kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

Europaudvalget 2017
KOM (2017) 0090
Offentligt

EUROPEAN

COMMISSION

Brussels, 22.2.2017

SWD(2017) 75 final

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

Country Report France 2017

Including an In-Depth Review on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic

imbalances

Accompanying the document

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE

EUROGROUP

2017 European Semester: Assessment of progress on structural reforms,

prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances, and results of in-depth reviews

under Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011

{COM(2017) 90 final}

{SWD(2017) 67 final to SWD(2017) 93 final}

EN

EN

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

CONTENTS

Executive summary

1.

2.

3.

4.

Economic situation and outlook

Progress with country-specific recommendations

Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Reform priorities

4.1.

4.2.

4.3.

4.4.

4.5.

Public finances and taxation

Financial sector

Labour market, education and social policies

Competitiveness

Sectoral policies

1

4

10

13

21

21

29

32

39

48

A.

B.

C.

Overview Table

MIP Scoreboard

Standard Tables

54

61

62

References

67

LIST OF TABLES

1.1.

2.1.

3.1.

4.2.1.

4.4.1.

Key economic, financial and social indicators – France

Summary Table on 2016 CSR assessment

MIP Assessment Matrix (*) – France 2017

Financial soundness indicators, all banks in France

Labour productivity growth (per person employed) in France and in the rest of the euro

area

B.1.

C.1.

C.2.

C.3.

C.4.

C.5.

The MIP scoreboard for France

Financial market indicators

Labour market and social indicators

Labour market indicators (cont.)

Product market performance and policy indicators

Green growth

42

61

62

63

64

65

66

9

11

19

29

LIST OF GRAPHS

1.1.

Contributions to GDP growth (2010-2018)

4

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

1.2.

1.3.

1.4.

1.5.

1.6.

3.1.

3.2.

4.1.1.

4.1.2.

4.1.3.

4.1.4.

4.1.5.

4.1.6.

4.2.1.

4.3.1.

4.4.1.

4.4.2.

4.4.3.

4.4.4.

4.4.5.

4.4.6.

4.4.7.

Potential GDP growth breakdown in France

Import penetration in selected EU countries

Trade in services – France

Net lending/borrowing by institutional sectors – France

Private debt in France and in the euro area

Export market shares in value and in volume – France and euro area

Real compensation per employee and productivity in France

Difference in debt dynamics between France and the euro area

Public debt projections of French public debt under different scenarios

Changes in the composition of public expenditure

Healthcare expenditure as a share of GDP in selected countries (2005-2015)

Composition of total taxes on companies, 2015

Taxes on consumption as percentage of total taxation in 2014

Funding of non-financial corporations

Unemployment rate in France, 2006-2015

Export market share breakdown for France – Goods

French export performance – Goods

Exports of selected sectors (in value) – France

Share of export values per 5 categories of quality rank – France (% of total exports)

Exports market shares in value and in volume – France

Share of services in total exports in selected EU countries

Real unit labour costs in selected EA countries (deflated by GDP deflator) – whole

economy

5

5

6

6

7

13

14

21

22

24

24

26

27

30

32

39

39

40

40

41

41

42

42

43

44

4.4.8.

4.4.9.

Breakdown of real unit labour costs in France – whole economy

Sectoral breakdown of unit labour costs (average annual growth rate 2008-2015)

4.4.10. Investment composition (% of value added) – whole economy

4.5.1.

Performance of France's innovation system - distance to EU innovation leaders and to EU

average

4.5.2.

4.5.3.

4.5.4.

Efficiency of public funding of private R&D

Competition per service sector and country

Regulatory restrictions, France and EU

48

49

50

50

LIST OF BOXES

2.1.

3.1.

4.1.1.

4.3.1.

4.4.1.

4.5.1.

Contribution of the EU budget to structural change

Euro area spillovers

Effects of a tax shift from taxes on production factors to indirect taxes

Selected highlights: recent reforms to promote flexicurity in France

Investment challenges and reforms in France

Indebtedness of the State-owned network industries and implications for investment

12

17

28

38

46

53

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report assesses France’s economy in the light

of the European Commission’s Annual Growth

Survey published on 16 November 2016. In the

survey the Commission calls on EU Member

States to redouble their efforts on the three

elements of the virtuous triangle of economic

policy — boosting investment, pursuing structural

reforms and ensuring responsible fiscal policies. In

so doing, Member States should focus on

improving social fairness in order to deliver more

inclusive growth. At the same time, the

Commission published the Alert Mechanism

Report (AMR) that initiated the sixth round of the

macroeconomic imbalance procedure. The in-

depth review, which the 2017 AMR concluded

should be undertaken for the French economy, is

presented in this report.

Economic growth is forecast to accelerate

moderately.

GDP growth declined slightly to

1.2% in 2016 from 1.3% in 2015, despite the

acceleration in domestic demand, as net exports

represented a drag on growth of almost 1 pp. of

GDP growth. The Commission 2017 winter

forecast projects French GDP to grow by 1.4 % in

2017 and 1.7 % in 2018. The recovery in exports is

expected to rebalance growth away from private

consumption and help sustain the recovery,

although net exports are forecast to continue to be

a drag on growth. Inflation is expected to moderate

gradually, as the effects of past oil price increases

fade. In the long term, growth is expected to

remain moderate, as, in line with an EU wide

trend, France’s potential growth has been eroded

since the 2008 financial crisis, to 0.9 % in 2015.

Export performance remains subdued.

Export

market shares have stabilised since 2012 but

exports barely grew in 2016. The trade deficit

deteriorated in 2016 and is expected to widen

further, as imports remain more vigorous than

exports and oil prices rebound. While external

sustainability is not a concern for France in the

short term, the weak export performance weighs

on growth prospects.

Cost competitiveness is improving without

having fully regained past losses, while

substantial

improvements

in

non-cost

competitiveness are still to materialise.

The

growth of unit labour costs has slowed down

thanks to labour tax cuts and continued wage

moderation, but low productivity growth prevents

a faster recovery of France’s competitiveness. Low

levels of product market competition and slow

adoption of technology hamper productivity

growth. Incentives for employers to hire on open-

ended contracts have been introduced. In addition,

derogations through firm-level agreements from

branch-wide and general legal provisions are

becoming more systematic. However, the

minimum wage indexation mechanism has not

been revised and the labour market remains

segmented holding back the improvement of the

labour force's skills. Finally, the tax burden for

companies is high compared to other EU countries.

France's public indebtedness is high.

The deficit

is expected to decline below the threshold value of

3 % of GDP in 2017, but the pace of fiscal

adjustment is slow as the adjustment of

government spending proves difficult. This raises

concerns about the durability of the deficit

correction. The still comparatively high

deficit - coupled

with

the

low

inflation

environment and low growth - indicates that debt,

expected at 96.4 % of GDP in 2016, continues to

increase. More progress has been made on fiscal

structural reforms: the sustainability of the pension

system has been improved, territorial reform is

allowing local government to make efficiency

gains and setting-up the High Council of Public

Finances has strengthened fiscal governance.

Unemployment is falling from the peak reached

in 2015, while long-term unemployment

continues to rise in contrast with the EU trend.

After

increasing

steadily

since

2008,

unemployment started to fall, from 10.4 % in 2015

to 10.0 % in 2016, and is forecast to fall further in

the coming years. Yet, unemployment for young

people and low-qualified remains high and, as a

percentage of total unemployment, long-term

unemployment reached 44.2 % in the third quarter

of 2016, contrary to the decreasing trend in the

EU.

Overall, France has made some progress in

addressing

the

2016

country-specific

recommendations.

Substantial progress has been

made in ensuring that labour cost reductions are

sustained and in reforming the labour law. The

2016 Labour Act paves the way for a

comprehensive review of the Labour Code and

introduced measures aimed at improving firms’

capacity to adjust. However, no progress has been

1

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Executive summary

made on reforming the unemployment benefit

system. Some progress has been made in

improving the system of vocational education and

training. Also, some progress has been made on

removing barriers to activity in the services sector

and in simplifying administrative, accounting and

fiscal rules for companies. By contrast, limited

progress has been made in reducing taxes on

production and the corporate income tax,

simplifying innovation policy schemes and

boosting the savings identified by the spending

reviews. No progress has been made in alleviating

the effects on firms of size-related legal thresholds.

Although the deficit is projected to decline below

the 3 % Treaty threshold, the limited progress

made in taking the required structural budgetary

measures means that there are no fiscal buffers

against unforeseen circumstances.

Regarding progress in reaching national targets

under the Europe 2020 Strategy, France is

performing well in decreasing greenhouse gas

emissions, improving energy efficiency and

reducing early school leaving. At the same time,

more action is needed to increase the employment

rate, R&D intensity, use of renewable energy, and

to reduce poverty.

The main findings of the in-depth review

contained in this report, and the related policy

challenges, are as follows:



French exports continue to suffer from weak

competitiveness.

The increased specialisation

of goods exports on a few sectors makes

France’s export performance more vulnerable

to negative developments in these sectors.

Moreover, the quality of goods exports has

declined slightly in recent years. Export market

shares in services have been more resilient than

those in goods since 2008.



Cost competitiveness has improved in recent

years.

Since 2013, unit labour cost growth has

been lower in France than in the rest of the

euro area, in particular thanks to measures

taken to reduce the labour tax wedge, but

accumulated past losses have not been made up

for yet. Wage moderation continues, but low

productivity growth is preventing cost

competitiveness from recovering faster.



France performs well in terms of investment

levels.

Productive investment in machinery and

equipment has started to pick up supported by

fiscal measures. The quality of investment is

however uneven. Investment in R&D is mainly

in sectors whose relative weight is declining,

and businesses are relatively slow to take up

digital technologies. While barriers to

investment are overall moderate, investment is

highly concentrated around a limited number of

larger firms. These investment patterns weigh

on labour productivity and competitiveness and

affect the long-term growth potential of the

whole French economy.



The design of the tax system weighs on

competitiveness.

The high tax burden on

companies may be an obstacle to investment

and firms' growth. It is combined with a

relatively low level of consumption taxes. The

tax wedge on labour is being reduced but

remains above EU average at the average

wage. In addition, the complexity of the tax

system may also be a barrier to a well-

functioning business environment.



The French business environment is middle-

ranking

in

comparison

to

major

competitors.

While the government has tried

to simplify the regulatory burden for

businesses, the latter are still faced with a high

regulatory

burden

and

fast-changing

legislation. Size-related thresholds in social and

tax legislation also continue to weigh on firms’

growth. Competition has improved in some

service sectors, but is still weak in several

sectors of major economic importance. Given

the targeted scope of already adopted reforms,

serious barriers remain in place.



High public debt coupled with low growth

could be a source of significant risks for

public finances in future.

Short term

sustainability risks remain low. In the long

term, risks are also contained, notably due to

pension indexation rules and favourable

demographic developments compared to the

rest of the EU. Nonetheless, there are

significant consolidation needs in the coming

years to bring down the public debt. The debt

burden for the private sector is stabilising albeit

2

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Executive summary

at a high level. The combination of high public

and private debt is an additional risk factor.



The

expenditure-based

consolidation

strategy has relied mainly on declining

interest rates and cuts in public investment.

The already very high revenue-to-GDP ratio

leaves little margin for further tax hikes,

suggesting that further consolidation needs to

be expenditure-based. However, it is unlikely

that the low interest rate environment will

prevail in the medium term and if productive

investment is cut the economic potential could

be harmed. In contrast, the spending reviews

have identified a number of possible efficiency

gains, most of which have not been

implemented yet.



Its large economy and close integration with

the rest of the euro area makes France a

potentially significant source of cross-border

spillovers.

Structural reforms in France can

have positive spill-over effects in other

Member States. Model simulations suggest that

product and labour market reforms or a growth-

friendly tax shift in France can yield positive

GDP effects for both France and for the rest of

the euro area. These effects should remain in

the long-term.

Other key economic issues analysed in this report

that point to particular challenges facing France’s

economy are the following:



Measures to reduce the cost of labour have

had an effect on employment.

The recent

evaluations of the

crédit d'impôt pour la

compétitivité et l'emploi

(CICE) highlighted its

positive effect on employment, although an

increase in its credit rate was not found to have

an increased impact on employment. The

Labour Act also aims to reduce labour market

rigidities. Nonetheless, the French labour

market remains segmented, while women and

people from a migrant background continue to

be affected by lower employment rates. The

unemployment benefit system continues to be

in deficit and its rules reinforce the labour

market segmentation by favouring successive

short periods of work.



Educational inequalities remain high and

the vocational education and training system

is not sufficiently adjusted to labour market

needs.

France performs well with respect to the

Europe 2020 indicators concerning education.

However, educational inequalities linked to

socioeconomic background are among the

highest in the OECD. The system of initial

vocational education and training does not lead

to a satisfactory integration of young people in

the labour market. Access to the continuous

vocational training system is uneven for

different categories of workers.



France scores better than the EU average in

relation to poverty, social exclusion and

inequality.

Social situation indicators show no

major changes. Yet, some population groups

remain more exposed to poverty, notably part-

time workers and single-parent families. For

very low income earners, access to affordable

housing remains challenging.



The French national innovation system does

not match the performance of Europe's

innovation leaders.

A high degree of

complexity remains and overall coordination is

a challenge. The discrepancy between the

amount of public support granted and France's

middling innovation performance raises

questions about the efficiency of public support

schemes.

3

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1.

ECONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

prolongation of the over-amortisation scheme until

14 April 2017, rising profit margins and easy

financing conditions are expected to sustain robust

growth rates. Export growth is expected to

gradually normalise in 2017 and 2018, in line with

the moderate recovery projected in French export

markets. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to

moderate somewhat in 2017, in a context of

decelerating domestic demand, allowing for a

more balanced contribution of net exports to GDP

growth.

The unemployment rate has been declining

since mid-2015, supported by the labour market

measures adopted since 2013.

Employment is

forecast to continue growing at a sustained pace,

supported by the ongoing economic recovery and

by policy measures to encourage job creation by

reducing the labour tax wedge (the Tax Credit for

Competitiveness

and

Employment,

the

Responsibility and Solidarity Pact, and the Hiring

Subsidy). Moreover, the emergency plan for

employment announced in January 2016 is further

decreasing the unemployment rate by providing

training to unemployed people who subsequently

do not appear as unemployed any more.

Consequently, the unemployment rate is forecast

to decline to 9.9% in 2017 and 9.6% in 2018.

Inflation is set to moderate gradually.

Inflation

rose sharply to 1.6% in January 2017, from 0.8%

in December 2016. Overall, HICP is expected to

average 1.5% in 2017, before declining slightly to

1.3%, as the strong positive contribution from

recent oil price increases fades out and domestic

price pressures increase only gradually.

Risks to the outlook are more balanced.

Despite

continued global uncertainty, risks to the forecast

for France are less tilted to the downside than in

the autumn. The improvement of labour market

conditions could allow for a more significant drop

in the household saving rate and thus stronger

private consumption.

Potential growth

GDP growth

Economic growth is forecast to accelerate

moderately.

GDP growth declined slightly to

1.2% in 2016 from 1.3% in 2015, despite growth

reaching 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Private

consumption accelerated on the back of dynamic

household purchasing power, while investment

growth has been boosted by anticipation of the end

of the over-amortisation scheme, a fiscal incentive

for firms to invest. However, after an exceptional

performance in 2015, export growth fell to 1.0% in

2016, due to several temporary factors, while

imports remained relatively dynamic. As a result,

net exports represented a drag on growth of almost

1 pp. of GDP growth in 2016. According to the

Commission 2017 winter forecast, GDP is

projected to pick up to 1.4 % in 2017 and 1.7 % in

2018 under the usual no-policy-change assumption

(Graph 1.1).

Graph 1.1:

3

%, pps.

Contributions to GDP growth (2010-2018)

2

1

0

-1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16 (f) 17 (f) 18 (f)

Changes in inventories

Investment

Net exports

Government consumption

Private consumption

Real GDP (y-o-y%)

Source:

Commission 2017 winter forecast

The recovery in exports is expected to rebalance

growth away from private consumption and

help sustain the recovery, although net exports

are forecast to continue to be a drag on growth.

Private consumption is expected to decelerate in

line with purchasing power, as the tailwinds from

lower oil prices fade out. Also, the recovery in

investment is gaining momentum, particularly in

the construction sector. After the strong growth

observed in 2016, equipment investment growth is

set to moderate somewhat. However, the

In the long term, growth is expected to remain

moderate as potential growth has slowed since

the 2008 financial crisis.

Averaging 1.8 % from

2000 to 2008, France’s potential GDP growth

declined to 0.9 % on average from 2009 to 2015

4

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1. Economic situation and outlook

and is expected to pick up only moderately, to

1.3 % by 2018. While this decline has been

observed in all major euro area economies, France

is characterised by a stronger decline in total factor

productivity (TFP) growth, while capital

accumulation and labour force remained relatively

dynamic (

1

). France’s decline in total factor

productivity (TFP) growth, at −0.5 pp. from 2000-

2008 to 2009-2015 (Graph 1.2), is larger than that

of Germany (−0.3 pp.), Italy (−0.2 pp.) or Spain

(+0.1 pp.). As a result, potential TFP growth in

France has decoupled from Germany, although it

remained higher than in Spain and Italy.

Graph 1.2:

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

market rigidities weigh on total factor productivity

by hampering resource reallocation. Labour market

segmentation limits the improvement of labour

force’s skills (see Section 4.3). Moreover size-

related social and tax thresholds and slow adoption

of technology also weigh on total factor

productivity growth (see Section 4.5). Finally, the

tax structure is not growth-friendly.

Imports

Potential GDP growth breakdown in France

Imports have been relatively more dynamic

than final demand since 2008.

The increase in

import penetration reflects first and foremost

general trends in world trade as a result of

globalisation. However, import penetration has

increased relatively more in France than in other

major EU economies (Graph 1.3). This

deterioration in the French market shares in the

domestic market reflects the weak cost and non-

cost competitiveness of the French economy.

Graph 1.3:

Import penetration in selected EU countries

0.5%

Ratio of imports over final demand (in volume)

0.0%

120

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

2008=100

115

-0.5%

Total labour (hours) contribution

Capital accumulation contribution

TFP contribution

Potential GDP growth

110

105

100

95

Source:

Commission 2017 winter forecast

The decline in total factor productivity growth

contributes to the weak competitiveness and

exacerbates the challenges linked to the high

public debt.

Although wage increases have

moderated in recent years, the slowdown of labour

productivity growth, largely due to a decline in

TFP growth despite a continued increase in capital

intensity, prevents a faster recovery of cost

competitiveness (see Section 4.4). The decline in

potential GDP also makes it more difficult for

France to bring down its public debt without

greater

fiscal

consolidation

efforts

(see Section 4.1).

Structural reforms are key to addressing the

economic challenges associated with the

declining potential growth.

Labour and product

(

1

) European Commission (2016c).

90

85

08

FR

09

10

DE

11

12

IT

13

14

ES

15 16(f) 17(f) 18(f)

UK

EA-19

Source:

European Commission

France has been increasingly importing

intermediate goods, which currently represent

half of all imports of goods.

The import content

of its goods exports has also been growing over the

years (from 33 % in 1995 to 39 % in 2009). Yet,

French companies seem to be less integrated in

global value chains, certainly less so than German

companies. France's goods imports remain mostly

downstream in the production chain (i.e. near final

demand). Based on Andras 'upstreamness

indicators', 46.3 % of French goods imports are

5

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

near final demand against 39.7 % of German

imports. Additionally, the ratio of domestic added

value in French exports to foreign added value in

its imports fell between 1995 and 2011 (from 51 %

to 43 %), while again increasing in Germany (from

59 % to 67 %) in the same period.

Graph 1.4:

250

the overall trade balance in services. The trend in

transport services is also negative: this sector has

been running a deficit since 2013, mainly driven

by a deteriorating balance in freight road transport

and passenger air transport.

External position

Trade in services – France

bn €

50

bn €

200

40

150

30

100

20

50

10

The trade deficit reached a trough in 2011 at

−2.6 % of GDP.

The trade balance has been

steadily improving since then and reached −1.4 %

of GDP in 2015. A significant part of this

improvement is due to lower oil prices, as the trade

balance excluding energy products has been

deteriorating again since 2013. As oil prices

rebound, the total trade deficit is forecast to

increase. According to the Commission 2017

winter forecast, the trade deficit is set to reach

−2.3 % of GDP in 2018.

Graph 1.5:

Net lending/borrowing by institutional sectors –

France

0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Trade balance of services

Exports of services

Imports of services

0

8

6

4

2

% of GDP

Source:

Eurostat – Balance of payments

In addition, the fast–rising imports of services

are eroding the trade surplus in services.

While

still on the positive side, the trade balance in

services declined by EUR 16 billion (0.7 % of

GDP) from 2012 to 2015 to reach its lowest value

since 1999 (Graph 1.4) (

2

). This decline occurred

because, while exports of services grew fast

(see Section 4.4), imports were growing even

faster, accounting for the bulk of the change in the

trade balance developments in recent years.

Imports have been growing particularly fast in

technical, trade-related and other business services

since 2013, while the balance in tourism has

deteriorated since 2014, presumably as a

consequence of the recent terrorist attacks.

Tourism is the service sector where France has the

highest revealed comparative advantage (

3

). Thus,

developments in this sector have a large impact on

(

2

) According to national accounts statistics the trade balance

in services has even turned negative since 2014 and stood

at EUR −8.8 bn in 2015.

3

( ) Revealed comparative advantages are calculated based on a

formula developed by Balassa (1966) which indicates a

country's relative advantages or disadvantages in exports

by sector. It reflects the contribution to the trade balance of

each sector, on the scale of total trade in goods and services

in value, corrected by the overall trade balance.

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

08

09

10 11 12 13 14 15 16(f) 17(f) 18(f)

General government

Households and NPISH

Non-financial corporations

Financial corporations

Financial and non-financial corporations

Total economy

Source:

Eurostat, Commission 2017 winter forecast

Net borrowing of the nation is also set to

deteriorate, to −2.4 % of GDP in 2018.

In

France, all institutional sectors except households

were net borrowers in 2015 (Graph 1.5). The net

lending of households remains insufficient to fully

finance net borrowing by the general government

and by corporations. In particular, France is the

only major EU economy in which non-financial

corporations are net borrowers, while the net

borrowing of the public sector is higher than in the

euro area as a whole. Over the forecast period, the

deterioration in the net borrowing of the total

6

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

economy stems from a fall in the net lending of

households and a rise in net borrowing by

corporations.

Private indebtedness

Graph 1.6:

160

Private debt in France and in the euro area

% of GDP

Based on the measures presented in the draft

budgetary plan, the government deficit is expected

to further decrease to 2.9 % of GDP in 2017. The

structural balance is projected to improve by only

0.2 % of GDP in both 2016 and 2017, well below

the recommended efforts in March 2015 (Council

of the European Union, 2015). Moreover, at

unchanged policy the deficit is projected to

increase to 3.1 % of GDP in 2018.

The general government debt is projected to

keep rising until 2018.

The public debt-to-GDP

ratio reached 96.2 % of GDP in 2015, compared

with 92.6 % for the euro area on average. Such

difference is expected to widen further in the

coming years (see Section 4.1). Despite this trend,

sovereign yields remain very close to historical

lows driven by the expansionary monetary policy

of the ECB. These low yields have resulted in

interest expenditure decreases while preventing

negative spillovers to the financial sector and the

real economy.

Social developments

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

FR

2009

EA

FR

2015

EA

Households

Non financial corporations

MIP threshold

Source:

Eurostat

The level of consolidated private debt has

steadily increased since 1998 to reach 144.3 %

of GDP in 2015.

Both household debt and non-

financial corporation debt continued to grow at a

relatively rapid pace throughout the crisis and

beyond. By contrast, in the euro area, private debt

has been falling since 2009, as a number of

European economies have experienced significant

deleveraging. As a result, private debt in France

now exceeds the euro area average. While

household debt remains below that of the euro

area, the debt of French non-financial corporations

exceeded the euro area average by 7.5 pps. in

2015. Non-financial corporation debt, combined

with still low profitability, is a potential source of

concern for France, should this trend persist.

Public finances

Modest economic growth has led to a stagnation

of real household income in France.

Between

2012 and 2015, real GDP per capita grew more

slowly in France than in the EU and in the euro

area (0.43 %, against 1.16 % in the EU and 0.81 %

in the euro area). The poverty rate stabilised at

13.5 % in 2015 and the population at risk of

poverty or social exclusion reached 17.7 % of the

total population, below the level observed in the

EU and the euro area. Also, the intensity of

poverty, as calculated by national figures, has

recorded a slight increase to 20.1 % in 2014 after

having decreased from a peak of 21.2 % in 2012 to

19.8 % in 2013.

Income inequality remains relatively low in

France compared to the EU average (

4

).

It has

slightly decreased since 2011, partly reversing an

upward trend since 2007 (

5

). This decrease has

(

4

) As measured by the Gini index and by the income quintile

share ratio. The Gini index considers the shape of the

whole income distribution and takes values between 0 and

1 with higher values indicating a higher degree of income

inequality. The income quintile share ratio is the ratio of

total income received by the 20 % of the population with

the highest income to that received by the 20 % of the

population with the lowest income.

(

5

) The Gini index of disposable income went down from 30.8

in 2011 to 29.2 in 2015, while the income quintile share

The general government deficit is projected to

fall below the 3 % of GDP reference value in

2017, although its durable correction is at risk.

According to the Commission 2017 winter

forecast, the general government deficit is

expected to decrease from 3.5 % of GDP in 2015

to 3.3 % in 2016 due to slow expenditure growth

contained by low inflation and low interest rates.

7

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

been due to the tax benefit system, whilst market

income inequality — that is inequality of incomes

before taxes and transfers including pensions —

has been rising since 2012 and is now somewhat

above the EU average (

6

). Over the same period,

the lower 10 % of income earners have benefitted

from slightly better income developments than the

median household — contrary to what happened

between 2000 and 2012 — and their income gap

with median earners is smaller than in many other

EU countries (

7

). The French benefit system has

also helped to reduce the risk of relative poverty,

which is close to the EU average before social

transfers and rather low after transfers (

8

). By

contrast, households' net wealth (

9

) inequality is

relatively higher than income inequality and was

among the highest in the EU (ECB, 2016).

The significant rise in youth unemployment and

long-term unemployment over the past 10

years, however, may increase the risks for the

economic performance of France stemming

from higher inequality.

The segmentation of the

labour market and inequalities in access to

education (see also Section 4.3) play an important

role in inequality outcomes and perceptions. This

raises concerns about possible risks of hysteresis

effects and further pain for low income earners.

(

6

)

(

7

)

(

8

)

(

9

)

ratio fell from 4.6 in 2011 to 4.3 in 2015. The 2015 EU

average is 31.0 and 5.2 for the Gini index and the income

quintile share ratio respectively.

The difference between the Gini coefficient before and

after taxes and transfers was 50.2 in 2015 before social

transfers and pensions were taken into account, and 29.2

after social transfers and pensions – a gap of 21. This gap

exceeds the EU average of 19.9.

The real S10 income growth was significantly lower than

the real mean income growth between 2000 and 2012, but

higher since 2012. For the latest year available, the ratio

S50/S10 is below the EU average.

The relative poverty is measured by the at-risk-of-poverty

rate, defined as the share of individuals whose equivalised

disposable income falls below 60 % of the median income.

Difference between total assets and total liabilities.

8

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

Table 1.1:

Key economic, financial and social indicators – France

2004-2008 2009

1.9

-2.9

1.9

0.2

1.6

2.4

3.3

-9.1

3.5

-11.3

5.0

-9.4

2.0

-2.3

1.7

0.9

2.1

0.1

-0.4

0.3

0.8

0.6

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

0.1

-6.6

-19.2

169.9

-5.7

-4.1

1.8

9.8

8.8

112.8

43.9

68.9

-0.4

18.1

2.8

7.5

6.4

2.1

2.2

3.0

1.1

1.8

-0.3

0.9

0.3

28.5

18.3*

10.7

.

.

.

8.4

3.2

20.4

69.7

19.0

9.3

-2.9

44.4

.

66.0

-1.5

-1.1

-0.3

0.1

0.5

0.3

-0.8

-1.2

2.6

0.1

-14.8

-21.6

181.6

-7.2

0.4

2.6

10.8

3.3

130.4

52.5

77.9

1.0

17.0

4.6

-4.9

6.3

0.1

0.1

1.8

-1.8

3.5

3.4

0.5

0.4

27.7

17.5

1.6

10.1

4.6

4.3

9.1

3.0

23.6

70.3

18.5

8.4

-7.2

43.9

.

79.0

2010

2.0

1.8

1.3

2.1

9.0

8.9

-1.4

1.0

1.8

0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.5

0.3

-0.8

-1.6

-1.4

0.1

-9.3

-23.1

190.5

-10.7

-10.1

1.3

10.4

4.6

131.9

53.7

78.2

0.9

17.8

4.2

3.6

6.3

1.1

1.7

3.1

1.8

1.0

-0.1

-1.6

-4.1

27.8

18.4

5.7

10.7

8.3

4.5

9.3

3.5

23.3

70.3

19.2

9.9

-6.8

44.1

-5.8

81.7

2011

2.1

0.5

1.0

2.1

6.9

6.3

-0.4

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.3

-1.0

-2.0

-2.4

0.1

-8.7

-22.3

182.9

-7.7

-2.5

0.7

10.0

6.4

135.3

54.8

80.5

-1.0

17.5

3.9

3.9

6.4

0.9

2.3

2.5

1.3

1.0

0.0

0.2

-0.7

28.0

20.1

0.7

10.9

5.6

4.6

9.2

3.6

22.7

70.1

19.3

9.4

-5.1

45.2

-5.0

85.2

2012

0.2

-0.2

1.6

0.2

2.5

0.7

-1.1

0.9

0.3

-0.6

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.3

-1.2

-1.4

-0.3

0.0

-12.8

-26.4

182.0

-8.9

-4.5

0.7

9.5

4.4

138.5

55.2

83.3

-1.8

16.8

3.5

-1.9

6.2

1.2

2.2

2.4

-0.1

2.3

1.1

-1.9

-3.2

28.2

20.3

2.1

13.3

3.4

4.5

9.8

3.7

24.4

70.7

19.1

8.4

-4.8

46.5

-4.2

89.5

2013

0.6

0.5

1.5

-0.8

1.9

2.1

-1.4

0.9

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.5

0.3

-0.9

-1.1

1.1

0.1

-16.6

-26.2

176.3

-6.7

1.9

-0.5

8.7

2.2

137.8

55.7

82.1

-1.9

16.8

3.1

-2.6

6.1

0.8

1.0

1.6

0.3

1.1

0.3

3.1

1.6

28.4

19.1

1.8

13.1

6.0

4.6

10.3

4.0

24.9

71.1

18.1

8.1

-4.0

47.4

-3.4

92.3

2014

0.6

0.7

1.2

-0.3

3.3

4.7

-1.7

0.9

0.6

0.5

-0.5

0.2

0.4

0.3

-1.1

-1.1

1.1

0.1

-16.9

-30.8

192.5

-7.7

0.6

1.7

8.7

2.9

142.4

56.0

86.4

-2.5

17.1

3.2

-1.7

6.0

0.5

0.6

1.2

0.2

0.8

0.3

0.6

0.3

28.7

19.5

5.4

13.1

4.6

3.6

10.3

4.2

24.2

71.1

18.5

9.6

-4.0

47.8

-3.0

95.3

2015

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.0

6.1

6.6

-1.3

0.9

1.4

0.1

-0.3

0.2

0.4

0.3

-0.2

-0.7

2.6

0.1

-16.4

-32.3

192.8

-3.42

-1.0

-0.1

8.9

4.5

144.3

56.6

87.7

-1.9

17.7

3.4

-1.3

5.8

0.6

0.1

1.1

0.8

0.2

-0.4

-4.2

-4.5

28.9

22.1

3.1

13.8

6.8

3.5

10.4

4.3

24.7

71.3

17.7

8.6

-3.5

47.9

-2.7

96.2

2016

1.2

1.9

1.6

2.8

1.0

3.7

-1.3

1.1

2.0

0.0

-0.9

0.3

0.5

0.3

.

.

1.2

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

-1.9

18.1

3.5

.

.

0.8

0.3

0.9

.

0.5

-0.4

0.0

1.2

.

.

.

.

.

.

9.9

.

25.2

.

.

.

-3.3

47.6

-2.5

96.4

forecast

2017

1.4

1.2

1.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

-1.1

1.2

1.6

-0.1

-0.1

0.3

0.5

0.4

.

.

-0.9

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

-2.3

18.0

3.2

.

.

0.9

1.5

1.5

.

0.7

-0.2

-0.4

-1.1

.

.

.

.

.

.

9.9

.

.

.

.

.

-2.9

47.7

-2.3

96.7

2018

1.7

1.6

1.2

4.1

4.0

4.8

-0.6

1.3

2.1

0.0

-0.3

0.3

0.6

0.4

.

.

0.3

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

-2.4

18.1

3.1

.

.

1.2

1.3

1.9

.

1.1

-0.2

-0.7

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

9.6

.

.

.

.

.

-3.1

47.5

-2.7

97.0

Real GDP (y-o-y)

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Public consumption (y-o-y)

Gross fixed capital formation (y-o-y)

Exports of goods and services (y-o-y)

Imports of goods and services (y-o-y)

Output gap

Potential growth (y-o-y)

Contribution to GDP growth:

Domestic demand (y-o-y)

Inventories (y-o-y)

Net exports (y-o-y)

Contribution to potential GDP growth:

Total Labour (hours) (y-o-y)

Capital accumulation (y-o-y)

Total factor productivity (y-o-y)

Current account balance (% of GDP), balance of payments

Trade balance (% of GDP), balance of payments

Terms of trade of goods and services (y-o-y)

Capital account balance (% of GDP)

Net international investment position (% of GDP)

Net marketable external debt (% of GDP) (1)

Gross marketable external debt (% of GDP) (1)

Export performance vs. advanced countries (% change over 5 years)

Export market share, goods and services (y-o-y)

Net FDI flows (% of GDP)

Savings rate of households (net saving as percentage of net disposable income)

Private credit flow, consolidated (% of GDP)

Private sector debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

of which household debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

of which non-financial corporate debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

Corporations, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of GDP)

Corporations, gross operating surplus (% of GDP)

Households, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of GDP)

Deflated house price index (y-o-y)

Residential investment (% of GDP)

GDP deflator (y-o-y)

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, y-o-y)

Nominal compensation per employee (y-o-y)

Labour productivity (real, person employed, y-o-y)

Unit labour costs (ULC, whole economy, y-o-y)

Real unit labour costs (y-o-y)

Real effective exchange rate (ULC, y-o-y)

Real effective exchange rate (HICP, y-o-y)

Tax rate for a single person earning the average wage (%)

Tax rate for a single person earning 50% of the average wage (%)

Total Financial sector liabilities, non-consolidated (y-o-y)

Tier 1 ratio (%) (2)

Return on equity (%) (3)

Gross non-performing debt (% of total debt instruments and total loans and

advances) (4)

Unemployment rate

Long-term unemployment rate (% of active population)

Youth unemployment rate (% of active population in the same age group)

Activity rate (15-64 year-olds)

People at risk of poverty or social exclusion (% total population)

Persons living in households with very low work intensity (% of total

population aged below 60)

General government balance (% of GDP)

Tax-to-GDP ratio (%)

Structural budget balance (% of GDP)

General government gross debt (% of GDP)

(1) Sum of portfolio debt instruments, other investment and reserve assets

(2,3) Domestic banking groups and stand-alone banks

(4) Domestic banking groups and stand-alone banks, EU and non-EU foreign-controlled subsidiaries and EU and non-EU

foreign-controlled branches

(*) Indicates BPM5 and/or ESA95

Source:

European Commission

9

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

2.

PROGRESS WITH COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS

growth of size-related regulations, but their scope

has been limited overall.

The composition of the tax burden has

somewhat improved, but distortive features

remain and the potential for simplifying the tax

system remains largely untapped.

The total tax

burden on companies increased between 2010 and

2013, with policy measures such as the CICE, the

responsibility and solidarity pact and the phase-out

of the C3S started to reverse the trend in 2014.

These measures have been partly financed by an

increase in VAT rates and environmental taxation,

but the burden of taxation continues to fall less on

consumption than it does in other EU countries.

While some tax expenditures were phased out at

the beginning of the period, overall the tax system

has not been simplified, with tax expenditures

rising as a share of GDP.

Overall, France has made some (

11

) progress in

addressing

the

2016

country-specific

recommendations, which are all relevant to the

macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP).

Since the publication of the CSRs, few

consolidation strategy measures have been taken

on the expenditure side and tools to rein in

spending growth have not been strengthened

significantly. Progress in addressing CSR 1 has

therefore

been

limited.

The

continued

implementation of the CICE and the responsibility

and solidarity pact (RSP) and the adoption in

August 2016 of the Labour Act suggest substantial

progress with CSR 2. Progress in implementing

CSR 3 has been limited. Employment prospects

offered by the initial vocational training system are

not satisfactory, while the reform of the

unemployment benefit system is still pending.

Some progress has been made in improving the

business environment (CSR 4). Competition has

improved in some service sectors, some very

preliminary steps are being taken to rationalise the

innovation support system and the simplification

of companies administrative, fiscal and accounting

rules is ongoing. By contrast, no action has been

taken since the end of 2015 to further reform size-

related criteria in business regulations. Finally,

(

11

) Information on the level of progress and actions taken to

address the policy advice in each respective subpart of a

CSR is presented in the Overview Table in the Annex. This

overall assessment does not include an assessment of

compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

Progress

with

implementing

the

recommendations addressed to France in

2016 (

10

) has to be seen in a longer-term

perspective since the introduction of the

European Semester in 2011.

As regards public

finances, the general government deficit was

reduced from 4.8 % of GDP in 2012 to 3.3 % in

2016 and was 1.5 pp. higher than in the rest of the

euro area in 2016. In terms of fiscal structural

reforms the sustainability of the pension schemes

has been improved, the territorial reform has

provided a framework to realise efficiency gains at

local level and the fiscal governance has been

strengthened with the setting-up of the High

Council of Public Finances. However, less

progress has been made concerning the

identification of efficiency gains in public

spending, raising concerns about the durability of

the deficit correction.

Measures have been adopted to improve the

functioning of the labour market.

The cost of

labour has been reduced, notably thanks to some

fiscal measures (Sections 4.3 and 4.4). At the same

time, the 2013

accord national interprofessionnel

(ANI), the 2014 reform of the unemployment

benefit system, and the Labour Act of 8 August

2016 have aimed to tackle some of the major

rigidities hampering the good functioning of the

labour market, although the social partners' take-up

of the flexibility they offer is key in determining

their impact on the labour market segmentation.

Moreover, no ad-hoc increases of the minimum

wage have been adopted since 2012, although its

indexation mechanism has not been reviewed. The

implementation of the 2014 reform of the

vocational training system is ongoing.

The French authorities have taken some action

to improve the middle-ranking business

environment.

A number of service sectors have

been reformed and access to regulated professions

has been eased in some cases. Efforts to reduce red

tape for firms have been stepped up, notably

through the multi-year simplification programme

which has been in effect since 2013. The social

dialogue law of 2015 and the 2016 budget law

have attempted to soften the impact on firms’

(

10

) For the assessment of other reforms implemented in the

past, see in particular section 4.

10

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

progress in improving the efficiency of the tax

system as called for by CSR 5 has been limited.

The statutory corporate income tax rate is starting

to be reduced in 2017 for some SMEs, but the

turnover tax (C3S) has not been entirely phased

out and no further steps have been taken to

broaden the tax base on consumption. Apart from

government plans to introduce a withholding tax

for personal income tax, very little has been done

to streamline the tax system or to broaden the tax

Table 2.1:

Summary Table on 2016 CSR assessment

base on consumption. The scrapping of taxes

yielding little or no revenue continues to progress

at a very slow pace while tax expenditures keep

increasing in number and in value.

France

CSR 1:

Ensure a durable correction of the excessive deficit

by 2017 by taking the required structural measures and by

using all windfall gains for deficit and debt reduction.

Specify the expenditure cuts planned for the coming years

and step up efforts to increase the amount of savings

generated by the spending reviews, including on local

government spending, by the end of 2016. Reinforce

independent public policy evaluations in order to identify

efficiency gains across all sub-sectors of general

government. (MIP relevant)

CSR 2:

Ensure that the labour cost reductions are sustained

and that minimum wage developments are consistent with job

creation and competitiveness. Reform the labour law to

provide more incentives for employers to hire on open-ended

contracts. (MIP relevant)

Overall assessment of progress with 2016

CSRs: Some

Limited progress



Limited progress in reinforcing and identifying savings and

efficiency gains generated by the spending reviews and

public policy evaluations.

(1)

Substantial progress



Substantial progress in ensuring that labour cost reductions

are sustained.



Some progress in ensuring that minimum wage

developments are consistent with job creation and

competitiveness.



Substantial progress in reforming the labour law to provide

more incentives for employers to hire on open-ended

contracts.

Limited progress



Some progress in improving the links between the education

sector and the labour market.



No progress in reforming the unemployment benefit system.

CSR 3:

Improve the links between the education sector and

the labour market, in particular by reforming

apprenticeships and vocational training, with emphasis on

the low-skilled. By the end of 2016, take action to reform the

unemployment benefit system in order to bring the system

back to budgetary sustainability and to provide more

incentives to return to work. (MIP relevant)

CSR 4:

Remove barriers to activity in the services sector, in

particular in business services and regulated professions.

Take steps to simplify and improve the efficiency of

innovation policy schemes. By the end of 2016, further

reform the size-related criteria in regulations that impede

companies' growth and continue to simplify companies'

administrative, fiscal and accounting rules by pursuing the

simplification programme. (MIP relevant)

CSR 5:

Take action to reduce the taxes on production and

the corporate income statutory rate while broadening the tax

base on consumption, in particular as regards VAT. Remove

inefficient tax expenditures, remove taxes that are yielding

little or no revenue and adopt the withholding personal

income tax reform by the end of 2016. (MIP relevant)

Some progress



Some progress in easing access to and exercise of activity in

the services sectors.



Limited progress in improving the efficiency of innovation

policy schemes.



No progress in reforming the size-related criteria in

regulations that impede companies' growth.



Some progress in pursuing the simplification programme.

Limited progress



Limited progress in reducing taxes on production and the

corporate income tax while broadening the tax base on

consumption.



Some progress in modernizing the tax system, mainly

through adopting the withholding personal income tax. The

phasing out of tax expenditure and taxes yielding little or no

revenue is progressing very slowly.

(1) The overall assessment of CSR1 does not include an assessment of compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

Source:

European Commission

11

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

Box 2.1:

Contribution of the EU budget to structural change

The total allocation of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI funds) in France amounts to EUR

28 billion under the current financial framework 2014-2020. This is equivalent to around 0.2 % of annual

GDP (calculated over the period 2014-2017) and to 4.7% of the expected national public investment (

1

). By

31 December 2016, an estimated EUR 6.8 billion were allocated to concrete projects. This represents around

25 % of the total allocation of ESI funds.

Financing under the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), Horizon 2020, the Connecting Europe

Facility and other directly managed EU funds is additional to the ESI funds. By end 2016, France has signed

agreements for EUR 1.9 billion for projects under the Connecting Europe Facility. The European Investment

Bank Group approved financing under EFSI amounts to EUR 4 billion as of end-2016, which is expected to

trigger nearly EUR 21 billion in total investments.

In 2015 and 2016, ESI Funds supported progress in a number of structural reforms via ex-ante

conditionalities (

2

) and targeted investment. Examples include smart specialisation strategies in the area of

research and innovation, in ultra-peripheral regions, the existence of waste management and the water sector

actions plans.

The relevant CSRs focusing on structural issues were taken into account when designing the 2014-2020

programmes. These included improving access and quality of initial and continuous education and training;

reinforcing active labour market policy for the most vulnerable; addressing early-school leaving; reducing

poverty and social exclusion; and increasing investment in research and innovation in the specialisation

domains identified in regional innovation strategies. To date, almost 199 000 young people have been

supported under measures financed under the Youth Employment Initiative (YEI); of whom nearly 52 000

are in employment, education or training after the end of the YEI support. The YEI supported in particular

the

Garantie Jeunes,

a specific intensive counselling and training scheme that targeted people who are not in

education, employment, or training (NEETS).

(

1

) National public investment is defined as the sum of gross capital formation, investment grants, and national

expenditure on agriculture and fisheries.

(

2

) Before programmes are adopted, Member States are required to comply with a number of ex-ante conditionalities,

which aim at improving framework and conditions for the majority of public investments areas. For Members States

that did not fulfil all the ex-ante conditionalities by the end 2016, the Commission has the possibility to propose the

temporary suspension of all or part of interim payments.

12

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

3.

SUMMARY OF THE MAIN FINDINGS FROM THE MIP IN-

DEPTH REVIEW

The 2017 Alert Mechanism Report (European

Commission, 2016b) called for further in-depth

analysis to monitor progress in the unwinding of

the excessive imbalances identified in the 2016

MIP cycle. The selection was motivated by the fact

that France was identified with excessive

imbalances in spring 2016 after an in-depth

analysis, so that a new in-depth review is needed to

assess how these imbalances evolve. The identified

excessive macroeconomic imbalances related to a

weak competitiveness and a high and increasing

public debt, in a context of low productivity

growth. Other vulnerabilities were identified,

including as regards the segmentation of the labour

market, the innovation capacity, the limited

efficiency of public spending and the complex tax

system, which weighs significantly on production

factors, as highlighted in the Review of progress

on policy measures relevant for the correction of

macroeconomic

imbalances

(European

Commission, 2017c). These vulnerabilities have

cross-border relevance.

Analyses included in this Country Report

provide an In-Depth Review (IDR) into how the

identified imbalances have developed.

In

particular, IDR-relevant analysis is found in the

following sections: sources of imbalances related

to public debt are covered in section 4.1; the

situation of the financial sector in section 4.2;

sources of imbalances related to competitiveness in

section 4.4; and vulnerabilities associated with

market performance of the services sector in

section 4.5. Potential spillovers to the rest of the

euro area are discussed in box 3.1.

Imbalances and their gravity

net international investment position remains

contained at −16 % of GDP (after −17 % in 2014).

Graph 3.1:

Export market shares in value and in volume –

France and euro area

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

1999 = 100

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

FR (in value)

EA (in value)

FR (in volume)

EA (in volume)

Source:

Eurostat, IMF

Cost competitiveness deteriorated markedly

from 1999 to 2013.

Unit labour costs increased at

a faster pace in France in both nominal and real

terms. From 1999 to 2008, the loss of cost

competitiveness was largely due to containment of

unit labour costs in the rest of the euro area, in

particular in Germany. From 2008 to 2013, there

was a disconnection between the trend in nominal

unit labour costs and the GDP deflator in France,

in a context of low productivity growth. This

resulted in a further decline in the relative cost

competitiveness in that period, this time for

domestic reasons.

Weak non-cost competitiveness has also

weighed on export performance.

Despite reform

efforts, the French business environment continues

to be characterised by a relatively high regulatory

burden. Complex labour regulations, high

corporate tax rates and a complex tax system

continue to weigh on firms. Rigidities persist in a

number of sectors and prevent the downward

adjustment of tariffs to the detriment of

downstream industries that use these services.

Increased size-related social and fiscal obligations

give rise to threshold effects and discourage firms

from growing with implications for labour

French export performance has deteriorated

significantly over the past 15 years.

Since 1999,

its export market shares have fallen by 36.8 % in

value (Graph 3.1), compared to 20.4 % for the euro

area as a whole. In volume, the decline is also

significant (−25.4 %, against −11.0 % in the euro

area). This loss in export market share, linked to a

deterioration of both cost and non-cost

competitiveness, has weighed on growth

outcomes. At the same time, external sustainability

is not a concern for France in the near term as its

13

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

productivity and competitiveness. The low

profitability of non-financial corporations also

weighs on France’s non-cost competitiveness,

through its impact on the quality of investment.

Although corporate investment is relatively high

and supported by favourable macroeconomic and

framework conditions, it tends to be concentrated

in less productive purposes thereby weighing on

productivity growth.

The high public debt-to-GDP ratio is a major

source of vulnerability and compounds the risks

stemming from the weak competitiveness of the

French economy.

High public debt weighs on

growth prospects by crowding out productive

public expenditure and requiring a higher tax

burden. However, in the current context of also

high (though stable) private sector debt, still weak

growth, low inflation and heightened uncertainty,

not only is public deleveraging more difficult, but

also high public debt makes France more

vulnerable as it might give rise to negative

feedback loops to the real economy and the

financial sector should a new wave of negative

shocks materialise. Moreover, sustainability risks

in the medium term are high, partly due to the

projected increase in age-related expenditure.

Given the size of the French economy, such a

situation could also entail potentially negative

spillovers to the rest of the euro area (see also

Box 3.1 on euro area spillovers).

Evolution, prospects and policy responses

by 2.5 % over 3 years and 0.9 % once the Tax

credit for competitiveness and employment (CICE)

is taken into account, compared to 2.1 % in the rest

of the euro area. Productivity picked up slightly in

2015 (rising by 0.8 %), but remained below both

long-term trends and the euro area average. Part of

the decline in productivity growth can be

explained by the measures aimed at boosting

employment growth, which often focused on low-

qualified employment. However, potential growth

has also declined since 2008.

Graph 3.2:

118

115

112

109

Real compensation per employee and

productivity in France

1999=100

106

103

100

97

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Real comp. per employee (GDP deflator)

Real comp. per employee (GDP deflator), incl. CICE

Productivity

Source:

Eurostat

Export performance remains subdued.

Export

market shares have stabilised since 2012 but

export growth stalled in 2016 and is expected to

fall well short of both world trade and French

export market growth. The current account deficit

rose to −1.2 % of GDP in 2016 according to

annualised monthly data (after −0.2 % in 2015)

and is expected to deteriorate further. Taking into

account the relative position of the French

economy in the business cycle, the cyclically-

adjusted current account deficit is worse than the

headline indicator.

Cost competitiveness is improving without

having fully regained past losses.

The labour tax

cuts and continued wage moderation have allowed

a slowdown of labour costs, but low productivity

growth is preventing cost competitiveness from

recovering faster. In 2015, unit labour costs rose

Despite

recent

reforms,

substantial

improvements in non-cost competitiveness are

still to materialise.

Although France has improved

its overall regulatory performance, its business

environment continues to be middle-ranking. In

the Doing Business survey (World Bank, 2017),

France fell from 28th to the 29th position (out of

190 economies assessed), and ongoing reforms do

not appear to be significantly improving business

perceptions. Regulatory bottlenecks continue to

affect firms’ economic performance. As regards

investment, equipment investment is slowly

gaining ground supported by fiscal incentives for

amortisation, but R&D investment continues to be

concentrated in sectors of declining economic

importance as measured by their share in total

value added (motor vehicles, computers,

electronics, and pharmaceuticals), which has

implications for the long-term growth potential of

the whole economy. Non-financial corporate profit

14

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

margins have somewhat recovered since 2013, in

part due to the labour tax wedge cuts and to lower

oil prices, but they remain below their pre-crisis

level.

Some action has been taken to improve

competitiveness.

France has taken some measures

to address the rigidity of the wage setting process

through the labour law adopted in 2016, which

provides for company-level majority agreements

on working time. The impact of this law on the

competitiveness of the French economy, however,

will depend on its implementation and the extent to

which the social dialogue at firm level will be able

to transform the new legal possibilities granted by

law into tangible action. Also, while no ad-hoc

increase in the minimum wage has been adopted

since 2012, no revision of its indexation

mechanism has been undertaken and the French

labour market remains both segmented and

insufficiently linked with the vocational training

system. As regards the business environment,

competition has been improved in a number of

services sectors, including legal professions, retail

trade and passenger transport services. Some effort

is also being made to simplify firms'

administrative, fiscal and accounting rules through

the multiannual simplification programme.

However, the tax system remains a drag on

competitiveness despite recent reforms. Corporate

taxes are still high and France has abandoned the

phase-out of the last tranche of the turnover tax

(C3S), while the tax base on consumption remains

narrow.

Public debt is projected to keep rising due to

still high deficits.

The general government debt-

to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to 97 % of

GDP in 2018, which implies growing divergence

in indebtedness vis-à-vis the euro area due to a

slower pace of deficit reduction than in the rest of

the EU (see Sections 1 and 4). The budgetary

strategy, which is to meet just the nominal

headline deficit targets, basically relies on

favourable macroeconomic conditions and interest

rate windfalls. Such a strategy is risky as, on the

one hand, it does not ensure durable correction of

the excessive deficit and, on the other hand, there

are significant consolidation needs in the coming

years to bring down the public debt.

Spending dynamics prove hard to contain.

Despite France's efforts to contain spending

increases in recent years, the consolidation

measures in the 2017 budget law have been scaled

down compared to the plans included in the April

2016 stability programme. Overall, the current

primary expenditure ratio, this is expenditure

minus the interest burden and public investment,

has continued increasing since 2012. While

spending reviews identified a considerable amount

of potential saving measures, the budgetary

measures adopted as a result of the spending

reviews have had a limited yield and have not

contributed so far to significantly improve public

spending efficiency. Furthermore, as demonstrated

in last year's country report, in key areas of public

policy, e.g. pensions and healthcare, France

achieves good results but other Member States

reach same or better outcomes at a lower cost. In

turn, the tax burden is high, with the tax system

remaining too complex and heavily reliant on

production factors, which reins in growth.

High sustainability risks show up in the

medium term mainly due to the high initial

deficit and debt ratio.

Despite the high debt ratio,

short term sustainability risks are considered as

low (see section 4.1). France is able to issue long-

term debt at very low rates also bearing in mind

the expansionary monetary policy stance of the

ECB. However, the high initial deficit and debt

and the projected increase in age-related

expenditure over the next 15 years lead to a

significant sustainability gap in the medium term.

Overall assessment

France faces important sources of imbalances

related to a weak competitiveness and high and

increasing public debt, in a context of low

productivity

growth.

The

substantial

improvement in export performance in 2015 has

proved short-lived. The current account, close to

balance in 2015, is expected to deteriorate

significantly in the coming years. Cost

competitiveness is improving but has not regained

past losses. Wage moderation continues, but the

decline in productivity growth prevents a faster

recovery of France’s cost competitiveness. The

product market reforms of the last years and

continued efforts to reduce red tape on firms could

contribute to an improvement of non-cost

competitiveness but there is still substantial scope

to increase market competition, simplify

regulation, and reduce the tax burden for

15

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

companies. Public debt remains high and

increasing, which represents a major imbalance, as

it weighs on growth prospects and reduces the

fiscal space to offset adverse macroeconomic

shocks. Public debt reduction is thus important to

help improve overall French macroeconomic

performance and avert medium-term sustainability

risks.

Policy measures have been taken in recent years

in particular to reduce the labour tax wedge.

However, policy challenges remain, in particular

as regards the regulatory impediments to firms’

growth, the initial and continuous system of

vocational training and the reform of the

unemployment benefit system. In addition, the

spending review has not delivered the expected

results to address the growing public debt-to-GDP

ratio.

16

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Box 3.1:

Euro area spillovers

The large size of the French economy and its strong trade and financial integration with the rest of the

euro area, in particular with neighbouring countries, makes France a potentially important source of

spillovers for several other Member States.

France represents an important export destination and import

partner for many EU countries. Exports to France account for almost 13 % of the GDPs of Belgium and

Luxembourg, while in the case of Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Portugal and the Czech

Republic the same indicator ranges between 4 % to 7 %. Trade integration with large euro area economies

such as Germany, Spain and Italy is likewise significant (Graph 1, lhs). Financial linkages between France

and the euro area are likewise strong (Graph 1, rhs). In 2014, Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands had

gross financial exposures to France via equity and debt instruments totalling 50 % or more of their

respective GDP. The large economies of the UK, Italy and Germany also had large financial exposures to

France in the range of 10 % to 30% of their GDP. Overall, the euro area shows total financial exposures to

France worth more than 25% of GDP, mostly through the form of debt.

Graph 1:

Trade and financial linkages between France and other EU countries

16

14

% of trading partner GDP

French imports per country of origin

(top 15 EU countries)

120

% of trading partner GDP

Exposures of EU countries to French

liabilities (top 15 EU countries, excluding

LU)

100

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

80

60

40

20

0

Goods

Services

Equity

Debt

(1) Data for goods correspond to 2014. Data for services correspond to 2012. Data for financial exposures are

European Commission 2014 bilateral data covering all economic sector, based on correspond to 2014 based on

Hobza and Zeugner (2014).

Source:

United Nations (lhs), Hobza and Zeugner (2014) (rhs).

Structural reforms in France can have positive cross-border economic effects.

Model

simulations suggest that product and labour market reforms in France can have important domestic

and cross-border macroeconomic effects by boosting productivity and employment. By bridging

half of the gap with the three best EU performers in these reform areas, France can raise GDP by

3.7% after 5 years, and by 6.7% after 10 years based on the Commission’s QUEST model. At the

same time, spillovers to the rest of the euro area would be positive, even in the short run. GDP in

the rest of the euro area would increase by 0.1% relative to the baseline after 5 years and by 0.2%

after 10 years. The simulated structural reforms focused on decreasing mark-ups and entry barriers

in services and manufacturing, increasing the labour market participation rate for the elderly, the

low-skilled and female workers, raising the share of medium- and high-skilled labour force, tax

and unemployment benefit reforms, active labour market policies and innovation subsidies.

(Varga and in 't Veld, 2014). This positive effect would remain in the long run (Graph 1, lhs).

(Continued on the next page)

17

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Box (continued)

Graph 2:

Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms in France

15

GDP effects and spill-overs from structural reforms

in France

1

0.05

GDP effects and spill-overs from an increase in VAT

offset by a growth-friendly policy mix

0.009

0.007

0.006

0.005

0.004

0.003

0.002

0.001

% deviation, rest of EA and EU

0.8

10

0.6

0.4

5

0.2

0

5

10

15

20

0

0.04

0.035

0.03

0.025

0.02

0.015

0.01

0.005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

France (left axis)

rest of EA (right axis)

0

France (left axis)

rest of EA (right axis)

(1) Left-hand side simulations are based on Varga and in't Veld (2014), percentage deviations from baseline

Source:

European Commission

A growth-friendly tax shift as discussed in Section 4, can also yield positive effects for both

France and the rest of the euro area.

Graph 2 (rhs) shows the effects on GDP of a tax shift

whereby an increase in VAT worth 0.4% of GDP is fully offset by an equivalent reduction in

social security contributions and corporate income taxes, as well as an increase in transfers to

liquidity-constrained households. The weights on the three offsetting components are 71%, 25%

and 4% respectively, in line with the simulations shown in Box 4.1.1. While in absolute terms the

effects are overall small owing to the small size of the shock, euro area spill-overs are positive and

felt immediately on the first year of the reform. In relative terms, spill-over effects to the rest of

the euro area can represent close to one fifth of the domestic effect when measured in terms of the

GDP of the respective geographical areas. More generally, addressing existing economic and fiscal

challenges in France would not only benefit the domestic economy but also feed into the euro area

confidence cycle and provide a stimulus to the fragile and slowing-recovering euro area economy.

Conversely, France's economic prospects largely depend on developments in its main trade and

financial partners in the euro area, which underlines the need for coordinated policy action and

rebalancing efforts at euro area level.

18

% deviation, rest of EA and EU

0.045

0.008

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Table 3.1:

MIP Assessment Matrix (*) – France 2017

Gravity of the challenge

Evolution and prospects

Policy response

Imbalances (unsustainable trends, vulnerabilities and associated risks)

Competitiveness

Since 1999, France lost export market

shares by 36.8 %.

External sustainability is not a concern for

France in the near term as its NIIP remains

contained at −16 % of GDP (after −17 %

in 2014).

Cost competitiveness is improving but has

not

yet

regained

past

losses

(see Section 4.4). Over the past ten years,

ULC increased at a slightly higher pace in

France relative to other EA countries.

The structural decline in productivity

growth

reinforces

the

challenges

associated with a weak competitiveness.

The low profitability of non-financial

corporations also weighs on non-cost

competitiveness, through its impact on the

quality of investment.

Similarly to other EU economies,

export market shares have stabilised

in recent years (+1.5 % from 2012 to

2015 in cumulated terms). Export

performance improved substantially in

2015, but this improvement has

proved

short-lived

in

2016

(see Section 4.4).

The current account, close to balance

in 2015 (−0.2 % of GDP), is expected

to deteriorate significantly over the

coming years.

Annual ULC growth has kept

decelerating since 2012 thanks to

labour tax cuts and continued wage

moderation (see Section 4.4). In 2015,

the depreciation of the euro, combined

with

subdued

HICP

inflation

developments, led to a renewed

decrease of the REER headline

indicator.

While labour productivity picked up

in 2015 (+0.8 %), it remained below

both long-term trends and the euro

area average, preventing a faster

recovery

of

France's

cost

competitiveness (see Section 4.4).

Despite a recent increase, the

corporate profit share of the French

non-financial companies remains

below its pre-crisis level.

The French authorities implemented the

CICE and the Responsibility and

Solidarity Pact (RSP). Both measures

should lower labour taxes by EUR 30 bn

by 2017 and corporate taxes by

EUR 10 bn. Studies using firm-level data

for the period 2013-2014 found a positive

effect of the CICE on profit margins and

employment, while an impact on

investment, R&D and exports is expected

to materialise over the medium-term

(see Section 2 and Section 4.3). The

CICE transformation in permanent

reductions in employers' social security

contributions is announced for 2018,

while its rate applicable on the 2017

payroll with budgetary implications in

2018 has been extended from 6 % to7 %.

France has taken some measures to

address the rigidity of the wage setting

process, notably through the El Khomri

law adopted in 2016. The impact of this

law on the competitiveness of the French

economy, however, will depend on its

implementation and if the social dialogue

within firms will be able to transform into

concrete actions the new legal

possibilities granted by the El Khomri

law (see Section 2 and Section 4.3).

While no ad-hoc increase in the minimum

wage has been adopted since 2012, no

revision of its indexation mechanism has

been undertaken (see Section 2).

(Continued on the next page)

19

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3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Table (continued)

Public debt

Already at a very high level, government

debt continued to increase to 96.2 % of

GDP in 2015. Such a high debt level and

its upward trend constitute a vulnerability

for the economy and reduce the fiscal

space available to respond to future

shocks.

The high public debt also weighs on

growth prospects by crowding out

productive public expenditure and

requiring a higher tax burden.

Potential growth is estimated at 0.9 % in

2015 while inflation is also low. Low

nominal growth makes it also more

difficult for France to bring down its

public debt.

Although the financial sector does not face

immediate risks, pressures from the

combination of a high public and private

debt may increase in the future under

adverse economic conditions.

The government has used low government

bond yields to lengthen the maturity of

sovereign bonds by around 5 months,

which is a mild mitigating factor for

refinancing problems. The

widely

diversified French debt investor base in

terms of type of investors as well as

geographically could also be a mitigating

factor.

Public debt is projected to increase to

97.0 % by 2018. The structure of

public debt financing, both in terms of

maturity and diversification, does not

give rise to short-term risks.

France is able to issue long-term debt

at very low rates. However, in a

somewhat longer perspective, debt

dynamics between France and the rest

of the euro area are diverging, mainly

due to the higher French primary

deficit.

The debt trajectory and the

sustainability gap at horizon 2031

point to high indebtedness risks in the

medium term.

The Commission 2017 winter forecast

projects the headline deficit target to

be met in 2016. For 2017, the

Commission projects a headline

deficit of 2.9 % of GDP. While

slightly below the 3 % reference value

in the Treaty, this is 0.2 pp. higher

than planned by the French authorities

and 0.1 pp. higher than the deficit

target recommended by the Council.

The budgetary strategy envisaged by

France is risky. It relies mainly on

cyclical factors and lower interests

payments on government debt. Therefore,

the projected structural efforts for 2016

and 2017 fall clearly short of the

recommended effort set by the Council.

Moreover, not all measures are

sufficiently specified resulting in a higher

Commission deficit forecast for 2017.

Expenditure-based consolidation has seen

a setback in the course of 2016 and

expenditure trends could rise again in the

future showing the limit of the across-the-

board spending cuts and expenditure

containments based on norms.

Conclusions from IDR analysis



France is characterised by a weak competitiveness and a high and increasing public debt, in a context of low productivity growth. Associated

vulnerabilities have cross-border relevance.



The substantial improvement in export performance in 2015 has proved short-lived and the current account, close to balance in 2015, is expected

to deteriorate significantly over the coming years. Cost competitiveness is improving but has not yet regained past losses. Wage moderation

continues, but the decline in productivity growth prevents a faster recovery of France's cost competitiveness. Non-financial corporate profit

margins have somewhat recovered since 2013, but remain below their pre-crisis level, weighing on non-cost competitiveness. Besides, public

debt is projected to reach 97.0 % of GDP in 2018. The spending reviews have not contributed so far to significantly improve public spending

efficiency, necessary to alleviate the tax burden and improve the efficiency of the rest of the economy.



Policy measures have been taken in recent years, in particular to reduce the labour tax wedge. However, policy challenges remain, in particular

as regards the regulatory impediments to firms’ growth, the initial and continuous system of vocational training and the reform of the

unemployment benefit system. In addition, the spending review has not delivered the expected results to address the growing public debt-to-

GDP ratio.

(*) The first column summarises "gravity" issues which aim at providing an order of magnitude of the level of imbalances. The

second column reports findings concerning the "evolution and prospects" of imbalances. The third column reports recent and

planned relevant measures. Findings are reported for each source of imbalance and adjustment issue. The final three

paragraphs of the matrix summarise the overall challenges, in terms of their gravity, developments and prospects, policy

response.

Source:

European Commission

20

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4.

REFORM PRIORITIES

4.1. PUBLIC FINANCES AND TAXATION

General government debt sustainability (

12

)*

Graph 4.1.1:

Difference in debt dynamics between France

and the euro area

15

Debt dynamics between France and the rest of

the euro area continue to diverge although the

increase in French debt is slowing.

The

Commission 2017 winter forecast puts the general

government debt in France at about 8 pp above the

euro area level. The higher general government

deficit in France explains most of this difference,

although real economic growth, interest

expenditure and stock-flow adjustments have

partly compensated for the higher primary deficits

in recent years (Graph 4.1.1). The lower interest

expenditure has contributed significantly to

reducing the deficit and debt since 2011 and this is

expected to continue over 2016 and 2017.

However, the declining interest rate burden is

expected to come to a halt once interest rates and

inflation normalize. Therefore, without further

consolidation and sustained growth, the reduction

in the public debt-to-GDP ratio is not guaranteed

and debt dynamics between France and the euro

area will continue to diverge.

The high public debt ratio does not seem to pose

significant sustainability challenges in the short

term.

The short-term sustainability indicator

S0 (

13

) does not flag any significant risk overall,

although the short-term fiscal sub-index flags high

risk due to the high level of gross financing needs,

of the primary deficit and of public debt. In spite

of the weaknesses revealed by the fiscal sub-index

of the S0 indicator, the rating outlook for French

government debt is AA stable for the three major

rating agencies.

(

12

) This section is based on the 2015 Ageing Report (European

Commission, 2015a) and the Debt Sustainability Monitor

2016 (European Commission, 2017a).

* An asterisk indicates that the analysis in the section

contributes to the in-depth review under the MIP (see

section 3 for an overall summary of main findings).

(

13

) S0 is a composite indicator aimed at evaluating the extent

to which there might be a fiscal stress risk in the upcoming

year, stemming from the fiscal, as well as the macro-

financial and competitiveness sides of the economy. A set

of 25 fiscal and financial-competitiveness variables proven

to perform well in detecting fiscal stress in the past is used

to construct the indicator. Countries are deemed to face

potential high short-term risks of fiscal stress, whenever S0

is above an estimated critical threshold.

10

5

0

-5

-10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Primary balance

Growth effect (real)

Stock flow adjustments

Interest expenditure

Inflation effect

Gross debt ratio

Source:

European Commission, 2017 winter forecast

Sound debt management strategies reduce the

short term risks.

All French debt is denominated

in euro so there is no currency risk. Moreover, the

average maturity of debt instruments has increased

to nearly 7.5 years, reflecting longer issuance

maturities, which allows securing low interest rates

over the coming years. While the share of short-

term debt has declined, it remains relatively high

(8.3 % of total). The investor base is diverse and

broadly equally distributed between residents, the

euro area and the rest of the world. While holdings

by foreign investors have slightly declined to 60 %

of total French debt, the high share held by non-

residents could be a source of vulnerability.

However, investor appetite is still high. Traditional

investors in search of higher yields have turned to

riskier investments, but are expected to readjust

their holdings once interest rates increase. French

debt is a sought-after investment for capital and

liquidity requirements reasons and diversification

purposes, as it offers the possibility of holding

nominal and inflation linked bonds issued in euros.

However, France's public debt faces high

sustainability risks in the medium term.

The

debt sustainability analysis for France shows that

in the baseline scenario assuming no policy change

public debt would be roughly stable at some 97 %

of GDP until 2021. However, it would begin to

21

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

rise again thereafter, to reach 103.5 % of GDP in

2027, the last projection year. This public debt

shows that the fiscal effort is insufficient to offset

the increasing costs of an ageing population and

the unfavourable snow-ball effect, mainly due to

the rising interest rate burden. Based on these

projections, the S1 sustainability indicator, which

measures sustainability risks at horizon 2031, flags

a high medium-term risk. This indicator implies

that a cumulative gradual improvement in the

French structural primary balance of 4.7 pps. of

GDP, relative to the baseline scenario, would be

required over 5 years to reduce the debt ratio to

60 % of GDP by 2031.

The high medium-term sustainability risks are

primarily due to high initial indebtedness and

unfavourable initial budgetary position.

Specifically, 2.8 pps. of the required fiscal

adjustment would be due to debt ratio's distance

from the 60 % reference value, 1.5 pps. to the

unfavourable initial budgetary position (defined as

the gap to the debt-stabilising primary balance)

and the remaining 0.3 pps. to the projected

increase in age-related public spending. Public

debt projections are especially sensitive to interest

rate developments: a 1 pp. increase in the interest

rate of newly issued bonds and rolled-over debt,

other things being equal, would lead to a 6-point

increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio (around

EUR 190 bn.) compared to the baseline projection

by 2027 (Graph 4.1.2), thereby aggravating the

sustainability gap significantly.

Despite medium-term challenges, sustainability

risks appear contained in the long run.

The S2

indicator, which measures sustainability risks at an

infinite horizon, calculated under a baseline no-

fiscal policy change scenario, indeed points to a

relatively small required fiscal adjustment (0.8 pp.

of GDP), to ensure that the debt ratio remains on a

sustainable path over the long run horizon. This is

primarily due to the projected fall in age-related

spending from the late 2030s (contribution of -

1.0 pp. of GDP to S2), offset by the unfavourable

initial budgetary position (1.8 pp. of GDP). It is the

projected decrease of public pension expenditure,

in particular, that drives down ageing costs (- 1.7

pp. of GDP), given the reforms implemented in

this area in the past. However, the adjustment

implied by the S2 indicator could lead to debt

stabilising at relatively high levels. Consequently,

the indicator has to be treated with caution for

high-debt countries in relation to the SGP

requirements. Moreover, long-term risks could

arise under more adverse scenarios, such as in the

lower total factor productivity growth scenario for

pension expenditures, or the Ageing Working

Group risk scenario for healthcare and long-term

care expenditures.

Graph 4.1.2:

Public debt projections of French public debt

under different scenarios

110.0

105.0

100.0

95.0

90.0

85.0

Baseline no-policy change scenario

Standardized (permanent) negative shock (-1p.p.) to the

short- and long-term interest rates on newly issued and

rolled over debt

Standardized (permanent) positive shock (+1p.p.) to the

short- and long-term interest rates on newly issued and

rolled over debt

Source:

European Commission, Debt Sustainability Monitor

2016.

Favourable demographic dynamics and past

reforms mean that pension expenditure is

projected to decline in the long run.

Pension

spending in France is among the highest in the EU,

at 14.9 % of GDP versus 11.3 % in the EU in

2013, and so is the benefit ratio, 51.3 % in France

versus 46.9 % in the EU, defined as the average

pension as a share of the economy-wide average

wage. Pension expenditures are projected to

remain broadly constant at a high level in the

medium-term and to decline only in the long term.

A relatively moderate increase in the old-age

dependency ratio (by 14.9 pps.) represents a

relatively favourable demographic trend compared

to other EU countries that allows containing

pressure on pension expenditure. The average

effective exit age from the labour market (61 in

2014), which is low in a EU perspective, is also

projected to increase progressively to 63 in 2060 as

a result of recent reforms described in the 2016

Country Report (European Commission, 2016c).

However, the savings envisaged from the foreseen

increase in the retirement age might be partly

offset by rises in other types of public expenditure,

22

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

such as invalidity or unemployment-related

expenditure in the short term. Despite the

favourable long-term financial prospects of the

French public pension system, some special

regimes that allow early retirement continue to

weigh negatively on the balance of the pension

system.

Quality of fiscal consolidation*

Given the already high revenue ratio, the

government adopted an expenditure based

consolidation strategy.

Between 2012 and 2017,

the deficit is projected to decline from 4.8 % to

2.9 % of GDP according to the Commission 2017

winter forecast (ibid.). Over the same period, the

revenue ratio is projected to increase by 1.3 % of

GDP to 53.3 % of GDP. This ratio is forecast to be

8.5 % of GDP higher than the EU average in 2017,

with the high tax burden weighing on economic

activity (see the taxation sub-section, below). The

expenditure-to-GDP ratio is set to decline by 0.6

pp over 2012-2017, helped by lower interest rates

(Graph 4.1.3). A quarter of the planned deficit

reduction would thus be due to changes in

expenditure, in particular from the reorientation

towards an expenditure-based consolidation

strategy since the budget 2015. However, at

56.2 % of GDP in 2017, the expenditure ratio

would remain 9.7 % of GDP higher than in the EU.

The largest contributor to the decline in the

expenditure ratio is the interest burden (-0.8 pp

over 2012-2017), with broadly neutral effects on

economic activity.

Interest rates are projected to

increase somewhat in the short term but remain

low by historical standards. However, the low

interest rate environment is not expected to prevail

in the medium term. For example, in the ageing

projections, the interest burden is projected to

gradually rise from 1.8 % of GDP in 2017 to 3 %

of GDP by 2025.

Expenditure growth was also contained by a

reduction in public investment.

The second

largest contributor to the fall in public expenditure

is public investment which declined by 0.6 % of

GDP over the same period. Public investment cuts

typically have a stronger negative effect on

economic activity than cuts in other expenditure

items, with a multiplier for public investment of

2.5 points in the long run. However, the economic

impact of the decline in public investment has

likely been less strong than suggested by the

normal multipliers (

14

). Public investment was

mainly cut by local authorities, who are

responsible for more than 50 % of total public

investment, and has mainly affected the least

efficient projects, thereby leaving the existing

public capital stock unaffected. Local investment

displays a clear cyclical pattern linked to the local

electoral cycle, but this time round the cycle seems

to have been amplified by the cut in the global

State transfers to local authorities of 0.5 % of GDP

since 2014. Nonetheless, while in a first phase the

cut in global dotations has impacted investment.

Since recently, operational expenditure of local

authorities started declining from a growth rate of

3.0 % in 2013 to 0.9 % in 2015.

Primary current expenditure increased due to a

strong increase in subsidies.

The primary current

expenditure ratio is projected to increase from

49.0% of GDP in 2012 to 50.1% of GDP in 2017.

This increase in the expenditure ratio once the

interest burden and capital expenditure is filtered

out, puts into question to durability of the

expenditure containment strategy. One important

driver of spending has been an increase in

subsidies, due to the introduction of the

crédit

d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi

(CICE),

which is a tax credit on the salary mass of firms

introduced in 2014, focused on the lower end of

the wage scale. The effect of the increase in

subsidies on economic activity is closer to a

targeted cut in social contributions, which is a

relatively efficient way of strengthening economic

activity as opposed to other types of subsidies.

The spending reviews were scaled back in 2016.

In place since 2015, the spending reviews

identified a fraction - less than 2 % - of the overall

planned expenditure savings of EUR 50 billion

over the period 2015-2017. Based on the first wave

of reviews, savings with a total yield of EUR 325

million were included in the 2016 budget. The

second review exercise took place in 2016, but the

proposals in the draft budget 2017 relied on

measures identified already in the 2015 spending

review exercise. The planned savings would yield

EUR 400 million. In general, it appears that only a

(

14

) IMF (2014) World Economic Outlook, October 2014. For a

more in-depth discussion, see Cour des Comptes (2015)

La

situation et les perspectives des finances publiques,

Juin

2015.

23

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

subset of the savings identified in the spending

reviews appear in the budget. This is partly

because more than 50 % of the spending reviewed

in 2016 concerned local authorities, and they are

autonomous in managing their budgets. In general

no mechanism exists to ensure that the different

administrations act on the recommendations of the

spending reviews.

Graph 4.1.3:

Changes in the composition of public

expenditure

2%

contained in comparison to other EU Member

States although health care expenditure would

remain one of the highest in the EU. In the light of

cost pressures, an ageing population and the

increased prevalence of chronic diseases, a more

coordinated use of care is being encouraged. In

other countries, but to some extent also in France,

this is done through greater use of primary care

and more effective referrals from family doctors to

steer demand to other types of care and organise

appropriate and cost-effective channels of

treatment.

Graph 4.1.4:

Healthcare expenditure as a share of GDP in

selected countries (2005-2015)

1%

% of GDP

0%

0.1%

-0.6%

12.0

-0.8%

-1%

11.0

-2%

2012-2015

2015-2017

2012-2017

Subsidies

Interest

Other

Public Investment

Intermediate consumption

Social transfers in kind (health care,…)

Compensation of employees

Social transfers (pensions, unemployment, ...)

Total

10.0

% GDP

9.0

8.0

7.0

Source:

Ameco database, European Commission

6.0

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

Efficiency and effectiveness of the health

system (

15

)*

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Source:

OECD Health statistics 2016

The French health system performs well in a

European perspective.

The population enjoys

high life expectancy at birth (82.3 years in 2015,

one of the highest in the EU). The healthcare

system performs well in terms of overall

accessibility as it is characterised by fee-for-

service payment of doctors, unrestricted freedom

of choice for patients and a traditional focus on

hospital based care.

However, healthcare spending is relatively high

in a European perspective.

French health

expenditure was at 11 % of GDP in 2015 which is

similar to the level of expenditure in Germany

(Graph 4.1.4). In the long run, the increase in

health care expenditure is expected to be relatively

( ) This section is largely based on Commission services and

Economic Policy Committee, Joint Report on Health Care

and Long-Term Care Systems & Fiscal Sustainability

(2016).

15

A range of reforms has been implemented in

recent years to keep health care expenditure

under

control.

Key

reforms

included

improvements in access to health insurance for

those most vulnerable, improvements in hospital

efficiency, better data collection and monitoring

and better control of pharmaceutical expenditure,

greater use of primary care and improvements in

care coordination from primary to secondary care.

In tandem with the reforms, the enforcement of the

healthcare expenditure norm, the ONDAM

(Objectif

National de Dépenses d'Assurance

Maladie),

has allowed for a contained growth of

health expenditure in recent years.

Low spending on prevention could weigh on the

overall efficiency and effectiveness of the

French health system.

France spends 1.9% of

total health resources on prevention, versus

24

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

average spending on prevention of 3% in the EU.

Low spending on prevention can lead to higher

healthcare costs in the longer run, certainly as it is

accompanied by low vaccination levels for certain

preventable diseases and comparatively high

prevalence of risky behaviour such as alcohol and

tobacco consumption.

Fiscal frameworks*

Finally, the ONDAM and the norm of the state

cover about half of public expenditure.

Taxation*

The fiscal framework has been strengthened in

the last few years, although weaknesses still

remain.

Since the founding in 2012, the High

Council of Public Finances (HCFP) (

16

), the

systematic positive bias in the macroeconomic

forecasts underpinning the draft budgets has

disappeared. In September 2016, the HCFP issued

a more critical opinion than in previous years on

the macroeconomic scenario underpinning the

2017 draft budgetary plan (Haut Conseil des

Finances Publiques, 2016). There is no formal

mechanism in place to reconcile divergent views

between the HCPF and the Ministry of Finance,

and in the that case, the Ministry of Finance did

not adjust the macroeconomic scenario

underpinning the 2017 DBP following the HCFP's

opinion .

Although the expenditure norms are an

effective means to control expenditure, they are

becoming more difficult to meet.

The norms are

becoming more ambitious every year as

expenditure growth rates for the respective

spending categories decrease. At the same time,

new spending announcements are projected to

increase spending on a permanent basis, whereas

the savings allowing the norms to be met are

across-the-board spending cuts. Consequently, in

2017 the ceilings for the norms had to be raised for

State and health expenditure. All these

developments point to the limits of the existing

rules, as they become harder to obey without

taking structural measures. Furthermore, the cut in

transfers from the State to local authorities has

been reduced, leading to an upward revision of the

indicative spending norm for local authorities

(ODEDEL). At the same time, no correction

mechanism or alert committee exists to oversee the

ODEDEL and prevent local expenditure overruns.

(

16

) Created as an independent fiscal body by the organic law

of 17 December 2012

The tax wedge on labour has fallen

substantially at the lower end of income

distribution, but remains high at the average

wage.

Between 2012 and 2015, the tax wedge was

reduced by around 1 ppt. at the average wage and

by more than 3 pps. for workers earning 50% of

the average wage. This change in trend is mainly

due to the introduction of the CICE and the RSP.

The tax wedge for very low income earners (50%

of the average wage), at 31.6%, was below the EU

average of 32.7% in 2015. For income earners at

the average wage, the tax wedge, at 48.7%,

remained above the EU average of 40.7% and one

of the highest in the EU, which may undermine the

functioning of the labour market.

Although

employers'

social

security

contributions are falling, they are still relatively

high.

At the average wage, France has the highest

employers' social security contributions in the EU

as a share of total labour costs paid by the

employer, which explains the relatively high tax

wedge. This partly stems from the social security

system being financed through employer's

contributions, which is only partially the case in

other countries. High employers' social security

contributions are also conducive to a large tax

burden on companies.

The high level of taxes weighing on companies

represents an obstacle to private investment

and hampers companies' growth

(European

Commission, 2016e). The effective average

corporate tax rate was the highest in the EU in

2016 (38.4 %) (ZEW, 2016). French corporate

income tax combines a high nominal rate (38 % in

2014 including the surcharge, the highest in the

EU), and relatively little revenue as a share of

GDP (2.7 % of GDP in 2014, against 2.4% in the

EU, for a nominal rate of 22.9% for the same year)

because of generous tax credits and relatively low

profit margins. Finally, the debt-equity tax bias in

corporate financing remains the highest in the EU

in 2016. Due to a less favourable tax treatment,

investments financed by equity need to earn 5

percentage points more in return than investments

financed by debt to yield the same after-tax return

(ZEW, 2016).

25

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

Other taxes on production (

17

) are particularly

high

(Graph 4.1.5). They stood at 3.1 % of GDP in

2015 (

18

), above Italy (2.0%), Spain (1.1%) or

Germany (0.4%), although it is generally accepted

that such taxes are particularly distortive since they

disregard the economic performance of the firm

and directly affect profit margins. These taxes have

not been curbed by recent policy measures and

have continued to increase in GDP terms since

2011, in spite of the phase-out of part of the

turnover tax (C3S). Local-level taxes account for

roughly two thirds of such taxes and have been

increasing as a share of GDP since the reform of

local government taxation. However, this increase

in tax revenue has stemmed mainly from a base

effect in recent years (Cour des Comptes, 2016b).

Graph 4.1.5:

Composition of total taxes on companies,

2015

insurance products and implicit rents on the main

property are taxed according to rental values which

have not been updated since the 1970s, while real

estate capital gains are not taxed. By contrast,

capital gains on securities are taxed according to

the progressive personal income tax regime.

Furthermore, specific tax regimes such as the full

exemption of savings products (e.g.

Livret A),

the

deductibility of interest from the corporate income

tax basis or the capital gain tax create a relative

distortion between fixed-income instruments (and

especially deposits) and shares. Such distortions

negatively affect growth, investment and financial

stability. To counterbalance some of these

discrepancies, the tax system also includes a high

number of tax rebates and specific schemes to

encourage investment in innovation, SMEs and

start-ups; one more has been introduced by the

2017 finance law.

The relative complexity of the tax system is a

barrier to a well-functioning business

environment.

France has a high tax burden

coupled with many tax breaks, reduced rates and

various tax schemes to address specific objectives.

It results in detailed rules and derogations that may

increase compliance costs and may create

uncertainties (France Stratégie, 2016b; Michel

Taly, 2016). Total tax expenditure is sizeable in

France at more than 3 % of GDP (CICE excluded).

Indicators commonly used to measure the

complexity level of a tax system show a

contrasting picture for France. In 2015, the country

scored well in terms of the number of hours

needed to comply with taxes (World Bank, 2016).

However, the administrative cost to tax authorities

of collecting taxes, as a percentage of tax

collected, was above the EU average in 2013

(latest data available) (OECD, 2015b). Looking at

trends, tax complexity has increased in recent

years. The General Tax Code (Code

général des

impôts)

expanded by 61 % (in number of pages)

between 2002 and 2015 (Cour des Comptes,

2016c).

The burden of taxation continues to fall less on

consumption than it does in other EU countries.

In 2014, France ranked 27th in the EU in terms of

tax revenues from consumption as a percentage of

total taxation (24.1 %) below neighbouring

countries such as Germany, Italy, or Spain, and the

Nordic countries (Graph 4.1.7).

18

16

14

% of GDP

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Other taxes on production (households

excluded)

Employers' actual social contributions - CICE

retrieved

Taxes on the income or profits of corporations

including holding gains

Source:

National Tax Lists 2016 and AMECO

Capital taxation in France is high compared to

other Member States and favours "lower-risk"

products investments like housing and deposits

over "riskier" investments like shares.

At

10.5 % in 2014, France's ratio of taxes on capital-

to-GDP was the third highest in the EU, above the

EU average (8.2 %). The overall tax burden on

capital increased by 1.3 pp. between 2010 and

2013, then stabilised in 2014. Furthermore, capital

taxation favours investment in housing and life

insurance. A reduced rate of 7.5 % applies to life

(

17

) Other taxes on production include more than 40 taxes

mainly on capital and on labour.

18

( ) This figure excludes producer households.

26

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

The VAT system is characterised by middle-

ranking standard rate and low reduced rates

applied to a large base.

France applies a standard

rate (20 %) which is middle-ranking as compared

with neighbouring countries (above Luxemburg

(17 %) and Germany (19 %), but below Belgium

(21 %), Italy (21 %) and Spain (21 %)), but

relatively low reduced rates – the 5.5 % reduced

rate is lower than that of neighbouring countries.

In addition, reduced rates are applied to a large

base, (European Commission, 2016c). In 2014, the

revenue foregone from applying reduced rates

represented 10 % of the theoretical total VAT

liability which would have resulted from a

perfectly flat system, above the 5.3 % EU average

(CASE, 2016). Furthermore, VAT compliance is

worsening (CASE, 2016).

Graph 4.1.6:

Taxes on consumption as percentage of total

taxation in 2014

30

29

28

As a result the taxation gap between diesel and

petrol is closing but still remains.

% of total taxation

27

26

25

24

23

22

2014

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Sweden

EU-28

Denmark

Finland

Source:

Taxation Trends in the European Union 2016

In terms of environmental taxation. recent tax

increases have not yet closed the gap with the

EU average.

Revenues from environmental taxes

steadily increased from 2009 onwards to reach

2.1% of GDP in 2014 (ranking 23rd in the EU), the

level that it had back in 2004. This remains below

the EU-28 average (2.5%), and, as a percentage of

total taxation (4.5%), France ranked 28th in the EU

in 2014. Environmental taxation is set to continue

to rise as the carbon tax will increase significantly

until 2030. In addition, excise duties on diesel have

increased in 2017 (by 0.01 EUR per litre) while

they have decreased on petrol by the same amount.

27

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4.1. Public finances and taxation

Box 4.1.1:

Effects of a tax shift from taxes on production factors to indirect taxes

The Council recommended France to reduce taxes on companies while broadening the tax base on

consumption, in particular as regards VAT. This box simulates a 0.5 point increase in the implicit

VAT rate (that would yield additional revenues of 0.4 % of GDP) using the DG ECFIN’s DSGE

model QUEST III (Ratto

et al.,

2009), assuming that these additional revenues (excluding second-

round and behavioural effects) are used to finance three policy alternatives and that VAT

compliance is constant. According to the calculation performed by the Joint Research Centre using

the EUROMOD model, an equivalent VAT reform has a negligible impact on tax incidence.

If the VAT increase is used to finance a reduction in social security contributions borne by

entrepreneurs, a short-term negative response by private investment and consumption is observed,

the latter eventually offset by an increase in employment and real wages. This tax shift brings

about a long-lasting increase in GDP and a reduction in the general government deficit (Graph 1).

If the VAT increase is used to finance an equivalent reduction in corporate income tax, GDP also

rises, driven by higher private investment. By contrast, private consumption and employment

decline with respect to the baseline. The general government balance deteriorates persistently due

to the increase in public transfers indexed to inflation.

A mixed policy option could consist of using the additional VAT revenues to finance cuts in social

security contributions (by 71 % of the additional VAT revenues) and corporate income tax rates

(by 25 %), while devoting the rest to raising social transfers targeted to financially-constrained

consumers. In that case, persistent GDP and employment increases are observed, jointly with

permanent fiscal consolidation and public-debt reduction.

Graph 1:

Impulse responses to an increase in VAT offset by three policy alternatives

%

GDP

%

Private investment

%

Private consumption

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

-0.02

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

0.02

0.00

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.08

-0.10

-0.12

-0.14

-0.50

-0.16

2021

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2022

2023

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2021

2022

2022

Social contributions

Mixed option

%

Corporate tax

Social contributions

Mixed option

Corporate tax

Social contributions

Mixed option

% of GDP

Corporate tax

Employment

% of GDP

General government balance

Public debt

0.10

0.10

0.05

0.00

-0.05

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

0.20

0.00

-0.20

-0.40

-0.15

-0.60

-0.02

-0.04

-0.10

2015

Social contributions

Mixed option

Corporate tax

Social contributions

Mixed option

Corporate tax

Social contributions

Mixed option

Corporate tax

Source:

European Commission

Furthermore, VAT compliance is worsening.

The compliance gap, which provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud, tax evasion, bankruptcies and miscalculations, has increased to 14 % of total VAT tax liabilities in 2014, against 12 % in 2013. Since 2011, the compliance gap in France has increased by 5 pps. of the total VAT tax liabilities (CASE, 2016). This is higher than in Spain (9 %) or Germany (10 %), but lower than in Italy (28 %).

28

2023

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2023

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4.2. FINANCIAL SECTOR

The French banking sector seems relatively

sound.

Domestic banks represent more than 90 %

of the French banking sectors total assets. The four

largest French banking institutions are considered

of global systemic importance by the Financial

Stability Board. Overall, French banks appear

somewhat more profitable than their counterparts

in the euro area, with a return on equity which

amounted to 6.8 % in 2015 compared to 4.4 % on

average in the euro area. French banks rely more

than their peers in the euro area on non-interest

rate income given the importance of investment

banking activities. They also benefit from

relatively low impairments. Moreover, French

banks are able to re-price liabilities more easily to

lower interest rates than their euro area peers

whereas asset repricing is occurring more slowly

than in the rest of the euro area (see Box 1.3 in

IMF 2016) implying that margins have suffered

less than for euro area peers from the low interest

rate environment. With a Tier 1 ratio of 13.8 %,

the capitalisation of French banks appears broadly

in line with that of their euro-area counterparts

(14.2 %) and slowly improving over time. Their

loan portfolio is less risky, with non-performing

loans representing a stable 3.5 % of the total

portfolio in Q1-2016 (vs. 5.6 % in the euro area).

Substantial progress has been made over the last

year in terms of stable funding, with a loan-to-

deposit ratio close to 102.7 % in 2015. Lower

dependence on short-term wholesale funding is an

asset when interbank markets experience

difficulties.

In an environment of low net interest income

across the euro area, banks' profitability is

under pressure from a structurally high cost-to-

income ratio.

The interest rates set by the

government on regulated savings instruments like

the Livret A or the "Plan

Epargne Logement"

appear relatively high and squeeze banks' interest

margins. This is especially true for the latter,

where the interest rate is fixed for the whole term

of the contract and currently stands at 2.5 % for the

existing stock of "Plan

Epargne Logement".

The

overall impact on banks' profitability is however

limited as deposits make up a relatively small

share of total liabilities (see above). In order to

address their high cost-to-income ratio, one of the

highest in the EU, banks are expected to continue

investing in digitalisation and to close branches,

although no massive lay-offs seem to be planned in

the short-term.

There has been some correction in house prices

since 2011.

Housing prices fell by 9 % between

their peak in the third quarter of 2011 and the first

29

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

quarter of 2016, although prices stabilised in recent

quarters. The correction observed since 2011 has

led to some correction in house prices with respect

to fundamentals. However, valuation metrics

continue to signal some risk of overvaluation.

Compared to the historical trends, price-to-rent and

price-to-income ratios suggest an overvaluation of

more than 20 %. Based on rental prices per square

meter, French house prices do not seem overvalued

compared to other euro area markets (see Dujardin

et al., 2015). Moreover, another metric based on

the relationship between house price, total

population, housing investment, real disposable

income per capita and the real long-term interest

rate suggests an overvaluation of only 3 %. The

latter metric is more strongly linked to supply and

demand fundamentals and confirms the qualitative

analysis also made in the 2015 Country Report

(European Commission, 2015c). More specifically,

structurally strong demand supported by positive

demographic trends and the absence of excess

housing supply together with prudent credit supply

by banking institutions suggest that downward

price pressure is limited and further downward

adjustment, if any, will be very gradual.

Mitigation measures exist to contain the impact

of house price developments on the financial

sector.

The decline in house prices since 2011 led

to a moderate rise of the loan-to-value ratio to

85 % for new loans and to 68 % for the existing

stock. However, credit standards are based on

revenue rather than housing value and more than

half of housing loans are secured by a guarantee

from a bank or an insurer, which reduces the

importance of the value of the collateral when

assessing credit risk. Therefore, in line with the

analysis in the Country Report 2015 (ibid.), a

moderate adjustment in house prices does not seem

to pose a considerable risk to the financial sector.

In contrast to residential real estate prices,

commercial real estate prices have significantly

increased over the past few years. As a result, the

Haut Conseil de Stabilité Financière (HCSF) asked

banks, insurance companies and investment funds

to perform stress tests. Depending on the results,

the authorities could consider macro-prudential

measures where appropriate.

The relatively low guaranteed interest rate and

the strong development of unit-linked business

mitigate the risks of the low interest rate

environment for French life insurers.

In contrast

to other Member States, the French insurance

industry has proposed very low guaranteed interest

rates on their traditional life insurance products.

For many years, this rate has been as low as 0 %,

so that the average guaranteed rate is now close to

0.51 %. This special circumstance has allowed

French insurers to suffer much less from the fall in

interest rates than insurers in other Member States,

where guaranteed interest rates have been much

higher. To compensate for this low guaranteed

interest rate, policyholders are remunerated by a

minimum mandatory profit sharing. While the

average return (including profit sharing) on life

insurance contracts of 2.34 % seems relatively

high, the mandatory minimum for profit sharing

does not seem to threaten life insurers at the

moment, thanks to some flexibility in the

modalities. At the same time, the surge in the unit-

linked business, which accounts for the majority of

new production, has allowed insurers to transfer

risks to the policyholders.

Graph 4.2.1:

Funding of non-financial corporations

80

70

60

% of GDP

FR

EU

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

0.01

50

40

30

20

10

0.01

0.00

0

Debt securities

Listed shares

MFI loans

Gross operating surplus:

corporations

Source:

ECB, AMECO (December 2015)

As in the rest of the euro area, SME access to

capital markets remains a challenge.

Capital

markets for large corporations are functioning

smoothly. The stock market is very deep and is

dominated by non-financial corporations. Market

debt funding of non-financial corporations has

been increasing and reached EUR 555 billion, i.e.

25.4 % of GDP in 2015, from less than 15 % in

2008. For SMEs, access to liquidity can be more

problematic as in the rest of the euro area. Banks

account for 61 % of funding, excluding equity, for

30

Venture capital (rhs)

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

all non-financial corporations in France, but this

figure rises to 96 % for SMEs. The French

authorities are trying to improve market access for

SMEs by various means, such as ensuring that

financial

information

requirements

are

proportionate, developing financial analysis on

SMEs and supporting institutionalisation of

crowdfunding. They are also expecting positive

effects from the Capital Markets Union.

31

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4.3. LABOUR MARKET, EDUCATION AND SOCIAL POLICIES

Unemployment is slowly decreasing from the

peak reached in 2015, although it remains high

for some categories of workers.

Having risen

steadily since 2008 (Graph 4.3.1), the

unemployment rate fell in 2016 (from 10.4 % in

2015 to 10.0 % in 2016) and is forecast to decrease

further in the coming years. However, in 2016 the

unemployment rate remained higher than in the

EU (8.6 %). Unemployment remains higher for

low-skilled (

19

) workers (17.4 % against 16.3 % in

the EU), especially if young (39.2 % compared to

28 % in the EU). The non-EU-born, representing

9.6 % of the working age population in 2015, are

facing increasing difficulties in accessing the

labour market; the unemployment rate for them

was 19.4 % in 2015, up from 19.0 % in 2014

(17.9 % in the EU in 2015).

Graph 4.3.1:

Unemployment rate in France, 2006-2015

45

40

35

30

(%)

compared to 42.5 % in 2014, while in both the EU

and euro area it had started to fall in 2015 (48.1 %

and 51.2 %). Very long–term unemployment (over

two years) also keeps increasing, to 22.0 % of the

unemployed in 2015, compared to 20.9 % in 2014.

There is a gender gap in the labour market.

In

2015, the employment rate was higher for men

(74 %) than women (66.6 %), while a higher share

of women worked part-time (30 % compared to

7.3 % of men). Moreover, the gender pay gap

(15.5 % in 2014) has only marginally decreased in

recent years. In turn, differences in work patterns,

wages and career lengths may have an impact on

women’s pension entitlements, which are 35 %

lower than men’s entitlements. The law of 4

August 2014 on real equality between women and

men and the November 2016 inter-ministerial

action plan aimed to promote gender equality in

the labour market. However, the joint taxation

system (quotient

conjugal)

creates disincentives

for second earners – mainly women – to enter the

labour market and to increase their working time

(OECD, 2012, 2016c; Landais, Piketty and Saez,

2011).

The employment situation of the non-EU-born

is deteriorating and the labour market inclusion

of second generations remains challenging.

The

employment rate of the non-EU-born residing in

France further decreased between 2014 and 2015

(from 55.4 % to 54.9 %) and the resulting

employment gap with the EU-born increased (at

16.5 pp. in 2015 and at about 22 pp. if considering

women alone). Their lower employment rate is

explained by a lower level of education on average

than native-born residents, a lower activity rate for

non-EU-born women (57.8 % in 2015 vs 75 %

among native-born women) and a higher

unemployment rate for non-EU-born men (19.8 %

in 2015 compared to 9.8 % among EU-born men).

In addition, second generations (i.e. native-born

with two foreign-born parents, representing 6.9 %

of the working age population in 2015) remain

penalised on the labour market; even when

accounting for differences in individual

characteristics, their chance of having a job is 15.7

pp. lower (OECD, 2014a). Indeed, in 2014, native-

born residents, aged 15-64 and with two

foreign-born parents, had an unemployment rate of

14.5 %, and as high as 49.6 % for young people,

compared with 8.8 % and 18.7 % for native-born

residents with native-born parents. Several recent

25

20

15

10

5

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

All

15-24 years, all

15-64, non-EU born

15-64, ISCED 0-2

15-24 years, ISCED 0-2

(1) The International Standard Classification of Education

(ISCED) is a statistical framework for organising information

on education maintained by the United Nations

Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

An ISCED level between 0 and 2 corresponds to less than

primary, primary and lower secondary education.

Source:

Eurostat

Long-term unemployment is still rising, in

contrast with the EU trend.

The average length

of unemployment has kept increasing well above

the 2008 level. The figure was 580 days (1 year

and 7 months) in November 2016, up from close to

400 days in 2008. As a percentage of total

unemployment, long-term unemployment (12

months or more) remained high at 42.6 % in 2015

(

19

) The ‘low-skilled’ are defined as part of the active

population with a lower secondary education diploma or

less (ISCED 0-2 levels).

32

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

studies have stressed the persistence of

discrimination among people with a migrant

background in hiring processes and the potential

positive macroeconomic impact on GDP of

reducing the impact of discriminations.

Labour market segmentation and rigidity

Segmentation of the labour market is

entrenched.

The proportion of temporary

contracts has been gradually increasing, and

reached 16.8 % of the total number of employees

in the third quarter of 2016. While the percentage

of temporary employment is slightly above the EU

average, its duration has been rapidly shortening

over time; at the end of 2015, almost one fifth of

temporary contracts were for less than one month.

On the other hand, France also appears to have one

of the lowest rates of mobility according to the EU

Labour Force Survey, with an average seniority of

11 years.

Rehiring and job instability are typical of

temporary contracts of short duration.

In 2000,

temporary hires accounted for 75 % of total

hirings. In 2016, they represented 86.4 % of total

hirings, with temporary jobs of less than one

month representing 80 % of total temporary hires.

Moreover, more than two thirds of the new hires

are rehires with an old employer (Unédic, 2016);

about half of these were rehires with the last

employer - twice the proportion in 1995.

Temporary rehiring concerns both activities where

the nature of the job justifies temporary

employment (i.e. the so-called

contrat à durée

déterminée d’usage)

and activities which have

seen a recent rapid increase of temporary

employment (e.g. health, construction, retail trade

and public administration). The transition rate

from a fixed-term contract to an open-ended

contract remains very low, at 10.9 % in 2015

compared with 23 % across the EU.

Impact of labour market reforms

law also contains measures to increase the

effectiveness of collective bargaining, mainly by

reducing the number of branches, introducing the

majority principle for the adoption of collective

agreements, reforming the rules underpinning the

denunciation and

revision of

collective

agreements,

and

introducing

‘offensive

agreements’ that firms can use to adjust wages and

working time arrangements, while maintaining or

increasing the level of employment. In particular,

firms will be able to adopt a collective agreement

that will prevail over individual contracts, even in

terms of working time and pay.

According to preliminary assessments, the

Labour Act is expected to reduce segmentation

of the labour market and to have a milder

impact on the level of employment.

According

to Kant, Ballot and Goudet (2016) the new

definition of economic dismissal would decrease

unemployment by 150 000 jobseekers in the short

term and create 200 000 jobs over 2 years, with

strong substitution effects from short to longer-

term contracts. The same study estimates that the

decrease in the minimum overtime premium from

25 % to 10 % - that can now be agreed upon by

social partners at firm level - will have an initial

negative impact for the employment of workers

aged 25-64 over the first 2 years after the adoption

of the law, which would be compensated over the

following 2 years.

The incentives to recruit on longer-term

contracts have helped to address labour market

segmentation in smaller firms.

The SME

recruitment incentive programme (prime

à

l'embauche PME)

(

20

) had benefited about 670 000

new employees as of October 2016. Two thirds of

these were on open-ended contracts, while the

remaining third were fixed-term contracts of 6 or

more months. According to recent French Treasury

estimates, the effect of this incentive on

employment would be to create or maintain, on

average, up to 60 000 jobs per year.

(

20

) This programme allows for an annual, lump sum, bonus of

EUR 2000 paid quarterly over a two-year period to

companies with fewer than 250 employees, which have

hired new employees on an open-ended or fixed-term

contract of more than 6 months between 18 January and 30

June 2017 for wages up to 1.3 time the statutory minimum

wage.

The Labour Act of 8 August 2016 addresses

some of the rigidities of the labour market.

This

law paves the way for a reform of the Labour Code

aiming at clearer differentiation between rules to

be defined by regulation, branch-level and firm-

level agreement, with the express intent to extend

the perimeter of autonomous firm-level rules and

to clarify individual economic dismissal rules. The

33

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

The recent evaluations of the

'crédit d’impôt

pour la compétitivité et l’emploi'

(CICE) have

pointed to its positive effect on firms’ profit

margins and employment, while the effects on

investment, R&D and exports are expected to

take time to materialise.

Based on the analysis of

firm-level data for 2013-2014 by three groups of

researchers, the CICE has been found to have a

positive impact on employment and firms’ profit

margins, although its effect on employment did not

increase when its credit rate increased from 4 % to

6 %. By contrast, no impact has been found on

average wages, only on some categories of wages

within certain firms. Also, no effect on investment,

R&D and exports has been found, given that the

period for which firm-level data are available at

the moment is too short. No comprehensive

evaluation of all social contribution reduction

schemes is yet available to assess their

architecture, socioeconomic impact or budgetary

efficiency.

Unemployment benefit system

In addition, the benefit calculation favours a

succession of short-term work periods.

The

unemployment insurance system mimics the

functioning of an unemployment account, whereby

a worker brings with him the rights acquired and

not used in previous occupations, when moving

between different jobs. This feature provides

incentives for the unemployed to look for work

more intensively since they do not lose their entire

stock of benefits by taking up a job. Yet, the

method used to calculate the unemployment

benefit gives employees an incentive to combine

revenues from short-term employment with

unemployment benefits, particularly in those

sectors where the

contrats d’usage

are

allowed (Cahuc and Prost, 2015). This has

favoured particular schemes, such as those

concerning the

contrats d’usage,

interim and

entertainment sector workers, whose structural

deficit is partly financed by a structural surplus in

the general scheme for open-ended contracts.

The financing of unemployment insurance does

not encourage firms to take into account the

consequences of their high labour turnover on

the deficit in the insurance funds.

By levying

higher contribution rates from sectors with higher

turnover, the law of 14 June 2013 addresses the

problem of firms with more stable recruitment

patterns subsidising firms with less stable

recruitment patterns (

21

). However, compared to

systems where contributions are firm-specific and

depend on the extent to which laid-off employees

claim unemployment benefits, the French

unemployment insurance does not require firms to

internalise the cost that layoffs impose on

unemployment insurance funds. On the contrary, it

provides an incentive for those economic

activities,

usually characterised

by low

productivity, which make most use of short-term

contracts interrupted by short spells of

unemployment for workers.

(

21

) Under the law of 14 June 2013, employers pay higher

social contributions for temporary hires of less than 3

months. For standard temporary contracts, justified to meet

the need for temporary increases in production, the

additional contribution is 3 % for contracts of less than

1 month and 1.5 % for contracts of duration between 1 and

3 months; for the

contrats d’usage

of less than 3 months,

the additional contribution is 0.5 %, while those of longer

duration are not taxed more than permanent contracts.

Since 2008, the deficit of the unemployment

insurance organisation has been rising steadily,

due to both business cycle and structural

features of the unemployment insurance system.

The 2008-2009 and 2011-2012 crises led to an

increase in the number of jobseekers eligible for

unemployment benefits from 2 million in 2008 to

2.8 million in 2016. Consequently, the budget

performance of the unemployment insurance

(Unédic) steadily worsened. In September 2016,

the deficit in the unemployment benefit system

was projected at EUR 4.3 billion in 2016 against

EUR 4.4 billion in 2015, leading to a further

increase in the system’s debt to EUR 30 billion in

2016 and to EUR 33.8 billion in 2017 (Unédic,

2016). The dynamics of the unemployment

insurance deficit and debt reflect a number of

factors beyond cyclical considerations, including

the design of unemployment benefits and job

instability linked to widespread very short

employment spells. While the replacement rate is

comparable to that of countries with similar levels

of GDP per capita, unemployment benefits are

capped at very high levels (over EUR 7 000), the

minimum contribution period is among the lowest

(4 months in 28 months) and the duration of

benefits is among the longest (24 months after

contributing for 24 months).

34

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Active labour market policies

Increased active labour market policy measures

targeting low-skilled young people have

succeeded in reducing low-qualified youth

unemployment only slightly.

The unemployment

rate for low-qualified young people decreased

from 40.3 % to 39.2 % between 2014 and 2015. To

address their difficulties in entering the labour

market the number of subsidised contracts

targeting low-skilled young people —

emplois

d’avenir, contrat initiative emploi (CUI-CIE)

and

contrat d’accompagnement dans l’emploi (CUI-

CAE)

— has been increased to reach 45 800 in the

market sector (+65 % between March 2015 and

March 2016) and remain stable at 101 300 in the

non-market sector. In the first quarter of 2016,

29.2 % of all young employed were on subsidised

contracts, as were 51.7 % of young employed

people without qualifications (DARES, 2016a).

Although these contracts have a positive short-

term effect on employment, they fail to foster

sustainable inclusion in the labour market; only

40 % of young people in the non-market sector

were employed 6 months after exiting a subsidised

contract and 66 % in the market sector, where

deadweight effect is more important (Cour

des

Comptes,

2016a). Also, some weaknesses were

identified in Youth Guarantee implementation in

terms of outreach, information and coordination

between actors (European Commission, 2016c).

In a flexicurity approach, training rights and

activation measures have been reinforced for

the more vulnerable.

The reinforcement of

training rights through the personal training

account for low-qualified workers and activation

measures for young unemployed people in

precarious situations, with the generalisation of the

Garantie Jeunes

scheme, is intended to support

personal transitions and economic adaptations.

Moreover, the personal activity account (compte

personnel d’activité,

CPA), introduced in January

2017, may reduce disparities related to

employment status, by attaching training rights

directly to workers.

Education and vocational training

year-old low achievers in the 2015 OECD

Programme for International Student Assessment

(PISA) is slightly above the EU average in all

three fields (22 % in science, 21 % in reading and

23 % in mathematics). Performance somewhat

worsened compared to 2012. The relationship

between socioeconomic background and student

performance remains strong. France shows one of

the largest gaps in the proportion of low achievers

in science between the lower and upper quarters on

the socioeconomic index of the 2015 PISA student

population (34.6 pp compared to an EU average

gap of 26.2 pp). There is also a large performance

gap between non-immigrants and first-generation

immigrants. Second-generation immigrants are

only partially catching up with non-immigrants.

There are large performance gaps between

schools in France. School composition often

reflects the residential concentration of people

with socioeconomic difficulties and migrant

background.

Disadvantaged children are unevenly

distributed across schools. Social diversity

decreases further for upper secondary education

levels (CNESCO, 2016a). Pupils with a

disadvantaged background tend to be steered more

often towards initial vocational education, as a

remedy for school problems, without regard to

their motivation. Indeed, initial vocational

education pupils account for 87 % of early drop

outs in France in 2013, while accounting for close

to 40 % in 2015 of all secondary school enrolment

(CNESCO, 2016c; DEPP, 2016d). Also, teachers

in ‘priority education networks’ targeting schools

in disadvantaged areas (réseaux

d’éducation

prioritaire)

tend to be younger, less experienced

and more likely not permanent appointees (OECD,

2015a).

Reform plans are being gradually implemented

to address these challenges through the

prevention of poor educational outcomes.

Begun

in 2013, the compulsory education reform seems to

go in the right direction, but its impact will depend

on actual implementation (MENESR, 2015;

CNESCO, 2016a). Full implementation of the

2014 priority education plan, further strengthening

support teaching staff among other measures, is

planned for 2017 with the creation of nearly 9000

new teaching posts at early education levels. Also,

to make the teaching profession more attractive, in

June 2016 the government announced an overhaul

of the salaries of teachers and staff to be rolled out

France faces wide performance gaps in basic

skills linked to students’ socioeconomic

background. Pupils with a migrant background

face additional difficulties.

The proportion of 15-

35

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

between 2017 and 2020 at a cost of EUR 1 billion.

Measures to improve school and career guidance

of pupils are being generalised, including the

‘Parcours Avenir’.

The initial system of vocational education and

training (VET) does not lead to an optimal

integration of young people in the labour

market.

France is one of the few OECD countries

where opting for VET does not provide better

employment outcomes than general education

(CNESCO,

2016b).

Production

sector

specialisations still offer better labour market

integration outcomes, while trade & sales and even

more secretarial training has a significantly lower

post-diploma employment rate, translating later

into a high unemployment rate (30 %). The figures

above cast doubt on whether the existing national

and local governance entities have been effective

in defining a range of education and initial training

based on economic needs and employment

prospects, rather than favouring available training

resources. In this respect, the 2014 VET reform

establishes new national and regional-level VET

and employment coordination bodies, while over

500 additional VET specialties in sectors with

good employment prospects have been announced

for the opening of the 2017 school year, along with

the creation of 1 000 specific teaching posts.

However, given the relative novelty of these

measures and announcements, their impact cannot

be assessed yet.

Apprenticeship presents better employment

outcomes than school-based initial VET.

Apprenticeship offers better labour market

integration perspectives, but is constrained by its

cost and its sensitivity to national and territorial

economic cycles, which affect company decisions

to hire apprentices (

22

). As a result, apprenticeship

represents only one fourth of initial VET. The

introduction of a low-qualified apprentice

premium and the increased public sector

commitment

have

recently

enabled

the

stabilisation of apprenticeship figures. Entry into

apprenticeship is also expected to be eased by its

gradual opening to professional qualifications.

Synergies between school and work-based VET

have also been initiated to reduce the drop-out rate.

(

22

) The cost of an apprentice (all levels) is 2.5 times that of a

school-based VET pupil in the production sector

(CNEFOP, 2016a; CNESCO, 2016b).

The continuous VET system has important

imbalances.

Continuous vocational training is

facing challenges as shown in France’s weak

results in the Programme for the International

Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC)

survey, in numeracy, literacy and ICT skills. The

continuous VET system is mostly characterised by

imbalances in access to training depending on the

labour market status (

23

): the unemployed, low-

qualified, older workers and small business

employees (

24

) have less chance of receiving

training while jobseekers access to training stood

at 9.8 % in 2014. The reform of companies’

contributions to VET financing, part of the 2014

VET reform, in increasing coverage of SME

employees and the unemployed, aimed to improve

access to continuous training. It remains to be seen

if this law will have an impact on both access to

training and governance, together with the new

coordination bodies created at national (CNEFOP)

and regional level (CREFOP) to develop shared

diagnosis on training needs. These issues are even

more important given the recent measures taken to

sustain demand for training, such as the personal

training account scheme (Compte

personnel de

formation,

CPF) introduced on 1 January 2015,

included in the personal activity account (Compte

personnel d'activité,

CPA) set up by the Labour

Act of 8 August 2016 (

25

), and the

plan 500 000

formations

of January 2016 (

26

).

Social policies

France fares better than the EU average on

poverty, social exclusion and inequalities,

with

the poverty rate steadying at around 13.6 % and

decreasing to 17.7 % for the population at risk of

(

23

) Workers on temporary contracts (CDD) can expect on

average 8 hours of training per year, whereas workers with

long-term contracts (CDI) can expect on average 19 hours

of training per year.

(

24

) Only 20 % of companies with 10 to 19 employees invest in

training, whereas 60 % of companies with between 1 000

and 1 999 employees invest in training.

(

25

) The Labour Act of 8 August 2016 created the new personal

activity account, including the personal training account,

extended additional training rights to 400 hours for

unskilled employees (against 150 hours normally) and

unlimited rights for early-school leavers. At the same time,

it extended the personal training account to civil servants

and independent workers.

26

( ) By January 2016, 500 000 additional training courses for

jobseekers were under way, with the aim of doubling their

number to 1 million, with financing of EUR 1 billion from

the State and local coordination by the regions. By the end

of November 2016, 945 000 training courses had been run.

The plan will be further pursued in the first half of 2017.

36

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

poverty or social exclusion in 2015 against

respectively 17.3 % and 23.7 % for the EU. The

impact of social transfers (representing 19.3 % of

GDP in 2014) (

27

) on poverty reduction remains

high, at 43.1 % in 2015, compared with the EU

average of 33.5 %. The intensity of poverty, as

calculated by national figures, increased slightly to

20.1 % in 2014 after falling from a peak of 21.3 %

in 2012 to 19.8 % in 2013. Similarly to most

Member States, the 2020 objective for reducing the

number of people at risk of poverty or social

exclusion therefore will be very difficult to reach.

Inequality, as measured by the Gini index of

disposable income decreased from 30.8 in 2011 to

29.2 in 2015. The ratio of average income of the

bottom quintile to that of the first quintile of

income distribution decreased from 4.5 in 2012 to

4.3 in 2015.

However, some more vulnerable groups are

more affected.

The poverty rate among

unemployed people increased again in 2015 (from

31.4 % in 2014 to 37.2 % in 2015, against the EU

average of 47.6 % in 2015), and the increasing

proportion of part-time workers, particularly those

who earn close to the minimum wage, has

translated into an increased risk of in-work poverty

since 2010 (from 6.5 % in 2010 to 7.5 % in 2015).

Although it remains below the EU average (9.5 %

in 2015), in-work poverty risk remains higher for

part-time workers (13.2 % in 2015). The

proportion of involuntary part-time employment

— as a percentage of total part-time employment

— has increased steadily in recent years and

reached 43.7 % in 2015, up from 30.8 % a decade

ago, with women representing a large majority of

involuntary part-timers. Moreover, children, young

people and single-parent families, remain at

particularly high risk of poverty (18.7 %, 17.9 %

and 36.7 % respectively in 2015). Non-EU born

are more affected by poverty and social exclusion

(33.2 % in 2015) than French native-born (15.2 %)

and their in-work poverty rate (18.5 %) is three-

time higher than that of native-born workers

(6.5 %).

Low-income earners’ access to affordable

housing remains a challenge.

There is a critical

(

27

) This figure does not include transfers to older people,

which are treated as pensions. The impact of social

transfers is calculated as the percentage difference between

the at-risk-of-poverty rate before and after social transfers.

shortage of affordable housing, including social

housing, in particular in growing urban areas.

Problems related to the lack of sufficient (social)

housing (Fondation Abbé Pierre, 2016; INSEE,

2016), affects more socially disadvantaged people

and in particular non-EU born. Around 1.7 million

people are on social housing waiting lists,

including nearly 500 000 people in Ile-de-France.

Homelessness levels are high and continue to rise;

141 000 homeless people were recorded in 2012,

which is a 50 % increase since 2001.

Measures were taken to simplify and increase

the activation component of income support

and its take-up at the bottom of the wage

scale (

28

).

As part of the implementation of the

multiannual antipoverty plan (adopted in January

2013) two wage support schemes (the

revenu de

solidarité active activité

and the

prime pour

l’emploi)

were merged into a single activity bonus

(the

prime d’activité)

as of 1 January 2016. The

latter is also open to people under 25 years of age,

unlike the previous

revenu de solidarité active

activité.

Data suggest that a 50 % claim rate had

already been reached by the end of the first quarter

of 2016 (i.e. 2 million beneficiaries), with over

3.8 million beneficiaries recorded in September

2016, one sixth of them being aged under 25.

Close monitoring of the effective impact of the

measures taken will be important.

(

28

) Complemented by a tax credit in 2014 and by abolishing

the lowest rate band in 2015, it has been further extended

to benefit 12 million tax units in 2016.

37

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Box 4.3.1:

Selected highlights: recent reforms to promote flexicurity in France

In recent years, France has adopted a number of important reforms aimed at improving the

functioning of the labour market.

Labour law has been reformed in order to increase hiring on permanent contract, by reducing legal

uncertainties in case of individual dismissal (notably defining clear layoff criteria for economic

reasons (

1

)) and by setting indicative floors and ceilings for financial compensation in case of

unfair individual dismissal. Furthermore, the functioning of individual work litigation courts

(prud'hommes) has been reviewed to reduce the procedural length. (

2

) In case of collective

dismissal, the layoff programme negotiated by social partners (

3

) now has to be simply validated

by the administrative court. Flexibility has also been strengthened at company level with the set-

up of ‘accords

de maintien de l’emploi’,

which allow the employers to reduce wages and/or

increase working hours in case of economic difficulties (

4

) or even, with some restrictions on

wages, in case of market expansion. The possibility to sign agreements at company level

derogating from branch level provisions has been reinforced in relation to the working time,

including on extra hours premium. Social dialogue has been reformed with the creation of a

dedicated fund for a better quality of social dialogue, the grouping of all mandatory consultations

of the Work Council into three per year, respectively on the strategy, the economic situation and

the social policy of the company (

5

) and the progressive application of the majority agreement at

company level.

In parallel, transitions are being progressively secured. Since 2011 the professional securing

contract has introduced more security for employees laid off in companies with less than 1000

employees or in bankrupt companies. The contract supports workers to get back to work by setting

up specific accompanying and training measures and grants. The introduction of ‘rechargeable

rights’ increases the incentive to return to a new job by preserving previously acquired rights. The

life-long learning dimension of flexicurity has been addressed with the adoption in 2014 of the

training act, (

6

) introducing a personal training account providing (

7

) rights directly attached to any

active person in the private sector all along her career. Additional support is provided for low-

qualified and early-school leavers through this account and a specific training action (

8

) plan has

been set up for unemployed in order to improve their adaptability, with a focus on long term

unemployed.

Building on the personal training account, a personal activity account is operational since January

2017. This account is accessible to all, including civil servants, unemployed and self-employed. It

allows them to have access to all the rights acquired throughout their career both in terms of

training and hardship (accumulation of rights for retirement).

Effective access to training for the

low-qualified and the unemployed remains to be further assessed, as well as the impact of

increased labour market flexibility on the use of permanent contracts, while the reform of the

unemployment benefit system has been delayed and is expected for 2017.

(

1

)

(

2

)

(

3

)

(

4

)

(

5

)

(

6

)

(

7

)

(

8

)

Labour Act of 8 August 2016.

Law of 6 August 2015 on economic growth and activity and decree of May 2016.

Law of 14 June 2013 on securing employment.

Law of 14 June 2013 on securing employment and Law of 6 August 2015 on economic growth and activity.

Social dialogue Act of 17 August 2015.

Law of 5 March 2014 on vocational training, employment and social democracy.

Now merged with the personal activity account.

Plan of 500 000 additional trainings to jobseekers of January 2016.

38

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4.4. COMPETITIVENESS

Export of goods*

French export market shares of goods have

stabilised in recent years.

French exports

accelerated from 2013 to 2015, while world trade

slowed. As a result, export market shares

stabilised. However, while France recorded small

market share gains in countries outside the EU, it

still faced losses in EU countries (Graph 4.4.1).

France’s initial geographical specialisation has had

a broadly neutral effect in recent years.

Graph 4.4.1:

Export market share breakdown for France –

Goods

4%

2%

0%

-2%

winter forecast (ibid.), export performance (

29

) is

expected to further deteriorate in 2017, reaching a

new historical low (Graph 4.4.2). Exports of

refined petroleum products were hit by strikes in

the refineries in the second quarter of 2016, while

delays in Airbus deliveries affected aircraft

exports, and unfavourable weather conditions

weighed on agricultural crops. However, other

temporary factors contributed positively in 2016,

such as the delivery of the

Harmony of the sea,

the

largest passenger ship in the world, which boosted

exports of ships and boats.

Graph 4.4.2:

French export performance – Goods

Export performance in goods

105

1999 = 100

forecast

-4%

-6%

-8%

100

-10%

-12%

-14%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

95

Market share gains within geographical markets - extra-EU

Market share gains within geographical markets - intra-EU

Initial geographical specialisation - extra-EU

Initial geographical specialisation - intra-EU

Total market share change

90

85

Source:

COMTRADE, European Commission

80

Exports of goods recorded strong growth in

2015, mainly driven by transport equipment.

Aircraft industry exports have posted strong

growth rates since 2010 and now largely exceed

their pre-crisis levels. By contrast, the motor

vehicle industry had suffered dramatically from the

crisis, and benefited in 2015 from the recovery of

the European market in this sector. These two

sectors, which represent only a sixth of total goods

exports, accounted for almost half of export

growth in value in 2015. They are also the sectors

with the highest exchange rate elasticity

(Héricourt, Martin and Orefice, 2014) and have

thus gained most from the depreciation of the euro.

In 2016, exports of goods barely grew,

hampered by temporary factors affecting

specific sectors.

Goods exports grew by 1.5 % in

volume in 2016, after 6.5 % in 2015. As a result,

exports fell well short of French export market

growth in 2016, leading to a deterioration of export

performance. According to the Commission’s

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Source:

Commission 2017 winter forecast

Looking beyond year-on-year volatility, French

exports of goods continue to perform poorly,

with the exception of the aircraft sector.

Excluding the two sectors that have contributed

most to export growth since 2014, namely aircrafts

and motor vehicles, goods exports have been

broadly flat since 2012, at a level close to their

pre-crisis peak (Graph 4.4.3). For instance,

France’s overall share in the EU-28’s increasing

processed and unprocessed food exports has fallen

in recent years, both for extra- and intra-EU trade.

The increased reliance of export growth on a few

sectors makes French export performance

vulnerable to specific developments in those

sectors, as seen in 2016, particularly in the aircraft

sector whose share of total exports rose from 8.0 %

in 2007 to 12.7 % in 2015.

(

29

) Export performance is defined as the ratio between French

exports of goods and services in volume and French export

markets in volume.

39

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4.4. Competitiveness

Graph 4.4.3:

Exports of selected sectors (in value) – France

160

150

140

130

120

One-year moving average, 2008 = 100

Graph 4.4.4:

Share of export values per 5 categories of

quality rank – France (% of total exports)

40%

30%

110

100

90

80

70

60

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0%

bottom

low

middle

high

top quality

(0.0 - 0.2) (0.2 - 0.4) (0.4 - 0.6) (0.6 - 0.8) (0.8 - 1.0)

2005

2010

2015

10%

20%

Air- and spacecraft and related machinery

Motor vehicles

Other goods

Source:

Comext

Source:

Comext, Orbis, European Commission

Quality of exports of goods*

The average quality of French exports (

30

) has

deteriorated slightly in recent years.

In

particular, France’s quality rank has declined

markedly in the motor vehicle sector, which

accounts for 16 % of total manufacturing exports

to the EU and, to a lesser extent, in the chemical

sector (13 % of total manufacturing exports to the

EU), in which France is middle-ranking.

The share of high and middle quality exports in

total goods exports has significantly decreased,

while the share of both top and low quality

exports has increased.

The share of top quality

exports in total exports is significantly larger in

France than in Germany, Italy and Spain. Top

quality exports are a specific feature of French

exports, linked to the high performance of the

aircraft industry and luxury sector. However,

France has lost substantial market shares in high

and middle quality exports (Graph 4.4.4). This can

be linked to the deterioration of both cost and non-

cost competitiveness, in particular compared to

Germany which is highly specialised in this quality

range. On the other hand, low quality exports are

in more direct competition with Spain which

benefits from substantially lower labour costs.

(

30

) The quality of exports is defined as the normalized quality

rank index based on the method explained in

Vandenbussche (2014). A quality rank of 1 reflects the

highest quality in the EU market for a particular 'country of

origin-product', while 0 is the lowest quality rank.

Exports of services*

French exports are increasingly specialised in

services.

In France, exports of services represented

almost a third of total exports in 2015, compared to

17 % in Germany. Among the five major EU

economies, only the United Kingdom has a higher

share of services in total exports, at 44 %

(Graph 4.4.6) (

31

). In addition, the share of services

in total exports has steadily increased over the past

decade, as exports of services grew by 5.9 % per

year on average in value from 2005 to 2015,

compared to only 2.7 % for goods. This is also the

case by volume, excluding a pure price effect. The

relative evolution of exports of services is

particularly important in France compared to the

other countries, except the UK. The share of

services has increased much less in Germany, and

has even fallen slightly in Italy and Spain. France

exports primarily technical, trade-related and other

business services, tourism and transport services.

These three sectors made up 57 % of French

exports in services in 2015. While the UK is also

strongly specialised in business services, its

strongest exporting sector is the finance sector

(

31

) This is true only according to balance of payments

statistics. In the specific case of France, there is a

significant discrepancy between balance of payments

(BoP) and national accounts (NA) statistics concerning

exports. According to BoP data, the services' share of total

exports is 32 %, while it is only 28 % according to NA

data. This share is 30 % for Spain, regardless of the data

source.

40

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4.4. Competitiveness

Graph 4.4.5:

Exports market shares in value and in volume – France

Export market shares in value

Export market shares in volume

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

1999=100

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

1999=100

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Goods

Source:

Eurostat, IMF

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Services

Total

Goods

Services

Total

which made up 23 % of total British exports of

services in 2015.

Graph 4.4.6:

Share of services in total exports in selected EU

countries

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

amounted to 5.1 % in 2015 (down from 5.7 % in

2008), 2 pps. above goods (3.2 % in 2015, down

from 3.8 % in 1999, Graph 4.4.5, lhs). The decline

in export market shares in services in 2015 is only

due to valuation effects linked to the euro

depreciation. In volume, export market shares in

services have even been on the rise since 2008,

while export market shares in goods have

continued declining until 2014. The stabilisation of

export market shares in France over the past few

years is thus to a large extent attributable to the

good performance of exports in services

(Graph 4.4.5, rhs).

Unit labour costs and productivity*

FR

DE

IT

ES

UK

Source:

Eurostat – Balance of payments

Export market shares in services have been

more resilient than those in goods since 2008,

indicating a growing specialisation of French

exports towards services.

While French export

market shares in value have been on a long-term

declining trend at a comparable pace for both

goods and services, this decline has been more

pronounced for goods since the economic crisis.

The share of France in global exports of services

From 1999 to 2013, France lost cost

competitiveness compared to the rest of the

euro area, with unit labour costs increasing at a

faster pace in France in both nominal and real

terms.

From 1999 to 2008, French nominal unit

labour costs per head increased in line with the

French GDP deflator, at 2.0 % per year on

average (

32

). The loss of relative cost

competitiveness is largely due to the containment

of unit labour costs in the rest of the euro area

(1.7 % per year on average) – in particular in

Germany where nominal unit labour costs per head

remained almost flat during this period (0.1 % per

year on average). This resulted in a decline in real

(

32

) HICP inflation grew by 2.1% per year on average during

the same period.

41

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4.4. Competitiveness

Table 4.4.1:

Labour productivity growth (per person employed) in France and in the rest of the euro area

France

Rest of the EA

Source:

Eurostat

95-00

1.3

1.3

00-05

1.1

0.6

05-10

0.4

0.4

11

1.3

1.4

12

-0.1

-0.6

13

0.3

0.3

14

0.2

0.7

15

0.8

1.1

unit labour costs of the rest of the euro area, while

real unit labour costs were stable in France

(Graph 4.4.7). From 2008 to 2013, there has been a

decoupling between the trend in nominal unit

labour costs and the GDP deflator in France.

Specifically, unit labour costs rose by 1.8 % per

year on average, while HICP inflation averaged

1.5 % and the GDP deflator rose by only 0.8 %. In

the rest of the euro area, unit labour costs grew by

less (1.4 %) and more in line with GDP deflator

inflation (

33

). This resulted in a further

deterioration

of

France’s

relative

cost

competitiveness during this period, this time for

domestic reasons.

Graph 4.4.7:

Real unit labour costs in selected EA countries

(deflated by GDP deflator) – whole economy

106

104

102

100

increased by 1.2 % in France, and −0.3 % once the

Tax credit for competitiveness and employment

(CICE) is taken into account, compared to 1.0 % in

the euro area as a whole.

Graph 4.4.8:

Breakdown of real unit labour costs in France –

whole economy

12%

8%

4%

0%

-4%

-8%

3 years % change

1999=100

-12%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

GDP deflator

Inv. labour productivity

Nom. comp. per employee

Real ULC

98

96

94

(*) Inv. labour productivity: higher productivity growth is

related to a more negative contribution to real ULC growth.

Source:

Eurostat

92

90

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

FR

DE

ES

FR (incl. CICE)

IT

EA19

Source:

Eurostat

Cost competitiveness has improved since 2013,

in particular thanks to measures taken to

reduce the labour tax wedge, but accumulated

past losses have still not been recovered.

Over

the past two years, unit labour costs per head

(

33

) Unit labour costs per hour evolved in line with unit labour

costs per head. From 1999 to 2008, unit labour costs per

hour increased by 1.9% on average in France, against 1.6%

in the euro area and 0.0% in Germany. From 2008 to 2013,

unit labour costs per hour increased by 1.7% on average in

France, against 1.5% in the euro area.

Wage moderation continues, but low

productivity growth prevents a faster recovery

of cost competitiveness.

Labour productivity

growth has slowed since the crisis (Graph 4.4.8).

This is largely due to a decline in TFP growth,

despite a continued increase in capital intensity

(see Section 1). While averaging 1.0 % from 2000

to 2008, labour productivity growth was only

0.3 % per year from 2008 to 2015. It recovered

somewhat in 2015 (+0.8 %) but remained below

both pre-crisis growth rates and productivity

growth in the rest of the euro area (Table 4.4.1).

Productivity developments have been impacted in

recent years by measures to foster higher

employment growth (the Tax credit for

competitiveness

and

employment,

the

Responsibility and solidarity pact, and the Hiring

subsidy) but these measures cannot explain the full

extent of the productivity slowdown since 2008.

42

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4.4. Competitiveness

Turning to a sectoral analysis, unit labour costs

have increased at a slower pace than in the euro

area since 2008 in industry, but have risen more

substantially in the construction sector.

This is

due to fall in productivity in the construction sector

since 2008, which may be one of the reasons why

real estate prices are particularly high in France. In

agriculture, productivity grew less in France than

in the EU-15, as in the last 10 years capital and

intermediate consumption productivity fell. By

contrast, unit labour costs grew slightly less than in

the euro area in both industry and market services,

in particular compared to Germany and Italy while

Spain experienced a decrease (Graph 4.4.9).

However, in levels, while labour costs are now

lower in France than in Germany in industry, they

remain substantially higher in market services, in

particular in transport services.

Graph 4.4.9:

Sectoral breakdown of unit labour costs

(average annual growth rate 2008-2015)

4%

the composition of investment, France is on a par

with the rest of the euro area when it comes to

productive investment, which broadly involves

spending on machinery, equipment and intellectual

property assets (Graph 4.4.10, upper lhs) (

34

). At

the same time, France outperforms Germany, Italy,

Spain and the euro area as a whole when it comes

to non-productive investment in construction

(Graph 4.4.10, upper rhs).

The relatively low level of machinery and

equipment investment is more than offset by a

markedly high level of investment in intellectual

property assets.

While France can be compared

with the rest euro area as regards productive

investment, the part of it allocated to machinery

and equipment (including information and

communication technologies) is relatively low

(around 20% lower than the euro area average for

the last twenty years, Graph4.4.10, lower lhs). This

phenomenon is partly explained by the productive

structure of the French economy and, in particular,

by the strong weight of services. At the same time,

French productive investment in intellectual

property assets has been persistently high

rendering France one of the best performers in this

area. In 2015, investment in intellectual property

represented 5.8 % of value added in France, as

compared to 4.3 % in the euro area and 4 % in

Germany (Graph4.4.10, lower rhs).

Investment patterns have implications for the

competitiveness of French firms.

Although

barriers to investment are overall moderate (Box

4.4.1), investment is concentrated around a limited

number of larger firms (75% of total investments

was undertaken by 1% of firms in 2012) implying

a positive link between the firm size and the

capacity to invest. Investment in research and

development in manufacturing is concentrated in

subsectors of declining economic importance as

measured by their value added, which has

implications for the long-term growth potential of

the whole economy (Section 4.5 on innovation).

This is the case in particular for the R&D intensive

sectors of motor vehicles, computer, electronic and

optical products, and pharmaceuticals whose share

(

34

) Productive investment is investment directed to machinery

and equipment, including robots and equipment in

information and communication technologies. It also

involves intellectual property assets, including R&D and

other intangible assets, while it excludes investment for

construction purposes (De Galhau Report, 2015).

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

Inv. labour productivity

(*) Inv. labour productivity: higher productivity growth is

related to a more negative contribution to ULC growth.

Source:

Eurostat

Investment*

Investment in France has weathered the global

financial crisis markedly well.

Since 2008,

investment has been broadly stable and currently

stands close to its pre-crisis level, as opposed to

the deep downward adjustment observed in other

large economies, including Spain, Italy and the

euro area as a whole. This robust investment

performance has been supported by both private

and public investment that amounted to about 18%

and 3.5% of GDP respectively in 2015. Looking at

Industry

Construction

Market services

Total

Industry

Construction

Market services

Total

Industry

Construction

Market services

Total

Industry

Construction

Market services

Total

Industry

Construction

Market services

Total

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

Euro area

Comp. per empl.

Unit labour costs

43

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4.4. Competitiveness

Graph 4.4.10:

Investment composition (% of value added) – whole economy

Productive investment

12.0

13.0

10.0

12.0

Construction investment excl. dwellings

8.0

11.0

10.0

9.0

8.0

7.0

95

97

EA

France

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

95

97

EA

France

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

Germany

Italy

Spain

Germany

Italy

Spain

Machinery and equipment

10.0

9.0

5.0

8.0

4.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

95

97

99

EA

France

Source:

Eurostat

Intellectual property products

6.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

01

03

05

07

09

11

Spain

13

15

95

97

99

EA

France

01

03

05

07

09

11

Spain

13

15

Germany

Italy

Germany

Italy

in the total value added of the economy shows a

declining trend (European Commission, 2016c).

While corporate investment is high, integration

of digital technologies by businesses remains

low.

France ranks 18

th

among EU Member States

and is positioned below the EU average as regards

the degree of business digitisation and firms’ use

of e-commerce activities, according to the

European Commission Digital Economy and

Society Index. Although the share of ICT

specialists in total employment in France is

comparable to the EU average (3.6% in 2015), this

share is smaller in French SMEs compared to the

EU average (14.5% as opposed to 20%), according

to the 2016 European Commission Small Business

Act report (European Commission, 2016g).

A series of policy measures have been adopted

to support productive investment by firms.

During the last years the authorities have taken

action to improve the business environment and to

address the regulatory bottlenecks that hinder

investment decisions in France (Box 4.4.1). In

addition, fiscal incentives and measures to

facilitate financing for investors have been put in

place since 2015 in the context of the French

Investment Plan. The exceptional capital

depreciation targeting equipment investment in the

manufacturing sector in particular (over-

amortisation scheme) has attempted to boost this

44

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4.4. Competitiveness

particular type of investment. This fiscal incentive

has already shown some positive results and its

validity has been extended until mid-April 2017.

Meanwhile, the co-financing capacity of the public

investment bank for tangible and intangible

investment projects has been strengthened with a

view to supporting the modernisation of French

firms. Finally, access to equity for the financing of

longer-term projects has been eased through

measures to better link savings collected by private

funds (e.g. pension or life insurance funds) with

the capital market.

Business environment*

Although France has improved its overall

regulatory

performance,

its

business

environment continues to be middle-ranking.

According to the distance-to-frontier criterion used

in World Bank surveys (

35

), since 2010 France has

closed part of the gap with the best performers in

business regulations. The World Bank’s 2017

Doing Business survey ranks France 29

th

out of

190 economies assessed, one position down

compared to last year. France is also 15

th

among

the EU Member States. The 2016-2017 Global

Competitiveness Report by the World Economic

Forum (WEF) ranks France 21

st

out of 138

countries assessed, one position up compared to

last year, given improvements in the

macroeconomic environment and building permit

procedures. According to the WEF, the three most

problematic factors for doing business in France

remain, as last year, the restrictive labour

regulations, the high tax rates and the tax

regulations. France is also in 115

th

place as regards

the burden of government regulation. Some 89 %

of the French SMEs responding to a 2016

Commission Survey find that complexity of

administrative procedures is a problem for doing

business in France (EU average: 62 %) and this

score has fallen by six percentage points since

2013 (

36

).

Registering property, getting credit and paying

taxes is more difficult or costly for businesses in

(

35

) The distance to frontier (DTF) score helps assess the

absolute level of regulatory performance of a country over

time with higher values indicating a better performance. It

measures the distance of each economy to the best

performance observed on each of the indicators across all

economies in the Doing Business sample.

(

36

) European Commission, 2016g.

France than in most other developed economies.

France fell 9 places compared to last year for

registering property, by the World Bank’s

assessment. While economies worldwide have

been making it easier for entrepreneurs to register

and transfer property, e.g. by introducing time

limits for procedures and by setting low fixed fees,

France has made transferring property more

expensive by increasing the property transfer tax

rate and by introducing an additional tax on

businesses in Paris. Registering property in France

takes 64 days and costs 7.3 % of the property

value. As regards access to credit, according to the

World Bank, the effectiveness of collateral and

bankruptcy laws is relatively low, while weak legal

rights for borrowers and lenders together with poor

sharing of credit information make access to credit

more difficult for businesses. Nevertheless,

according to Commission surveys, French SMEs’

access to finance is in line with the EU

average (

37

). On the positive side, France has

improved its ranking by 10 places as regards

dealing with construction permits, by reducing the

cost of obtaining a permit, although the time

needed remains relatively long (183 days

compared to around 60 in the UK and 90 in

Germany). France also appears first in the

worldwide classification as regards ease of trading

a shipment of goods across borders.

Although trading across borders is relatively

easy and cheap, French SMEs participate less

than other European SMEs in the EU’s Single

Market (

38

).

Despite the low cost and short time

needed in France to trade a shipment of goods, the

percentage of French SMEs exporting within the

EU (7.8 %) is relatively low and largely focuses on

French-speaking countries such as Belgium and

Switzerland (Douanes, 2015). This trend can be

explained by a number of factors, including the

lesser need to export given the large domestic

market, the relatively smaller proportion of

medium-sized firms, language and cultural factors,

and the regulatory environment for exporting

firms.

(

37

) European Commission, 2016g.

(

38

) European Commission, 2016g.

45

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4.4. Competitiveness

Box 4.4.1:

Investment challenges and reforms in France

Section 1. Macroeconomic perspective

Total investment in France (measured as gross fixed capital formation) proved to be fairly resilient to the

global financial crisis. Construction investment has been maintained at relatively high levels, standing at

11.6% of GDP in 2015, above the euro area average. Equipment investment is slowly gaining ground

supported by fiscal incentives for amortisation, while investment in machinery and metal products has

remained broadly stable following the crisis. Favourable financing conditions overall and improved profit

margins continue to support investment by corporates despite their high indebtedness. All investment

components are expected to contribute in 2017 to the increase in the share of investment in GDP, with a

slightly stronger role played by investment in equipment.

Section 2. Assessment of barriers to investment and ongoing reforms

Public administration/ Business

environment

Financial

Sector /

Taxation

Regulatory/ administrative burden

Public administration

Public procurement /PPPs

Judicial system

Insolvency framework

Competition and regulatory

framework

EPL & framework for labour contracts

Wages & wage setting

Education

CSR

Taxation

Access to finance

Cooperation btw academia, research and

business

Financing of R&D&I

Business services / Regulated professions

Retail

Construction

Digital Economy / Telecom

Energy

Transport

CSR

R&D&I

CSR

CSR

Labour

market/

Education

CSR

CSR

Sector specific regulation

CSR

Legend

No barrier to investment identified

CSR

Investment barriers that are also subject to a CSR

No progress

Limited progress

Some progress

Substantial progress

Fully addressed

Barriers to private investment in France are moderate overall (European Commission, 2015b). Some progress

has been made in reducing the regulatory and administrative burden on firms through continued

implementation of the simplification programme. Efforts to streamline employment protection legislation and

to review wages and the wage setting framework have been stepped up, notably through the 2016 labour

market reform. France has also made some progress in making taxation more business-friendly, by further

reducing the labour tax wedge and by allowing for a gradual reduction in corporate income taxes. Efforts to

remove barriers to activity in the services sectors have resumed. However, there has been limited progress

overall in improving the financing of R&D&I, supporting the digitalisation of the economy and improving

the regulatory framework of the energy sector.

Main barriers to investment and priority actions underway

1.

Among the main barriers to private investment, the regulatory environment remains a key aspect.

Despite ongoing simplification efforts, firms are faced with a relatively heavy and complex regulatory

framework while regulatory instability weighs on business perception (see Section 4.4). Regulatory

bottlenecks in some network industries, notably in the energy and transport sectors, discourage investment in

those sectors. Infrastructure investment faces administrative barriers such as lengthy authorisation procedures.

The government has attempted to address these weaknesses, notably through the simplification programme.

Among other things, the programme has eased authorisation requirements and building permits for renewable

energy projects and for the deployment of broadband networks.

2.

The level and complexity of the taxation system affects investment decisions. While efforts are

being made to reduce the labour tax wedge and corporate income taxation, other taxes on production continue

to increase, and the tax system remains complex (see section 4.1).

46

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4.4. Competitiveness

Regulatory instability remains high and weighs

on business perceptions.

Some 89 % of the

French SMEs still find that fast-changing

legislation is a problem for doing business in

France (EU average: 64 %), in spite of the

adoption of the ‘regulation freeze’ principle in

2013 according to which the introduction of any

new rule should be followed by the removal or

simplification of another rule (

39

). French firms

find it crucial that the government focuses on a

smaller number of changes, i.e. on those that

indeed bring major simplifications, including at the

level of state agencies and at local and regional

levels (

40

). Impact assessments are a constitutional

requirement for bill of laws and different

requirements apply to decrees or by-laws. A 2015

circular (

41

) has provided guidance to the

ministries on how to assess whether a regulation

needs to be subject to an impact assessment and

has set out the procedure to determine if the

regulation must be subject to a SME panel.

Threshold effects continue to affect the

evolution of firms with implications for their

economic and market performance.

Increased

social and fiscal obligations applicable to firms

above a certain number of employees may

discourage them from expanding to a size that

would allow them to export and innovate (Section

4.5 on innovation). These threshold effects can, in

turn, affect firms’ productivity, competitiveness

and internationalisation. Indeed, according to

empirical evidence, the 10 and 50 employee

thresholds

are

particularly

costly

for

42

employers ( ), while the French economy is

characterized by a disproportionally low share of

companies above these thresholds implying a link

between these two phenomena (European

Commission, 2016c).

The government has taken systematic action to

reduce red tape for businesses.

The

simplification programme, started in 2013 to

simplify firms' administrative, fiscal and

accounting rules (the ‘choc

de simplification’)

and

(

39

) Under the Order of 17 July 2013 relating to the regulation

chill (Circulaire du 17 juillet 2013 relative à la mise en

oeuvre du gel de la réglementation).

(

40

) European Commission, 2016g.

(

41

) Circular of the Prime minister of 12 October 2015.

(

42

) The 50 employee threshold is estimated to represent an

aggregate cost of between 0.5 % and 4.5 % of GDP

depending on the degree of downward wage rigidity

(Garicano et al., 2016).

is ongoing. A new batch of 48 measures was

announced on 24 October 2016, bringing the total

number of business-oriented measures close to

463. Although the programme is progressing as

planned, implementation is uneven with 262

business-oriented measures (63 %) currently in

effect and a significant amount of measures

adopted before 2016 not yet implemented (

43

).

Moreover, the programme relies on a small

number of measures for most of its effectiveness.

While the savings for businesses from the 262

measures implemented so far are estimated at

around EUR 5 billion a year (

44

), nearly EUR 3

billion of this should stem from simplifying

declaration procedures linked to salaries and other

social data on employees (the

declaration sociale

nominative).

New measures aim to support business creation

and entrepreneurship.

Among other things, the

law on transparency, anti-corruption and economic

modernisation of 8 November 2016 eased training

requirements prior to starting a business and

removed the requirement for micro-entrepreneurs

to open a second bank account at least during the

first year of business. The same law made it easier

for growing small businesses to switch from sole

trader status to another status, notably limited

liability sole proprietorship status or single-

member private company status. By contrast, since

the end of 2015, France has not taken new

initiatives to soften the impact of size-related

requirements on companies' growth, while the

effectiveness of the reforms that were adopted in

2015, notably the Social Dialogue law and the

2016 budget law, may be hampered by their

limited scope and the temporary nature of some

measures.

(

43

) On 7 November 2016, France indicated that 89 measures

adopted before 2016 were not in force yet. According to

our estimates, this represents nearly one third of the

measures adopted before 2016.

(

44

) Study carried out by Ernst and Young on the basis of the

French government's impact assessment analysis.

47

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4.5. SECTORAL POLICIES

Innovation

The French national innovation system does not

perform as well as Europe's innovation leaders.

According to the 2016 European Innovation

Scoreboard (EIS), France ranks 11th in the EU,

and its performance has remained stable over time

compared to the best performers: its combined

performance in the scoreboard stood at 86 % of

that of the innovation leaders (

45

) in 2015, against

85 % in 2008. France's strengths are in some

enabling factors of innovation, such as the quality

and openness of research systems (

46

) and skilled

human resources (

47

). Factors linked to company

activities and outputs show a contrasting picture.

SMEs are rather good at introducing innovations.

However, France ranks below the EU average for

intellectual assets, especially trademarks and

designs, despite high investment in this area

(Subsection investment, Section 4.4). Finally, the

performance is just above EU average for linkages

(i.e. cooperation between actors in the innovation

system) (Graph 4.5.1).

Private investment in R&D is just above EU

average.

At 1.5 % of GDP in 2015, France ranked

8th in the EU as regards private R&D spending, an

intermediate position between the EU average (1.3

%), and the innovation leaders (1.8%).

Furthermore, private R&D is concentrated in

sectors of declining economic importance as

measured by their value added (European

Commission, 2016c).

In addition, private R&D comes at a high cost

to public finances.

France ranked 2

nd

in the EU in

2015 in terms of public funding of business R&D

(Graph 4.5.2). The discrepancy between the

amount of public support, the output in terms of

private investment and its intermediate innovation

performance raises questions about the efficiency

of public support schemes. In particular, the

research and innovation tax credit (CIR), which

amounted to EUR 5.1 billion of foregone revenue

in 2015 (0.3 % of GDP, and roughly three quarters

of public support for private R&D) has a positive

impact on corporate R&D, but its impact in terms

(

45

) Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands

make up the group of innovation leaders in the European

Innovation Scoreboard.

(

46

) Measured by a high level of non-EU doctorate students, or

a high number of international scientific co-publications

47

( ) Measured by the high share of the population with upper

secondary level education or completed tertiary education

of innovation output has yet to be proven. Its real

impact may be to help firms that invest in R&D

survive better than those that do not (OECD,

2014b).

Graph 4.5.1:

Performance of France's innovation system -

distance to EU innovation leaders and to EU

average

Human

resources

0.8

Economic

effects

0.6

0.4

0.2

Finance

and

support

Research

systems

Innovators

0.0

Intellectual

assets

Firm

investment

s

France

EU

Linkages

&

entreprene

urship

Innovation leaders

(1) a score of 0 indicates the lowest performance among all

countries in the sample, whereas 1 indicates the frontier of

best practice.

Source:

European Innovation Scoreboard (2016)

There is an increasing dispersion of public

resources supporting innovation.

Overall public

support for innovation doubled over 15 years to

0.5 % of GDP in 2014, and the number of public

schemes supporting innovation has followed a

similar trend, increasing from 30 in 2000 to 62 in

2015 (Pisani-Ferry, J.

et al.,

2016). Over the same

period, the CIR was multiplied by more than 9,

suggesting an important dispersion of remaining

resources for other public support schemes.

Regions also promote their own initiatives, coming

on top of the state-supported ones.

The rising number of publicly-supported

structures are challenging for overall

consistency and coordination.

Many structures to

support innovation policy have been created in

recent years. To the pre-existing competitiveness

clusters (pôles

de compétitivité),

and Carnot

Institutes, the Investment for the Future

programme

(Programme

d'Investissements

d'Avenir)

has added the societies for technological

transfers (SATT) and institutes for technological

research (IRT). While these different structures

each have their own specificities, they contribute

48

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4.5. Sectoral policies

to blurring the readability of the system for firms

and overall coordination is a challenge (Ekeland

M., Landier and Tirole, 2016). Public support

schemes and structures are regularly evaluated but

it is not clear how those evaluations are used to

improve policies, at systemic level in particular.

Graph 4.5.2:

Efficiency of public funding of private R&D

2.5%

Total private R&D expenditure (% of GDP,

2015)

SE

2.0%

FI

DE

DK

1.5%

EU

1.0%

SI

AT

BE

FR

NL

UK

CZ

ES

BG IT

EE

HU

IE

0.5%

PT

the EU). However, it might be too scattered in

small entities to have a huge economic impact:

although Paris counted more start-ups than London

or Berlin in 2015 (Vilard, 2015), France only had 3

'unicorns', valued at EUR 6.7 bn, whereas

Germany had 4 and the UK 17, valued at EUR 18

and EUR 40.4 bn respectively (GP Bullhound,

2015). While France has put in place many

measures targeted at small innovative businesses

(such as the tax credit for innovation), sometimes

focussed on young innovative ones (such as the

Young Innovative Enterprises tax scheme), the

growth of small firms may still be hampered by the

general business environment (section 5.4).

Finally, financial capital resources to support

scaling-up may not be available in sufficient

quantity: venture capital as a share of GDP is twice

lower than in the UK or Sweden (Ausilloux V.;

Gouardo C., 2017).

Competition in service markets*

0.0%

0.0%

HR PL

MT

SK EL

LT

RO

LV

CY

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Government funding of business R&D, % of GDP

(2014 or latest available)

Source:

OECD, R&D Tax Incentive Indicators and Main

Science and Technology Indicators

Cooperation and transfers of competences and

results between public research and companies

is suboptimal, and weighs on the economic

output of the innovation system.

France lags

behind innovation leaders in terms of public-

private scientific co-publications – around 40 per

million inhabitants against over 50 in Germany

and above 60 in the Nordic countries (European

Commission, 2016d). On the other hand, private

funding of public R&D is also low by international

comparison (Coordination interministérielle de

l'innovation et du transfert, 2016). Generally

speaking, universities and other public research

organisations are weakly involved in the

innovation ecosystem.

Many innovative small firms are created in

France, but they have difficulties growing.

The

innovative landscape is dynamic, as attested by the

high employment in fast-growing firms in the

innovative sectors (

48

) (22 %, third highest rate in

(

48

) Innovative sectors are defined as those having high

knowledge intensity - share of employment with higher

education degree larger than 33% - and innovation

intensity.

Several service sectors of major economic

importance in France are characterised by low

competition compared to other service sectors

in France and to the same sectors in

neighbouring countries.

This is the case for retail,

accommodation and food services, health,

architectural

and

engineering

activities,

administrative and service support activities, and

real estate, according to a cross-country

Commission study that compared the market

performance of service sectors in France with that

of other peer economies (DE, IT, ES, UK) (

49

).

Competition in these sectors, as measured by

trends in market concentration and profit margins

(mark-ups), tends to be lower than the average

(

49

) European Commission (2017), forthcoming. This two-step

screening analysis aims at, first, assessing the market

performance of sectors within France taking into account

their economic importance, and, second, at comparing the

performance of the sectors identified with that of its

neighbours. The first step is based on the methodology

approved and used in the 2009 Product Market Review.

Market performance is captured by the level of competition

(market share of the four largest firms, total number of

firms, mark-ups), integration (trade openness and number

of foreign affiliates over total number of firms), and

innovation (labour quality, ICT contribution to value added

growth and labour productivity growth). Economic

importance is proxied by value added, household final

consumption and investment shares. The analysis covers

most of the French services sectors for the period 2010-

2014 (given data availability constraints) and combines

different databases (Eurostat, EU KLEMS, SPI, Orbis,

World Input Output database).

49

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4.5. Sectoral policies

level in Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK.

(Graph 4.5.3).

Graph 4.5.3:

Competition per service sector and country

1.5

1

0.5

0

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2

agents, lawyers and architects) (European

Commission, 2017b), for all professions, market

competition as proxied by the business churn (or

turnover) rate is significantly lower in France than

the EU average (

50

). With the exception of the

construction and travel agency sectors, business

churn rates in these regulated professions are also

low when compared to the overall French

economy. According to the same study, regulatory

restrictions on real estate agents, tourist guides and

accountants remain higher in France than in the

rest of the EU. By contrast, restrictions are lower

than the EU average for civil engineers, patent

agents and lawyers, while restrictions on architects

are close to the EU average.

Graph 4.5.4:

Regulatory restrictions, France and EU

Tourist guide

DE

ES

FR

IT

UK

Real estate agent

(1) The vertical axis denotes competition levels. Data reflect

2010-2014 averages.

Source:

European Commission

Patent agent

EU

Lawyer

FR

The relatively low level of competition of

French services is attributed to different sector-

specific factors.

In the sector of retail and, to a

lesser extent, in architectural and engineering

activities, newly-established companies and SMEs

appear to have difficulty growing. This is shown

by the lower survival rates compared to the

neighbouring countries (while the birth and churn

rates are relatively higher), and the significantly

wider gap between SMEs and larger firms in terms

of labour productivity growth. In health and in

accommodation and food services, barriers to entry

appear to play a role given the lower churn rates

and higher survival rates of French firms. Finally,

although legal and accounting services are more

dynamic overall in France compared to Italy,

Germany and the UK, mark-ups are higher and

labour productivity growth for small firms is lower

in France, implying the need to improve the

market performance of these business services,

notably given their stronger linkages with other

economic sectors in France.

Market competition in regulated professions

tends to be lower in France than in the EU

generally.

According to a Commission assessment

which covered seven regulated professions across

all 28 EU Member States (real estate agents,

tourist guides, accountants, civil engineers, patent

Civil engineer

Architect

Accountant

0

1

2

3

4

(1) For the profession of civil engineer the indicator for

France measures the restrictiveness to carry the protected

title

Source:

European Commission

A number of legal professions are being

reformed.

The Growth, Activity and Equal

Economic Opportunities Act (the ‘Macron law’) of

6 August 2015 aimed to improve competition in a

number of services sectors with a particular focus

on the legal professions. Among other things, the

law lifted restrictions applied to legal corporate

forms for a substantial number of legal

professions (

51

). It also loosened ownership rules

and joint practices for certain legal professions but

also for accountants, architects and surveyors. For

notaries, the law reviewed tariffs and established

247 free set-up zones, which could allow 1 650

additional notaries to set-up offices during the next

(

50

) The business churn rate is the ratio of the sum of newly

established and closed enterprises to the total number of

enterprises. There are no data available for patent agent

related activities.

(

51

) Lawyers, lawyers before the supreme courts, notaries, court

bailiffs, legal auctioneers, insolvency practitioners, and

court appointed receivers.

50

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4.5. Sectoral policies

two years, although a decree adopted in November

2016 allowed established notaries operating in

professional civil partnerships from now on to

open several offices. (

52

) Some of the 1 650

openings may be therefore occupied by existing

notaries.

Access to professions and services in the

healthcare sector is not optimal.

While the

Healthcare Act of 26 January 2016 (Loi

Santé)

allowed

inter alia

for an extension of the remit of

certain professions that are restricted by law (such

as midwives, and medical and dental assistants), it

created or extended reserved activities for others

(such as orthoptists and opticians). The overall

impact of the law on health professions is therefore

to be seen. The regulatory framework for home-

care services was also reformed through the law of

28 December 2015 on the ageing society.

However, the role of local authorities will be

crucial to ensuring full implementation of the new

common regime in order to prevent any

discrimination between existing and newly

authorised providers. Meanwhile, the quota on

medical students (the so-called

numerus clausus)

has been increased by 11 % for 2017, with 478

additional places, 131 of them targeting regions

where there are fewer doctors.

A number of passenger transport services are

currently being reformed.

The Macron law

established a regulator for all land transport

(ARAFER) and opened intercity domestic coach

services to competition, which, combined with car-

sharing services, has increased the range of long-

distance transport services in France. According to

ARAFER, as of 30 September 2016, 2050 direct

jobs had been created and about 5.3 million

passengers had been transported since the opening

of the market in August 2015 (

53

). There are about

1 310 commercial routes serving 208 French towns

outside of a public initiative. The new Public

Service Obligation Regulation under the fourth

European railway package is expected to increase

competition in the domestic rail passenger market

and improve the quality of services. The

government and the association of French regions

are considering setting up a legal framework (loi

d'expérimentation) to allow regional authorities to

(

52

) Decree 2016-1509 of 9 November 2016.

(

53

) ARAFER, Analyse du marché libéralisé des services

interurbains par autocar, Bilan du 3

e

trimestre 2016

award public service contracts on a competitive

basis for certain regional lines or sub-networks as

from 2019. On the other hand, there is no

indication that France plans to review the legal

monopoly of the SNCF for regional passenger rail

transport before the end of the transition period in

2023.

The taxi and private hire vehicle sectors are still

characterised by restrictions.

Only a small

number of new licences for taxis are issued every

about 10 years, while the private hire vehicle

sector, which pertains to the market of pre-booked

rides, has grown rapidly since the relaxation of

market entry rules in 2009. Nevertheless,

following the adoption of sectorial legislation over

the last three years, the operation of private hire

vehicles is still subject to restrictions, such as the

obligation to return to business premises after each

ride unless the next ride is already booked. Among

other things and in addition to the Thévenoud law

of 2014 (

54

), a law affecting taxis and private hire

vehicles was adopted on 29 December 2016 (

55

). It

includes a revision of certain provisions applicable

to these two sectors that aims to make the use of

digital platforms more widespread, as well as some

modifications concerning the provision of

transport services. While the impact of the law will

also depend on its implementation, it imposes

some requirements which may limit the provision

of reservation intermediation and transport

services.

France is engaged in establishing the regulatory

framework for collaborative economy activities

introducing new requirements for collaborative

platforms and related service providers.

French

consumers are particularly keen to use

collaborative economy services. (

56

) These

activities may have a significant potential for

growth and innovation.(

57

) France is a leader as

regards start-up creation with more than 50

collaborative economy organisations currently

(

54

) Loi n° 2014-1104 du 1

er

octobre 2014 relative aux taxis et

aux voitures de transport avec chauffeur.

55

( ) Loi relative à la régulation, à la responsabilisation et à la

simplification dans le secteur du transport public particulier

de personnes (Loi

Grandguillaume).

56

) Eurobarometer 2016.

(

57

) Together with the US, France is one of the world leaders,

in terms of size and variety of collaborative economy

activities (Pipame, 2015, p. 16).

51

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4.5. Sectoral policies

founded in France (

58

).At the same time, France is

engaged in establishing a specific regulatory

framework for collaborative platforms and related

service providers. (

59

) The rules proposed often

increase the obligations and liability of

collaborative economy actors, in particular

collaborative platforms, with regard to the services

offered by related providers.

Energy policy

Energy sector reforms have aimed to liberalise

wholesale and retail markets.

By progressively

phasing out regulated prices for final consumers,

France can help decrease market concentration,

encourage competition in the energy sector and

provide incentives to private consumers in terms of

energy efficiency. In recent years, France has

progressively phased out regulated prices for large

commercial customers. Gas prices increased by

4 % and stood 2 % above the EU average in 2015.

Electricity wholesale prices in France remain well

below the EU average thanks to the low marginal

costs of nuclear power generation (4 % below the

EU average in 2015), although since 2008 this

price differential has narrowed substantially. These

prices remain higher than in Germany (by 22% in

2015). Meanwhile, real unit energy costs have

increased and are higher in France than in the EU,

reflecting not only the French industry mix and the

increase in real energy prices observed over the

past 10 years but also the slow improvements in

energy intensity in the manufacturing sector.

Undertaking new investments in generation on a

pure market basis is a challenge in the current

investment climate of low wholesale electricity

prices and energy demand.

(

58

) Pricewaterhouse Coopers for the European Commission

(2016), p. 8.

59

( ) The 2016 budget law and the related rectifying law

imposed information requirements on intermediary

platforms vis-à-vis services providers concerning their

social and fiscal obligations, and vis-à-vis the fiscal

administration concerning the amount of revenues paid to

the service providers; the ‘El-Khomri’ law provided for

certain rights for platform workers, for instance regarding

work accidents; the "loi

Lemaire"

regulated specific

aspects of the collaborative economy, in particular in the

accommodation sector; the 2017 draft law on financing of

social welfare obliged persons who are active in short-term

rental activities to declare themselves as self-employed and

hence pay social security contributions once they reach an

annual turnover threshold. These measures add to the

reform of taxis and vehicles with drivers.

France is making efforts to develop a more

integrated framework for addressing the 2020

climate and energy targets and other longer-

term objectives.

The renewable energy share in

2014 (14.3 %) is in line with the interim trajectory

of 14.1% for 2013/2014, but well below the 2014

target of 16 % set by the French National

Renewable Energy Plan Regarding energy

efficiency, the regulatory and tax measures

adopted in 2014 have not yet showed results.

Energy intensity in the transport, industry and

buildings sectors in France is below the EU

average and has been decreasing (-0.7 %/year)

over the last 10 years, although it remains above

the levels of Germany, Italy and the UK. However,

France would need to reduce its primary and final

energy consumption further to reach its ambitious

indicative national 2020 targets. Moreover,

following the adoption of the Energy Transition

Act on 17 August 2015, additional measures would

allow for more energy savings (e.g. in buildings)

and support investment in renewable energy in

France partly with a view to the objective of

reducing nuclear electricity's share to 50 % by

2025. As regards greenhouse gas emissions,

France shows good results in terms of emission

reductions in power generation, but results have

not yet materialised in agriculture, which

represents the second largest source of emissions,

but also in industry and transport.

Regional cooperation and interconnections have

improved.

Overall, France is well interconnected

with its neighbours. At 10.4 % in 2015, the

interconnection capacity for electricity stands

above the Energy Union 2020 target (10 %). In

gas, output capacity has doubled and entry

capacity has increased by 50 % in the last 10 years.

The upcoming liquefied natural gas terminal in

Dunkirk will also improve gas interconnection

with Belgium.

52

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4.5. Sectoral policies

Box 4.5.1:

Indebtedness of the State-owned network industries and implications for

investment

The reported net debts of some State-owned energy companies and of the railway network operator

are reaching high levels (

1

).

The net debt of the railway infrastructure manager (SNCF

Réseau)

rose to

EUR 39 billion by the end of 2015, more than doubling since the first railway reform in France in 1997, due

mainly to significant investment in high-speed lines and maintenance, and to operational inefficiencies. At

EUR 37 billion, the net debt of the French electric utility company EdF has also increased by a factor of 2.3

since 2007, in particular to support strong cross-border expansion of the company’s activity, but also to

support an ambitious investment programme and a sustained dividend policy. The net debt of AREVA, the

French nuclear energy company, was EUR 6.3 billion at the end of 2015.

This indebtedness comes at a time of challenging market developments and greater need for

productive investment.

The average age of the railway network is about 32 years in France against 17 in

Germany. The speed limit had to be reduced in 2015 for 600 km of railways due to safety reasons, bringing

the total distance of the network subject to speed limits due to ageing to 4 000 km. EdF is confronted with

structural changes in electricity markets, especially with a sharp fall in wholesale electricity prices in the

past 5 years in Europe. AREVA is facing a market downturn following the Fukushima nuclear accident and

a series of investment decisions with negative legal and economic implications. Coupled with the

companies’ high indebtedness, these adverse market developments accentuate the constraints on investment

in maintenance and growth.

The financial situation of these state-owned companies represents a challenge for financing the

necessary investments.

EdF is expected to invest about EUR 10-15 billion per year for the next 10 years

mostly across the EU to maintain, modernise and develop the company’s productive assets. In the case of

the SNCF

Réseau,

investment needs are projected at EUR 4-5 billion per year over the same period and

broadly involve projects to renovate and expand the existing railway network. Investment in AREVA’s new

core business on nuclear fuel cycle has fallen from an annual average of EUR 1.3 billion in the period 2012-

2014 to EUR 0.6 billion in 2015, reflecting the company’s ongoing restructuring. Investment is expected to

remain broadly at current levels for 2017-2020. Without healthy balance sheets these investment needs will

not be met or will face delays with consequences for other sectors of the economy.

The French State is responding with a mix of capital increases and structural reforms, but the plans

are subject to uncertainties and delays.

The key measures of the 2014 railway sector reform, in particular,

to manage SNCF

Réseau's

indebtedness are being finalised. The multi-annual performance contract with the

State was approved on 20 December 2016 by its Board of Directors, while ARAFER, the French transport

regulator issued its opinion on the implementing decree for the investment prudential rule on 7 December

2016. The State’s contribution to strengthening EdF will involve subscribing up to EUR 3 billion in a EUR 4

billion capital increase decided by EdF and the agreement to receive dividends for the fiscal years 2016 and

2017 in shares. Pushed by an unsustainable balance sheet and increasing global competition, AREVA has

started a complete restructuring of its activities. The restructuring plan, formally investigated and cleared by

the Commission under EU State aid rules, is a complex financing and industrial operation. Among other

things, it aims at refocusing the company’s core business on the nuclear fuel cycle by transferring these

activities to the New AREVA Holding (NewCo).

(

1

) The net debt (or net financial debt) corresponds to the liabilities and debts of a company minus its cash and other

similar liquid assets.

53

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

ANNEX A

Overview Table

Commitments

2016 Country-specific recommendations (CSRs)

CSR 1:

Ensure a durable correction of the excessive

deficit by 2017 by taking the required structural

measures and by using all windfall gains for deficit

and debt reduction. Specify the expenditure cuts

planned for the coming years and step up efforts to

increase the amount of savings generated by the

spending reviews, including on local government

spending, by the end of 2016. Reinforce independent

public policy evaluations in order to identify

efficiency gains across all sub-sectors of general

government.

France has made

limited progress

in

addressing CSR 1 (this overall assessment of

CSR 1 does not include an assessment of

compliance with the Stability and Growth

Pact):

Summary assessment (

60

)



Ensure a durable correction of the excessive

deficit by 2017 by taking the required structural

measures and by using all windfall gains for

deficit and debt reduction. Specify the

expenditure cuts planned for the coming years

and step up efforts to increase the amount of

savings generated by the spending reviews,

including on local government spending, by the

end of 2016.



Reinforce independent public policy evaluations

in order to identify efficiency gains across all sub-

sectors of general government.



The compliance assessment with the

Stability and Growth Pact will be included

in spring when final data for 2016 will be

available.



Limited progress

has been made in

reinforcing the identification of savings

and efficiency gains generated by the

spending reviews and public policy

evaluations. The savings made following

(

60

) The following categories are used to assess progress in implementing the 2016 country-specific recommendations:

No progress:

The Member State has not credibly announced or adopted any measure to address the CSR. Below a number of non-

exhaustive typical situations that could be covered under this, to be interpreted on a case by case basis taking into account

country-specific conditions:

• no legal, administrative, or budgetary measure has been announced in the National Reform Programme or in other official

communication to the national Parliament / relevant parliamentary committees, the European Commission, or announced in

public (e.g. in a press statement, information on government's website);

• no non-legislative act has been presented by the governing or legislator body;

• the Member State has taken initial steps in addressing the CSR, such as commissioning a study or setting up a study group to

analyse possible measures that would need to be taken (unless the CSR explicitly asks for orientations or exploratory actions),

while clearly-specified measure(s) to address the CSR has not been proposed.

Limited progress:

The Member State has:

• announced certain measures but these only address the CSR to a limited extent;

and/or

• presented legislative acts in the governing or legislator body but these have not been adopted yet and substantial non-legislative

further work is needed before the CSR will be implemented;

• presented non-legislative acts, yet with no further follow-up in terms of implementation which is needed to address the CSR.

Some progress:

The Member State has adopted measures that partly address the CSR;

and/or

the Member State has adopted measures that address the CSR, but a fair amount of work is still needed to fully address the CSR as

only a few of the adopted measures have been implemented. For instance: adopted by national parliament; by ministerial

decision; but no implementing decisions are in place.

Substantial progress:

The Member State has adopted measures that go a long way in addressing the CSR and most of which have

been implemented.

Full implementation:

The Member State has implemented all measures needed to address the CSR appropriately.

54

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

A. Overview Table

the spending reviews in the PLF 2017 total

EUR 400 million, which is a small

amount given the structural efforts

required. Also, the second wave of

spending reviews has not resulted in any

proposed savings. A number of further

public policy evaluations were launched

and a meta-evaluation is ongoing.

CSR 2:

Ensure that the labour cost reductions are

sustained and that minimum wage developments are

consistent with job creation and competitiveness.

Reform the labour law to provide more incentives for

employers to hire on open-ended contracts.

France has made

substantial progress

in

addressing CSR 2:



Ensure that the labour cost reductions are

sustained



and that minimum wage developments are

consistent with job creation and competitiveness.



Substantial progress

has been made in

ensuring that labour cost reductions are

sustained. The second phase of reductions

in employers’ social security contributions

planned under the solidarity and

responsibility pact started in April 2016,

after the first phase introduced in 2015. In

addition, the government has increased the

tax credit for competitiveness and

employment (CICE) from 6 % to 7 %. The

2016

national

reform

programme

announced that the CICE would be

transformed into permanent reductions in

employers’ social security contributions by

2018, but no details are available at the

moment.



Some progress

has been made in ensuring

that changes in the minimum wage are

consistent with job creation and

competitiveness. The minimum wage

followed its indexation rule, leading to a

0.6 % increase on 1 January 2016. No

intent to review the indexation mechanism

has been expressed by the government.



Substantial progress

has been made in

reforming the labour law. The El Khomri

law on labour, social dialogue and

professional pathways was adopted in July

2016. However, its final effect will depend

on its full implementation and on social

partners taking ownership of the flexibility

the law offers. The reform of Labour



Reform the labour law to provide more incentives

for employers to hire on open-ended contracts.

55

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A. Overview Table

Courts introduced by the 2015 Macron law

was completed with the adoption, in

November 2016, of a decree reviewing the

indicative

ceilings

for

unjustified

individual dismissals.

CSR 3:

Improve the links between the education

sector and the labour market, in particular by

reforming apprenticeships and vocational training,

with emphasis on the low-skilled. By the end of

2016, take action to reform the unemployment

benefit system in order to bring the system back to

budgetary sustainability and to provide more

incentives to return to work.

France has made

addressing CSR 3:

limited

progress

in



Improve the links between the education sector

and the labour market, in particular by reforming

apprenticeships and vocational training, with

emphasis on the low-skilled.



Some progress

has been made in

improving the links between the education

sector and the labour market. The

implementation of the 2014 vocational

training

reform

is

ongoing.

Apprenticeship figures stopped decreasing

in 2015. The El Khomri labour law

introduces a new personal activity account

(CPA), entering into force in January 2017.

It mostly reinforces training rights for non-

qualified active workers.



By the end of 2016, take action to reform the

unemployment benefit system in order to bring

the system back to budgetary sustainability and to

provide more incentives to return to work.



No progress

has been made in reforming

the unemployment benefit system. Social

partners failed to agree on a new

unemployment benefit convention in July,

leading to an extension of the current 2014

convention. The timeline for adopting a

reform of the unemployment benefit

system is not clear yet.



France has made

some progress

in

addressing CSR 4:

CSR 4:

Remove barriers to activity in the services

sector, in particular in business services and regulated

professions. Take steps to simplify and improve the

efficiency of innovation policy schemes. By the end

of 2016, further reform the size-related criteria in

regulations that impede companies’ growth and

continue to simplify companies’ administrative, fiscal

and accounting rules by pursuing the simplification

programme.



Remove barriers to activity in the services sector,

in particular in business services and regulated



Some progress

has been made regarding

the removal of barriers to activity in the

regulated professions through sectoral

56

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A. Overview Table

professions.

legislation, notably the

Loi Macron

and the

Loi Santé.

France has adopted almost all

the secondary legislation needed to

implement provisions on liberalisation of

professions that were not directly

applicable. In other fields where reforms

of the service sector were adopted in 2015

(e.g. home-care services), the legal

framework was completed in 2016 and

awaits implementation by local authorities.

However, the ambition of measures to

increase

competition

in

regulated

professions is lower than initially

announced, mainly because of the

implementation measures (for instance, as

regards notaries). Some steps have also

been taken to introduce competition in

regional rail transport services for

passengers on an experimental basis.



Take steps to simplify and improve the efficiency

of innovation policy schemes.



Limited progress

has been made to

simplify and improve the efficiency of

innovation policy schemes. While no

recent measures have been adopted in this

area, clear action to systematically

evaluate innovation policy has been

promoted in recent year(s), in particular by

the National Commission for the

Evaluation of Innovation Policies together

with France Stratégie. These efforts

include the evaluation of individual

schemes (e.g. the CIR), and of the

efficiency of the innovation policy as a

whole. How these evaluations will be

translated into policy practice is still to be

seen.



By the end of 2016, further reform the size-

related criteria in regulations that impede

companies' growth



No progress

to reform the size-related

criteria in social and tax legislation has

been made, as no new measures have been

adopted in this area since the end of 2015.



and

continue

to

simplify

companies'

administrative, fiscal and accounting rules by

pursuing the simplification programme.



Some progress

has been made to simplify

companies’ administrative, fiscal and

accounting rules. The simplification

programme is ongoing and encompasses

57

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

A. Overview Table

new measures, but its implementation is

slow. The ‘Sapin II law’ makes it easier

for certain small companies to switch legal

status, while it facilitates business creation

by easing training requirements prior to

starting a business and by removing the

requirement for micro-entrepreneurs to

open a second bank account at least during

the first year of business.

CSR 5:

Take action to reduce the taxes on production

and the corporate income statutory rate while

broadening the tax base on consumption, in particular

as regards VAT. Remove inefficient tax

expenditures, remove taxes that are yielding little or

no revenue and adopt the withholding personal

income tax reform by the end of 2016.

France has made

addressing CSR 5:

limited

progress

in



Take action to reduce the taxes on production and

the corporate income statutory rate while

broadening the tax base on consumption, in

particular as regards VAT.



Limited progress

has been made in

reducing taxes on production and the

corporate income. The last tranche of the

turnover tax (C3S) has not been abolished

and still weighs on 20 000 businesses. The

statutory rate of corporate income tax will

only be reduced to 28 % in 2017 for SMEs

up to EUR 75 000 of profits. The objective

of setting this rate at 28 % across the board

by 2020 still stands. No progress on

broadening the tax base on consumption,

as the 2017 finance law does not remove

or limit the use of reduced rates on VAT.



Remove inefficient tax expenditures, remove

taxes that are yielding little or no revenue and

adopt the withholding personal income tax reform

by the end of 2016.



Some progress

has been made in

modernising the tax system. The

withholding tax reform for personal

income tax has been adopted by

Parliament and will be introduced by 2018.

However, tax expenditures keep increasing

in number and in value and have exceeded

the ceiling set in the 2014-2019

multiannual budgetary framework. In

2017, 14 new tax expenditures will be

introduced while only 4 are to be

suppressed and 5 come to an end. The

removal of taxes yielding little or no

revenue is progressing at a very slow pace.

58

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A. Overview Table

Europe 2020 (national targets and progress)

Employment rate (20-64):

75 %.

The employment rate for workers aged 20-64

was 69.5 % in 2015, a 0.2 pps. rise since 2014.

This rise continued in the first half of 2016,

with a 70.5 % employment rate in

metropolitan France in the second quarter.

Signs of improvement in job creation have

been seen since the second half of 2015.

Should this trend accelerate they could

contribute to strengthening the employment

rate. However, the 75 % target remains out of

reach at this stage and could require further

job-rich economic impetus.

R&D:

3.0 % of GDP.

Although there has been some progress in

recent years, France is not on track to meet its

target of spending 3% GDP on R&D by 2020.

R&D intensity in 2015 was at 2.23 %, up from

2.02 % in 2007, with an average annual

growth rate of 1.6 % in the period 2007-2015.

- Public R&D intensity has been fairly stable

over time, slightly decreasing to 0.74% GDP

in 2015 from 0.77% in 2010.

- Private R&D intensity has seen a slow but

steady increase since 2008, and it stood at

1.45 % GDP in 2015.

Greenhouse gas emissions:

-14 %, compared to 2005 emissions in the sectors not

covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

Based on the latest national projections and

taking into account existing measures, non-

ETS emissions will fall by 18 % between

2005 and 2020. The -14 % target is thus

expected to be met, by a margin of less than

five percentage points.

The preliminary estimates show the change in

non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions between

2005 and 2014 was -17 %. The 2014 target for

non-ETS emissions was achieved.

Renewable energy:

23 %, with a share of renewable energy in all modes

of transport equal to 10 %.

With a renewable energy share of 14.3 % in

2014, which is slightly above its indicative

interim target of 14.1 % for 2013/2014, France

could reach its target for 2020 provided it taps

into its renewable energy potential.

However, the renewable energy share remains

below the 16% target set in its National

59

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A. Overview Table

Renewable Energy Plan. Increased efforts are

therefore needed, in particular in the heating

and cooling sector and in electricity.

Renewable energy developments will also

need to be significant in the medium term to

comply with the ambitious objectives of the

Energy Transition Act.

Energy efficiency:

219.9 Mtoe in primary energy consumption and

131.4 Mtoe in final energy consumption.

France increased its primary energy

consumption from 234.76 Mtoe in 2014 to

239.45 Mtoe in 2015. Final energy

consumption also increased from 140.51 Mtoe

in 2014 to 144.3 Mtoe in 2015. Although

France has reduced the gap towards its

indicative national 2020 targets, it would need

to reduce its primary and final energy

consumption further in order to reach these

targets.

The French early school leaving rate increased

slightly from 9.0 % in 2014 to 9.2 % in 2015,

remaining under the Europe 2020 target.

Despite an early school leaving rate below the

EU average, significant regional disparities

remain. There are still too many young people,

mainly among those with an immigrant

background, who leave education with at most

a lower secondary level diploma, while the

labour market prospects of this group have

significantly deteriorated.

Tertiary education:

50 % of the population aged 17-33 years old.

The French tertiary education attainment rate

for the population aged 30-34 years was 45%

in 2015 with women outperforming men

(49.6 % against 40.3 %).

The percentage of the total population at risk

of poverty or social exclusion fell significantly

decrease between 2014 and 2015, from 18.5 %

to 17.7 %, which also led to a fall in the

number of people at risk of poverty or social

exclusion standing to 11 045, just below the

2008 reference figure.

As for other Member States, the 2020

objective still remains out of reach.

Early school leaving:

9.5 %.

Target for reducing the number of people at risk of

poverty or social exclusion:

- 1 900 000 in cumulative terms since 2008.

60

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ANNEX B

MIP Scoreboard

Table B.1:

The MIP scoreboard for France

Thresholds

Current account balance,

(% of GDP)

3 year average

-4%/6%

-35%

2010

-0.9

2011

-0.9

2012

-1.0

2013

-1.0

2014

-1.1

2015

-0.7

Net international investment position (% of GDP)

-9.3

-8.7

-12.8

-16.6

-16.9

-16.4

Real effective exchange

External imbalances rate - 42 trading partners,

and competitiveness HICP deflator

Export market share - %

of world exports

Nominal unit labour cost

index (2010=100)

3 years % change

±5% & ±11%

-2.2

-4.4

-7.8

-2.3

-1.3

-2.7

5 years % change

-6%

-17.2

-15.1

-18.0

-14.3

-14.1

-5.4

3 years % change

9% & 12%

7.5

5.5

4.4

4.6

4.6p

2.5p

Deflated house prices (% y-o-y change)

6%

3.6

3.9

-1.9

-2.6

-1.7

-1.3

Private sector credit flow as % of GDP, consolidated

14%

4.6

6.4

4.4

2.1

3.0

4.4

Internal imbalances

Private sector debt as % of GDP, consolidated

General government sector debt as % of GDP

Unemployment rate

3 year average

133%

60%

10%

16.5%

131.8

135.3

138.5

137.7

142.4

144.3

81.6

85.2

89.5

92.3

95.3

96.2

8.6

9.2

9.4

9.8

10.1

10.3

Total financial sector liabilities (% y-o-y change)

3.3

6.7

1.2

0.4

4.2

1.8

Activity rate - % of total population aged 15-64 (3 years

change in p.p)

-0.2%

0.6

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.3

0.8

New employment

indicators

Long-term unemployment rate - % of active population

aged 15-74 (3 years change in p.p)

0.5%

0.5

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.6

Youth unemployment rate - % of active population aged

15-24 (3 years change in p.p)

2%

3.8

3.7

0.8

1.6

1.6

0.3

(1) Figures highlighted are those falling outside the threshold established in the European Commission's Alert Mechanism

Report. For REER and ULC, the first threshold applies to euro area Member States.

Flags: b: break in time series. p: provisional.

Source:

European Commission

61

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ANNEX C

Standard Tables

Table C.1:

Financial market indicators

Total assets of the banking sector (% of GDP)

Share of assets of the five largest banks (% of total assets)

Foreign ownership of banking system (% of total assets)

1)

Financial soundness indicators:

- non-performing loans (% of total loans)

- capital adequacy ratio (%)

- return on equity (%)

2)

Bank loans to the private sector (year-on-year % change)

Lending for house purchase (year-on-year % change)

Loan to deposit ratio

Central Bank liquidity as % of liabilities

Private debt (% of GDP)

Gross external debt (% of GDP)

1)

- public

- private

Long-term interest rate spread versus Bund (basis points)*

Credit default swap spreads for sovereign securities (5-year)*

2011

407.8

48.3

9.6

4.6

12.2

5.6

2.4

6.1

113.4

4.4

135.3

50.5

52.6

71.2

94.9

2012

387.0

44.6

10.4

4.5

14.0

3.4

2.0

2.8

111.2

4.6

138.5

54.6

51.7

104.2

85.7

2013

372.6

46.7

8.3

4.6

15.0

6.0

0.9

3.6

107.8

2.8

137.7

57.2

49.7

63.4

38.9

2014

382.1

47.6

8.5

3.6

15.2

4.4

0.5

-2.8

106.7

2.3

142.4

62.7

53.0

50.3

31.0

2015

373.7

47.2

7.4

3.5

16.4

6.8

2.0

3.2

102.7

2.3

144.3

60.8

54.6

34.7

24.4

2016

390.5

-

-

3.4

16.7

3.7

4.7

4.6

104.2

1.8

-

62.7

55.2

36.5

22.7

(1) Latest data Q2 2016.

(2) Quarterly values are not annualised.

* Measured in basis points.

Source:

European Commission (long-term interest rates); World Bank (gross external debt); Eurostat (private debt); ECB (all

other indicators).

62

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C. Standard Tables

Table C.2:

Labour market and social indicators

2011

2012

69.4

0.3

65.1

73.9

44.5

:

15.2

10.9

9.8

3.7

24.4

12.5

11.8

2013

69.5

0.3

65.5

73.7

45.6

:

15.3

11.1

10.3

4.0

24.9

11.2

9.7

2014

69.3

0.5

65.6

73.2

46.9

18.6

15.3

7.9

10.3

4.2

24.2

11.4

9.0

2015

69.5

0.5

66.0

73.2

48.7

18.4

16.0

10.9

10.4

4.3

24.7

12.0

9.2

2016

4

Employment rate

(% of population aged 20-64)

Employment growth

(% change from previous year)

Employment rate of women

(% of female population aged 20-64)

Employment rate of men

(% of male population aged 20-64)

Employment rate of older workers

(% of population aged 55-64)

Part-time employment (% of total employment,

aged 15-64)

Fixed-term employment (% of employees with a fixed term

contract, aged 15-64)

Transitions from temporary to permanent employment

Unemployment rate

1

(% active population,

age group 15-74)

Long-term unemployment rate

2

(% of labour force)

Youth unemployment rate

(% active population aged 15-24)

Youth NEET

3

rate (% of population aged 15-24)

Early leavers from education and training (% of pop. aged 18-24

with at most lower sec. educ. and not in further education or

training)

Tertiary educational attainment (% of population aged 30-34

having successfully completed tertiary education)

Formal childcare (30 hours or over; % of population aged less

than 3 years)

69.2

0.8

64.7

74.0

41.4

:

15.3

11.6

9.2

3.6

22.7

12.3

12.3

70.0

0.7

66.4

73.8

49.7

18.3

16.2

:

10.1

4.3

24.9

:

:

43.1

43.3

44.0

43.7

45.0

:

26.0

23.0

26.0

26.0

:

:

(1) The unemployed persons are all those who were not employed but had actively sought work and were ready to begin

working immediately or within 2 weeks.

(2) Long-term unemployed are people who have been unemployed for at least 12 months.

(3) Not in education employment or training.

(4) Average of first three quarters of 2016. Data for total unemployment and youth unemployment rates are seasonally

adjusted.

Source:

European Commission (EU Labour Force Survey)

63

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C. Standard Tables

Table C.3:

Labour market indicators (cont.)

Expenditure on social protection benefits (% of GDP)

Sickness/healthcare

Disability

Old age and survivors

Family/children

Unemployment

Housing

Social exclusion n.e.c.

Total

of which: means-tested benefits

Social inclusion indicators

People at risk of poverty or social exclusion

(% of total population)

1

2010

8.9

2.0

13.9

2.5

1.9

0.8

0.9

30.9

3.6

2010

19.2

22.9

13.3

5.8

4

2011

8.8

2.0

14.0

2.5

1.9

0.8

0.9

30.8

3.5

2011

19.3

23.0

14.0

5.2

9.4

7.6

43.3

11238

2.0

4.6

49.4

30.8

2012

9.0

2.1

14.3

2.5

2.0

0.8

0.9

31.5

3.6

2012

19.1

23.2

14.1

5.3

8.4

8.0

40.8

11321

0.6

4.5

49.2

30.5

2013

9.0

2.1

14.5

2.5

2.0

0.8

0.9

31.9

3.7

2013

18.1

20.8

13.7

4.9

8.1

7.8

43.9

11248

0.4

4.5

49.0

30.1

2014

9.2

2.1

14.6

2.5

2.0

0.8

0.9

32.2

3.7

2014

18.5

21.6

13.3

4.8

9.6

8.0

44.6

11283

0.8

4.3

48.4

29.2

2015

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

:

2015

17.7

21.2

13.6

4.5

8.6

7.5

43.1

11330

1.5

4.3

:

:

Children at risk of poverty or social exclusion

(% of people aged 0-17)

At-risk-of-poverty rate

2

(% of total population)

Severe material deprivation rate (% of total population)

Proportion of people living in low work intensity households (% of

people aged 0-59)

In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate (% of persons employed)

Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on reducing poverty

Poverty thresholds, expressed in national currency at constant prices

5

Gross disposable income (households; growth %)

Inequality of income distribution (S80/S20 income quintile share ratio)

GINI coefficient before taxes and transfers

GINI coefficient after taxes and transfers

3

9.9

6.5

46.6

11414

2.4

4.4

48.6

29.8

(1) People at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE): individuals who are at risk of poverty and/or suffering from severe

material deprivation and/or living in households with zero or very low work intensity.

(2) At-risk-of-poverty rate: proportion of people with an equivalised disposable income below 60 % of the national equivalised

median income.

(3) Proportion of people who experience at least four of the following forms of deprivation: not being able to afford to i) pay

their rent or utility bills, ii) keep their home adequately warm, iii) face unexpected expenses, iv) eat meat, fish or a protein

equivalent every second day, v) enjoy a week of holiday away from home once a year, vi) have a car, vii) have a washing

machine, viii) have a colour TV, or ix) have a telephone.

(4) People living in households with very low work intensity: proportion of people aged 0-59 living in households where the

adults (excluding dependent children) worked less than 20 % of their total work-time potential in the previous 12 months.

(5) For EE, CY, MT, SI and SK, thresholds in nominal values in euros; harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) = 100 in 2006

(2007 survey refers to 2006 incomes)

Source:

For expenditure for social protection benefits ESSPROS; for social inclusion EU-SILC

64

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C. Standard Tables

Table C.4:

Product market performance and policy indicators

Performance indicators

Labour productivity (real, per person employed, year-on-year %

change)

Labour productivity in industry

Labour productivity in construction

Labour productivity in market services

Unit labour costs (ULC) (whole economy, year-on-year % change)

ULC in industry

ULC in construction

ULC in market services

Business environment

Time needed to enforce contracts

1

(days)

Time needed to start a business

1

(days)

Outcome of applications by SMEs for bank loans

Research and innovation

R&D intensity

Total public expenditure on education as % of GDP, for all levels of

education combined

Number of science & technology people employed as % of total

employment

Population having completed tertiary education

3

Young people with upper secondary education

Trade balance of high technology products as % of GDP

Product and service markets and competition

5

OECD product market regulation (PMR) , overall

OECD PMR

5

, retail

OECD PMR , professional services

OECD PMR , network industries

5

6

5

4

2

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

4.27

-1.46

1.48

-0.93

2.39

0.63

2010

390.0

6.5

0.54

2010

2.18

5.86

43

26

83

0.60

3.02

-1.94

1.68

-0.82

3.99

-0.27

2011

390.0

6.5

0.46

2011

2.19

5.68

46

27

84

0.42

1.47

-4.75

0.19

1.11

5.85

1.75

2012

390.0

6.5

0.59

2012

2.23

5.68

47

28

84

0.68

2.87

2.29

1.13

-0.31

0.91

0.87

2013

395.0

6.5

0.60

2013

2.24

na

47

29

86

0.76

2003

na

3.76

2.20

3.37

0.45

-0.93

0.94

0.68

1.08

0.45

2014

395.0

4.5

0.53

2014

2.24

na

49

30

88

0.80

2008

1.52

3.80

2.45

2.77

3.08

-0.97

0.21

-2.09

0.21

0.50

2015

395.0

4.0

0.51

2015

2.23

na

49

30

87

0.95

2013

1.47

2.64

2.34

2.51

1 The methodologies, including the assumptions, for this indicator are shown in detail at:

http://www.doingbusiness.org/methodology.

2 Average of the answer to question Q7B_a. "[Bank loan]: If you applied and tried to negotiate for this type of financing over

the past six months, what was the outcome?". Answers were codified as follows: zero if received everything, one if received

most of it, two if only received a limited part of it, three if refused or rejected and treated as missing values if the application is

still pending or if the outcome is not known.

3 Percentage population aged 15-64 having completed tertiary education.

4 Percentage population aged 20-24 having attained at least upper secondary education.

5 Index: 0 = not regulated; 6 = most regulated. The methodologies of the OECD product market regulation indicators are

shown in detail at: http://www.oecd.org/competition/reform/indicatorsofproductmarketregulationhomepage.htm

6 Aggregate OECD indicators of regulation in energy, transport and communications.

Source:

European Commission; World Bank — Doing Business (for enforcing contracts and time to start a business); OECD (for

the product market regulation indicators); SAFE (for outcome of SMEs' applications for bank loans).

65

kom (2017) 0090 - Ingen titel

C. Standard Tables

Table C.5:

Green growth

Green growth performance

Macroeconomic

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity

Resource intensity (reciprocal of resource productivity)

Waste intensity

Energy balance of trade

Weighting of energy in HICP

Difference between energy price change and inflation

Real unit of energy cost

Ratio of environmental taxes to labour taxes

Environmental taxes

Sectoral

Industry energy intensity

Real unit energy cost for manufacturing industry excl.

refining

Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy

Electricity prices for medium-sized industrial users

Gas prices for medium-sized industrial users

Public R&D for energy

Public R&D for environmental protection

Municipal waste recycling rate

Share of GHG emissions covered by ETS*

Transport energy intensity

Transport carbon intensity

Security of energy supply

Energy import dependency

Aggregated supplier concentration index

Diversification of energy mix

kgoe / €

kg / €

kg / €

kg / €

% GDP

%

%

% of value

added

ratio

% GDP

kgoe / €

% of value

added

% GDP

€ / kWh

€ / kWh

% GDP

% GDP

%

%

kgoe / €

kg / €

%

HHI

HHI

2010

0.13

0.28

0.43

0.19

-2.4

8.21

4.9

9.6

0.08

1.9

0.12

14.3

6.69

0.07

0.03

0.05

0.02

34.9

25.1

0.63

1.70

49.0

7.8

0.30

2011

0.13

0.26

0.43

-

-3.0

9.29

8.0

10.8

0.08

1.9

0.11

16.3

6.74

0.08

0.04

0.05

0.01

36.9

24.3

0.61

1.66

48.8

7.4

0.32

2012

0.13

0.26

0.42

0.18

-3.3

9.93

3.3

11.2

0.08

2.0

0.11

16.3

6.79

0.09

0.04

0.05

0.01

37.8

23.7

0.60

1.61

48.3

7.9

0.31

2013

0.13

0.26

0.41

-

-3.1

9.45

2.9

10.9

0.08

2.0

0.12

15.9

6.95

0.09

0.04

0.05

0.01

38.6

23.8

0.61

1.64

48.1

8.6

0.30

2014

0.12

0.24

0.40

0.17

-2.5

9.85

1.3

10.9

0.08

2.0

0.11

16.0

6.90

0.10

0.04

0.04

0.01

39.2

22.1

0.62

1.65

46.1

9.0

0.33

2015

0.12

-

0.39

-

-

9.41

-0.7

-

-

-

0.11

-

6.99

0.10

0.04

0.05

0.02

39.5

21.2

0.62

-

46.0

-

-

All macro intensity indicators are expressed as a ratio of a physical quantity to GDP (in 2005 prices)

Energy intensity: gross inland energy consumption (in kgoe) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions (in kg CO2 equivalents) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Resource intensity: domestic material consumption (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Waste intensity: waste (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Energy balance of trade: the balance of energy exports and imports, expressed as % of GDP

Weighting of energy in HICP: the proportion of ‘energy’ items in the consumption basket used for the construction of the HICP

Difference between energy price change and inflation: energy component of HICP, and total HICP inflation (annual %

change)

Real unit energy cost: real energy costs as a percentage of total value added for the economy

Environmental taxes over labour taxes and GDP: from European Commission’s database, ‘Taxation trends in the European

Union’

Industry energy intensity: final energy consumption of industry (in kgoe) divided by gross value added of industry (in 2005 EUR)

Real unit energy costs for manufacturing industry excluding refining: real costs as a percentage of value added for

manufacturing sectors

Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy: share of gross value added of the energy-intensive industries in GDP

Electricity and gas prices for medium-sized industrial users: consumption band 500-20 00MWh and 10 000-100 000 GJ; figures

excl. VAT.

Recycling rate of municipal waste: ratio of recycled and composted municipal waste to total municipal waste

Public R&D for energy or for the environment: government spending on R&D for these categories as % of GDP

Proportion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions covered by EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) (excluding aviation): based on

greenhouse gas emissions (excl land use, land use change and forestry) as reported by Member States to the European

Environment Agency

Transport energy intensity: final energy consumption of transport activity (kgoe) divided by transport industry gross value

added (in 2005 EUR)

Transport carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions in transport activity divided by gross value added of the transport sector

Energy import dependency: net energy imports divided by gross inland energy consumption incl. consumption of

international bunker fuels

Aggregated supplier concentration index: covers oil, gas and coal. Smaller values indicate larger diversification and hence

lower risk.

Diversification of the energy mix: Herfindahl index over natural gas, total petrol products, nuclear heat, renewable energies

and solid fuels

* European Commission and European Environment Agency

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat) unless indicated otherwise

66

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