduction.
Prices
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Inventories investment
Consumption
Real GDP growth
Source:
European Commission
Investment (GFCF)
Net exports
The recovery has not so far been strong enough
to support economic convergence with regional
peers.
Compared with peer economies (
1
),
Bulgaria has significantly underperformed since
the outbreak of the crisis in terms of both GDP
growth and GDP per capita (Graph 1.2).
(
1
) BG;CZ;EE;LV;LT;HU;PL;RO;SI;SK.
Inflation is still at a historic low.
A deflationary
trend has prevailed since the middle of 2013 as a
result of declining international commodity prices,
sluggish domestic demand and reductions in
administered prices. Inflation is projected to stay
negative throughout 2016 and below the EU
average. However, a depreciated euro and the
European Central Bank’s quantitative easing,
together with tight labour market conditions should
provide some upward pressure, given that the
currency is pegged to the euro. Despite strong
deflation in consumer and producer prices, the
4
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
GDP deflator increased in 2015, mostly due to the
positive effect of terms of trade gains (Graph 1.3).
Nevertheless, a low inflationary environment
makes it more difficult for the private sector and
the government to reduce their debt ratios because
of slow nominal GDP and income growth (see
Section 2.4).
Graph 1.3:
HICP, GDP deflator and Producer price index
(PPI)
Graph 1.4:
Employment and GDP - levels compared to
2008
104
102
100
98
96
94
2008=100
15
%
forecast
92
90
10
88
86
5
84
82
0
Employment
GDP
-5
Source:
European Commission
-10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
HICP
GDP deflator
PPI
Source:
European Commission
Labour market
The labour market recovery is stable but
modest because of persistent structural
problems (Graph
1.4). Following the initial
labour shedding, the economy has not been able to
absorb the available supply of labour because of
structural issues, including the employability
effects of long-term unemployment and skills
mismatches. The incidence of long-term
unemployment continues to grow despite overall
employment gains. This points to its structural
nature and the low activation capacity of labour
market policies, hampered by their limited
prioritisation and targeting. Youth unemployment
and inactivity are particularly important challenges
in this regard.
Rapid population ageing and substantial
outward migration help to keep unemployment
on a declining path but reduce growth potential
and contribute to skills shortages.
The
unemployment rate fell to 9.6% over the first three
quarters of 2015, slightly above the EU average. A
continued modest increase in employment,
projected to reach an annual 0.5% in 2017,
together with an ongoing decline in the labour
force is expected to further drive down the
unemployment rate, to 8.8% in 2017.
Wage developments and tax policies have not
helped faster job creation, particularly for low-
skilled workers.
Following a particularly steep
rise in real compensation per employee in 2012-13,
the increase in real wages stayed above
productivity growth also in 2014 (Graph 1.5). In
the absence of sufficient relative wage adjustment,
labour shedding hit predominantly the low-skilled.
Their situation was also aggravated by the fact that
they were disproportionally employed in sectors or
jobs most exposed to the crisis. This group is
further disadvantaged by regressive labour taxation
including social security contributions. The system
of the minimum social security contributions
thresholds is particularly binding for some low-
skilled workers, driving their tax burden higher.
5
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Graph 1.5:
Real compensation per employee, labour
productivity and real unit labour costs
Graph 1.6:
At-risk-of-poverty for total population and
groups
190
index
2000=100
forecast
50
% of
population
170
40
150
30
130
20
110
10
90
0
EU
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Real compensation per employee
Real productivity per person
Real unit labour cost
BG
EU
BG
EU
BG
EU
BG
EU
BG
Total
Children
18-64 yrs
Low skilled Rural areas
18-64 yrs
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source:
European Commission
Source:
European Commission
External environment
Poverty and social exclusion
Bulgaria continues to face one of the highest
levels of poverty and income inequality in the
EU.
Both have long term implications for welfare
and economic prosperity, and risk negatively
affecting health, educational attainment and
employment prospects. Children, Roma, the low-
skilled and residents of rural areas are among the
groups most affected by poverty (Graph 1.6).
Despite the continuously increasing minimum
wage and rises in median incomes, the income of
the richest 20% is almost seven times higher than
that of the poorest 20%. In Bulgaria, the
relationship
between
the
socioeconomic
background and educational performance of pupils
is strong. In a context of high poverty and
inequality, this may hinder human capital
development. Improving the educational outcomes
of Roma has macroeconomic importance, as they
account for over 20 % of new labour market
entrants (
2
).
(
2
) Laat, J. and C. Bodewig, Roma Inclusion is Smart
Economics - Illustrations from Bulgaria, Czech Republic,
Romania and Serbia. ECA: World Bank, 2011.
External imbalances are diminishing, but given
their extent before the crisis Bulgaria will need
more time to fully work them off.
The net
international investment position relative to GDP
improved further in 2015, reaching -64% in mid-
2015, an improvement of over 30 percentage
points since its peak in 2009 (Section 2.4).
The surpluses in current and capital accounts
have been the main driving force behind this
improvement.
Economic growth has been largely
export-driven, with sustained gains in export
market
shares.
Moreover,
non-financial
corporations underwent a rapid shift from being
large net borrowers to net lenders, reflecting the
need to reduce their high indebtedness. Surpluses
in the capital account, mostly reflecting the inflow
of EU funds, also helped improve the net
international investment position (Graph 1.7).
6
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Graph 1.7:
50 % of GDP
Net international investment position
Graph 1.8:
Current account developments
20
10
0
% of GDP
0
-50
-10
-100
-20
-30
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Net portfolio invest., equity and investment fund shares/units
Net portfolio invest., debt securities
Other invest. (net)
Net direct invest.
Net financial derivatives
Net portfolio invest., debt securities
Net int'l investment position
Marketable debt (portfolio debt instr., other invest. and res. assets, net)
-150
-40
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Capital account (KA)
Secondary income balance
Primary income balance
Trade balance - services
Trade balance - goods
Trade balance
Current account balance (CA)
Net lending/borrowing (CA+KA)
Merged BPM5/ESA95 - BPM6/ESA2010 (reserve assets
excluded
Source:
European Commission
Source:
European Commission
The current account continued to improve in
parallel with the gradual recovery since 2013,
reflecting the structural nature of the
improvement.
The current account recorded a
surplus in 2014, for the second consecutive year.
Owing to lower international energy prices and
fiscal consolidation constraining imports, the
surplus is forecast to have increased to 1.9% of
GDP in 2015. The projected positive terms of trade
gains will supports a continuous improvement in
the current account in 2016 and 2017 (Graph 1.8).
The improvement in the net international
investment position was mostly driven by the
reduction in net external debt.
This declined
from around 46% of GDP in 2009 to around 7% of
GDP in mid-2015. Net foreign direct investments
remained more stable, decreasing from 89% to
81% of GDP in the same period.
Gross external debt has also declined but
remains high, particularly for non-financial
corporates
(Graph 1.9). The gross external debt to
third parties of the non-financial corporate sector
— relative to GDP — decreased from 32% in 2009
to 27% in 2015. Cross-border intra-company
lending remained broadly stable, at around 39% of
GDP. The reduction comes mainly from short-term
debt. The reliance of commercial banks on foreign
financing was however largely eliminated.
7
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Graph 1.9:
Decomposition of gross external debt
Financial sector
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
% of GDP
Intercompany lending
Banks long term (incl. CB)
Other Sectors long term
Government long term
Banks short term (incl. CB)
Other Sectors short term
Government short term
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
The banking sector seems to have stabilised
since the liquidity crisis in mid-2014.
Public
confidence in banks has strengthened, deposit
flows have normalised and the profitability of the
banking sector has improved. The liquidity of the
banking sector increased significantly following
the pay-out from the deposit insurance after the
collapse of KTB bank in 2014, as people re-
deposited the money they received from the
deposit insurance (some 4.3% of GDP). At the
same time, regular deposit flows increased
strongly and private sector lending stagnated.
Remaining asset quality problems in certain parts
of the system — particularly the lack of adequate
diversification, connected lending and related-
party transactions — continue to pose significant
challenges to the supervisory authority. There
remain similar problems in certain parts of the
insurance and pension fund industries as well.
The authorities have taken decisive action to
address the remaining challenges.
The Bulgarian
National Bank and the Financial Supervision
Commission, in close cooperation with European
institutions, have launched comprehensive third-
party reviews of the banking, pension fund and
insurance sectors. Conducting these reviews
according to best international practices and, based
on their results, taking the necessary follow-up
actions are crucial to removing remaining systemic
risks and helping the financial system to support
the nascent economic recovery. Moreover, in
response to the weaknesses identified by the joint
IMF/World Bank Basel II Core Principles
assessment, the Bulgarian National Bank has
drawn up a plan to reform and develop supervision
of banks, and has already taken important steps to
implement it.
Despite these encouraging improvements,
private sector lending continues to stagnate.
Corporate credit growth has come to a halt since
2010 reflecting both supply and demand-side
issues. The central bank introduced disincentives
for banks to hold excess cash reserves, but in the
absence of a significant pick-up in economic
growth, private sector lending is expected to
remain muted in the near-term. An unsupportive
business environment and deleveraging pressures
are a burden on corporate credit demand and limit
borrowing.
Public finance
The budget deficit deteriorated significantly in
2014, but started to improve in 2015.
The sharp
deficit increase in 2014, to 5.8% of GDP from
0.8% in 2013, was largely driven by the support to
the financial sector related to the repayment of the
guaranteed deposits in the Corporate Commercial
Bank (KTB). The deficit is expected to have
improved to 2.5% of GDP in 2015. The favourable
fiscal developments in 2015 reflect higher
revenues due to enhanced tax compliance and also
some savings on the expenditure side. In 2016, the
deficit is expected to improve further to 2.3% of
GDP. The temporary fall in the absorption of EU
funds and its adverse impact on investments is
planned to be partly counterbalanced by public
investments from one-off revenues related to the
concession of the Sofia airport. The reliance on
temporary one-off revenues however results in a
deterioration of the structural deficit. In 2017,
measures already adopted are projected to reduce
both the headline and the structural deficit.
The general government gross debt is expected
to increase from 18% of GDP in 2013 to above
30% in 2017.
This significant increase reflects not
only the financing of the still-sizeable budgetary
deficit but also some one-off items. These include
the debt issued to support the stabilisation of the
financial sector via a liquidity scheme and the pay-
out of guaranteed deposits in 2014.
8
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Graph 1.10:
5-year Credit Default Swaps spread in selected countries, basis points
300
400
250
350
200
300
150
250
100
200
50
150
0
Jan 14
HU
Source:
Bloomberg
100
Jul 14
SK
CZ
Jan 15
PL
Jul 15
RO
BG
Jan 16
HR (rhs)
Vulnerability to shifts in investor sentiment has
increased.
The spreads on Bulgaria’s Credit
Default Swaps (
3
) are higher than those of most
peers. This points to a relatively higher risk
premium that investors charge, pushing up
financing costs for financial and non-financial
companies as well as for the government.
Moreover, the volatility of the spreads has
increased notably since mid-2014, implying an
increased vulnerability to shocks and shifts in
investor sentiment.
(
3
) A Credit Default Swap is a financial product that protects
the buyer in case of non-payment by the debtor.
9
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1604561_0014.png
1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Box 1.1:
Investment challenges
Section 1. Macroeconomic perspective
The investment share in GDP in Bulgaria is currently in line with ratios in other Member States that joined
the EU since 2004, and with the EU average. However, it has declined substantially since the 2009 crisis,
from a peak of 33.5% of GDP in 2008 to 21% by 2014, as all types of investment contracted. It is forecast to
decrease further to 19.5% in 2017. Private investment has been the main driver of the post-crisis decline in
gross fixed capital formation. This has been partially offset by an increasing share of public investment,
mostly because of higher absorption of EU structural funds. Public investment is expected however to shrink
in 2016-2017 as the old programming period of EU Structural Funds comes to an end and the new one will
not yet have gathered speed.
35
Graph 1a:
Investment public and private
forecast
30
25
20
% GDP
Graph 1b:
Investment by type
forecast
35
30
25
20
% GDP
Private
Government
EU28
EU government
15
10
15
10
5
5
0
06
07 08 09 10 11
Other GFCF EU
Dwellings EU
Other construction BG
Equipment BG
12
13 14 15 16 17
Equipment EU
Other construction EU
Dwellings BG
Other GFCF BG
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Forecast for 2015-2017 based on a no-policy change assumption
The lines correspond with the stacked columns of EU
European Commission (AMECO and EC 2016 winter forecast)
50
%
Graph 2a:
2a FDI, private investment and loans to
NFC's
Graph 2b:
Distance to frontier
Insolvency
Start
business
100
40
30
20
10
0
-10
FDI as % GDP (negative)
-20
-30
Private investment y-o-y % ch.
Loans to NFC y-o-y % ch.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
80
60
Constr.
permits
Enforce
contracts
40
20
0
Get
electricity
Trade
cross-
border
Register
property
Pay taxes
Minority
investors
Get credit
BG
European commission
EU28 (simple average)
European Commission
Limited foreign direct investment inflows and bank lending are holding back the growth of private
investment in Bulgaria. Uncertainty and a large amount of non-performing loans restrict banks’ capacity to
expand credit and are disincentives to investment. There is also limited demand for credit, mainly due to
persistent weaknesses in the business environment.
(Continued on the next page)
10
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Box (continued)
Section 2. Assessment of barriers to investment and ongoing reforms
The Country profile on investment challenges
1
published as part of the AGS presents the barriers
to investment in Bulgaria
.
The Bulgarian government adopted in August 2015 a report
regarding the main obstacles to investment, and created 10 working groups to tackle them.
The obstacles recognised by the Bulgarian authorities cover to a large extent those identified by
the European Commission in the Country profile on investment challenges. Bulgaria has taken
some steps towards reforming the education and training systems, but the quality of education
and training systems and their inadequacy with regard to labour market needs continue to hamper
the supply of skilled workers to the economy, weighing against investment in some sectors.
In addition, significant barriers in Bulgaria persist in the areas of regulatory and administrative
burden, judicial system and insolvency framework.
Bureaucracy, corruption
2
and policy instability are considered to be among the strongest
obstacles to doing business.
Procedures are complex, lengthy and relatively costly, in particular
for enforcing contracts, trading across borders and connecting to the electricity grid. The
frequently changing regulatory framework creates uncertainty as to the business environment.
A certain lack of stable and consolidated legislation leads to legal uncertainty and non-
transparent and unpredictable procedures.
Concerns about the independence, quality and
efficiency of the judicial system, including a certain lack of predictability due to inconsistent
rulings, may hamper investment.
Lengthy insolvency procedures lead to a loss of value for both debtors and lenders.
Companies prefer to hold payables/arrears. This creates uncertainty and reduces the country’s
overall attractiveness to investors. Furthermore, the lack of procedures allowing national
companies to directly transfer their registered office in and out of Bulgaria is an additional barrier
to investment.
(
1
) Staff Working Document "Challenges to Member States' Investment Environments" SWD(2015) 400 final
(http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/challenges-to-member-states-investment-environments/index_en.htm)
(
2
) 61% of private sector managers in Bulgaria (10 percentage points more than in 2013) say that corruption is a problem
for them when doing business, compared to an EU average of 40%. Nearly 60% of companies, the highest
percentage in the EU, say that corruption prevented them from winning a public tender or public procurement
contract (up by 2 percentage points since 2013). Only 14% (the lowest percentage in the EU) say that Bulgaria
applies measures against corruption impartially (down from 23% in 2013).
11
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Box 1.2:
Contribution of the EU Budget to structural change
Bulgaria, through 10 national programmes, is a major beneficiary from European Structural and
Investment Fund (ESIF) with EUR 9.9 billion available over the period 2014-2020. This is equivalent to
3% of the GDP of the country annually and is over 57% of the expected national public investments in
areas supported by the ESI Funds for the period 2014-2016.
A number of reforms condition the efficient use of funds. Reforms in areas, such as the water, railway,
education, health, R&DI and labour market sectors, as well as in judiciary, public administration and
public procurement still need to be implemented rigorously by the national authorities in order to ensure
the desired impact of ESI funds. A strong and sustained commitment of Bulgaria to deliver on action
plans for ESIF ex-ante conditionalities is a prerequisite for successful implementation of cohesion policy
in Bulgaria. Where ex-ante conditionalities are not fulfilled by end 2016, the Commission may suspend
interim payment to the priorities of the programme concerned.
The programming of the Funds focuses on priorities and challenges identified in the context of the
European Semester and the Country-Specific Recommendations. In particular the funds support measures
related to active labour market policies vocational education and lifelong learning, social enterprise,
better access to health and social services for children, quality of public administration high-quality
research and innovation, e-government and the transparency of the judiciary. Bulgaria also benefits from
EUR 55 million under the Youth Employment Initiative (matched by the same amount from the European
Social Fund) supporting the provision of traineeships, apprenticeships, first job experience and start-up
support for young people not in employment, education or training. Regular monitoring on
implementation includes reporting in mid-2017 on the contribution of the Funds to Europe 2020
objectives and progress in addressing relevant structural reforms to maximise the use of EU financing.
Financing under the new European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), Horizon 2020, the Connecting
Europe Facility and other directly managed EU Funds would be additional to the ESI Funds. Following
the first rounds of calls for projects under the Connecting Europe Facility, Bulgaria has signed
agreements for EUR 37 million in the energy field, and EUR 140 million for transport projects. For more
information on the use of ESIF in Bulgaria, see:
https://cohesiondata.ec.europa.eu/countries/BG.
12
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1. Scene setter: Economic situation and outlook
Table 1.1:
Key economic, financial and social indicators
2003-2007
6.7
10.3
4.0
15.9
13.5
18.9
1.3
6.2
10.3
0.8
-4.5
2.0
2.1
2.1
-23.7
-18.5
2.9
-1.8
-46.0*
5.4*
51.1*
.
.
-25.7
-15.0
23.4
76.7
14.3
62.4
-5.0
26.8
-8.6
22.4
3.5
6.4
5.9
7.7
3.6
4.0
-2.3
2.8
3.4
18.1
9.7*
34.4
.
.
.
10.4
6.3
20.9
63.5
61.0
15.4
1.1
30.7
.
28.6
2008
5.6
3.4
-0.1
22.0
2.5
4.9
4.5
4.9
8.4
-0.6
-2.1
0.4
4.0
0.5
-21.9
-19.5
1.1
0.7
-93.3*
-10.5*
63.3*
50.5*
5.3
-15.9
-10.9
33.1
130.8
25.3
105.5
-16.0
24.9
-7.0
17.6
5.8
8.2
12.0
16.8
3.2
13.2
4.6
9.6
8.6
21.7
21.7
-1.4
13.0
11.5
4.8
5.6
2.9
11.9
67.8
44.8
8.1
1.6
30.6
.
13.0
2009
-4.2
-4.5
-9.5
-17.7
-11.7
-21.5
-1.7
1.8
-10.4
-3.1
9.4
-0.8
2.4
0.2
-8.3
-7.7
2.3
1.3
-95.5*
-6.1*
62.4*
29.2*
-4.5
-6.8
-3.8
4.7
134.1
26.9
107.2
1.9
29.4
-4.9
-21.0
4.7
4.0
2.5
8.1
-2.6
10.9
6.6
8.6
4.0
21.7
21.7
1.1
17.5
8.7
11.5
6.8
3.0
15.1
67.2
46.2
6.9
-4.1
27.2
.
13.7
2010
0.1
0.3
-1.9
-17.7
17.2
4.1
-1.8
0.0
-5.0
-0.1
5.2
-1.6
1.3
0.4
-0.9
-2.3
1.1
0.8
-93.2
-9.5
66.9
25.5*
-2.6
-2.5
-6.1
3.7
134.3
26.3
108.0
6.2
29.6
-4.2
-12.3
2.7
1.2
3.0
9.9
4.1
5.6
4.3
3.1
-2.9
20.9
20.9
-8.9
16.5
8.3
17.9
10.3
4.7
21.9
66.7
49.2
8.0
-3.2
26.4
-2.5
15.5
2011
1.6
1.0
1.9
-4.4
11.5
8.5
-0.4
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.4
-1.4
1.2
0.4
0.9
0.6
3.9
1.2
-83.4
-2.5
58.9
27.7*
11.5
-2.9
-4.5
1.3
125.3
24.0
101.3
7.0
30.3
-3.4
-9.6
2.3
6.9
3.4
6.8
3.9
2.8
-3.8
4.4
1.0
21.6
21.6
4.6
14.9
4.7
19.7
11.3
6.3
25.0
65.9
49.1
11.0
-2.0
25.5
-1.8
15.3
2012
0.2
3.3
-0.5
1.8
0.8
4.5
-0.5
0.4
2.4
0.2
-2.3
-1.3
1.2
0.4
-0.3
-2.9
-2.2
1.3
-78.4
3.6
59.5
15.3
-5.3
-2.6
-9.8
3.0
125.7
23.3
102.4
5.9
30.0
-5.1
-5.3
1.7
1.6
2.4
7.7
2.8
4.8
3.2
1.4
-2.0
21.6
21.6
11.4
14.6
3.6
19.8
12.3
6.8
28.1
67.1
49.3
12.5
-0.6
26.7
-0.5
17.6
2013
1.3
-1.4
2.2
0.3
9.2
4.9
-0.1
0.9
-0.5
-0.8
2.6
-0.8
1.2
0.4
1.8
-0.4
-0.5
1.1
-73.5
6.3
57.4
13.4
6.3
-3.0
-1.6
7.2
132.2
23.2
109.0
6.2
29.5
-1.9
0.4
1.7
-0.7
0.4
8.8
1.7
7.0
7.8
8.3
0.1
21.6
21.6
5.2
15.0
4.1
18.6
13.0
7.4
28.4
68.4
48.0
13.0
-0.8
28.0
-0.8
18.0
2014
1.5
2.7
0.1
3.4
-0.1
1.5
-0.3
1.7
2.5
0.2
-1.1
0.1
1.2
0.5
1.2
-0.5
1.2
2.2
-72.1
8.9
62.4
13.95
-2.4
-2.0
.
-0.4
124.3
22.6
101.7
.
.
.
1.5
1.6
0.4
-1.6
5.6
1.2
4.4
3.9
4.4
-0.7
21.6
21.6
7.6
18.5
1.7
.
11.4
6.9
23.8
69.0
40.1
12.1
-5.8
27.8
-2.5
27.0
2015
2.2
0.7
0.3
0.4
5.7
3.2
-0.2
1.9
0.6
0.0
1.6
0.3
1.1
0.6
.
.
1.3
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.1
-1.1
3.9
.
2.0
0.9
-1.1
-3.1
.
.
.
.
.
.
10.1
.
.
.
.
.
-2.5
29.2
-2.3
28.2
forecast
2016
1.5
1.4
1.2
-2.1
4.4
3.2
-0.7
1.9
0.6
0.0
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.6
.
.
1.0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.5
-0.1
4.0
.
2.9
1.3
1.7
0.8
.
.
.
.
.
.
9.4
.
.
.
.
.
-2.3
29.3
-2.8
29.7
2017
2.0
1.7
1.3
0.5
4.8
4.1
-0.8
2.0
1.3
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.9
0.8
.
.
0.4
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1.5
0.9
2.5
.
1.1
-0.4
.
-1.7
.
.
.
.
.
.
8.8
.
.
.
.
.
-2.0
29.5
-1.7
30.7
Key economic, financial and social indicators - Bulgaria
Real GDP (y-o-y)
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Public consumption (y-o-y)
Gross fixed capital formation (y-o-y)
Exports of goods and services (y-o-y)
Imports of goods and services (y-o-y)
Output gap
Potential growth (y-o-y)
Contribution to GDP growth:
Domestic demand (y-o-y)
Inventories (y-o-y)
Net exports (y-o-y)
Contribution to potential GDP growth:
Total Labour (hours) (y-o-y)
Capital accumulation (y-o-y)
Total factor productivity (y-o-y)
Current account balance (% of GDP), balance of payments
Trade balance (% of GDP), balance of payments
Terms of trade of goods and services (y-o-y)
Capital account balance (% of GDP)
Net international investment position (% of GDP)
Net marketable external debt (% of GDP)1
Gross marketable external debt (% of GDP)1
Export performance vs. advanced countries (% change over
5 years)
Export market share, goods and services (y-o-y)
Net FDI flows (% of GDP)
Savings rate of households (net saving as percentage of net
disposable income)
Private credit flow (consolidated, % of GDP)
Private sector debt, consolidated (% of GDP)
of which household debt, consolidated (% of GDP)
of which non-financial corporate debt, consolidated (% of
Corporations, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of
GDP)
Corporations, gross operating surplus (% of GDP)
Households, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of
GDP)
Deflated house price index (y-o-y)
Residential investment (% of GDP)
GDP deflator (y-o-y)
Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, y-o-y)
Nominal compensation per employee (y-o-y)
Labour productivity (real, person employed, y-o-y)
Unit labour costs (ULC, whole economy, y-o-y)
Real unit labour costs (y-o-y)
Real effective exchange rate (ULC, y-o-y)
Real effective exchange rate (HICP, y-o-y)
Tax wedge on labour for a single person earning the average
wage (%)
Taxe wedge on labour for a single person earning 50% of
the average wage (%)
Total Financial Sector Liabilities, non-consolidated (y-o-y)
Tier 1 ratio (%)2
Return on equity (%)3
Gross non-performing debt (% of total debt instruments and
total loans and advances) (4)
Unemployment rate
Long-term unemployment rate (% of active population)
Youth unemployment rate (% of active population in the
same age group)
Activity rate (15-64 year-olds)
People at-risk poverty or social exclusion (% total
Persons living in households with very low work intensity
(% of total population aged below 60)
General government balance (% of GDP)
Tax-to-GDP ratio (%)
Structural budget balance (% of GDP)
General government gross debt (% of GDP)
(1) Sum of portoflio debt instruments, other investment and reserve assets
(2,3) domestic banking groups and stand-alone banks.
(4) domestic banking groups and stand alone banks, foreign (EU and non-EU) controlled subsidiaries and foreign (EU and
non-EU) controlled branches.
(*) Indicates BPM5 and/or ESA95
Source:
European Commission, winter forecast 2016; ECB
13
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2.
IMBALANCES, RISKS, AND ADJUSTMENT ISSUES
This section provides the in-depth review foreseen under the macroeconomic imbalances procedure
(MIP) (
4
). It focuses on the risks and vulnerabilities flagged in the Alert Mechanism Report 2016. The
section analyses the reasons behind the imbalances in the financial sector, looking into the banking
sector, the private pension funds industry as well as the insurance industry, as these remain a source of
macroeconomic risks. Secondly, it analyses the issues of corporate debt and deleveraging, as these are
linked to vulnerabilities regarding private sector indebtedness. It also discusses the insolvency
framework, given its adverse impact on corporate deleveraging and financial stability. Thirdly, the
section covers the labour market issues which are limiting a balanced adjustment. Subsequently, it
discusses external indebtedness as it remains a source of vulnerability. The section concludes with the
MIP assessment matrix which summarises the main findings.
2.1
FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
adequacy ratio of the banking system reached 20.5
% of the risk-weighted assets at end-September
2015, some 0.5 percentage points higher than at
the end of 2014 (see Graph 2.1.1). The size of the
capital buffers is positively affected by growing
pre-tax profits. Still, it should be noted that banks’
performance in 2015 continued to be marked by
notable heterogeneity: seven of the 28 banks
reported losses for the year, while in nine others
return on assets was less than half of the system
average. Asset quality indicators also improved, as
the ratio of non-performing loans fell over 2015
while the coverage of these loans by loan-loss
provisions increased (see Graph 2.1.2), reflecting
mainly developments in the corporate portfolio.
Relatively high capital buffers and increased loan-
loss impairments provide some measure of comfort
ahead of the system-wide asset quality review and
stress test.
The banking sector seems to have stabilised
since the liquidity crisis in mid-2014.
Following
the large deposit withdrawals that resulted in a
liquidity crisis in the two biggest domestically-
owned banks (
5
), depositor behaviour has steadied.
The authorities put forward an ambitious plan to
address the significant supervisory shortcomings
that these events revealed. Although the
implementation of this plan is still in an early stage
(see
Banking supervision
below), it has helped
restore confidence. Household deposit inflows
resumed, albeit at a slower pace than before. While
depositor behaviour suggests that confidence in the
banking system remains strong, there has been a
notable increase in risk averseness, reflected in an
increased preference for larger foreign banks. As a
(
5
)
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-2124_en.htm
Despite significant improvements since the
liquidity crisis in mid-2014, the banking sector
remains a potential source of macroeconomic
risks and imbalances.
Public confidence in the
banking system appears to have recovered, while
banks’ liquidity and profitability has on aggregate
improved. Nevertheless, issues related to the asset-
quality of certain parts of the system, particularly
the lack of adequate diversification and the
existence of connected lending and related-party
transactions, continue to pose significant
challenges to the supervisor. Similar problems
persist in certain parts of the insurance and pension
fund industries as well. To address these issues, the
financial sector supervisors, in close cooperation
with European institutions, have launched
comprehensive third-party reviews of the banking,
pension fund and insurance sectors. Conducting
these reviews according to best international
practices and taking the necessary follow-up
actions thereafter are crucial to removing
remaining systemic risks and strengthen the role of
the financial system in supporting economic
recovery. Going forward, banking and non-
banking supervision would need to be strengthened
to address the potential areas where these reviews
reveal major problems. The central bank has
already taken important steps to beef up banking
supervision. Similar efforts will be needed to
strengthen non-banking supervision.
Banking sector developments
The capital adequacy of the banking system as
a whole improved further in 2015, benefiting
from sustained profitability.
The Tier I capital
(
4
) According to Article 5 of Regulation (EU) No. 1176/2011.
14
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2.1. Financial sector developments
result, the share in these banks in new deposits
increased significantly, at the expense of domestic
and Greek-owned banks (see Graph 2.1.3).
Graph 2.1.1:
Capital adequacy ratios in the banking
system
Graph 2.1.3:
Shares in new deposits in selected bank
segments, by majority ownership
100%
90%
80%
70%
25%
60%
50%
20%
40%
30%
15%
20%
10%
10%
0%
2007-10
Greek
Total capital adequacy ratio
Tier I capital adequacy ratio
2010-14Q1
2014Q2-15Q3
5%
Domestic
Large foreign-owned (tot. assets > 2 bn EUR), not Greek
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
0%
2009*
2010*
2011*
2012*
2013* 2014**
Q3
2015**
* Ratio according to the now repealed Ordinance 8
** Ratio according to Regulation (EU) 680/2014
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
Graph 2.1.2:
Asset quality indicators for the banking
system, % of gross loans
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
11
12
13
14
15
The profitability and liquidity of the banking
sector as a whole has improved.
The pre-tax
return on assets reached 1.2 % in 2015, up from 1
% in 2014 (see Graph 2.1.4). Gross income
increased by 6.9 % mainly due to higher net
interest income, reflecting a significant decline in
funding costs. The decrease in funding costs for
banks resulted from a combination of the pass-
through of the low-yield environment on
international markets, increasing share of
overnight deposits indicating preference by firms
and households to achieve higher liquidity of their
funds at the expense of a lower yield, and the
revocation of KTB bank’s banking license (see
Graph 2.1.5) (
6
). The system-wide ratio of
administrative costs to gross income remained
relatively unchanged compared to 2014 at 44.3 %,
just below the long-term average.
(
6
) KTB had employed an aggressive policy to attract deposits
by offering high interest rates, which affected the market
rates. The impact of KTB on the market is suggested by the
sharp change in the deposit rate curve in Graph 2.1.2 after
the bank was placed in special supervision and stopped
accepting new deposits in June 2014.
Loans overdue by 30 to 90 days
Loans overdue by 90 to 180 days
Loans overdue by 180 days or over
Impairment costs
Figures exclude claims on the central bank. End-of-year
data.
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
15
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1604561_0020.png
2.1. Financial sector developments
Graph 2.1.4:
Pre-tax return on assets, %
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
credit to firms recovered relatively quickly to its
pre-2009 level, while the flow to households is still
in a process of very slow recovery (see Graphs
2.1.6 and 2.1.7). But the stock of credit has
remained largely stable, indicating that — for the
system as a whole — new loans have merely
replaced or refinanced maturing loans.
Graph 2.1.6:
Credit dynamics in firms (BGN million)
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
900
700
500
0.0%
300
Four-quarter moving sums
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
100
-100
Graph 2.1.5:
Effective interest rates and net interest rate
margin for commercial banks
-300
Monthly flow of new loans
Monthly change in stocks
12%
10%
Change in stocks reflects the removal of KTB from the
statistics in November 2014
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
8%
Graph 2.1.7:
Credit dynamics in households (BGN million)
6%
500
4%
2%
400
0%
300
200
Margin
Deposits stocks
Loan stocks
100
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
Private sector lending, however, continues to
stagnate.
Following a period of very rapid growth
before the global financial crisis, the expansion of
credit to both firms and households has come to a
halt since 2010. This persisting trend reflects
issues with accumulated excessive leverage and
weak economic performance, weighing on credit
demand, as well as increased risk averseness by
banks, which have to deal with a significant stock
of legacy non-performing loans in an environment
of inefficient insolvency procedures. The flow of
0
-100
Monthly flow of new loans
Monthly change in stocks
Change in stocks reflects the removal of KTB from the
statistics in November 2014
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
Since the end of 2014, the banking sector has
been operating in an environment of
16
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1604561_0021.png
2.1. Financial sector developments
extraordinary liquidity.
In addition to the
resumption of the flow of retail deposits, the level
of liquid assets in the banking system was boosted
by the pay out of BGN 3.7bn guaranteed deposits
following the declaration of insolvency of KTB.
As domestic lending remained muted, the ratio of
liquid assets improved to 36.7 % at end-2015, up
from 29.9 % at end-2014 and 27 % at end-2013. (
7
)
The extraordinary levels of liquidity were
maintained across the board and, according to the
BNB, all banks maintained liquidity ratios of at
least 20 %, significantly higher than the effective
regulatory minimum of 9.21 %.
The level of reserves held at the central bank
reached record-high levels.
Faced with limited
domestic investment opportunities and decreasing
returns on investment abroad, banks deposited
their excess liquidity at the BNB. The trend was
reinforced by the ECB setting an increasingly
negative
interest
rate
on
its
deposit
facility. Moreover, macroprudential action by the
BNB in the beginning of 2015 with a view to
further reducing spill-over risks from instability in
Greece (
8
) resulted in banks repatriating significant
amounts of foreign assets, which was used mainly
to repay foreign liabilities and to further increase
reserves at the central bank. As a result,
commercial banks’ reserves expanded sharply and
approached EUR 7bn or 14 % of the banking
sector’s gross assets by December 2015, while the
level of excess reserves (over EUR 3.5bn in early
December 2015) covered nearly two times the
minimum reserve requirement (see Graph 2.1.8).
Added to the impact of strong gains in currency in
circulation and the government’s fiscal reserve, the
balance sheet of the BNB’s Issue Department (
9
)
increased to over EUR 20bn in the second half of
2015. The coverage of the domestic-currency
component of the narrow-money aggregate M1 by
the assets of the currency board thus rebounded to
over 170 % in Q2 2015 before moderating to 161
% at end-November 2015 (see Graph 2.1.9). To
protect its increased balance sheet from losses
resulting from the depressed yield environment
(
7
) Ratios expressed according to the BNB’s Ordinance 11 on
Liquidity Management and Supervision of Banks.
(
8
) See also Economic Review 2/2015, Bulgarian National
Bank
(
9
) Under the currency board arrangement, the Issue
Department is mandated to hold the BNB’s international
reserves.
abroad, the BNB introduced a legal definition of
excess reserves and a negative interest rate on
these reserves when the European Central Bank’s
deposit facility rate is negative. While this action
will decrease banks’ incentive to store excess
liquidity at the central bank, it is not likely to result
in significant changes in banks’ risk-taking
behaviour, also in view of the upcoming asset-
quality review and stress test of the entire system.
Graph 2.1.8:
Commercial banks’ reserves at BNB
25%
9
8
20%
7
6
15%
5
4
10%
3
5%
2
1
0%
0
Share in total assets, lhs
EUR bn, rhs
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
Graph 2.1.9:
Currency board assets and coverage
300%
25,000
250%
20,000
200%
15,000
150%
10,000
100%
5,000
Cover. of domestic currency component of mon. base, lhs
Coverage of monetary base, lhs
Assets EUR bn, rhs
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
Consolidation started in the banking sector in
2015 and this process can be expected to
17
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1604561_0022.png
2.1. Financial sector developments
continue in the coming years.
In the second half
of 2015, the Eurobank subsidiary acquired the
Alpha Bank branch, thus creating the fourth
biggest bank in the country in terms of total assets.
Further changes in the ownership structure of the
banking sector can be expected to take place in the
coming years. Banks with Greek ownership might
be affected in light of developments in their parent
institutions. In view of the significant size of the
subsidiaries with Greek ownership (some 20 %
market share in 2015), their divestment may pose
supervisory challenges and result in significant
changes to the structure of the banking sector. The
BNB management has suggested that structural
changes in the coming years may take the form of
consolidation with bigger players taking over some
of the smaller and less efficient ones (see Graphs
2.1.10 and 2.1.11).
Graph 2.1.10 :
Market shares in terms of assets, by
ownership
Graph 2.1.11:
Cost efficiency and size of banks operating in
Bulgaria
120%
Average cost-to-income ratio, 2009-15
80%
40%
R² = 0.7106
0%
0
10000000
20000000
Total assets, Q4 2015
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
Banking supervision
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
11
12
Domestic
13
Greek
14
Other
15
Source:
Bulgarian National Bank
In response to the weaknesses identified by the
joint IMF/World Bank Basel II Core Principles
assessment, the Bulgarian National Bank has
set up a plan to reform and develop supervision
of banks.
The list of measures, including a
concrete timetable, has been adopted by the BNB
and covers six specific areas: i) governance model;
ii) reorganisation of the banking supervision
department; iii) regulatory framework; iv)
preventive supervisory measures and bank
resolution; v) IT and communication support; and
vi) coordination and information exchange (
10
). In
line with the proposed timing, some measures —
most notably the establishment of a fully-fledged
Off-site Supervision Directorate — were already
implemented in the final quarter of 2015. The plan
to reform and develop banking supervision is an
ambitious project and an important building block
of the BNB’s overall strategy of strengthening its
credibility. An equally important part of that
strategy is the asset-quality review and stress test
for the banking sector, preparatory work for which
has also started (see next section). In the second
half of 2016, on the basis of the findings of the
asset-quality review and stress tests, the IMF and
(
10
) The text of the Plan can be found on the BNB website:
http://www.bnb.bg/bnbweb/groups/public/documents/bnb_
pressrelease/pr_20151005_1_a1_en.pdf.
18
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1604561_0023.png
2.1. Financial sector developments
the World Bank are to carry out a comprehensive
assessment (
11
) of the state of the banking sector.
In the area of governance, it has been decided in
October 2015 that the internal rules and
guidelines regulating the supervisory activities
will be approved by the BNB Governing
Council.
The Governing Council will receive, on
an on-going basis, quarterly reports on the
supervisory monitoring of banks. In order to
further improve the transparency of the
supervisory process, an internal audit of the
compliance with the rules and procedures will be
submitted annually to the Council. Thus, the duty
to enforce observance with the established
procedures is carried collectively by the BNB
Governing Council. The responsibility for
applying these procedures, as well as for taking
supervisory actions, remains, however, an
exclusive prerogative of the Deputy Governor in
charge of banking supervision.
The re-organisation of the supervision
department aims at strengthening its capacity
and independence.
In addition to setting up a
separate off-site supervision directorate, an internal
advisory council has been established. The council
will include senior management from the various
directorates of the department, with the view to
considering all aspects and implications of
supervisory measures in a broader context. The
newly created directorate will be staffed with 42
additional members, which will increase its
capacity by approximately 50 %. In addition, the
principle of automatic rotation of supervisory
teams every two years has been introduced.
Legislative amendments to expand the powers
for imposing supervisory measures are expected
to be prepared by March 2016.
Two new powers
are being envisaged: the ability to replace senior
management figures in the banks and the ability to
replace banks’ external auditors. The BNB will
conduct a full review of ordinances, internal rules
and guidelines and will bring them into
compliance with the Basel principles by September
2016. In particular, it has been identified already
that two separate guidelines, on off-site inspection
and on special supervision, will need to be
developed. In addition, a supervisory review and
(
11
) Financial Sector Assessment Programme
assessment manual, consistent with the decisions
of the European Banking Authority on common
procedures and methodologies, will be adopted by
the same deadline.
In the area of preventive supervisory measures
and bank resolution, a new Bank Resolution
Directorate outside the Banking Supervision
Department has been established.
The BNB
envisages specifying the requirements and
processes of preparation and approval of banks’
recovery plans by December 2015. Thereafter, the
rules and procedures for early intervention are to
be set up by March 2016. The Bank Recovery and
Resolution and Deposit Guarantee Schemes
Directives have already been enacted in national
legislation. In this context, the special supervision
intervention
arrangement
(conservatorship)
remains available, but is completely reformed. Its
duration is reduced to one month only, and is
meant to be used as a very temporary measure
before a bank is liquidated. Together with the new
requirement to determine deposits’ unavailability
within five days, these legal changes should
eliminate the likelihood that depositors lose access
to their deposits for a long period of time, as
happened in the case of the Commercial
Cooperative Bank (
12
).
The IMF/World Bank Basel II Core principles
assessment
found
weaknesses
in
the
identification of risk associated with breach of
concentration limits and related party
transactions.
Regarding related party transactions,
the concept of relatedness has been expanded to
economic, rather than exclusively legal, relations.
While an escalation of supervisory measures has
already been possible under the current regulatory
framework, no changes are envisaged to strengthen
the enforcement of compliance. The BNB prefers
to retain discretion based on supervisory judgment
rather than relying on automatically triggered
penalties. Moreover, the expanded regulatory and
supervisory powers will not include sanctions for
banks that are systematically late in the publication
of their audited accounts.
(
12
) In 2014, more than five months elapsed between the
decision to put the Commercial Cooperative Bank under
special supervision and the activation of the deposit
guarantee scheme.
19
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2.1. Financial sector developments
Asset-quality review and stress test for banks
The authorities have taken the necessary
procedural steps to launch the exercise.
The
BNB signed a contract with Deloitte Bulgaria to
assist it in carrying out the asset-quality review,
including the preparation of the methodology on
the basis of the one used by the ECB in the 2014
Comprehensive Assessment, and the subsequent
stress tests. The process so far follows the timeline
laid out by the authorities in the 2015 National
Reform Programme. The review of the assets of
the individual banks has started and the findings
are expected to be communicated to the public in
August 2016.
Private pension funds industry
may not fully reflect the valuation, which could be
achieved at an arm’s length transaction. The rest
of the funds focus on securities traded on the
international capital markets. Those investments
yield lower returns compared to the domestic ones.
However, those lower returns are also
accompanied by lower volatility in valuations.
Should the identified risks materialise, they
could have important implications for public
finances in the future.
Bulgaria's pension funds
industry is relatively young and significant pay-
outs have not yet started. The first cohort of
pensioners to rely on a private pension would only
retire after 2020 and people who have contributed
to the system for the full duration of their careers
would retire only after 2040. Nevertheless, issues
related to valuation of investments and the
resulting volatility of net assets could lead to a
situation where different funds are able to pay-out
different amounts to pensioners, with some paying
much lower amounts given the same contribution
level. It should be noted that the system operates as
a defined-contribution system and the risk of
underperformance
lies
fully
with
those
contributing to the funds. However, such a
situation could have significant adverse
implications for public finances, either directly
through the need to replace pension income or
indirectly through the need to provide from the
public purse other social assistance and services to
those affected.
The authorities have recognised the risks in the
private pension funds sector and initiated an
independent third-party review of the funds’
assets.
The pension funds supervisory authority
has identified risks related to the existing
definitions of related parties and control, as these
do not fully capture relatedness in the economic
sense, and has proposed changes to the definitions.
The planned third-party review of assets — if it is
completed by applying the highest international
standards — could be helpful in revealing all
possible risks stemming from relatedness,
concentration and overvaluation of assets. The
follow-up actions to the results of this review,
expected in the second half of 2016, will be crucial
for ensuring the sector’s stability going forward.
The private pension funds operating in the
country are the largest non-banking segment of
the financial sector.
Mandatory contributions
from all employees born after 1960 have been
collected for over a decade, increasing the total
assets of pension funds to around 10 % of GDP.
Legislative amendments introduced in 2015 allow
workers to transfer their individual accounts
between a private pension fund and the national
pay-as-you-go scheme. The future development of
private pension funds’ assets would strongly
depend on the popularity of this newly introduced
option. At present pension funds are one of the
important institutional investors on the domestic
capital market. They provide fresh financing to
domestic businesses, assuming the respective
benefits and risks of doing so.
The main risks in the private pension funds
industry are similar to those in the banking
sector.
Risks related to related-party transactions
and concentration of investments can also be
identified in the pension funds industry. The assets
held by pension funds reveal different strategies
employed by the pension insurance companies
managing them. Some place the majority of their
funds on the domestic market. In addition to
government bonds, holdings include corporate
stocks and bonds, mutual funds and special
investment purpose companies. Given the low
liquidity and limited free-float of the instruments
listed on the domestic stock exchange, those
investments carry a higher risk compared with
more liquid financial markets. Also the value of
such instruments, implied by the market quote,
20
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2.1. Financial sector developments
Insurance industry overview
The Bulgarian insurance industry is growing
rapidly and could be an important source of
risk for the financial sector.
The insurance sector
is relatively underdeveloped as compared with
other EU countries
—
assets of the insurance
companies totalled EUR 3.1 billion (7 % of GDP)
in mid-2015, while total (life and non-life) gross
written premiums were just under 2 % of GDP in
2014 (see Graph 2.1.12). At end-October 2015,
there were 38 registered non-life insurance
companies, of which eight are branches of foreign
insurers. There were 18 registered life insurance
companies, including three branches. Despite the
high number of firms, five big insurers hold half of
the non-life market in terms of premiums written
and the life insurance market is even more
concentrated. The large number of small
companies implies risks in terms of their ability to
fully comply with the regulatory requirements and
their ability to secure sufficient additional capital
in line with those regulations. (
13
)
Graph 2.1.12:
Insurance market evolution (total assets in
BGN million)
7000
Health insurance companies
Reinsurance companies
General insurance companies
Life insurance companies
deepening and increased penetration of financial
markets led to rapid growth of the insurance
sector, as assets expanded by some 55 % between
2009 and mid-2015. In the pre-crisis period, the
sector was dominated by general insurance, most
notably motor vehicles and mandatory third-party
liability insurance. The overall proportion of those
two segments in general insurance is around 70 %.
However, significant differences between insurers
can be observed. Some diversify between motor
and non-motor insurance, while others focus
almost exclusively on motor insurance, and even
on third-party liability insurance alone. Such
differences imply different risk profiles and
different market strategies, which could be an
additional source of risk for the sector. The life
insurance segment has grown more quickly in the
post-crisis period, possibly reflecting the
heightened risk perception of individuals.
Profitability of some insurance segments is low
and could suggest some under-pricing practices.
Some evidence of under-pricing could be found for
the insurance of motor vehicles, with observed
gross combined ratios of over one (1.39 for land
vehicles and 1.02 for motor third party
liability). (
14
) Other segments with high gross
combined ratios include insurance for ships, travel
assistance and legal expenses. The importance of
these segments is limited compared with motor
insurance.
The authorities have recognised the risks
present in the insurance sector and have
initiated an independent third-party review of
market participants.
Similar to the actions taken
in the banking and pension funds sectors, the
authorities have taken the first steps towards
organising a review and stress tests of the balance
sheets of insurers operating in the country. The
results of this review, expected in the second half
of 2016, would be followed up by actions
envisaged in the Solvency II Directive and should
ensure the stability and competitiveness of the
insurance sector.
(
14
) The combined ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of
incurred losses and expenses by the income received by
premiums written. It measures the profitability of insurance
segments, excluding the income received from investments
in assets.
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
Source:
BNB
Rapid growth of the industry may have led to
the build-up of imbalances, similar to those in
other sectors in the pre-crisis period.
The
(
13
) Very small insurers fall outside the scope of the Solvency
II regime. This is the case for insurers with gross annual
premium income of less than EUR 5 million and technical
provisions below EUR 25 million.
21
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2.2. CORPORATE DEBT AND DELEVERAGING
Corporate indebtedness
Non-financial corporate debt is the main source
of vulnerabilities regarding private sector
indebtedness.
The debt of non-financial
corporations stood just above 101 % of GDP in
2014 and is much higher than household debt of 23
% (Graph 2.2.1). Businesses rapidly expanded
their balance sheets in the pre-crisis period, which
lead to a considerable increase in their liabilities.
Following some deleveraging in 2011-2012,
corporate debt increased in 2013 but declined
again in 2014. Given that a large portion of the
expansion took place in the construction and real
estate sector, the collapse in asset prices during the
crisis is likely to have left some businesses
overburdened by the debt they took on to expand.
Inefficiencies of the insolvency framework, which
are described in more detail in the section below,
limit debt work-out and increase the uncertainties
surrounding the assessment of corporate balance
sheets.
Graph 2.2.1:
Private sector debt, consolidated
200
Gross operating surplus declined both nominally
and as a proportion of value added and GDP in
2013 — the first negative inflation year — and
recovered only slightly in nominal terms in 2014,
while still decreasing as a share of value added
(Graph 2.2.2). Bottom-line profitability of
corporates also seems to be affected and is further
hit by debt servicing costs.
Graph 2.2.2:
Profitability of non-financial corporations
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
% of value
added
00
% of GDP
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Gross entrepreneurial income
Gross operating surplus
Retained earnings
Retained earnings, EU28
150
Source:
European Commission
100
50
Firm- and industry-level data reveals pockets of
vulnerability and risks to debt sustainability in
parts of the corporate sector.
A cross section of
non-financial corporations by debt leverage and
profitability (
15
) shows that a third of the Bulgarian
(
15
) The results on the distribution of corporate debt are based
on a firm-level dataset from the Bureau Van Dijk's Orbis
database. The data refer to the fiscal year 2014, which on
the date of the download (January 2016) were available in
Orbis for a large majority of firms, but not for all.
Subsidiaries of resident companies with consolidated
financials were excluded to avoid double-counting. Firms
operating in finance and insurance, public administration,
health and social services, and education, were excluded.
Debt is defined as the sum of loans and non-current
liabilities. Capital employed is the sum of debt and equity.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and
amortisation (EBITDA) are directly taken from the
database. The thresholds for debt/capital employed (70 %
and 90 %) and the debt/EBITDA (6x and 12x) are
approximately equal to the 75th and 90th percentile across
the pooled sample of firms from fifteen EU countries
(which include vulnerable and core countries). Reported
figures represent the share of debt held by firms in a given
solvency bucket, as a percentage of the total amount of
debt.
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Financial corporations
Household
Private sector EU28
MIP Threshold
Government
Non financial corporations
Private sector
Source:
European Commission
Persistent negative inflation puts an additional
burden on those non-financial corporations that
need to reduce their over-indebtedness.
As
described in the scene setter above, inflation has
been in negative territory since mid-2013.
Consumer and producer prices have fallen as a
result of both low international commodity prices
and some country-specific factors like changes to
regulated prices. Lower prices put pressure on
corporate revenues and the ability to service debt.
22
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2.2. Corporate debt and deleveraging
companies, included in the dataset, are vulnerable
to adverse developments as they are both highly
leveraged and not sufficiently profitable (see Table
2.2.1). Thus, capital appears to have been
misallocated into unproductive undertakings.
Additionally, creditors of those companies may not
be able to fully recover the debt extended to those
companies, which in turn could worsen the
financial situation of the lenders. The industries
facing the highest debt sustainability risks include
construction, real estate, hotels and restaurants and
other
business
services
(Graph
2.2.3).
Unsurprisingly, these industries saw the most
significant inflow of investments in the pre-crisis
period and so have the highest likelihood of capital
misallocation. The risks identified above further
highlight the need for a well-designed and well-
functioning insolvency framework, to enable a
smooth debt work-out process and minimise the
destruction of value.
Table 2.2.1:
Corporate debt ratios (2014 data)
lending requirements have tightened in the post-
crisis period and are likely to tighten further
following the banking sector troubles of 2014.
Graph 2.2.3:
Sustainability risks by sector (2014 data)
%
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
Low
Medium
High
Source:
Orbis database
Debt/EBITDA
>12
6x to 12x
< 6x
12.4
7.4
32.8
6.5
3.2
6.7
25.2
4.1
1.7
> 0.9
<0.7
0.7 to 0.9
Debt/Capital employed
Source:
Orbis database
Weak credit demand seems to be an important
driver of credit trends; however, in some
sectors, credit supply could also be an issue.
Lending rates have decreased throughout the post-
crisis period. Nevertheless, credit demand has been
very weak and mostly focused on refinancing of
existing liabilities. New financing has been
extended only in some export-oriented sectors,
including manufacturing and professional services
(linked to the expanding business process
outsourcing sector). The weak demand for funding
is in line with the slow overall economic recovery,
weak domestic demand and the accumulated high
debt stocks. Credit supply has been less affected as
a robust deposit growth, linked to risk aversion and
increasing remittances, has provided commercial
banks with sufficient liquidity, as discussed in
section 2.1. Still, pockets of the economy,
including the small and medium enterprises sector,
as well as the construction industry, could suffer
from limited credit supply due to the overall high
risk profile of the domestic economy. Banks'
Developments in other economic sectors have
been more benign but some risks are still
present.
Household debt increased quickly from
2 % of GDP in 2000 to 27 % of GDP in 2009.
Although at a relatively low level in a peer
comparison, it should be noted that the income
distribution of Bulgarian households is rather
dispersed. Thus, it is likely that some households
face deleveraging needs in the post-crisis period,
while others are able to bear the burden and even
take on more debt. Financial corporations did not
significantly increase their debt as a proportion of
GDP in the pre-crisis period and have been able to
reduce it further since. The public sector also kept
its debt levels relatively stable. However, deficits
incurred over 2014-2015 — together with one-off
borrowing to provide liquidity support to banks
and to lend funds to the deposit insurance — led to
a rapid increase in government debt, from 18 % in
2013 to 30 % in 2015.
Liabilities of state-owned corporations could
have important implications for the economy as
a whole.
State-owned enterprises in the energy and
transport sectors have experienced financial
difficulties in recent years. More specifically, the
National Electricity Company, part of the
Bulgarian Energy Holding, has generated
23
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1604561_0028.png
2.2. Corporate debt and deleveraging
significant losses and incurred liabilities towards
the parent holding company. So far, the energy
holding has been able to finance those, through
profits generated in other companies, such as the
nuclear power plant in Kozloduy and the
Electricity System Operator, as well as through
borrowing on international markets. However, in
the last year, the energy holding has faced
difficulties securing external financing to repay
obligations of the electricity company. Creditors
have demanded a state guarantee for their loans,
which for the moment has not been provided. The
state railway operator has also faced difficulties
servicing its debt and a state guarantee has been
activated by the creditors in order to recover their
loans. Those two examples highlight the
interconnectedness of economic sectors and the
risks posed by contingent liabilities both to public
finances and overall macroeconomic stability.
Insolvency framework
Although the sale of the business as a going
concern — in the course of the insolvency
proceedings and based on an approved
restructuring plan — is explicitly allowed, pre-
pack sales (i.e. arrangements under which the sale
of all or parts of a company’s business or assets is
negotiated with a purchaser 'before' the
appointment of an insolvency administrator) are
not permitted. Moreover, the restructuring plan
may only cover existing claims, but may not
provide for new financing. At the same time,
Bulgarian law does not provide for any discharge
periods for entrepreneurs, as suggested in the 2014
Commission recommendation. (
16
) If an individual
entrepreneur was declared insolvent and
unsatisfied creditors remained after the termination
of the insolvency proceedings, the entrepreneur
would be subject to certain legal limitations for
subsequent business activities.
Weaknesses are also present as regards
consumer debt resolution.
The concept of
‘consumer over-indebtedness’ does not exist and
bankruptcy of individuals other than individuals
who are registered as sole traders is not allowed.
Although Bulgaria is considering introducing
legislation that would allow individuals other than
sole traders to be discharged of their debts, the
progress in developing such new legislation is very
slow. Hence, consumer debt deleveraging through
personal insolvency tools is not possible in
Bulgaria.
The authorities are aware of currently existing
inefficiencies in national pre-insolvency and
insolvency frameworks and of their adverse
impact on corporate deleveraging and financial
stability; they have presented various policy
initiatives.
They include: 1) introducing expedited
restructuring proceedings through a fast-track
court approval procedure of pre-agreed
agreements; 2) introducing a sound framework
providing out-of-court debt restructuring and
preventive procedures; and 3) ensuring the
interconnectivity between courts as regards the
register of insolvencies, improving the data quality
of the trade register and strengthening the
supervision of auditing companies. Addressing
(
16
) Commission Recommendation 2014/135/EU of 12 March
2014 on a new approach to business failure and insolvency,
OJ L 74, 14.3.2014, p. 65-70.
The main motivation for addressing insolvency
frameworks at the current time is the high level
of private sector debt.
Insolvency frameworks
could help to address the issues linked to high debt
in a number of ways. First, by freeing up resources
caught in unproductive activities, effective
insolvency frameworks contribute to reducing the
adverse effects of high private debt on economic
activity. Second, they can mitigate deadweight
costs linked to bankruptcies by providing a
transparent and speedy process to resolving non-
viable debt. Third, before the event, insolvency
frameworks shape the incentives that govern
decisions both to provide credit and to borrow to
invest. Finally, after the event, once a debtor has
become insolvent, the framework determines how
much value is recovered for the creditor and how
quickly debtors are released from their obligations.
The current Bulgarian insolvency framework
has several weaknesses, notably the long time to
process insolvency cases and the low recovery
rate. In addition, there is a tendency for
procedures to end in the liquidation of
companies rather than restructuring.
Under
Bulgarian law, debtors do not have access to a
preventive restructuring framework that would
facilitate the rescue of companies outside formal
insolvency proceedings. Bulgarian insolvency law
only provides possibilities for restructuring after
the insolvency proceedings have been opened.
24
 swd (2016) 0072 - Ingen titel
2.2. Corporate debt and deleveraging
these challenges would also be essential for
dealing with the new problem loans that the
upcoming asset-quality reviews in the financial
sector will reveal.
The authorities are currently working on the
implementation of several initiatives.
First, draft
amendments to the Commerce Act, aiming to
introduce a pre-court insolvency procedure for
companies facing financial difficulties, are under
preparation and expected to be submitted to the
National Assembly shortly. Discussions focus on
the key issue of addressing the rights of those
creditors who decide not to enter the settlement
agreement on a voluntary basis. Second,
amendments to the procedure for selecting and
overseeing the trustees in bankruptcy/insolvency
cases have been prepared. Third, the authorities
also envisage amendments to the regulations on
court procedures in insolvency and bankruptcy
cases.
Strengthening of the judicial infrastructure for
insolvency cases is in progress but further steps
are needed to improve the efficiency of courts in
this area.
The envisaged amendments to the
Commerce Act will need to be complemented by
improvements in the infrastructure of the judicial
system. This is so as to effectively improve the
speed and efficiency of the insolvency process. In
October 2015, a new electronic system for random
case allocation that takes into account the
complexity of the cases and the workload of the
judges was launched in all courts. It aims to
provide a transparent, objective and efficient
distribution of cases. Work is ongoing to complete
the interconnectivity between the Commercial
Registry and the document management systems
of courts, enabling the automatic submission of all
court acts in insolvency procedures. Further steps
were taken on providing staff training and
additional court space. However, congestion and
inefficiencies in some of the biggest courts in the
country call for swift action on increasing capacity
and specialisation, and on balancing out the
currently uneven workload of judges.
Efforts are also needed to improve the quality
of the trade register and to strengthen
supervision of auditing companies.
The
authorities are currently drafting new legislation on
independent financial auditing, which will
transpose Directive 2014/56/EC on statutory audits
of annual accounts and consolidated accounts.
Regarding data quality in the trade register, the
authorities
are
developing
additional
functionalities of the trade registry to speed up the
submission process of annual financial reports next
year. The impact of administrative penalties for not
submitting the annual financial reports remains to
be assessed.
25
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1604561_0030.png
2.3. LABOUR MARKET
Labour market adjustment: employment and
unemployment developments
Graph 2.3.1:
Unemployment rate and potential additional
labour force
Employment rate developments point to a
gradual improvement in the labour market.
The
employment rate (aged 20-64) has increased by 1.6
percentage points. In 2014 to 65.1% and continued
to rise during 2015, with 68.8% in the third quarter
of 2015. Employment growth was primarily driven
by the growth in the agricultural sector, together
with a slight improvement for the services sector.
This does not augur particularly well for future
growth given the low and poor prospects for
productivity in the agricultural sector. Overall, the
employment gains have benefited population
groups above 25 years old thus challenges remain
regarding youth employment. At 22.6% in the
third quarter of 2015, which is about 12 percentage
points lower than the EU average, the youth
employment rate remains particularly low.
Employment rate challenges remain for other
groups too, such as low-skilled older workers
(31.5%), rural area residents (55%) and Roma
(22%)(
17
).The employment prospects of these
groups were severely hit during the crisis, and had
already been low due to structural cumulated
disadvantages. This is a structural challenge and
threatens the effective labour market adjustment.
The unemployment rate fell and stood at 9.6 %
over the first three quarters of 2015, just
slightly above the EU average.
Despite
improvements, unemployment rates are not yet
back to pre-crisis levels. The increase in
employment together with the expected reduction
of the labour force is projected to contribute to a
further fall in the unemployment rate to 9.4 % in
2016 and 8.8 % in 2017. Important challenges,
however, remain as a large proportion of the
population remains on the edge or outside the
labour market (see Graph 2.3.1).
30
% of labour
force
25
20
15
10
5
0
06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1
Unemployment rate
Underemployed
Discouraged
Seeking but not available
Source:
European Commission
The incidence of long-term unemployment
continues to grow despite overall employment
gains, pointing to its structural nature and the
low activation capacity of labour market
policies.
This reflects reduced job creation, a
decline in job finding rates, continuously low
labour demand and very high skills mismatches.
Long-term unemployment constitutes about 60 %
of total unemployment (age group 20-64), one of
the highest rates in the EU. Only about 14 % of
those who were long-term unemployed in 2013
were able to find a job in 2014, whereas 60 % of
them remained unemployed (
18
). The latter share
— persistent long term unemployment — is the
third highest in the EU (after Greece and
Slovakia). In 2014, every fifth long-term
unemployed person was aged 55 or more, and
every third was low-skilled. Close to 60 % of the
long-term unemployed were men, highlighting a
decline in economic activity in such sectors as
manufacturing and construction, and the policy
challenge ahead for reintegration into the labour
market. This development points to limited
activation measures. Big gaps in the coverage of
long-term unemployed arise from the very low
registration rates with the public employment
(
18
) European Commission (2016), Employment and Social
Developments in Europe, 2015
.
(
17
) Roma Inclusion Index 2015, Decade of Roma inclusion
secretariat foundation, 2015.
26
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1604561_0031.png
2.3. Labour market
service (
19
) and the lack of structured cooperation
and data exchange between employment and social
authorities. Bulgaria is piloting Centres for
Employment and Social Assistance, which is a
new model of integrated social and employment
services.
Bulgaria's labour productivity is the lowest in
the EU and the gap between wages and
productivity has reached its highest level in
2014.
Real wages increased significantly faster
than productivity in 2012 and 2013 and somewhat
faster than productivity in 2014, in part due to
negative inflation. Real productivity per person
was on a steady but slow increase during the
period. As a result of these trends, the gap between
wages and productivity (see Graph 1.8) in 2014
was at its widest, pointing to the prevailing labour
market tightness and hampering income
convergence prospects. Productivity improvements
are important in order to maintain competitiveness
amidst a shrinking labour supply and pressures on
wages.
The shrinking and ageing labour force and low
labour market participation may challenge the
adjustment capacity of the economy in the long-
run.
Bulgaria is expected to continue experiencing
immense demographic pressures, leading to a
projected decline of population by another 2.3
million by 2080 (
20
). On top of that, the share of
those aged 65 or more is forecasted to rise by
approximately 50% over the next 45 years at the
expense of those 15-64 years old. The rapidly
ageing Bulgarian population is contributing to
fewer people in the job market and a lower
unemployment rate. The important outward
migration, possibly coupled with brain drain, poses
an additional challenge.
The available information suggests that the
share of the undeclared economy in Bulgaria is
high in comparison with other EU Member
States.
Undeclared work reduces fiscal receipts
and generally keeps productivity low. Two
government agencies are the main authorities
(
19
) Only 40 % of long-term unemployed were registered in
2014.
(
20
) BG has suffered one of the biggest population contractions
in the world, falling from almost 9 million to around 7.2
million over a generation, with net birth and net migration
both contributing roughly equally.
fighting undeclared work. The General Labour
Inspectorate is dealing with the application of
labour legislation and the National Revenue
Agency is responsible for state revenue collection.
Measures to tackle undeclared work include
enhancing the powers of supervisory bodies,
increasing
penalties,
introducing
one-day
contracts, and improving risk assessment and data
sharing. Separate and joint inspection campaigns
have only led to temporary compliance at best.
Efforts to foster voluntary compliance and change
attitudes towards undeclared work remain limited
in scope (
21
).
Labour market adjustment: labour cost and
productivity developments
Labour costs remain the lowest in the EU
despite recent increases.
In 2014, average hourly
labour costs in the whole economy (excluding
agriculture and public administration) were still at
the lowest level recorded across the EU but saw an
increase of 3% since 2013. The rise in the total
labour costs is predominantly due to the rise in
employer-paid social contributions and other
employer-paid labour costs. While wages and
salaries have also increased slightly, their share in
total labour costs shrank to 84% in 2014. Labour
costs grew most within the industry (except
construction) sector, but remained constant for the
services sector. This left the latter with the highest
labour costs in the economy (not in itself a
problem given its higher productivity).
Growth in nominal wages was stronger than
predicted, based on economic fundamentals
such
as
inflation,
productivity
and
unemployment (see Graph
2.3.2
and
2.3.3)
(
22
).
If the trend continues, this could indicate a
possible risk to balanced growth and
competitiveness. However, the faster-than-
predicted nominal wage growth could be partially
explained by the presence of Balassa-Samuelson
(
21
) Dzhekova R. and C. Williams (2014). Tackling the
Undeclared Economy in Bulgaria. University of Sheffield.
22
( ) As measured by the wage benchmark calculation, with
more details on methodology provided in Arpaia, A. and
Kiss, A. (2015). Benchmarks for the assessment of wage
developments: Spring 2015. Analytical Web Note 2/2015.
DG Employment and Social Affairs, European
Commission.
27
 swd (2016) 0072 - Ingen titel
1604561_0032.png
2.3. Labour market
effects (
23
), as productivity growth was still higher
in tradable than in non-tradable sectors spurring
income and wage convergence across the
economy.
Graph 2.3.2:
Wage growth
0.2
%
Graph 2.3.3:
Yearly growth in nominal costs
18
16
14
12
10
8
%
forecast
0.2
6
4
0.1
2
0
0.1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Nominal compensation per employee
Nominal unit labour cost
0.0
Source:
European Commission
-0.1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Benchmark 1: Predicted nominal wage growth
Actual nominal wage growth
Source:
European Commission
(
23
) The Balassa-Samuelson effect reflects on differentiated
productivity growth during convergence with wage growth
in tradable sectors spurring wages to grow faster than
productivity in non-tradable ones. This leads to nominal
ULC growth in non-tradable sectors and, consequently, the
whole economy.1) IMF (2014). Central and Eastern
Europe: New Member States (NMS) Policy Forum, 2014:
Selected Issues. (2) Dubravko, M. and Klau, M. (2008).
Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the
Balassa-Samuelson effect revisited. Bank for International
Settlements.
The average wage dynamics mask important
differences in overall wage distribution, with
the coverage and level of the minimum wage
increasing significantly.
The level of the statutory
minimum wage is decided by the Council of
Ministers after (non-binding) consultations with
social partners under the National Council for
Tripartite Cooperation. As there are no rules or
guidelines on the setting of the minimum wage, the
frequency of updates varies considerably. From
2011 to 2016, the statutory minimum wage was on
the rise. Nevertheless, it continues to be — both
nominally and in terms of purchasing power
standards — the lowest in the EU (Graph 2.3.4). In
addition to increases in the level, its coverage has
doubled, adding to the importance of raising the
skills of workers. Preliminary (short-term)
estimations by the Bulgarian authorities suggest
that about 360 000 people will be covered by the
minimum wage in 2016 or about 12 % of the
labour force. This leads to compression of the
wage distribution curve, given the continuously
growing proportion of employees earning the
minimum wage. The social partners have been
consulted on a possible mechanism to set up the
minimum wage, but there is wide disagreement
among them as regards the relevant criteria. The
government is considering the possibility of
introducing, as of 2017 at the earliest, sector-
specific minimum wages to be negotiated by the
social partners.
28
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1604561_0033.png
2.3. Labour market
Graph 2.3.4:
Minimum wage as a percentage of average
earnings
Graph 2.3.5:
Tax wedge in Bulgaria and the EU, income
levels as % of average wage, 2014 (single
earners)
60
55
%
70
60
50
%
50
45
40
35
40
30
20
10
30
0
25
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
EU max
2015
0,5
0,67
1
1,25
1,67
Level of earnings as share of average wage
Bulgaria
EU min
EU average
EU max
EU min
Bulgaria
Source:
European Commission
The tax wedge shows the proportional difference between
the costs of a worker to their employer and the employee’s
net earnings.
Source:
European Commission, OECD
Increasing labour productivity growth would
lead to further gains for the economy and
employment.
The steady but low increase in
labour productivity is due to, among others factors,
the untapped potential of various population
groups (e.g. youth, older workers), a relatively
high degree of skills mismatch in the labour
market, a high share of employment in low
productivity sectors and wider economy
deficiencies. The financial crisis led to labour
losses
that
affected
the
low-skilled
disproportionately more, and also had an impact on
rises in labour productivity. This gain will be
reversed as employment rates rise again.
Nevertheless, most employment gains in the last
decade occurred in the lower productivity sectors
of industry and services (
24
). Further productivity
gains are feasible and necessary in these sectors.
(
24
) The World Bank (2015). Productivity in Bulgaria: Trends
and Options.
Hindrances to labour market functioning: Tax
burden
Fiscal disincentives to work remain relatively
low. However, minimum social security
thresholds may lead to regressive taxation for
some low-paid groups.
The design of minimum
social security thresholds could lead to cases of a
de facto
higher tax burden for low-wage earners,
when actual wages are below the relevant
minimum social security thresholds (Graph 2.3.5).
Moreover, the maximum insurable income – on
which social contributions is charged – of about
EUR 1 300 (nearly 3 times the average wage) will
continue to be maintained. Over the last years the
minimum social security threshold were on the
rise, broadly following but above average-wage
growth rate, partially due to the statutory minimum
wage rising faster than the average wage, as by
default the threshold cannot be lower than it. The
10% flat income tax rate explains why the tax
burden on labour (including social contributions) is
considerably below the EU average and among the
lowest in the Central and Eastern European EU
Member States, especially for middle and high
income earners. Due to such tax design and in
combination with modest levels of social
assistance, pecuniary disincentives to work are
relatively low.
29
 swd (2016) 0072 - Ingen titel
1604561_0034.png
2.3. Labour market
Hindrances to labour market functioning: Skills
mismatches
The ongoing high levels of skills shortages and
mismatches hinder the adjustment capacity of
the labour market.
Participation of vulnerable
groups in education is low and the share of early
school leavers remains above the EU average. The
rate of lifelong learning is one of the lowest in the
Union. On the positive side, Bulgaria has made
progress in raising its tertiary attainment rate (age
group 30-34) in recent years, although it remains
below the EU average (BG: 30.9% in 2014 versus
EU-28: 37.9%). Bulgaria has the second highest
skills mismatch in the EU (
25
), albeit gradually
decreasing due to the change in the skill
composition of the population. Employers are
increasingly stating labour as a limiting factor (
26
),
which – among other aspects such as decreasing
working age population or geographical allocation
of the labour force – also points to the existing
mismatch between skills and labour market needs.
Low-skilled have experienced the highest rise in
mismatches (Graph 2.3.6), as measured by the
change in the demand-supply gap (
27
). There have
been no improvements in employment rates of
lower-qualified individuals: older, less qualified
people leaving the job market and being replaced
by younger, more highly-qualified individuals.
Employers report skills shortages in specific
sectors. The main reason for bottleneck vacancies
in high-skilled occupations is lack of available
qualified workforce (IT personnel (
28
), engineers,
specialist doctors, nurses). This situation of
demand outpacing the supply is further aggravated
by outward migration. In lower skilled
occupations,
bottleneck
vacancies
occur
(
25
) Measured in terms of employment rate dispersion across
education levels. Employment rate dispersion is a skills
mismatch indicator commonly used to identify whether
skills mismatch plays a role in explaining structural
unemployment. For more information, see Kiss, A.,
Vandeplas, A. (2015) Measuring Skills Mismatch, DG
EMPL Analytical Web Note 7/2015.
(
26
) European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys,
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys
/time_series/index_en.htm
(
27
) Measured in terms of proportions of the skills gaps in the
supply for the corresponding skill levels weighted with the
proportions of the low-, medium and high-skilled in the
working age population (aged 15 to 74 years).
(
28
) The demand for software specialists is three times higher
than the supply by educational institutions (2000 as against
6000 needed per year), with a trend to increase in medium
and long term.
particularly in the accommodation and food
services activities. These bottlenecks are most
likely to be driven by unfavourable conditions
(including low wages) and inconvenient working
hours.
Graph 2.3.6:
Skills mismatches measured by dispersion
rates and mismatch gaps
30%
0,27
0,27
0,26
0,25
0,24
0,24
0,23
6%
25%
5%
20%
15%
4%
10%
3%
5%
0%
2%
Mismatch gap high-skilled
Employment dispersion
Mismatch gap middle-skilled
Mismatch gap low-skilled (rhs)
Source:
European Commission
Disparities in the labour market
Improving school-to-work transitions remains a
key challenge, with almost three-quarters of the
young NEETs (
29
) being inactive.
Bulgaria still
faces a high NEETs rate (20.2%, well above the
EU average of 12.4%). The inactive youth NEET
rate in Bulgaria in 2014 was 14.4% as compared to
6% in the EU (see Graph 2.3.7). The proportion of
NEETs (16-24) among Roma is very high (61%)
(
30
). Young people are often not eligible for
unemployment benefits and therefore often not
registered with the Employment Agency. The
NEET phenomenon continued to be significant for
young people with lower and medium educational
levels. It potentially indicates the limited market
relevance of the non-tertiary education systems. In
parallel, the youth unemployment rate, while
falling consistently for over 2 years, still stood at
21% in Q3-2015 and above the EU average of
20.1% (see Graph 2.3.8).
(
29
) Neither in employment nor in education or training
(
30
) Fundamental Rights Agency Roma Survey 2014
30
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1604561_0035.png
2.3. Labour market
Graph 2.3.7:
Activity, employment and unemployment,
NEET and long-term unemployment rates
45
40
%
%
70
68
66
64
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
62
60
58
56
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Activity rate (rhs)
Unemployment rate (lhs)
Long-term unemployment rate (lhs)
Youth unemployment rate (lhs)
NEET rate (lhs)
0
against early school leaving, higher education
reform and local partnerships for enhancing
outreach. The Public Employment Service (PES)
has taken some measures to strengthen outreach to
non-registered NEETs, by organising job fairs and
working at local level with youth and Roma
mediators. Results are still limited. The young
NEETs registered with PES benefit from
individual action plans. The PES is in contact with
the educational establishment to identify young
people in danger of dropping out of school and to
support higher education graduates. However,
most of the measures target young people with
secondary or tertiary education, with less focus on
low skilled youth. This is particularly worrying as
the proportion of low-skilled Roma NEETs is high
and targeted actions still remain limited.
Other groups, such as Roma, women and older
workers face challenges on the labour market.
Improving the employability of Roma is of
macroeconomic relevance, as they account for
over 20% of the new labour market entrants (
31
).
However, only 37% of Roma men and 25% of
Roma women are employed (
32
); the majority have
unskilled jobs. Many of them work without a
formal contract. Low qualifications, ethnic
discrimination and the important role played by
informal social networks in finding a job are the
main barriers for Roma to access the labour market
(
33
). Furthermore, the limited inclusiveness of early
childhood education and care hinders social
inclusion and labour market prospects of children
from ethnic minorities, in particular Roma.
Childcare services remain underdeveloped, with
only 11% of children less than 3 years old were
cared for under formal arrangements for more than
30 hours a week, significantly below the Barcelona
target of 33%. Therefore, parenthood has a
significant impact on female employment, as the
difference in employment rates between mothers
with young children and those without the
presence of children is 13.5% in 2014 (age group
20-49; as compared with the EU average of
(
31
) Laat, J. and C. Bodewig, Roma Inclusion is Smart
Economics - Illustrations from Bulgaria, Czech Republic,
Romania and Serbia. ECA: World Bank, 2011
(
32
) Roma from Romania, Bulgaria, Italy and Spain between
social inclusion and migration. Comparative Study, EU
Inclusive, 2012.
(
33
) World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic, Bulgaria's
Potential for Sustainable Growth and Shared Prosperity, 29
July 2015
Source:
European Commission
Graph 2.3.8:
Youth: in education and training,
employment rate, unemployment rate, NEET
35
%
%
70
30
25
20
15
10
60
50
40
30
20
5
0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
NEET (lhs)
Inactive NEET (lhs)
Youth unemployment rate (rhs)
Early school leavers 18-24 (rhs)
In education, training (rhs)
10
0
Source:
European Commission
Bulgaria has taken steps to respond to the
youth unemployment challenge in the context of
the Youth Guarantee Implementation Plan, but
much remains to be done, especially for the low-
skilled.
While 2014 was the first year of actual
implementation of the Youth Guarantee, less than
half of the young people participating received an
offer in the first 4 months of their registration.
Reaching out to the most vulnerable remains a
challenge. Key measures adopted include a VET
reform, traineeship legal framework, measures
31
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2.3. Labour market
13.2%). While steps were taken in the recent
pension reform to increase and equalise the
retirement age for men and women, the low
effectiveness of active labour market policies for
older workers hinders labour market participation
and exacerbates the effect of the demographic
developments in the country.
Big disparities remain between rural and urban
areas in terms of the employment situation.
Employment in agriculture is 19.4% (
34
), the
second highest in the EU after Romania, compared
with an EU average of 5%. This, given the sector's
low productivity, is clearly a major challenge. The
gross value added of the agricultural sector as a
percentage of the GDP is only 4.6%. The high
agricultural employment share is in large part due
to high level of subsistence farming and due to
over 80% of the agricultural labour being family
labour. The high level of agricultural employment
may mask large risks of hidden unemployment and
under-employment. The rural unemployment rate
is currently twice as high in comparison to urban
areas: 14% against 6.4%. There are also notable
socio-economic disparities between regions.
Active Labour Market Policy (ALMP) and Public
Employment Service (PES) reform
performance management system also requires
improvement, to better link resources to delivery
and to provide more flexibility in delivering
services where they are needed. Limited
conditionality towards employers receiving wage
subsidies may limit the positive effects on the
long-term sustainability of the jobs.
National funding for ALMP is set to decrease as
a share of GDP according to the 2016 budget,
increasing the dependence on EU funding and
affecting the policies' sustainability.
ALMP
financing remains highly dependent on the
European Social Fund, as national contributions
remain nominally flat at about EUR 37 million
also for 2016. The ESF budget for the
programming period 2014-2020 has however
increased. Moreover, ALMP expenditure per
unemployed is still below its pre-crisis level. In
contrast, a stronger focus on ALMP can help to
ensure sustainability of the government's policies,
given the decreased adjustment capacity of the
labour market due to the existing structural issues.
The PES has now produced a blueprint for
organisational change.
Changes in the
Employment Promotion Act aim at activating the
unemployed
through
regionalisation
of
employment programmes and the targeting of
specific risk groups by regions. The reform
envisages also individualised, better targeted and
higher quality services for people with disabilities
and other vulnerable groups.
The unemployment benefits coverage is
particularly low, hindering the effectiveness of
activation measures.
Among the short-term
unemployed (<12 months), 24 % received
unemployment benefits in 2014 compared with an
EU average of 37 %. This particularly reflects a
relatively low maximum duration of benefits for
those with short work histories (in 2015 around 16
weeks for someone who has worked for up to three
years) and relatively strict eligibility conditions in
terms of qualifying periods (a qualifying period of
9 months over the last 15 months). Preconditions
are however weak with little, if any, job search
requirement placed on people receiving benefit.
This potentially risks missing opportunities to
activate some of the most job-ready unemployed.
The low coverage is also driven by high seasonal
employment and the lack of a sufficient
contributory period for the young unemployed.
Adjustment is hampered by the limited
prioritisation and targeting of ALMPs.
The PES
continues to face a challenge in delivering ALMPs,
especially to the most vulnerable clients (young
people, the long-term unemployed, the low-skilled
and the Roma). In 2013, only 12.1% of registered
unemployed (and 13% registered long-term
unemployed
were
engaged
in
ALMPs.
Furthermore, only 40% of long-term unemployed
were registered in 2014. Very low registration
rates and the lack of structured cooperation and
data exchange between employment and social
authorities create big gaps in the coverage of
support for the long-term unemployed. They are
mainly serviced by social authorities. Activation
programmes are unevenly available on a
programme basis, have limited continuity and are
not sufficiently diversified. ALMPs are focused on
employment subsidies rather than support for
training, re-skilling and up-skilling. The PES
(
34
) According to the National Accounts data available on
Eurostat.
32
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2.3. Labour market
The maximum duration of unemployment benefits
is 12 months, restricting access for the long-term
unemployed. The low coverage of unemployment
benefits — and consequently in activation
measures (
35
) — weakens the support available to
the unemployed to come back to work.
Social dialogue
The principal level of collective bargaining is
the company level, but the sectoral level also
plays an important role.
In 2012, Bulgarian
union density (measured as a proportion of paid
workers who are union members) was 17.5%,
while the employer density was around 50%.
Around 29% of employees were covered by
collective bargaining in 2012 (
36
). The importance
of the social partners is most evident in the
negotiations for setting up the minimum social
security thresholds for around 85 economic sectors
and 9 occupations. Agreed changes to the
threshold are brought into force by government
legislation. For activities where no agreement is
reached, the government reserves the right to
impose an administrative increase.
(
35
) In 2013, only about 7 % of those wanting to work
participated in regular labour market activation measures.
36
( ) ICTWSS database, version 5, 2015.
33
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2.4. EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS
International investment position
The net international investment position
(NIIP) improved further in 2015.
In the second
quarter of 2015, Bulgaria’s external liabilities
exceeded its foreign assets by around
EUR 28 billion (64 % of GDP, Graph 1.7 in
section 1). This represents an improvement of the
NIIP by 8 percentage points of GDP compared
with the end of 2014 and by over 31 percentage
points of GDP compared with the highest negative
position, reached in 2009. Thus, overall external
indebtedness has reduced substantially in the post-
crisis period (Graph 2.4.1).
The NIIP improvement is mainly driven by a
reduction in external debt but growing assets
have also contributed.
Net external debt has been
the main explanatory factor for the changes in
NIIP; it has been reduced from around 46 % of
GDP in 2009 to around 7 % in Q2-2015. Net
foreign direct investments have remained much
more stable, falling from 89 % to 81 % of GDP in
the same period. The main reason for their
reduction is the slowdown in investment flows
since 2009, outstripped by the nominal growth of
GDP. On the assets side, reserve assets held by the
central bank have gradually increased, reaching
44 % of GDP in mid-2015 compared with 34 % in
2009.
External assets are dominated by the reserves
held by the central bank under the currency
board regime.
Bulgaria’s external assets
amounted to some 84 % of GDP in mid-2015.
Reserve assets represent over 50 % of foreign
assets and include the government’s fiscal reserve,
the excess of assets over liabilities of the currency
board and the reserves of commercial banks held at
the central bank. Banks’ reserves more than
doubled in the 12 months ending in November
2015, from 7 % to almost 15 % of GDP. This in
large part reflects the extra liquidity of banks
stemming from the payout of deposit insurance
after the collapse of KTB bank (some 5 % of GDP)
which was mostly re-deposited in the system and
— in the absence of credit growth — ended up
mostly as excess reserves. For more details on
deposit and lending dynamics, see Sections 2.1.
and 2.2.
External liabilities include a large share of
foreign direct investments (FDI) but remain a
source of vulnerability.
Bulgaria’s gross external
liabilities amounted to some 148 % of GDP in
mid-2015, of which 60 % of it was accounted for
by FDI. This indicates a lower risk of rapid capital
outflows on this part of liabilities. FDI has been
the main source of funding for economic growth
and was also a factor in the asset-price inflation in
the pre-crisis period. Since 2009, FDI inflows have
slowed down noticeably but remain positive.
Nevertheless, some sources of vulnerability
remain: foreign portfolio investments, almost
exclusively in debt instruments, have nearly tripled
since 2010 and exceed 10 % of GDP. Also, foreign
loans to the domestic economy amount to over
30 % of GDP.
Graph 2.4.1:
Contributions to changes in NIIP
20
10
Change in pp. of GDP (y-o-y)
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
08Q3 09Q3 10Q3 11Q3 12Q3 13Q3 14Q3 15Q3
Valuation changes
Net transaction effect (rest FA bal.)
Investment income effect
Nominal growth effect
Change in NIIP (y-o-y)
Source:
European Commission
Returns on both assets and liabilities have been
broadly stable in the post-crisis period.
Implied
yields (
37
) could reveal important information for
the required return and risk perception of foreign
investors in the country. Also, they give an
indication of the attractiveness of investing abroad
as compared to investing in the domestic economy
for residents. Yields on domestic equity assets held
by foreigners are more than double those on
foreign assets held by residents (Graph 2.4.2). This
is consistent with a higher risk perception of the
(
37
) Equity = Direct investment + Portfolio investment, equity
securities. Debt = Portfolio investment, debt instruments +
Other investment. Implied return computed as the sum of
preceding four quarters flow figures divided by the stock of
the previous period.
34
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2.4. External indebtedness
Bulgarian economy. The dynamics of yields on
debt assets and liabilities are somewhat different,
with the foreign debt holdings of residents yielding
more than the domestic ones. This could be
potentially explained by the different composition
of debt assets compared to liabilities, where loans
to the non-financial sector form a much larger
share.
Graph 2.4.2:
Implied yields on debt and equity
investments
Commercial banks reliance on foreign
financing has diminished.
Foreign deposits in
monetary financial institutions, excluding the
central bank, have diminished, both nominally and
as a percentage of GDP, by more than 50 % since
2009. Furthermore, in mid-2015 commercial banks
held liquidity in excess of the amounts required by
the central bank. Thus, at least for the sector as a
whole, banks’ reliance on parent funding has
diminished in the post-crisis period. For details on
financial sector developments see Section 2.1
Non-financial corporates’ liabilities remain
high.
Overall, the gross external debt of the non-
financial corporate sector to third parties has also
decreased as a proportion of GDP in the post-crisis
period, albeit at a moderate pace, from 32 % in
2009 to 27 % in 2015. The reduction comes mainly
from short-term debt, which implies reduced risks
of swift capital outflows. Cross-border intra-
company lending has remained stable, at around 39
% of GDP since 2009. It fell in 2015 only,
following a shift form debt to equity exposure of
around 2.5 % of GDP (Graph 1.9 in Section 1).
This particular type of financing remains one of
the main sources of funding for businesses in the
country and as such deserves continued
monitoring. Corporate indebtedness is further
discussed in Section 2.2.
20
%
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1
Assets, Debt
Assets, Equity
Liabilities, Debt
Liabilities, Equity
Source:
European Commission
Sectoral composition of external liabilities
Government's increasing financing needs could
be a source of risk.
The increased government
deficits in 2014 and 2015 together with the need to
support the financial sector have increased the
public sector's reliance on foreign financing
(Graph 2.4.3). As a consequence, the gross
external debt of the government has nearly
doubled as share of GDP between 2009 and 2015
from around 7 % to 13 %. Although still low
compared to EU peers, this ratio could further
increase in the coming years if fiscal consolidation
proves difficult to implement or in case further
funding is needed by the financial sector. Debt
servicing has not been significantly affected
because of the favourable financing conditions
presented by the low-interest-rate environment in
the last few years. However, the situation could
change in the medium term. An additional risk
factor is the growing size of contingent liabilities
related to the state-owned enterprises, most
notably in energy and transportation sector.
35
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2.4. External indebtedness
Graph 2.4.3:
External assets and liabilities by sector
Graph 2.4.4:
CA decomposition
200
Assets &
liabilities, %
of GDP
20
10
0
% of GDP
100
0
-10
-20
-30
-100
-200
07Q3 08Q3 09Q3 10Q3 11Q3 12Q3 13Q3 14Q3
Liabilities, Private sector
Assets, Private sector
Liabilities, MFI (excl central bank)
Assets, MFI (excl central bank)
Liabilities, General Government
Assets, General Government
Liabilities, Central Bank (incl reserves)
Assets, Central Bank (incl reserves)
Net int'l investment position (NIIP)
-40
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Capital account (KA)
Secondary income balance
Primary income balance
Trade balance - services
Trade balance - goods
Trade balance
Current account balance (CA)
Net lending/borrowing (CA+KA)
Source:
European Commission
Source:
European Commission
Current account correction path
The current account has remained slightly
positive in 2015, similar to previous years.
The
current account balance has been around or above
zero since 2010. Growth in goods exports and a
slowdown of goods imports, in light of weak
domestic demand, have the main driving forces of
the current account correction. This has helped the
current account balance to improve from a deficit
of some 20 % of GDP in 2008 — among the
largest observed in the EU during the build-up of
imbalances in the 2000s (Graphs 2.4.4 and 2.4.5).
The trade balance in services has been much more
stable and has remained positive between 5 and 7
% of GDP since 2007.
The primary income balance has remained
negative, reflecting the high accumulated inflows
of foreign investments during the boom period, as
already described in the previous section. By
contrast, the secondary income balance and the
capital account have been positive, which is
explained by the growth in grants and transfers
from the EU following Bulgaria’s accession in
2007, as well as the increase in remittances from
an increasing number of Bulgarians working
abroad. The secondary income and capital
accounts
contributed
positively
to
the
improvement of the country’s external position.
36
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2.4. External indebtedness
Graph 2.4.5:
CA of selected member states
Graph 2.4.6:
Contributions to current account change
Change
CA/GDP
2007 to
CA/GDP
2015 (pp.)
10
5
0
% of GDP
30
20
10
-5
-10
0
-15
-20
-10
-20
-25
-30
04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q110Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q115Q1
FR
DE
IT
IE
PT
ES
SI
EL
BG
DE
IT
EL
PT
ES
SI
FR
BG
IE
Real exports contribution
Real imports contribution
Terms of trade impact
Income and transfers contribution
CA/GDP change 2007-14, pp. of GDP
Real exports contribution, EA18
Real imports contribution, EA18
Source:
European Commission
Source:
European Commission
The current account correction reflects a
structural shift in the economy.
A certain
cyclical element in the current account correction
can be observed in the first years after the
economic downturn in 2009, with the negative
output gap closing swiftly at the same time.
Nevertheless, since 2011, the economic growth has
been largely export-driven, with sustained gains
and export market shares (Graph 2.4.6). Domestic
demand has remained very weak, as both private
consumption and private investment remain
subdued. Public consumption and investment have
played a counter-cyclical role, especially in the last
couple of years; with investment being strongly
supported by EU structural and cohesion funds. In
the future, the economy would benefit form a
funding mix relying increasingly on market-based
investments. The structural nature of correction is
also supported by the in-house model for adjusting
the current account, taking into account the output
gap and real effective exchange rate movements.
The current account correction also reflects
structural changes to the saving-investment
balance in recent years.
Two main structural
changes can be identified in the saving-investment
balance of the Bulgarian economy after 2008.
Non-financial corporations undergo a rapid shift
from being large net borrowers to net lenders
(Graph 2.4.7). The causes for this shift could
include deleveraging needs, lack of investment
opportunities in a stagnating economy and changes
in the risk perception and risk appetite of the
business owners. Another shift is observed in the
public sector, as the government becomes net
borrower, following several years of surpluses.
This shift is to be expected in the aftermath of the
crisis as automatic stabilisers kick in and the
government takes a counter-cyclical stance.
However, the public sector continues to be a net
borrower throughout the post-crisis period, which
could signal a structural shift.
37
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2.4. External indebtedness
Graph 2.4.7:
Net lending by sector
10 % of GDP
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
can be expected to continue improving gradually.
More specifically, small current account surpluses
of around 1 % per year could help reduce the NIIP
to the MIP threshold of -35 % of GDP within the
next 10 years. Sustaining the NIIP at its current
level should be possible even with small annual
deficits of between 1 % and 2 % of GDP.
Nevertheless, as already discussed above, the still-
large stock of external liabilities should be
monitored closely. In particular, this concerns the
growing liabilities of the public sector as well as
the liabilities of non-financial corporations.
-35
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Households
General government
Financial corporations
Total Economy
Non-Financial corporations
Source:
European Commission
Households continue to be net borrowers, albeit to
a smaller extent than in the boom years, which can
be explained by the business cycle. The financial
sector remains a net lender to the economy (Graph
2.4.8).
Graph 2.4.8:
Saving-investment by sector
40 % of GDP
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Households investment
Non financial corp. investment
Financial corp. investment
Government investment
Households saving
Non financial corp. saving
Financial corp. saving
Government saving
Source:
European Commission
Overall, a further gradual improvement of the
external position can be expected but some
important risks related to the liabilities should
be noted.
Applying the tool developed by
Commission services to assess NIIP sustainability
reveals that, given current expectations, the NIIP
38
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2.4. External indebtedness
Box 2.4.1:
Specific monitoring
In the 2015 European semester cycle, Bulgaria was found to experience excessive imbalances
which require specific monitoring and decisive policy action. To this end, in November 2015 the
Commission presented a first specific monitoring report (
1
). This box concludes the specific
monitoring cycle by summarising the findings on progress with reform implementation (see Annex
A) focussing on the MIP relevant CSRs.
For Bulgaria, CSRs 1 (fiscal), CSR 2 (financial sector), CSR 3 (labour market) and CSR 5
(insolvency) were considered relevant under the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure. The
policies contribute towards the following overarching objectives:
Ensure stable public finances.
In 2015, the deficit target of 2.8% of GDP is ESA terms was
likely to be slightly overachieved. The better than targeted execution mainly reflects revenue over-
performance in view of enhanced tax compliance. Overall fiscal discipline also contributed to the
budgetary consolidation. In 2016, the adopted budget aims at achieving further deficit reduction to
1.9% of GDP mainly in light of further improved tax administration and some savings on the
expenditure side. The temporarily decreasing absorption of the EU-funds are planned to be partly
off-set by investments from domestic resources, which would be financed also by the one-off
revenue related to the concession of the Sofia airport. While the Commission's 2016 winter
forecast also foresees the reduction of the deficit, the improvement is smaller since some deficit
reducing measures have not been sufficiently substantiated yet. The deficit reduction is expected to
be continued in 2017 in light of already legislated revenue increasing measures. At the same time,
any further support for the financial sector could have a deficit increasing effect. Importantly,
some progress is made related to the set-up of the independent Fiscal Council as its members were
approved by the Parliament at the end of 2015.
Stabilise the banking and non-banking financial sector.
The central bank has amended banking
sector legislation, initiated improvements in banking supervision and launched the comprehensive
asset quality review and stress test of the banking sector. The non-banking supervisor has
completed the transposition of the Solvency II directive and taken first steps towards organising
independent third-party reviews of the assets of pension funds and balance sheets of insurance
companies.
Competitiveness, business environment and institutional capacity.
Existing measures and
active labour market policies are implemented and new ones planned, still without a methodology
for monitoring those policies. The reform of the Public Employment Service is ongoing.
Overall, limited progress has been recorded.
This is broadly consistent with the findings in the first specific monitoring report. Nevertheless,
since then additional progress has been made as regards public finances with the adoption of the
2016 budget, including an ambitions consolidation effort. No further progress was registered as
regards the developing of transparent mechanism for setting the minimum wage and minimum
social security thresholds and the strengthening of the insolvency framework despite expectations.
(
1
) http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/documents/20160118_bg_imbalances_epc_report_en.pdf
39
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2.5. MIP ASSESSMENT MATRIX
This MIP assessment matrix summarises the main findings of the in-depth review in the country report. It
focuses on imbalances and adjustment issues relevant for the MIP*.
Table 2.5.1:
MIP assessment matrix -Bulgaria
Gravity of the challenge
Evolution and prospects
Policy response
Imbalances (unsustainable trends, vulnerabilities and associated risks)
Financial
sector
Risks stemming from the banking and
non-banking financial sector are related
to credit quality concerns and the extent
of imprudent business practices. The
materialisation of these risks would pose
a challenge for the efficiency of resource
allocation in the economy and for public
finances.
Deterioration in asset quality could put a
strain on financial institutions’ capital
ratios. Once private sector solutions are
exhausted, this could weigh on public
finances as well, either through direct
support or potential need for providing
bridge financing to the deposit insurance
scheme to have sufficient funds to pay
out guaranteed deposits.
Restricting credit to the economy could
further reduce private investment (at 15%
of GDP in 2015, see p. 8) and subdue
growth, creating a negative feedback
loop with further deterioration in asset
quality of the banks.
Similar problems could emerge in
pension fund and insurance companies,
particularly for business groups, which
operate companies in all those industries.
There is a risk of contamination
throughout the financial sector, which
could pose risks to macro-financial
stability.
External
indebtedn
ess
Bulgaria has high external indebtedness,
as evidenced by the negative NIIP of
over 60% of GDP (see p. 31) of which
7% is due to net external debt. The high
external liabilities stock makes the
external position vulnerable to adverse
shocks.
The negative NIIP has
improved notably from over
100% of GDP in 2009 to just
above 70% of GDP in 2014.
The improvement is forecast
to continue, albeit at a slow
pace.
The two main reasons for the
NIIP improvement have been
the reduced liabilities of the
financial
sector
towards
parent companies as well as
the increasing foreign assets
of
domestic
companies
(mainly pension funds but
also banks).
No policy steps have been taken to
address risks to the external debt
issue as it is not identified as a
pressing one by the authorities at
this point.
Materialisation of risks in the
banking sector has led to the
demise of the fourth largest
bank.
Sizeable
bridge
financing
from
the
government was required to
pay guaranteed deposits.
Since the peak of the turmoil,
banks’ performance
has
stabilised and confidence
appears to have returned,
but the main risks remain to
be addressed.
The private pension funds
and insurance industries
show similar characteristics
to those of the banking
sector. Risks to macro-
financial stability from this
sector
have
recently
increased with its increasing
size
An independent asset quality
review and stress test has been
launched in the banking sector in
order to obtain a clear picture of
the banks' capital positions and
restore credibility in the sector.
Banking supervision needs to be
strengthened to align it with best
international
practices.
The
authorities have put forward a plan,
which is being implemented.
The authorities have transposed
Solvency II directive to address
regulatory gaps in the insurance
sector. Amendments to the pension
funds regulation and supervision
are not yet fully adopted.
A review of the balance sheets of
pension funds and insurance
companies has been initiated and,
if conducted to a high standard,
would help reduce risks in the
financial sector.
(Continued on the next page)
40
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2.5. MIP Assessment Matrix
Table (continued)
Corporate
debt and
deleveragi
ng
A high debt stock accumulated in the run
up to the global crisis (101% of GDP in
2014, see p. 13) and a high level of
payables sustained in the post crisis
period (104% of GDP) suggest possible
need of deleveraging.
Deleveraging pressures may weigh on
investment and growth in the short term,
likely having effects on medium-term
growth prospects. These effects may be
amplified if the deleveraging is slow and
protracted.
Private Debt has fluctuated
around 135% of GDP since
2008. Most of it is on the non-
financial corporate balance
sheets.
Negative impacts of slow
corporate deleveraging have
been identified both on the
demand and supply of bank
lending. Deflation puts a
further
strain
on
debt
servicing and could amplify
problems in the economy.
Policy steps are needed to improve
the
insolvency
framework,
including legislation, institutions
and practices (see p. 18). The
Government has initiated work on
amending the insolvency-related
parts of the Commercial Act. The
focus should be on pre-court and
out of court settlements as well as
on accelerating court rulings.
Adjustment issues
Labour market
The Bulgarian labour market is weak
with still low employment (65.1% in
2014, see p.23) and high unemployment
rates (11.4% in 2014). Mismatches
impair the functioning of the labour
market,
hampering
a
balanced
adjustment.
Long-term unemployment continues to
grow
in
the
post-crisis
period,
underlining the largely structural nature
of unemployment.
Minimum wage (MWS) and minimum
social security thresholds (MSST)
increases are decided without following
a mechanism based on relevant macro-
indicators The setting system doesn't
ensure the right balance between the
objectives of supporting employment
and competitiveness and safeguarding
labour income.
The number of people
employed in 2014 was still
about 13 % lower than it
was at its peak in 2008.
Unemployment
has
decreased but mainly as a
result
of
shrinking
workforce.
LTU constitutes about
60%
of
total
unemployment (age group
20-64), one of the highest
LTU incidence in the EU.
(see p.23).
The average increase of
MSST in 2016 for activities
where no agreement was
reached is in fact higher
than for the sectors with
agreement, lifted by the
bigger increase of the MW
in some sectors. This
raises the pressure on the
low-skilled and limits the
options for labour market
adjustment
Albeit modest improvements
were implemented, important
policy challenges persist.
The policy gap remains in the
area of MW and MSST setting,
as transparent mechanisms
have still to be developed.
Over
2013-2014,
the
government kept the MSST
unchanged for sectors where
social partners did not reach an
agreement. In 2015 and 2016
the
government
applied
administratively an average
increase of 4.2 % and 7.5 % to
such sectors, without taking into
account their macroeconomic
impact (see p.30).
The government has taken steps
to optimise its ALMP; however it
still lacks prioritisation and
targeting. Expenditure on active
measures was kept nominally
flat for 2016.
Conclusions from IDR analysis
Bulgaria is subject to stock imbalances related to fragilities in the financial sector and high corporate indebtedness. The
adjustment is further complicated by labour market frictions. These imbalances create vulnerabilities to an adverse
shock, which would have harmful effects on the functioning of the economy in the short-to-medium run.
Some stabilisation of the banking sector occurred in 2015 together with returning confidence, but a comprehensive asset
quality review is pending. Deleveraging in the corporate sector has been slow, leaving a large debt stock and rising
payables in the corporate balance sheets. Long-term unemployment has continued to increase, while skill mismatches
impair the on-going adjustment of the economy.
Limited progress has been made on improving the resilience of the financial sector. The authorities have contracted
external consultants to assist in reviewing the quality of assets and conducting stress tests in the banking sector and
reviewing the balance sheet of the pension funds and insurance undertakings. A plan to reform and develop banking
supervision has been adopted but is still in an early stage of implementation. Improving the efficiency of the insolvency
procedure remains a challenge, with legislative proposals in preparation.
(*)The first column summarises gravity issues which aim at providing an order of magnitude of the level of imbalances. The
second column reports findings concerning the evolution and prospects of imbalances. The third column reports recent and
planned relevant measures. Findings are reported for each source of imbalance and adjustment issue. The final three
paragraphs of the matrix summarise the overall challenges, in terms of their gravity, developments and prospects, policy
response.
Source:
European Commission
41
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3.
ADDITIONAL STRUCTURAL ISSUES
In addition to the macroeconomic imbalances and adjustments issues addressed in section 2, this section
provides an analysis of other structural challenges for Bulgaria. Focusing on the policy areas covered in
the 2015 country-specific recommendations, this section analyses issues related to the fiscal framework.
Secondly, it covers the tax system and tax burden, given the persistent tax-compliance issues. It follows
with an analysis of the challenges facing the pension, health and long-term care systems. Then it
discusses education and skills in view of their importance for sustainable and inclusive growth. The
issues of poverty and social exclusion are then analysed, because of their pertinence and magnitude.
Finally, the section looks into the range of problems in connection with the unsupportive business and
administrative environments.
3.1
FISCAL FRAMEWORK
The recently established Fiscal Council,
however, is not yet fully operational.
The Fiscal
Council was entrusted with a broad mandate that
includes monitoring compliance with national
fiscal rules. This mandate includes the structural
budget balance rule and the automatic correction
mechanism;
issuing
opinions
and
recommendations on official macroeconomic
forecasts; and issuing opinions on risks to the
sustainability of public finances. The Fiscal
Council members were appointed by parliament at
the end of 2015.
The Bulgarian fiscal framework has been
strengthened over the last few years, following
national transposition of legally binding
requirements at supra-national level,
i.e.
Council Directive 2011/85/EU on budgetary
frameworks and the Treaty on Stability,
Coordination and Governance (commonly called
the Fiscal Compact), to which Bulgaria is bound.
The new Public Finance Law that came into force
in January 2014 introduced a great number of
fiscal rules. These included a structural budget
balance rule at the general government level, and
an improved medium-term budgetary framework
aimed at better guiding the budgetary process. As
to the binding nature of the budgetary framework,
which is particularly relevant in assessing its
strength, Bulgaria is one of the EU’s average
performers. It shares this position with other
countries in which the ceilings/targets can be
changed in a number of situations provided for by
legislation or other public administrative
provisions and such changes need to be explained
publicly.
Further progress was registered in 2015 with
the adoption of secondary legislation defining
the automatic correction mechanism and
establishing the Fiscal Council.
The Act on the
Fiscal Council and the automatic corrective
mechanism, which details certain provisions of the
Public Finance Law, was approved by parliament
only in April 2015, well after the deadline for
transposing the Budgetary Frameworks Directive
and the Fiscal Compact. This Act specifies the
conditions under which the correction mechanism
of significant deviations from the medium-term
objective is to operate and stipulates the mandate
and organisation of the Fiscal Council.
42
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3.2. TAX SYSTEM AND TAX BURDEN
The overall tax burden is low in Bulgaria.
In
2014, the tax-to-GDP ratio amounted to 27.8 %,
which is the second lowest in the EU and much
lower than the EU-28 average of around 40 %.
However, it implies limited resources for public
services. The tax system structure is growth-
friendly, with consumption taxes representing
14.1 % of GDP in 2014, the sixth highest in the
EU-28, with taxes on energy being a major budget
revenue source. Nevertheless, as far as other
growth-friendly taxes are concerned, reliance on
recurrent property taxes is limited (0.3 % of GDP
vs 1.6 % in the EU-28 in 2014) and tax rates for
petrol and diesel are among the lowest in the EU
(
38
).
The Bulgarian tax system is characterised by
high compliance costs.
Regarding time to comply
with tax rules, Bulgaria still remains the worst
performer in the EU, although it has recently come
down from 454 to 423 hours per year, according to
the latest available estimates (
39
). Also, the cost of
tax collection is high, standing in the upper range
of the EU spectrum at 1.34 % of net revenue in
2011 (OECD, 2013). Importantly, Bulgaria scores
rather poorly as regards the use of electronic filing
of tax returns, in particular in the case of personal
and corporate income taxes. This is mainly due to
lack of legislation in place providing for
compulsory electronic filing. Making the whole
process of handling tax returns electronic could
considerably reduce the tax collection and
compliance cost since part of the return can be
automatically pre-filled with taxpayer identity
information or third-party information. Use of
third-party information to pre-fill income tax
returns is not obligatory in Bulgaria.
Improving tax compliance is still an important
challenge.
Efforts to improve tax compliance and
tackle tax evasion are important for securing tax
revenues, encouraging greater efficiency in tax
collection, and promoting fairness. The value of
the non-observed economy, which is a rough
(
38
) On the other hand, the price levels of petroleum products
without taxes are among the highest in the EU. As a result,
in 2015 Bulgaria had the lowest relative proportion of taxes
in the EU for Euro-Super 95 and Diesel and the second
lowest for heating gas oil. From 2016, the tax rate for
heating gas oil was increased by almost 1200 %.
(
39
) World Bank, 2015. Doing Business 2016: Measuring
Regulatory Quality and Efficiency, Washington, DC:
World Bank. DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0667-4.
approximation of the compliance gap, was
estimated to be as high as 13.4 % of GDP in 2011.
The latest estimate of the VAT gap as a share of
theoretical VAT liability is 17 % (2013), the 11th
highest in the EU. Nevertheless, it represents a
significant reduction from the 24 % recorded in
2011 (
40
).
In October 2015, Bulgaria adopted a Single Tax
Compliance Strategy and an action plan for
2015-2017 to address challenges related to tax
compliance.
Agreements were also made to
broaden exchange of information, and stricter
verification requirements for excise goods were
ensured. To tackle the shadow economy, the newly
adopted strategy outlines various issues like the
cash economy, and under-reporting of labour
income and sales. It suggests various measures
detailed in an annexed action plan. However, the
lack of evaluation and impact assessment for anti-
fraud measures is not identified as a problem and
is not addressed. A comprehensive risk analysis to
identify the most important tax collection
shortages and the main reasons for them is lacking.
In order to address the risk in a comprehensive
manner, the analysis needs to cover the work of all
tax collection authorities. In addition, measures
suggested by the strategy to increase tax revenues
do not appear to directly address some key issues,
such as inadequate use of available technologies
and information, instances of corruption and weak
governance.
(
40
) Center for Social and Economic Research and Central
Planning Bureau. (2015), 2013 Update Report to the Study
to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27
Member States.
43
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3.3. PENSION, HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE SYSTEMS
The pension system in Bulgaria is sustainable in
both the medium and long-term perspectives
but faces challenges as to the adequacy of
pension benefits.
When looking at fiscal
sustainability indicators, the Bulgarian pension
system is estimated to be on a sustainable path
with respect to the expected demographic
evolution in the coming decades. In both the
medium and long-term perspectives, the pension
component of the cost of ageing is below the EU
average. Overall, Bulgaria is classified to be at low
fiscal sustainability risk in the medium term.
According to the Bulgarian authorities, the
deficit in the pension system financed by the
state budget will diminish by 2037.
The pension
system is currently highly subsidised by the State
Budget. With a view to reducing the deficit of the
pension system, a recent pension reform has
increased social contributions by 2 percentage
points (by 2018). Moreover, as of 1 January 2016,
the State will no longer participate as a ‘third
insurer’ (12 % State contribution) but it will
continue to intervene after the fact to cover any
deficit in the system. According to the Bulgarian
authorities, together with the legislated increase in
retirement age (see next paragraph), the measure is
expected to stabilise the pension system deficit by
2037.
A long-awaited pension reform increases the
pensionable age to 65 years for men by 2029
and for women by 2037.
The pension reform was
adopted in July 2015 following extensive
consultations with the social partners. Important
measures include the raising and equalisation of
pensionable ages and the rise in required
contribution periods to 37 years for women and 40
years for men. Moreover, social contributions
increase by 2 percentage points and the socially
insured can choose more freely between the first
and second pension pillar. The accrual rate for
each working year will increase from 1.1 to 1.5,
which has a positive impact on future pension
entitlements for those who can meet the higher
required contribution periods. While projections of
future pension adequacy under the new legislation
are not yet available, the various reform measures
tend to make adequate old-age incomes more
dependent on individual contribution records.
Labour market measures to support the longer
working lives of men and women will therefore be
crucial to support future pension adequacy.
The number of personal invalidity pensions has
grown significantly (
41
) in the last 15 years.
The
newly granted invalidity pensions grew by 3.4 %
in 2014(
42
). Furthermore, the proportion of
expenses for invalidity pensions in the total
expenses on pensions has grown consistently from
10.3 % in 2000 to 20.3 % in 2010(
43
) and 20.6 %
in 2014.While the eligibility criteria for invalidity
pensions have recently been strengthened in terms
of medical checks, the main problem remains the
lack of effective control on the ground. The
Bulgarian authorities have announced plans to
reform the system to take better account of the
remaining working capacity of individuals in
working age.
Health system
The Bulgarian healthcare system faces major
challenges, including limited access, low
funding and poor health outcomes.
It is
estimated that 12 % of Bulgarians (who do not
permanently live abroad) do not have health
coverage. This lack of coverage is unevenly
distributed across society. Income inequalities are
reflected in access inequalities with the worst-off
having the greatest problems in receiving services
from the public system. In particular, the lack of
health coverage is prominent among the Roma
population.
Limited access to healthcare is illustrated by the
high share of reported unmet medical needs,
mainly due to costs.
The Bulgarian healthcare
system continues to be affected by low funding
and its population is insufficiently protected
against the financial risk of ill health. Public
expenditure on healthcare was 4.52% of GDP in
2013 (well below the EU average). This is
particularly striking as regards pharmaceuticals.
Public spending on medicines in Bulgaria as a
share of overall medicinal spending in the
outpatient sector is the lowest in the EU (23.8% in
2013, as compared with an EU average of 58.4%).
(
41
) At the end of 2000, personal invalidity pensions numbered
323 517. This number had grown to 861 712 at the end of
2010 and reached 907 380 at the end of 2014.
(
42
) The total number of pensioners with newly acquired
personal and hereditary invalidity pensions in 2014 was
36 894.
(
43
) World Bank, A short analysis of invalidity pensions for the
period 2000 – 2010.
44
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3.3. Pension, health and long-term care systems
The publicly underfinanced healthcare system is
not able to ensure appropriate access for the whole
population. Bribery and informal payments are
widespread in the health system, as is an
ineffective distribution and use of resources.
Bulgaria also faces important challenges in
terms of the health workforce, but lacks an
overall strategy and policies to address this
challenge.
The economic crisis has extended these
problems and the health system can soon be
expected to face serious problems in terms of
health workforce availability. Even though the
number of medical doctors is slightly higher than
in the EU on average, their mean age is 51. The
number of nurses is the second lowest among
Member States and their mean age is 49. Health
professionals’ emigration is driven mainly by
higher remuneration in other Member States but
also by the lack of appropriate opportunities for
professional development in Bulgaria. Again this
is partially caused by low health funding.
The Bulgarian healthcare system continues
being affected by weak performance.
Bulgaria
ranks as the worst EU Member State in terms of
child mortality (1-14 years), the second worst in
perinatal mortality and the fourth worst in terms of
amenable mortality. Life expectancy and mortality
place Bulgaria at one of the lowest positions in the
EU. Mortality from circulatory system diseases is
the highest among all Member States. Poor health
outcomes have a negative impact on the working
age population. Mortality rates before the age of
65 are estimated to reduce the workforce in
Bulgaria by 2.7% when compared with its
potential estimated by using EU-average mortality
rates (
44
).
Problems of low effectiveness and efficiency of
health service delivery are substantial.
The
Bulgarian health system is particularly hospital-
centred. Its hospital capacity widely exceeds the
EU average (in 2013, there were 524 curative care
beds in hospitals per hundred thousand inhabitants,
compared with an EU average of 355). In contrast,
outpatient and primary care are not sufficiently
(
44
) Source: European Commission calculations on impact of
mortality on labour force size, measured as the number of
potential working life years per birth cohort, standardised
for population size and age cohort mix, based on Eurostat
variable [demo_mlifetable], 2013 figures
developed and there are problems of access to
general practitioners, particularly in less densely
populated areas. Inpatient facilities provide many
services that — in other Member States — are
accessible in outpatient care. The lack of selective
contracting — i.e. the obligation of the National
Health Insurance Fund to reimburse services
provided by all hospitals in the country — add to
the financial problems of the public purse.
Measures to change this were taken quite recently.
The National Health Map has been published for
public consultation. It should become the basis for
contracting health services as from April 2016.
First results may be expected in a few months
thereafter at the earliest. First steps to define clear
rules of assessing costs of health services were
taken in 2015, but the mechanism is not fully in
place. There are sometimes huge dissimilarities
between the costs of the same procedure in
different hospitals, which adds to the pressure on
the National Health Insurance Fund’s budget.
Bulgaria could benefit from improving policies
on pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement.
Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical expenditure takes a
disproportionate amount of the budget, at 38% of
total health expenditure (
45
).The authorities
recently made some initial changes to the system
to consider the cost-effectiveness of medicines, but
not in the case of clinical treatment guidelines. The
use of health technology assessment is already a
tool for decision-making. Greater uptake and use
of cost-effective medicines would reduce
expenditure and improve access to medicines for
patients.
Recent reforms in the healthcare system
envisage splitting the current coverage package
into three packages — basic, additional and
emergency.
The reform will officially establish
waiting times and introduce the possibility for
voluntary health insurance for those who do not
want to wait for services under the additional
package. It is of paramount importance that the
design and introduction of this reform does not
further increase the inequities in access to
necessary healthcare among the population.
(
45
) Ministry of Health of the Republic of Bulgaria &
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
Final Report with Recommendations for Reforming
Bulgaria’s Pharmaceutical Sector, May 2015
45
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3.3. Pension, health and long-term care systems
Long-term care
The steep demographic decline requires
improved long-term care services, as the elderly
population is more financially vulnerable and
finds it harder to afford care (
46
).
The old-age
dependency ratio of people over 65 years old in
relation to 15-64-year-olds stood at 30.1% in 2015
and is projected to increase to 58.7% by 2060. As
the need for long-term care continues to grow, so
does the necessity to provide high-quality services
at a lower cost in better adapted settings. The
delivery of long-term care takes place under two
different systems – the healthcare system and the
system for provision of social services. Services
are regulated by several different types of
legislation. The fragmentation of legislation results
in deficiencies in social service provision;
hospitals are often forced to keep elderly patients
for longer periods for social, rather than medical,
reasons. The resulting significant costs for the
health system further exacerbate the need for
reform in the long-term care delivery.
Despite
some
progress,
the
deinstitutionalisation of people with disabilities
and the elderly has been slow.
The current level
of coordination between the social and healthcare
systems does not ensure the optimal quality of
delivered services and efficient use of resources.
With a view to address the challenges facing the
delivery of long-term care, the Bulgarian
government adopted in 2014 a National Strategy
for Long-Term Care. However, the strategy’s
action plan is only expected to be adopted in 2017
at the earliest. Its main goal is the provision of
accessible, high-quality and sustainable long-term
care services for elderly people and people with
disabilities. It includes measures aimed at
deinstitutionalisation and the sustainable expansion
of access to community-based and home services,
and an overall improvement of the mechanism for
coordination between the systems for social and
healthcare. The Bulgarian authorities are currently
undertaking a quality analysis of the existing 160
long-term care institutions.
The process of deinstitutionalising children has
continued to be substantially supported by the
European Structural and Investment Funds.
(
46
) World Bank, Health Sector Diagnosis Policy Note
Bulgaria, 2013.
Altogether, 179 centres for community-based
services have been established in 78 municipalities
and regions, while 2293 children have been in
foster care. Work has started on updating the
financial standards for the delivery of the newly-
created community-based services. Despite the
progress, this work needs to continue to ensure the
effective delivery, the good quality and financial
sustainability of all new services on the ground.
46
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3.4. EDUCATION AND SKILLS
Improving human capital is crucial to raising
productivity and growth and tackling poverty
and social exclusion.
Enrolment rates have
recently decreased at all levels of education except
higher education. This casts a shadow on future
growth prospects, and on the capacity of the
education system to include vulnerable groups and
equip learners with relevant skills.
Vulnerable groups such as Roma and pupils
from poor families continue to face significant
obstacles in accessing and completing
education, especially in rural areas.
Pupils from
disadvantaged backgrounds tend to concentrate in
low-performing schools with limited resources,
while well-off pupils generally attend high-
performing schools. This indicates a close
connection between socioeconomic status and
educational opportunity. The Roma level of
enrolment at all levels of education is significantly
lower in comparison with non-Roma, including all
other minority groups (
47
). Around 26% of Roma
children receive education in
de facto
segregated
schools, as defined in the Roma Inclusion Index
(2015). Considering the promising results of health
and labour mediators, educational mediators could
play an important role in involving local
communities with a significant Roma population,
but results so far are very limited due to inadequate
training and lack of institutional support. The new
Strategy for Educational Integration of Children
from Ethnic Minorities (2015-2020) and the
corresponding action plan have been approved
recently. However, it is important to sustain and
scale-up successful initiatives and projects, ensure
coherence with the new educational standards, in
particular as regards financing and inclusiveness.
The reform of preschool and school education is
moving forward.
The Preschool and School
Education Act, was adopted by parliament at the
end of September 2015 (
48
). The Act provides a
(
47
) Only 38% of Roma children aged 3-5 are in preschool, less
than half the rate for non-Roma (82%), and the regions
with the highest share of Roma population have the lowest
preschool enrolment rates.
(
48
) The Act introduces a new structure of school education,
based on four levels: initial primary education (1
st
to 4
th
grade), upper primary education (5
th
to 7
th
grade), primary
gymnasium (8
th
to 10
th
grade) and upper gymnasium (11
th
and 12
th
grade). It also introduces state subsidies for private
kindergartens and schools, subject to certain conditions,
and it creates a National Inspectorate for Education, which
consolidated legal framework for improving the
quality and equity of education at primary and
secondary levels. All the subsequent educational
standards are planned to be designed and adopted
by August 2016.
Despite a recent drop, the enrolment rate in
preschool education (children aged 3 to 6) has
shown an overall increase of over 10 percentage
points since 2000/2001.
Although preschool
education is now mandatory for all children aged 5
and 6, the participation of disadvantaged children
is still limited due to poor infrastructure, lack of
trained staff and hidden educational costs (
49
). This
situation has a direct impact on educational
outcomes (
50
).
The early school leaving (ESL) rate increased
from 11.8% in 2011 to 12.9% in 2014, reversing
the previous downward trend.
As for many other
indicators, there are substantial regional
differences, with the ESL rate 2 to 4 times lower in
the South West region, which includes the capital
city Sofia, than in the other five regions.
Furthermore, the ESL rate remains significantly
higher for Roma and pupils from rural areas. Data
from the 2011 national census show that 93% of
Roma do not complete upper secondary education,
compared with 30 per cent of ethnic Bulgarians,
and that almost a quarter of Roma children aged 7-
15 remain outside the educational system
altogether. The major factors for the high ESL rate
among the Roma are poor living conditions,
unequal opportunities at school and highly
ineffective social protection and incentive systems.
Bulgaria’s national strategy on reducing ESL
(2013-2020) was accompanied by an action plan
for 2014-2015, including prevention, intervention
and compensation measures. Some support
measures included in the national ESL strategy and
the 2015 National Reform Programme, such as the
will develop criteria and indicators for school inspection,
will conduct assessments in schools, and will provide
guidance and analyses on the quality of school education.
49
( ) World Bank Group (2015)
(
50
) For instance, attending at least a 2-year pre-primary
education program has been shown to increase PISA math
scores by an average of 7 points relative to attending one
year or none at all. The effect is even greater for children of
low socioeconomic status (10 points on average) and
students such as Roma who speak a different language at
home (19 points).
47
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3.4. Education and skills
introduction of all day schooling, additional
training for children at risk of dropping out, and
support for the reintegration of early school
leavers, are currently under way. However,
inclusive support mechanisms — targeting not
only vulnerable pupils but also to parents and
teachers — remain to be strengthened.
Participation in vocational education and
training (VET) at upper secondary level is
above the EU average.
Employment and activity
rates of upper secondary VET graduates are better
than the ones for upper secondary graduates as a
whole (
51
). Modernisation efforts in vocational
education and training include an action plan
2015-2017 for the VET strategy, recently adopted
amendments in the VET legislation, and by-
laws/ordinances. Their aim is to ensure quality of
vocational education and training, to introduce
work-based learning, to adapt VET curricula to
labour market needs and to embed a system for
validation of non-formally and informally acquired
learning outcomes. Further development is
necessary for institutional capacity, cooperation
with social partners and mainstreaming of pilot
project results in the educational system.
In higher education, the new national strategy
still needs to be translated into concrete
measures in order to address quality issues,
systemic inefficiencies and limited labour
market relevance.
While Bulgaria’s tertiary
education attainment rate among 30-34 year-olds
has increased by 3.6 percentage points over the
past three years to 30.9% in 2014, the employment
rate of recent tertiary graduates decreased in 2014
to 74.5%, six percentage points below the EU
average. Bulgaria is among the EU Member States
with the highest percentage of 20 to 34 year-olds
with tertiary education who have jobs that would
not traditionally require this level of qualification.
(
52
) The higher education strategy was adopted in
February 2015. Several amending acts, concerning
for instance the revision of academic quality
standards, the system of performance-based public
funding and the identification of 'protected'
(
51
) Institute of Market Economy (2015), Vocational education
and employment - Advantages, Weaknesses, Opportunities,
Threats.
(
52
) European Commission (2012), EU Youth Report 2012,
http://ec.europa.eu/youth/library/reports/eu-youth-report-
2012_en.pdf
specialisations (specialisations that are important
for socioeconomic development but currently not
very attractive for applicants) have been further
proposed, but there are delays in their adoption and
implementation.
Adult participation in lifelong learning is the
second lowest in the EU, at 1.8 % in 2014,
compared with the average of 10.7 %.
The
annual action plans of the 2014-2020 lifelong
learning strategy envisage concrete measures in
order to increase the rate of adult participation to
7 % by 2020 and to widen its coverage, including a
focus on disadvantaged groups (see Graph 3.4.1).
Graph 3.4.1:
Population aged 25 to 64 participating in
education and training in 2014
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Source:
European Commission
Despite the growth in importance of digital
skills for the workforce and for society at large,
digital skills in the overall population are
particularly low.
Only 31% of Bulgarians have
basic digital skills compared with 55% in the EU
(
53
). According to the latest Eurostat data, in 2015,
Bulgaria had almost the lowest percentage of
regular Internet users in the EU (55% vs 76% in
the EU), and still 35% of the population has never
used the internet (vs 16% in the EU). (
54
).This
means that more than one-third of the population
(
53
) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/en/digital-agenda-
scoreboard
(
54
) In addition to the lack of skills, the low up-take could also
be partially explained by costs and lack of access to
broadband services in rural areas.
48
RO
BG
HR
EL
SK
HU
PL
LT
LV
IE
CY
BE
MT
DE
IT
CZ
PT
ES
EU
EE
SL
LU
AT
UK
NL
FR
FI
SE
DK
0
EU target
BG target
 swd (2016) 0072 - Ingen titel
3.4. Education and skills
cannot partake on the possibilities offered by the
Internet, nor can they contribute to the digital
economy. Furthermore, digital skills are nowadays
needed in every corner of the workforce and the
fact that only 54% of the workforce (vs 72% in the
EU) possesses basic or above basic digital skills
will become an important barrier to the country’s
economic development.
49
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1604561_0054.png
3.5. POVERTY AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION
The high share of people at-risk-of-poverty or
social exclusion (AROPE), as well as high
inequality, remains a major challenge.
The
AROPE rate dropped in 2013 and 2014 (Graph
3.5.1), but due to a break in time series in 2014
regarding information on severe material
deprivation (
55
) it cannot be yet seen as an actual
improvement. Moreover, the AROPE rate of
40.1% in 2014 was still among the worst in the
EU. The share of people living in low intensity
households decreased, however both the share of
people in monetary poverty and the poverty gap
(
56
) increased for all groups but the elderly (Graph
3.5.2). In 2014, 21.8% of the population lived
below the poverty line of BGN 323.75 (EUR 165).
Assessment of the at-risk of poverty rate by
household type shows that poverty was
concentrated in single adult households, single
people with dependent children and households
with three or more children. Bulgaria experiences
one of the highest income inequality rates in the
EU. On average, in 2014, the richest 20% of the
population earned 6.8 times more than the poorest
20% (S80/S20 indicator). The social protection
system (including the general minimum income)
does not lead to adequate levels of income support,
with implications on inequality and poverty.
(
55
) The break in series of severe material deprivation is due to
a change in the interview(er)s training, with special
attention paid by interviewers on the proper understanding
of the questions, i.e. capacity to afford paying of one week
annual holiday.
56
( ) The poverty gap shows how poor are the poor. It is
calculated as a difference between the median equivalised
income of persons below the at-risk-of poverty threshold
and the threshold itself, expressed as a percentage of the at-
risk-of poverty threshold.
Graph 3.5.1:
At-risk-of-poverty-or-social-exclusion and its
components
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
%
10
5
0
08*
09
10
11
12
13
14*
BG, At-risk-of-poverty-or-social-exclusion rate
EU, At-risk-of-poverty-or-social-exclusion rate
Severe material deprivation
People living in low work intensity households
At-risk-of-poverty rate
* marks a break in times series (a component with a
dashed line)
Source:
European Commision
Graph 3.5.2:
At-risk-of-poverty gap, by age group
50
45
%
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Children (<18y)
Elderly (65+)
Working age (18-64)
Total
Source:
European Commission
Many elderly remain at-risk-of-poverty or
social exclusion.
47.8% of the population above
age 65 were at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion
in 2014, which is the highest rate in the EU (EU:
average is 17.9%). Monetary poverty of the elderly
decreased year-on-year to 22.6% in 2014 (EU:
13.8%), and the share of pensioners receiving
minimum pensions out of the total number of
pensioners also decreased slightly from 21.1% in
50
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3.5. Poverty and social exclusion
2013 to 20.4% in 2015. In fact, those in old age
were the only group that witnessed a decrease of
the depth of poverty from 20.6% in 2013 to 17.9%
a year later (EU: 16.5%). Substantial gender
differences persist among the elderly. These are
reflected in a comparably high gender pension gap
(23% in 2014) and a higher at-risk-of-poverty and
social exclusion rate among women aged 65 and
over (51.5% of women, compared with 42.3% of
men).
The risk of poverty or social exclusion for
children is high, despite some recent progress.
The AROPE rate for children (0-17) fell to 45.2%
in 2014 but still remains well above the EU
average (27.7%). Income poverty increased and
affected almost one third of children in 2014. The
poverty gap for children increased to 43.4% and
the severe material deprivation rate stood more
than three times higher than the EU average. The
effect of the level of educational attainment of
parents on the transmission of inter-generational
poverty to children increased for parents with low
and medium qualifications and decreased for the
highly qualified.
At 87 %, the at-risk-of-poverty rate is especially
high among the Roma (
57
).
The high number of
Roma living in separated locations and dwellings
lacking basic amenities further exacerbates their
isolation and limits the chances to breach the
poverty circle (
58
). Considering the need for cross-
sectoral implementation and monitoring of the
National Roma Integration Strategy, the
administrative capacity, resources and the mandate
conferred to the National Roma Contact Point
remain below standard. Although first steps to
build a monitoring system for the Roma
integration strategy are ongoing, its effectiveness
to measure the impact on final beneficiaries will be
an important element (
59
).
(
57
) According to the 2011 Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA)
pilot survey.
(
58
) Roma households lacking at least one of the basic
amenities — 76 % (in comparison with 34 % for non-
Roma); Roma households experiencing severe material
deprivation — 82 % (non-Roma 38 %). Source 2011 FRA
pilot survey.
(
59
) Building a robust monitoring system by the end of 2016 is
also an obligation in order to meet the precondition linked
to the use of Investment Priority 9.2 — Socio-economic
integration of marginalised communities such as the Roma.
The risk of poverty or social exclusion is much
higher in rural areas.
This is reflected by a high
severe material deprivation rate of 40.6% in rural
areas against 25.9% in urban areas in 2014. The
risk of poverty is particularly high for sparsely
populated rural areas, reflecting the dependence on
very low incomes.
One of the main reasons for the high risk of
poverty is the limited expenditure and poor
effectiveness of the social protection system in
reducing market income inequalities.
In 2013,
total social protection expenditure in Bulgaria
stood at 18.5% of GDP, which is well below the
EU average (29.8% of GDP in 2012) (
60
).
Spending on unemployment benefits (0.6% of
GDP vs. 1.6% for the EU) and social
exclusion/housing benefits (0.3% of GDP vs. 1.1%
for the EU) is particularly low and reflected in
comparably poor social outcomes. The low
spending levels are exacerbated by the low
effectiveness of social transfers in reducing
poverty (Bulgaria is the state with the third-least
effective social transfers system in the EU) and the
overall low access to quality social services.
The general minimum income (GMI) provides
very limited levels of support and limited
outreach to the inactive population.
The basic
monthly allowance is equal to EUR 33, well below
the poverty line. The benefit level has not been
increased in line with average wage and minimum
wage development. The coverage of GMI is also
low (
61
), with estimates of up to 60 % of intended
beneficiaries not receiving benefits, and Roma
being underrepresented. The low take-up may be
caused by the following factors: a rather strict
means test; the required registration with the
Labour Office for at least six months; and the
requirement to work without remuneration for four
hours a day 14 days a month in community work
programmes. As a result, a growing number of
people are eligible neither for unemployment
benefits nor for GMI. For 49 % of adults in poor
(
60
) Total social protection expenditure per inhabitant were at
2.133 purchasing power standard (PPS) units (converted as
to account for price level differences between countries) in
BG in 2012, which is more than three times less than the
EU-28 average of 7,272 PPS units.
(
61
) Tasseva, I. ‘Evaluating the Performance of Means-Tested
Benefits in Bulgaria,’ Institute for Social and Economic
Research (2012-18), 2012.
51
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3.5. Poverty and social exclusion
and jobless households, social benefits represent
less than 10 % of the household equivalised
income. It is reflected in the high poverty gap and
severe material deprivation rates for the working
age population. Low GMI coverage hinders the
activation of the inactive population.
The provision of effective activation support to
beneficiaries of social assistance is impeded by
the limited cooperation between agencies that
provide benefits/social assistance and labour
market
integration
services.
Vulnerable
population groups are served by various agencies –
the Employment Agency, the Agency for Social
Assistance and the National Social Security
Institute. Appropriate institutional cooperation
between the various offices, however, is often
weak and not focused on an integrated approach
aiming at labour market inclusion. The high and
increasing caseload of PES staff affects the
provision of quality support to people on social
assistance, despite the requirement of monthly
visas by the Employment Agency. The newly-
developed Social Services Act, which will aim at
integrating the provision of all social services in
one legislative act, is expected to be prepared for
discussions and adoption by summer 2016.
52
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3.6. BUSINESS AND ADMINISTRATIVE ENVIRONMENTS
The business environment has not improved
significantly
in
recent
years.
Public
administration is less supportive of SMEs in
comparison with the rest of the EU (
62
).
Implementation of important measures is still
behind schedule. According to the World Bank’s
‘Doing Business’ report 2016, Bulgaria ranks 38th
in ease-of-doing business (Graph 3.6.1). The
country moved to the low-range of geographical
peers due to the slower pace of reforms. No
changes in the main policy indicators have been
observed in 2015. The lengthy and burdensome
procedures for paying taxes, getting electricity,
enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency
remain. Despite some improvements, the country
continues to have one of the weakest results in the
EU with regard to government effectiveness and
regulatory quality and ranks last for the rule of law
(as understood in this context) and prevention of
corruption (
63
).
Graph 3.6.1:
Ease of doing business
Distance to the frontier of best performance
80
79.49 78.88
businesses and hence has a negative impact on
investment and the overall business climate. In a
2015 study, 61% of private sector managers (10
percentage points more than in 2013) said that
corruption is a problem for them when doing
business, compared with an EU average of 40%.
Only 14% (the lowest percentage in the EU) say
that Bulgaria applies measures against corruption
impartially (down from 23% in 2013) (
65
). The
World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness
Report 2015–2016 ranks corruption among the
most problematic factors when doing business in
Bulgaria (
66
). The World Bank governance
indicators ranked Bulgaria 28th in the EU for
combating corruption in 2014 data (
67
). Bulgaria
has the highest perceived level of corruption in the
EU according to the Transparency International’s
2015 Corruption Perceptions Index, which
measures the perceived levels of public sector
corruption (
68
).
The institutions with responsibility for
preventing and combating corruption remain
weak and fragmented.
In April 2015 a
comprehensive anti-corruption strategy was
proposed by the government, containing concrete
measures to address the problems. However, this
faced a major set-back in September, when
Parliament failed to adopt a new law establishing a
unified anti-corruption authority and reforming the
system concerning conflicts of interest and asset
declarations for public officials. Convictions for
high-level corruption remain few in number, partly
due to judicial processes being hampered by
procedural and legal obstacles (
69
).
Public administration
78.06
76.45
75.62 75.62
2016
2010
75
73.95 73.78 73.72
72.71 72.57
70
65
60
55
50
EE
LT
LV
PL
SK
SI
CZ
RO
BG
HR
HU
An economy’s distance to frontier is reflected on a scale
from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the lowest performance
and 100 represents the frontier.
Source:
World Bank, Doing Business Report 2016
Institutional shortcomings and concerns about
corruption affect key sectors of the economy
(
64
).
Corruption remains a serious concern among
(
62
) 2015 SBA Fact-sheet, Bulgaria
(
63
) The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2015 Update
(
64
) According to the Global Competitiveness report of the
World Economic Forum the main obstacles to
competitiveness are the corruption, bureaucracy, access to
financing
and
unstable
policies.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitiven
essReport_2014-15.pdf
Bulgaria has adopted an adequate strategic
framework towards reform and modernisation
of public administration but the initiated
reforms still do not bear fruit.
According to the
2015 Sustainable Governance Indicators (
70
),
Bulgaria has a relatively weak governance with
(
65
)
(
66
)
(
67
)
(
68
)
(
69
)
(
70
)
2015 Flash Eurobarometer 428.
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/gcr/2015-2016/BGR.pdf
info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home
https://www.transparency.org/cpi2015
CVM report, January 2016: COM(2016) 40.
Bertelsmann Stiftung 2015, Sustainable Governance
Indicators for 41 countries (EU MS and OECD members),
http://www.sgi-network.org/2015/.
53
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3.6. Business and administrative environments
low overall ranking (36 out of 41) in the area of
executive capacity and executive accountability
(rank 32). Strategic planning has been focused on
EU
membership
requirements,
while
implementation and coordination of policies are
often weakened by the reversal of decisions, as
witnessed by reforms launched in the public
security sector. Monitoring of institutional
arrangements mainly takes place after problems
emerge.
Steps are being taken to follow up on strategic
planning, but progress is slow and often reform
decisions are postponed.
After adoption of the
strategies for development of public administration
and for e-government in March 2014, certain
follow-up steps have been undertaken in particular
related to e-government. However, the outcome
will depend on the speed and quality of
implementation of the proposed legislative and
structural changes. The government has approved
a proposal for the creation of a dedicated e-
governance agency for strategic and budgetary
planning of e-government policies across the state
administration. Follow-up of these decisions
remains crucial.
Frequent changes of the legal framework affect
predictability and create uncertainty for
businesses.
Stakeholders are involved at a
relatively advanced stage of the policy making
process and are given short time for reaction.
Impact assessment of new legislation is prepared
only sporadically and specific impacts on SMEs
are not considered during the legislative process.
Legislative amendments aiming to overcome these
shortcomings and improve the policy making
process have been proposed by the government,
but they are still pending the adoption of the
parliament. Enforcement of legislation also
remains a problem.
In spite of the implemented regulatory reforms,
the need for reducing the administrative burden
and cutting red tape remains significant.
In
2013-2014 three reform packages for reducing the
regulatory burden on businesses and citizens were
adopted with practically no progress in 2015 (in
total 59 out of 138 measures were implemented).
In addition, three action plans for administrative
burden reduction were adopted for the period 2010
– 2017. As of September 2015 104 measures
(62%) of the second action plan and 9 measures
(7%) from the third action plan have been
implemented.
The civil service needs modernisation.
Amendments to the Civil Service Act have been
proposed to improve the transparency of selection
via centralised competitions and merit-based
career development of civil servants. The
performance-based remuneration for civil servants
introduced in 2012 produces controversial results
and in many cases only intensifies the deficiencies
in the human resources management system
primarily due to non-functioning appraisal system
and diverging practices.
Progress in strengthening the role of the
administration and efficiency at local level has
been limited, despite the support of the
European Social Fund.
The legal base for
complex administrative services has been created,
but practical implementation is lagging behind.
The introduction of shared services across
administrations is on the level of a developed
concept.
Public procurement
Persistent difficulties with public procurement
are a major stumbling block for the effective
use of European Structural and Investment
Funds in Bulgaria.
Systematic court appeals
significantly delay works on the ground,
irregularities lead to interruption of payments and
financial corrections, management and control
systems often fail to detect and prevent tendering
errors. Bulgaria remains one of the Member States
which use the most the negotiated procedures
without prior publication (8%) and award contracts
mainly on the basis of the lowest price criterion
(63%). These problems ultimately affect the
quality of public services and the economy,
jeopardising the lasting impact of EU funds
invested in the country.
Bulgaria has launched an ambitious public
procurement reform process but many elements
still need implementation.
The most tangible
result so far of the National Strategy on Public
Procurement is the recently adopted law on public
procurement. It can be beneficial only if
implemented together with other decisive changes
ranging from the adoption of accurate
implementing
regulatory
measures,
the
54
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3.6. Business and administrative environments
streamlining of consistent ex-ante and ex-post
controls, improved efficiency of the appeal system,
standardisation of procedures, increasing the
administrative capacity of relevant public bodies.
The lack of transparency in the bidding process
is partly due to the still incomplete process of
installing the full range of e-procurement
platforms.
More than a half of the Bulgarian
companies consider that corruption prevented them
from winning a public tender or public
procurement contract (
71
). The gains deriving from
the switch to e-platforms could improve overall
public procurement administrative efficiency by
cutting the duration of the purchase-to-pay cycle,
reducing the administrative burden and improving
traceability. These, in turn, would reduce the risk
of corruption and fraud while leading to lower
prices and better quality, by stimulating
competition.
Judicial system
results based on the reform plans are yet in place
(
72
).
At the end of June 2015, parliament adopted
amendments to the Civil Procedure Code to
bring rules in civil proceedings in line with EU
legislation.
This should facilitate the cross-border
recognition and enforcement of certain civil law
decisions.
While random allocation of cases has in theory
existed in Bulgaria for some time, in practice
this has continued to be a point of controversy.
This has implications for the independence of the
judiciary, as random allocation is an important
instrument to safeguard the independence and
impartiality
of
judges.
After
several
postponements, in October 2015, the Supreme
Judicial Council launched an updated IT system
for random allocation of court cases. However, the
positive impact of this measure still needs to be
proven after a sufficient length of satisfactory
application in practice (
73
).
Important elements to enhance the quality of
justice are still missing (
74
).In
Bulgaria there is no
regular evaluation system in place. ICT systems
for communication between courts and parties (e.g.
for the submission of claims) can contribute to
reducing delays and costs and to facilitating the
access to justice. In Bulgaria, however, the use of
ICT for communication between courts and parties
is still limited compared to other EU MS. Other
elements that can enhance the quality of justice
continue to be missing or are only provided to a
limited extent. For example, the promotion of and
incentives for Alternative Dispute Resolution for
civil and commercial cases is very limited in
Bulgaria, although these could represent an
important means of reducing workload at courts.
The trend appears positive as regards some
aspects of the efficiency of the judicial system,
in terms of time needed to resolve certain cases
and the capacity of courts to deal with their work
load, at least in some circumstances (
75
), although
the availability of detailed statistics on the judicial
(
72
)
(
73
)
(
74
)
(
75
)
CVM report, January 2016: COM(2016) 40.
CVM report, January 2016: COM(2016) 40.
2016 EU Justice Scoreboard (to be published soon).
2016 EU Justice Scoreboard.
Continuous deficiencies regarding the judicial
system raise concerns for businesses and have
an impact on the economy.
Despite the adoption
of a comprehensive judicial reform strategy in
2014 and its endorsement by the National
Assembly in January 2015, Bulgaria saw only
limited tangible results in 2015 in terms of
addressing
existing
deficiencies.
These
deficiencies concern primarily the quality of the
justice system and the independence of the
judiciary, with a negative impact on economic
relations, investor activities and business
engagement. The main concrete step taken in 2015
was the adoption in December of a new Law
Amending and Supplementing the Constitution.
The constitutional amendments aim at a reform of
the structure of the Supreme Judicial Council,
while at the same time strengthening the judicial
inspectorate, with a view to improving the
independence and integrity of the judiciary. The
amendments still need to be implemented and are
expected to be accompanied by the adoption of
other flanking legislation covering other aspects of
the judicial reform strategy. All in all, few tangible
(
71
) Flash Eurobarometer 428: 60% of the Bulgarian companies
say corruption prevented them from winning a public
tender or public procurement contract.
55
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3.6. Business and administrative environments
system remains an issue. There are important
differences in workload between courts, with
larger courts in general facing a higher workload.
As mentioned in section 2.2, the duration of
insolvency proceedings continues to be a
challenge.
In the past four years there has not been
any progress in reducing the length of these
proceedings, the duration of which remains among
the worst four Member States in the EU (
76
) . This
means that the time for creditors to recover their
credit is unduly excessive and could prevent them
from re-investing their money in other economic
activities. This again has a negative impact on the
overall economic recovery of the country and
shows once more the necessity to improve the
justice system as a key building block for an
investor-friendly business environment.
Access to
innovation
finance,
SMEs,
research
and
Graph 3.6.2:
Private equity investments as a percentage
of GDP, 2014
Europe
EE
CZ
HU
LV
LT
HR
PL
RO
SI
SK
BG
0
0.061
0.052
0.037
0.015
0.006
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.164
0.141
0.204
0.277
0.193
0.107
0.097
0.3
Source:
European Venture Capital Association, (2015),
Central and Eastern Europe Statistics 2014
Access to finance remains a challenge for SMEs
in Bulgaria.
The combination of balance sheet
repair, banking system reform, more efficient
supervision and consolidation will give a much-
needed boost to financial sector stability,
contributing to better financing conditions in the
longer term. Alternative financial instruments
providing support to start-ups are developing, but
still largely dependent on the public support
(Graph 3.6.2). The first angel investment network
was established in September 2015 and is expected
to finance the first projects in 2016. In October
2015, the European Commission adopted an
Operational Programme worth €102 million from
the European Regional Development Fund to
improve access to finance for small and medium-
sized enterprises. Investments under this
programme, in the form of bank guarantees, are
expected to generate between €400 million and
€600 million of fresh loans for SMEs, thanks to the
leverage effect of private investment.
(
76
) Data contained in the 2016 EU Justice Scoreboard.
The Points of Single Contact (PSC) in Bulgaria
do not provide sufficient sector-specific
information and do not present information in a
user-friendly way.
Due to the low availability of
e-procedures, it is currently not possible for
businesses to complete procedures online. E-
signatures from other Member States are not
always accepted and recognized by the competent
authorities' websites. Technical issues limit the
usability of the PSC portal.
The Bulgarian R&I system suffers from
inefficient
governance
structures,
fragmentation, weak long-term financial
commitment, very deficient incentives for high
quality research, absence of communication
between public and private sector research, and
a weak human resources base.
It is also
characterised by a lack of predictability and
transparency, and is insufficiently relying on
performance criteria to allocate its public R&I
funding. Overall, this does not create the necessary
framework conditions for stimulating investments
in business R&D activities and for innovation to
flourish. The Bulgarian economy is characterised
by a low level of innovation and all indicators of
innovation output and commercialisation of
innovations are well below the EU average (
77
).
Bulgaria also has low venture capital investments
(
77
) According to the Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015,
patent applications per billion GDP (in PPS €) in BG (0.50)
is the sixth lowest in the EU (EU-28 average 3.78).
56
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3.6. Business and administrative environments
coupled with a recent decline in performance (
78
).
However, starting from the lowest level in the EU,
the country's innovation performance seems to be
improving, in particular regarding business R&D
expenditures (
79
).
Far reaching improvements of the current R&I
system are required if performance is to be
enhanced
– from the level of research performers
to that of funding bodies. This includes the need
for independent, robust and coordinated
management of national and European R&I
funding programmes and instruments with
enhanced leverage of business investments. (
80
)
Recent policy responses such as the newly
established Council for Smart Growth and the
government intention to create a professional
agency for research and innovation are steps in the
right direction and require swift and ambitious
implementation.
Consumers
Confidence issues (
83
) are reflected in Bulgaria
having the second lowest share of population (18%
vs 53% EU28) that ordered goods or services over
the internet in 2015 in the EU and a below average
share of retailers that sell online to final consumers
(32% vs 41% EU28). In addition, only 6% of
Bulgarian SMEs sold online in 2015 (second
lowest in EU, 16% for the EU) (
84
).
Construction sector
Consumers’ trust in institutional and market
conditions and retailers’ compliance with
consumer rules are among the weakest in the
EU (
81
).
Bulgaria is one of the Member States
doing worst in terms of overall markets’
performance, as evaluated by consumers (
82
).
(
78
) According to the Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015,
venture capital investment in Bulgaria (0.002% of GDP) is
the second lowest in the EU (EU-28 average 0.62% of
GDP).
79
( ) Innovation Union Scoreboard 2015
(
80
) The Bulgarian authorities requested in December 2014 an
evaluation of their research and innovation (R&I) system
using the Horizon 2020 Policy Support Facility (PSF). The
PSF panel of high-level experts published in October 2015
a report with Policy Messages, supported by operational
recommendations on how to improve the performance of
Bulgarian R&I.
(
81
) Bulgarian consumers have the lowest level of trust in
organisations among EU consumers and are the most likely
to report illicit practices (unfair contract terms and extra
charges). At the same time the proportion of retailers
reporting unfair commercial practices is the second highest
in the EU and retailers’ assessment of compliance with
consumer legislation is the third lowest in the EU.
’Consumer Conditions Scoreboard 2015’
82
( ) The ‘Market Monitoring Survey 2015’ outlines the
performance of 42 markets as assessed by consumers. It
shows that Bulgaria is ranked among the 5 worst
performing countries in the EU for the 13 goods markets
assessed and below EU average for 21 out of the 29
services markets surveyed (to be published in the
upcoming "Consumer Markets Scoreboard 2016")
Bulgaria stands out as having one of the most
restrictive
regulatory
frameworks
for
construction services.
On the one hand, there are
burdensome authorisation procedures in place and
on the other, the mutual recognition principle is
mostly inoperative, due to the absence of mutual
recognition procedures (Graph 3.6.3). In some
cases the mutual recognition principle itself is not
in place. In practical terms, this represents a barrier
for foreign service-providers who need to
undertake once more authorisation and licensing
procedures, since the ones obtained in their
Member State of origin are not recognised in
Bulgaria. From an administrative point of view,
the procedures are complex and full electronic
handling of the application is not possible.
(
83
) ’Consumer Conditions Scoreboard 2015’. Both consumers'
and retailers’ confidence in online commerce are the
second lowest in the EU. Moreover, 62% of Bulgarian
online consumers still use cash on delivery for their online
purchases (highest in EU, 18% EU28), whereas only 31%
make use of a credit card (2
nd
lowest in EU, 52% EU28)
(
84
) Eurostat Community Survey on ICT usage in households
and by individuals, 2015 (isoc_ec_ibuy), Consumer
Conditions Scoreboard 2015’, Eurostat ICT usage by
enterprises, 2015 (isoc_ec_eseln2)
57
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3.6. Business and administrative environments
Graph 3.6.3:
Overall restrictiveness of authorisation
schemes in the construction sector
Bulgaria remains the most energy and carbon
intensive economy in the EU (
85
).
The lack of reforms in the past exacerbated the
problems in the energy sector.
Previous country
reports have pointed out the main shortcomings,
including: gas import dependency from a single
supplier and a single route, lack of day-ahead
market for electricity and natural gas revenues
from the regulated end-consumer-tariffs set below
corresponding costs of electricity utilities; low
consumer satisfaction and very limited or inability
to switch suppliers in gas and the supply of
electricity to households and small businesses (
86
).
DK
BG
PT
IT
PL
ES
FR
EL
SI
CZ
DE
FI
NL
UK
0
1
2
Horizontal authorisation schemes
3
Building permits
4
The least restrictive countries are associated with low
scores, and the most restrictive with high scores.
Source:
Ecorys (2015), Simplification and mutual
recognition in the construction sector under the Services
Directive, a study carried out for the European Commission,
DG GROW.
Railway sector
The state-owned railway operator continues to
face financial and restructuring difficulties.
In
the first quarter of 2015, its share in the rail freight
market dropped below 50 %; total rail freight,
however, increased. The development of passenger
transport by rail has been suffering from the
absence of other operators and the state not using
competitive tendering for public service contracts.
In the same period, the number of passengers
dropped by more than 15 %, given that 35
passenger services were cancelled following a
reduction in state compensation payments.
Railway undertakings complain about late
information on line possessions for the purpose of
line maintenance or construction.
Energy sector
Bulgaria has taken measures to improve the
functioning of the energy sector.
Bulgaria has set
up an Electricity System Security Fund to
guarantee the financial stability of the system. The
Fund is to be provisioned from sales of ETS
allowances and contributions from power
generators amounting to 5% of the monthly
revenues of these companies. An important step in
the liberalisation of the power market was
concluded in January 2016 with the start of
operation of the electricity day-ahead segment of
the Bulgarian Independent Energy Exchange.
Further efforts will be needed to ensure deep and
liquid trading volumes, as well as the possibility to
trade electricity on the forward segment and the
introduction of gas contracts. Adequate protection
mechanisms for vulnerable consumers and
amendments to the single buyer status of the
National Electric Company (NEK) remain to be
prepared.
Other measures addressing the financial
stability of the energy system will be assessed in
the coming months as new data emerges.
These
include the commitment to reduce administrative
costs in the companies of the Bulgarian Energy
Holding (BEH); the renegotiation of the power
purchasing agreements between BEH and the
thermal power generators(
87
) and the take-up of
recommendations from the 2016 World Bank
(
85
) Eurostat 2015, tsdec360
(
86
) Despite an improvement since 2013, the electricity market
in Bulgaria is still assessed by consumers as the worst
amongst such markets in the EU, whereas the gas market is
in the fourth worst position amongst other EU Member
States ‘Consumer Markets Scoreboard 2016’.
87
( ) Conditional on the capacity of BEH to pay its arrears.
For a long time urgent reforms in the electricity
sector have been delayed by a combination of
complex problems.
These include overcapacity of
power generation, expansion of renewable energy
sources based on generous public support schemes;
long-term power purchasing agreements; delays in
phasing out power plants that are non-compliant
with the Large Combustion Plants Directive; and a
weak and politically dependent energy regulator.
58
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3.6. Business and administrative environments
analysis of the financial situation of the energy
sector. The Bulgarian Government has also taken
steps to increase the resilience of the natural gas
system. In 2015 Bulgaria has started works on the
expansion of the underground gas storage facility,
refurbished several compressor stations and
expanded the internal high pressure grid. A final
investment decision was signed for the
Interconnector with Greece. However, actual
construction of critical gas interconnectors with
Greece, Serbia and, Turkey has not started and the
operation of the link to Romania was delayed.
Bulgaria has also set out a political goal to
develop a regional gas hub.
There are a number
of essential prerequisites before this objective can
be achieved, in particular: 1) access to diversified
gas sources; 2) development of infrastructure
connecting Bulgaria to neighbouring countries
and/or gas sources, 3) a stable regulatory
framework; and 4) a well-developed trading
environment.
Bulgaria has a significant energy-saving
potential that can be achieved through the full
and effective implementation of the energy
efficiency
legislation
(Energy
Efficiency
Directive, Energy Performance of Buildings
Directive, buildings codes, energy market rules).
The most important challenges remain in energy
renovation of multi-flat family buildings; the
modernisation of the district heating networks and
the energy intensity of industry and SMEs.
Resource efficiency
Bulgaria's resource productivity in 2014 - in
terms of value produced per kg of resources
used - was EUR 0.2912 /kg, well below the EU
average of EUR 1.9492 /kg
(88)
. Improving
resource efficiency could stimulate investment,
with both short-term and long-term benefits for the
economy, environment and employment.
(
88
) Source: Eurostat (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/europe-
2020-indicators/resource-efficient-europe)
59
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ANNEX A
Overview Table
Commitments
2015 country-specific recommendations (CSRs)
CSR 1
Avoid a structural deterioration in public finances in
2015 and achieve an adjustment of 0,5 % of GDP in
2016. Take decisive measures to improve tax
collection and address the shadow economy, based
on a comprehensive risk analysis and evaluation of
past measures. Improve the cost-effectiveness of the
healthcare system, in particular, by reviewing the
pricing of healthcare and strengthening outpatient
care and primary care.
Bulgaria has made
some progress
in addressing
CSR1 (this overall assessment of CSR 1 does not
include an assessment of compliance with the
Stability and Growth Pact).
Some
progress
in addressing the part of CSR1 on
tax collection. Bulgaria made stricter the control
requirements for excise goods, collected more
revenues form excise duties and signed agreements
to broaden exchange of tax information.
Nevertheless voluntary tax compliance remained a
problem, including the time to comply with tax
legislation. Bulgaria adopted a Single Tax
Compliance Strategy indicating a more holistic tax
policy approach but the Strategy lacks assessment of
previous anti-fraud measures and a comprehensive
risk analysis which identifies the most important tax
collection shortages.
Some progress
in addressing CSR1 in the part on
healthcare. The Bulgarian government made the
National Health Map mandatory for the signing of
contracts between the National Health Insurance
Fund and hospitals. This is expected to improve the
efficiency of spending in healthcare; however the
Map is expected to be used as from April 2016,
therefore results of its implementation are to be seen
in coming months at the earliest. 25 out of 3,000
hospital procedures will soon be authorised to be
provided in outpatient facilities. This may lower
costs of health care system's functioning and be a
first step of putting more emphasis on ambulatory
care.
CSR 2
By December 2015, complete a system-wide
independent asset-quality review and a bottom-up
stress test of the banking sector, in close cooperation
with European bodies. Perform a portfolio screening
for the pension funds and insurance sectors. Review
Bulgaria has made
some progress
in addressing
CSR2.
Some progress
in completing a system-wide asset
quality review and stress test of the banking sector.
A contract has been signed with an independent
consultant to assist the central bank in conducting
Summary assessment(
89
)
(
89
) The following categories are used to assess progress in implementing the 2015 country-specific recommendations of the
Council Recommendation: No progress: The Member State has neither announced nor adopted any measures to address the
country-specific recommendation. This category also applies if a Member State has commissioned a study group to evaluate
possible measures. Limited progress: The Member State has announced some measures to address the country-specific
recommendation, but these measures appear insufficient and/or their adoption/implementation is at risk. Some progress: The
Member State has announced or adopted measures to address the country-specific recommendation. These measures are
promising, but not all of them have been implemented yet and implementation is not certain in all cases. Substantial progress:
The Member State has adopted measures, most of which have been implemented. These measures go a long way in addressing
the country-specific recommendation. Fully addressed: The Member State has adopted and implemented measures that address
the country-specific recommendation appropriately.
60
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A. Overview Table
and fortify banking and non-banking financial sector
supervision, including by strengthening the bank-
resolution and deposit-guarantee frameworks.
Improve corporate governance in financial
intermediaries, including by tackling concentration
risk and related-party exposures.
the exercise and the review of the quality of the
banks' assets has been launched.
Limited progress
in performing a portfolio
screening for the pension funds and insurance
sectors. A contract with an independent consultant
should be signed as soon as possible in order to
prepare the methodology and launch the technical
part of the exercise.
Some progress
in fortifying banking supervision,
while strengthening corporate governance and
tackling concentration risk and related-party
exposures. In particular, a plan to reform and
develop banking supervision has been published,
building on recommendations by the IMF and the
World Bank, and is being implemented. Moreover,
the authorities have introduced legislation to
transpose the Bank Recovery and Resolution
Directive and the Deposit Guarantee Schemes
Directive into national law.
Limited progress
in tackling concentration risk and
related-party exposures in the non-banking financial
sector. The reviews of both bank and non-bank
financial intermediaries should be performed in a
way that is useful for the identification of such
practices. This will allow the authorities to make the
necessary adjustments to both the relevant
legislation and supervisory practices.
CSR 3
Develop an integrated approach for groups at the
margin of the labour market, in particular older
workers and young people not in employment,
education or training. In consultation with the social
partners and in accordance with national practices,
establish a transparent mechanism for setting the
minimum wage and minimum social security
contributions in the light of their impact on in-work
poverty, job creation and competitiveness.
Bulgaria has made
limited progress
addressing
CSR3.
Limited progress
in developing an integrated
approach for groups at the margin of the labour
market. The Public Employment Services are hiring
youth mediators to reach and activate youth NEETs.
The overall effect of the measure is still limited. In
the first nine months of 2015, 71 000 individual
plans for youth registered with the PES were
prepared. From September 2014 to September 2015,
43 000 people over 50 years old started work on the
primary market, additional 16 000 started subsidised
employment.
Limited progress
in the part on minimum wage and
minimum social security thresholds. The
government plans to establish the criteria for the
mechanism for setting up minimum wages towards
the end of 2016. Minimum wages per economic
sectors should start being negotiated between the
61
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A. Overview Table
social partners from 2017.
CSR 4
Adopt the reform of the School Education Act, and
increase the participation in education of
disadvantaged children, in particular Roma, by
improving access to good-quality early schooling.
Bulgaria has made
some progress
addressing CSR
4.
Substantial progress
in addressing CSR4 in the
part on the adoption of the School Education Act.
The School Education Act was adopted in October
2015. All the subsequent educational standards are
planned to be designed and adopted by August 2016.
Limited progress
addressing CSR4 in the part on
improving access to good-quality early schooling for
disadvantaged children.
CSR 5
With a view to improving the investment climate,
prepare a comprehensive reform of the insolvency
framework drawing on international best practice and
expertise, in particular to improve mechanisms for
pre-insolvency and out-of-court restructuring.
Bulgaria has made
limited progress
addressing
CSR 5.
Limited progress
in improving the mechanisms for
pre-insolvency and out-of-court restructuring
Europe 2020 (national targets and progress)
Employment rate target: 76%
Early school leaving target: 11%
Tertiary education target: 36%
At risk of poverty target in numbers of persons:
Decrease by 260 000 (baseline 2008: 1 632 000)
Greenhouse
gas
(GHG)
emissions
target:
20% in 2020 compared to 2005 (in non-ETS sectors)
According to the latest national projections
submitted to the Commission and taking into
account existing measures, it is expected that the
target will be achieved: -5.5% in 2020 as compared
with 2005 (by a margin of 25 percentage points).
65.1% in 2014.
12.9% in 2014.
30.9% in 2014.
1 578 000 in 2014.
Non-ETS 2014 target:13%
The change in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions
between 2005 and 2014 was 1%. The non-ETS
emissions in 2014 were 12 percentage points below
62
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A. Overview Table
the 2014 target set by the Effort Sharing Decision.
2020 Renewable energy target: 16%
With a renewable energy share of 18% in 2014,
Bulgaria is already above its 16% target for 2020.
With 5.3% share of RES in transport in 2014,
Bulgaria is half-way towards reaching the binding
10% RES target in transport.
Energy efficiency target.
Bulgaria's 2020 energy efficiency target is 16.9 Mtoe
expressed in primary energy consumption (8.6 Mtoe
expressed in final energy consumption.)
Bulgaria updated its 2020 energy efficiency target in
2014. If the trend in primary and final energy
consumption observed in the period 2005-2013
continues up to 2020, Bulgaria will meet its national
target
Preliminary 2014 Eurostat data indicates that the
primary energy consumption in Bulgaria stood at
17.2 Mtoe and the final energy consumption was 9.0
Mtoe.
R&D target: 1.5% of GDP
0.8% (2014)
R&D intensity increased from 0.65% of GDP in
2013 to 0.8% in 2014, but remains the fourth lowest
in the EU. The increase in R&D intensity is mainly
driven by an increase in business R&D intensity
(investments by foreign companies in R&D
services, and clinical trials in particular). In 2014
R&D intensity in Bulgaria was composed of 0.27%
public R&D intensity, 0.52% business R&D
intensity and 0.01% private non-profit R&D
expenditure.
63
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ANNEX B
MIP scoreboard
Table B.1:
The MIP scoreboard for Bulgaria
Thresholds
Current account balance,
(% of GDP)
3 year average
-4%/6%
-35%
2009
-18.4
-101.8*
2010
-10.6
-95.6
2011
-2.9
-85.2
2012
-0.1
-79.8
2013
0.8
-75.0
2014
0.9
-73.4
Net international investment position (% of GDP)
Real effective exchange
External imbalances rate - 42 trading partners,
and competitiveness HICP deflator
Export market share - %
of world exports
Nominal unit labour cost
index (2010=100)
3 years % change
±5% & ±11%
18.3
9.7
1.9
-4.0
-1.0
-2.6
5 years % change
-6%
18.3*
14.9*
16.6*
3.5
4.4
6.7
3 years % change
9% & 12%
35.5
32.5
20.4
13.8p
15.3p
12.5p
Deflated house prices (% y-o-y change)
6%
-21.0e
-12.3p
-9.6p
-5.3p
0.4p
1.5p
Private sector credit flow as % of GDP, consolidated
14%
4.7
3.7
1.4
3.0
7.3
-0.3
Internal imbalances
Private sector debt as % of GDP, consolidated
General government sector debt as % of GDP
Unemployment rate
3 year average
133%
60%
10%
16.5%
134.1
13.7
6.4
1.3
134.3
15.5
7.6i
-5.4
125.2
15.3
9.5
5.4
125.7
17.6
11.3
10.2
132.2
18.0
12.2
4.3
124.3
27.0
12.2
7.2
Total financial sector liabilities (% y-o-y change)
Activity rate - % of total population aged 15-64 (3 years
change in p.p)
-0.2%
2.7
0.2
-1.9b
-0.1
1.9
3.1
New employment
indicators
Long-term unemployment rate - % of active population
aged 15-74 (3 years change in p.p)
0.5%
-2.0
0.7
3.4
3.8
2.6
0.6
Youth unemployment rate - % of active population aged
15-24 (3 years change in p.p)
2%
-3.2
7.7i
13.1
13.0
6.6
-1.2
Flags: *: BPM5/ESA95 figure. e: estimated. p: provisional.
"Note: Figures highlighted are those falling outside the threshold established in the European Commission's Alert Mechanism
Report. For REER and ULC, the first threshold applies to euro area Member States.
Source:
Source: European Commission
64
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ANNEX C
Standard Tables
Table C.1:
Financial market indicators
Total assets of the banking sector (% of GDP)
Share of assets of the five largest banks (% of total assets)
Foreign ownership of banking system (% of total assets)
Financial soundness indicators:
- non-performing loans (% of total loans)
- capital adequacy ratio (%)
- return on equity (%)
Bank loans to the private sector (year-on-year % change)
Lending for house purchase (year-on-year % change)
Loan to deposit ratio
Central Bank liquidity as % of liabilities
1)
Private debt (% of GDP)
Gross external debt (% of GDP)
2)
- public
- private
Long-term interest rate spread versus Bund (basis points)*
Credit default swap spreads for sovereign securities (5-year)*
2010
106.3
55.2
80.5
11.9
17.4
7.8
1.6
3.7
117.4
0.0
134.3
7.6
72.1
326.2
254.2
2011
103.0
52.6
75.0
15.0
17.6
5.7
3.8
1.3
107.6
0.0
125.2
6.8
66.7
274.8
248.6
2012
108.9
50.4
73.0
16.6
16.6
6.3
3.5
1.0
102.4
0.0
125.7
8.3
66.5
300.3
227.7
2013
113.1
49.9
69.6
16.9
17.0
5.7
1.1
-0.8
94.1
0.0
132.2
8.1
66.1
190.3
102.1
2014
110.8
55.0
75.5
16.7
21.9
7.2
2.2
-1.7
86.0
0.0
124.3
14.1
65.4
218.4
119.4
2015
110.6
-
-
-
-
-
-0.4
-0.7
77.5
0.0
-
13.1
55.9
199.6
153.8
Notes:
1) Latest data October 2015.
2) Latest data September 2015. Monetary authorities, monetary and financial institutions are not included.
* Measured in basis points.
Source:
IMF (financial soundness indicators); European Commission (long-term interest rates); World Bank (gross external
debt); Eurostat (private debt); ECB (all other indicators).
65
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C. Standard Tables
Table C.2:
Labour market and social indicators
2010
Employment rate
(% of population aged 20-64)
Employment growth
(% change from previous year)
Employment rate of women
(% of female population aged 20-64)
Employment rate of men
(% of male population aged 20-64)
Employment rate of older workers
(% of population aged 55-64)
Part-time employment (% of total employment,
aged 15 years and over)
Fixed term employment (% of employees with a fixed term
contract, aged 15 years and over)
Transitions from temporary to permanent employment
Unemployment rate
age group 15-74)
(1)
2011
62.9
-2.2
59.8
66.0
44.6
2.4
4.1
38.6
11.3
6.3
25.0
21.8
11.8
27.3
7.0
2012
63.0
-2.5
60.2
65.8
45.7
2.4
4.5
40.9
12.3
6.8
28.1
21.5
12.5
26.9
8.0
2013
63.5
-0.4
60.7
66.4
47.4
2.7
5.7
24.5
13.0
7.4
28.4
21.6
12.5
29.4
11.0
2014
65.1
0.4
62.0
68.1
50.0
2.7
5.3
29.2
11.4
6.9
23.8
20.2
12.9
30.9
-
2015
(4)
66.8
0.4
63.6
70.0
52.1
2.4
4.7
-
9.6
5.9
21.7
-
-
-
-
64.7
-3.9
60.8
68.6
44.9
2.4
4.5
36.7
10.3
4.7
21.9
21.8
13.9
27.7
6.0
(% active population,
Long-term unemployment rate
(2)
(% of labour force)
Youth unemployment rate
(% active population aged 15-24)
Youth NEET
(3)
rate (% of population aged 15-24)
Early leavers from education and training (% of pop. aged 18-24
with at most lower sec. educ. and not in further education or
training)
Tertiary educational attainment (% of population aged 30-34
having successfully completed tertiary education)
Formal childcare (30 hours or over; % of population aged less
than 3 years)
Notes:
(1) Unemployed persons are all those who were not employed but had actively sought work and were ready to begin
working immediately or within two weeks.
(2) Long-term unemployed are peoples who have been unemployed for at least 12 months.
(3) Not in Education Employment or Training.
(4) Average of first three quarters of 2015. Data for total unemployment and youth unemployment rates are seasonally
adjusted.
Source:
European Commission (EU Labour Force Survey)
66
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C. Standard Tables
Table C.3:
Labour market and social indicators (continued)
Expenditure on social protection benefits (% of GDP)
Sickness/healthcare
Invalidity
Old age and survivors
Family/children
Unemployment
Housing and social exclusion n.e.c.
Total
of which: means-tested benefits
Social inclusion indicators
People at risk of poverty or social exclusion
(% of total population)
Children at risk of poverty or social exclusion
(% of people aged 0-17)
(3)
(1)
2009
3.7
1.3
8.1
1.9
0.5
0.0
15.6
0.7
2009
46.2
47.3
21.8
41.9
6.9
7.4
17.4
2755
0.8
5.9
2010
4.1
1.3
8.6
1.9
0.6
0.0
16.8
0.8
2010
49.2
49.8
20.7
45.7
8.0
7.7
23.6
2869
0.9
5.9
2011
4.2
1.2
8.1
1.8
0.6
0.0
16.1
0.7
2011
49.1
51.8
22.2
43.6
11.0
8.2
19.0
2690
8.0
6.5
2012
4.2
1.2
8.1
1.7
0.6
0.0
16.1
0.7
2012
49.3
52.3
21.2
44.1
12.5
7.4
18.1
2553
2.4
6.1
2013
4.4
1.4
8.6
1.8
0.5
0.0
17.0
0.7
2013
48.0
51.5
21.0
43.0
13.0
7.2
21.3
2549
3.2
6.6
2014
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2014
40.1
45.2
21.8
33.1
12.1
9.2
20.1
2875
#N/A
6.8
At-risk-of-poverty rate
(2)
(% of total population)
Severe material deprivation rate (% of total population)
Proportion of people living in low work intensity households
(4)
(% of people aged 0-59)
In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate (% of persons employed)
Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on reducing
poverty
Poverty thresholds, expressed in national currency at constant
prices
(5)
Gross disposable income (households; growth %)
Inequality of income distribution (S80/S20 income quintile
share ratio)
Notes:
(1) People at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE): individuals who are at risk of poverty (AROP) and/or suffering from
severe material deprivation (SMD) and/or living in households with zero or very low work intensity (LWI).
(2) At-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP): proportion of people with an equivalised disposable income below 60 % of the national
equivalised median income.
(3) Proportion of people who experience at least four of the following forms of deprivation: not being able to afford to i) pay
their rent or utility bills, ii) keep their home adequately warm, iii) face unexpected expenses, iv) eat meat, fish or a protein
equivalent every second day, v) enjoy a week of holiday away from home once a year, vi) have a car, vii) have a washing
machine, viii) have a colour TV, or ix) have a telephone.
(4) People living in households with very low work intensity: proportion of people aged 0-59 living in households where the
adults (excluding dependent children) worked less than 20 % of their total work-time potential in the previous 12 months.
(5) For EE, CY, MT, SI and SK, thresholds in nominal values in euros; harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) = 100 in 2006
(2007 survey refers to 2006 incomes)
Source:
For expenditure for social protection benefits ESSPROS; for social inclusion EU-SILC.
67
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C. Standard Tables
Table C.4:
Structural policy and business environment indicators
Performance indicators
Labour productivity (real, per person employed, y-o-y)
Labour productivity in industry
Labour productivity in construction
Labour productivity in market services
Unit labour costs (ULC) (whole economy, y-o-y)
ULC in industry
ULC in construction
ULC in market services
Business environment
Time needed to enforce contracts
Time needed to start a business
(1)
2009
6.92
20.84
-0.30
4.48
-0.91
10.15
2009
(days)
564
49.0
1.38
2009
0.51
4.58
28
19
84
na
(1)
2010
4.30
0.75
6.18
7.89
4.26
3.16
2010
564
18.0
na
2010
0.59
4.10
28
19
84
na
2011
9.77
8.38
2.75
-4.57
-1.28
5.90
2011
564
18.0
0.59
2011
0.55
3.82
29
20
87
na
2012
4.27
0.35
0.74
1.37
3.24
9.40
2012
564
18.0
na
2012
0.62
3.68
29
21
86
-3.53
2003
na
na
na
na
2013
2.85
4.81
2.48
3.63
2.34
2.09
2013
564
18.0
0.86
2013
0.65
na
30
22
86
na
2008
na
na
na
na
2014
1.28
-1.92
1.38
5.57
11.81
5.36
2014
564
18.0
0.97
2014
0.80
na
32
24
86
-2.56
2013
1.57
0.20
na
2.45
(days)
Outcome of applications by SMEs for bank loans
(2)
Research and innovation
R&D intensity
Total public expenditure on education as % of GDP, for all levels of
education combined
Number of science & technology people employed as % of total
employment
Population having completed tertiary education
(3)
Young people with upper secondary level education
Trade balance of high technology products as % of GDP
Product and service markets and competition
OECD product market regulation (PMR) , overall
OECD PMR , retail
OECD PMR , professional services
OECD PMR , network industries
(5)
(6)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(4)
Notes:
(1) The methodologies, including the assumptions, for this indicator are shown in detail here:
http://www.doingbusiness.org/methodology.
(2) Average of the answer to question Q7B_a. "[Bank loan]: If you applied and tried to negotiate for this type of financing
over the past six months, what was the outcome?". Answers were codified as follows: zero if received everything, one if
received most of it, two if only received a limited part of it, three if refused or rejected and treated as missing values if the
application is still pending or don't know.
(3) Percentage population aged 15-64 having completed tertiary education.
(4) Percentage population aged 20-24 having attained at least upper secondary education.
(5) Index: 0 = not regulated; 6 = most regulated. The methodologies of the OECD product market regulation indicators are
shown in detail here: http://www.oecd.org/competition/reform/indicatorsofproductmarketregulationhomepage.htm
(6) Aggregate OECD indicators of regulation in energy, transport and communications (ETCR).
Source:
European Commission; World Bank — Doing Business (for enforcing contracts and time to start a business); OECD (for
the product market regulation
indicators); SAFE (for outcome of SMEs' applications for bank loans).
68
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C. Standard Tables
Table C.5:
Green growth
2009
kgoe / €
kg / €
kg / €
kg / €
% GDP
%
%
% of value
added
ratio
% GDP
kgoe / €
% of value
added
% GDP
€ / kWh
€ / kWh
% GDP
% GDP
%
%
kgoe / €
kg / €
%
HHI
HHI
0.66
2.08
4.38
-
-5.0
13.16
3.2
34.1
3.2
2.9
0.48
99.1
12.47
0.06
0.03
0.01
0.00
19.9
55.5
1.92
5.41
45.1
57.1
0.26
2010
0.67
2.17
4.32
5.99
-5.8
14.08
-3.7
34.1
3.1
2.8
0.51
99.1
12.34
0.07
0.03
0.00
0.01
24.5
55.6
1.77
4.94
39.6
69.9
0.27
2011
0.71
2.33
4.71
-
-6.3
11.94
-0.4
34.1
3.1
2.7
0.50
99.1
13.09
0.07
0.03
0.00
0.01
26.2
60.6
2.09
5.82
36.0
68.3
0.29
2012
0.67
2.15
4.62
5.67
-6.9
13.67
6.5
-
3.2
2.7
0.46
-
13.14
0.07
0.04
0.00
0.01
25.0
57.4
2.20
6.03
36.1
72.9
0.27
2013
0.61
1.94
4.44
-
-6.2
15.01
-2.9
-
3.3
2.8
0.47
-
13.01
0.08
0.04
0.00
0.00
30.1
58.5
1.89
5.05
37.8
68.0
0.25
2014
-
-
4.55
-
-5.7
14.05
-1.3
-
3.6
2.7
-
-
-
0.08
0.03
0.00
0.00
-
58.5
-
-
-
-
-
Green growth performance
Macroeconomic
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Resource intensity (reciprocal of resource productivity)
Waste intensity
Energy balance of trade
Weighting of energy in HICP
Difference between energy price change and inflation
Real unit of energy cost
Ratio of labour taxes to environmental taxes
Environmental taxes
Sectoral
Industry energy intensity
Real unit energy cost for manufacturing industry
Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy
Electricity prices for medium-sized industrial users
Gas prices for medium-sized industrial users
Public R&D for energy
Public R&D for environment
Municipal waste recycling rate
Share of GHG emissions covered by ETS*
Transport energy intensity
Transport carbon intensity
Security of energy supply
Energy import dependency
Aggregated supplier concentration index
Diversification of energy mix
General explanation of the table items:
All macro intensity indicators are expressed as a ratio of a physical quantity to GDP (in 2005 prices)
Energy intensity: gross inland energy consumption (in kgoe) divided by GDP (in EUR)
Carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions (in kg CO2 equivalents) divided by GDP (in EUR)
Resource intensity: domestic material consumption (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)
Waste intensity: waste (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)
Energy balance of trade: the balance of energy exports and imports, expressed as % of GDP
Weighting of energy in HICP: the proportion of "energy" items in the consumption basket used for the construction of the
HICP
Difference between energy price change and inflation: energy component of HICP, and total HICP inflation (annual %
change)
Real unit energy cost: real energy costs as a percentage of total value added for the economy
Environmental taxes and labour taxes : from European Commission, ‘Taxation trends in the European Union’
Industry energy intensity: final energy consumption of industry (in kgoe) divided by gross value added of industry (in 2005
EUR)
Real unit energy costs for manufacturing industry: real costs as a percentage of value added for manufacturing sectors
Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy: share of gross value added of the energy-intensive industries in GDP
Electricity and gas prices for medium-sized industrial users: consumption band 500–20 00MWh and 10 000–100 000 GJ; figures
excl. VAT.
Municipal waste recycling rate: ratio of recycled municipal waste to total municipal waste
Public R&D for energy or for the environment: government spending on R&D (GBAORD) for these categories as % of GDP
Proportion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions covered by EU Emission Trading System (ETS): based on greenhouse gas
emissions (excl land use, land use change and forestry) as reported by Member States to the European Environment Agency
Transport energy intensity: final energy consumption of transport activity (kgoe) divided by transport industry gross value
added (in 2005 EUR)
Transport carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions in transport activity divided by gross value added of the transport
sector
Energy import dependency: net energy imports divided by gross inland energy consumption incl. consumption of
international bunker fuels
Aggregated supplier concentration index: covers oil, gas and coal. Smaller values indicate larger diversification and hence
lower risk.
Diversification of the energy mix: Herfindahl index over natural gas, total petrol products, nuclear heat, renewable energies
and solid fuels
* European Commission and European Environment Agency
Source:
European Commission (Eurostat) unless indicated otherwise
69