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Europaudvalget 2018
KOM (2018) 0120
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EUROPEAN

COMMISSION

Brussels, 7.3.2018

SWD(2018) 204 final

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

Country Report Germany 2018

Including an In-Depth Review on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic

imbalances

Accompanying the document

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE

EUROGROUP

2018 European Semester: Assessment of progress on structural reforms, prevention and

correction of macroeconomic imbalances, and results of in-depth reviews under

Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011

{COM(2018) 120 final}

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

CONTENTS

Executive summary

1. Economic situation and outlook

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

3. Summary of the main findings from the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure

in-depth review

4. Reform priorities

4.1. Public finances, fiscal frameworks and taxation*

4.2. Financial sector*

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

4.4. Beyond the aggregate: ageing, inequality and savings*

4.5. Investment

4.6. Sectoral policies

Annex A: Overview table

Annex B: Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure Scoreboard

Annex C: Standard tables

References

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1:

Table 2.1:

Table 3.1:

Table 4.2.1:

Table B.1:

Table C.1:

Table C.2:

Table C.3:

Table C.4:

Table C.5:

Table C.6:

Key economic and financial indicators – Germany

Summary table on 2017 CSR assessment

MIP assessment matrix – Germany

Financial soundness indicators, all banks in Germany

The MIP Scoreboard for Germany (AMR 2018)

Financial market indicators

Headline Social Scoreboard indicators

Labour market and education indicators

Social inclusion and health indicators

Product market performance and policy indicators

Green growth

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

LIST OF GRAPHS

Graph 1.1:

Graph 1.2:

Graph 1.3:

Graph 1.4:

Graph 1.5:

Graph 1.6:

Graph 1.7:

Graph 1.8:

Graph 1.9:

Graph 1.10:

Graph 2.1:

Graph 4.1.1:

Graph 4.1.2:

Graph 4.2.1:

Graph 4.2.2:

Graph 4.2.3:

Graph 4.3.1:

Graph 4.3.2:

Graph 4.3.3:

Graph 4.3.4:

Graph 4.4.1:

Graph 4.4.2:

Graph 4.5.1:

Graph 4.5.2:

Graph 4.5.3:

Graph 4.5.4:

Graph 4.5.5:

Graph 4.5.6:

Graph 4.5.7:

Graph 4.5.8:

Graph 4.6.1:

Graph 4.6.2:

Demand components of GDP growth

Contributions to headline inflation

Sectoral net lending

Determinants of household disposable income

Current account and component balances

Balance of goods by broad economic category

Current account balance and components of the financial account

Factors explaining the current account surplus

General government budget balance and gross debt

Tax wedge - 2016

Overall multiannual implementation of 2011-2017 CSRs to date

Government balance and trends in selected revenues and expenditures

Taxes by economic function

Mortgages and corporate loans in billion EUR and in % of GDP

Annual change of different household loan categories

Funding sources of non-financial corporations

Phillips curve in Germany: compensation growth and unemployment rate

Trends in labour costs and its components

Employment rate by citizenship

Gini coefficient and poverty risk

Dependency ratios (2036 population forecast) and savings rates of DE

Savings rates by age groups – measured in 2015

Capital stock

Gross fixed capital formation in the private sector

Potential growth and contributions

Productivity developments

Housing overvaluation gap

Gross fixed capital formation in the public sector

Net public investment by level of government

Net capital stock by type of activity

Business expenditure on R&D (BERD) performed by SMEs

Venture capital investment (market statistics) in 2016

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LIST OF BOXES

Box 2.1:

Box 3.1:

Box 4.3.1:

Box 4.3.2:

Box 4.5.1:

Box 4.6.1:

Tangible results delivered through EU support to structural change in Germany

Euro area spillovers

Monitoring performance in light of the European Pillar of Social Rights

Policy highlights: The introduction of the general minimum wage

Investment challenges and reforms in Germany

Collaborative economy

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Germany’s enduring economic upswing offers

an opportunity for policy action aimed at

fostering higher potential growth, which can

prepare the country for future challenges.

Boosting public and private investment, where

gaps have been clearly identified, can help

maintain the efficiency of the capital stock and

raise productivity to prepare for future challenges

such as new digital business models, low-emission

transport and decentralised (renewable) energy

production.

Better

involvement

the

underrepresented groups in the labour market can

help address the looming shortage of skilled labour

stemming from demographic change. Boosting

investment and expenditure in education, including

lifelong learning, and in research and development

are also key in raising long-term growth

potential.(

)

The German economy showed robust growth in

2015-2017, driven by domestic demand.

Real

GDP growth was at 1.9 % in 2016 and 2.2 % in

2017. In 2017, private consumption grew for the

second year running by 2 %. Underpinned by the

continued economic expansion, unemployment fell

to a record low of 3.6 % by the fourth quarter of

2017, despite the growing labour force.

Employment growth continued, with the

employment rate reaching 79.1 % in the third

quarter of 2017, as both demand for labour and the

labour supply increased. Despite record low

unemployment and high job vacancy rates, wage

growth remains moderate. The positive output gap

and high capacity utilisation are expected to spur

investment. Inflation rose from 0.4 % in 2016 to an

average of 1.7 % in 2017 on the back of rising

energy prices.

The budget balance continues to improve, while

government debt remains on a downward path.

In 2016, the government surplus reached 0.8 % of

(

) This report assesses Germany’s economy in the light of the

European Commission’s Annual Growth Survey published

on 22 November 2017. In the survey, the Commission calls

on EU Member States to implement reforms to make the

European economy more productive, resilient and

inclusive. In so doing, Member States should focus their

efforts on the three elements of the virtuous triangle of

economic policy - boosting investment, pursuing structural

reforms and ensuring responsible fiscal policies. At the

same time, the Commission published the Alert

Mechanism Report (AMR) that initiated the seventh round

of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure. The AMR

found that Germany warranted an in-depth review, which is

presented in this report.

GDP, higher than in 2015, rising further to a

record high of 1.2 % of GDP in 2017, partly due to

lower interest payments on public debt. The budget

is expected to remain in surplus in headline and

structural terms in 2018 and 2019 as well. The

gross debt-to-GDP ratio is set to fall further from

68.1 % in 2016 to below the 60 % Maastricht

threshold over the next couple of years, possibly

by 2019.

Given its economic importance and strong

integration in EU value chains, Germany is a

source of potentially significant spillovers to

other EU countries.

A further rise in domestic

demand, including through higher public

investment in R&D and education, would increase

Germany’s actual and potential growth. It would

also stimulate demand and GDP growth in other

EU countries, including those that need to bring

debt down.

Germany has made limited progress in

addressing

the

2017

country-specific

recommendations. Limited progress

has been

made towards achieving a sustainable upward

trend in public investment, including public

spending on education, research and innovation.

Some progress

has been made in addressing

capacity and planning constraints on infrastructure

investment. There has been

limited progress

towards stimulating competition in the business

services and regulated professions, reducing

disincentives to work for second earners and

helping them to move into standard employment,

promoting higher real wage growth, and reducing

the high tax wedge for low-wage earners.

progress

has been achieved in making the tax

system more efficient and conducive to

investment.

Regarding progress in reaching the national targets

under the Europe 2020 strategy, Germany is

performing well on the employment rate, early

school leaving and poverty, improving tertiary

education attainment, investment in research and

development (R&D), and increasing the share of

renewable energy. However, it is unlikely to reach

its national indicative energy efficiency and

climate targets by 2020.

Germany performs relatively well on the

indicators of the Social Scoreboard supporting

the European Pillar of Social Rights.

It has very

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

Executive summary

low unemployment but a large gender employment

gap. Strong social dialogue and a relatively

advanced welfare model underpin Germany's

competitive economy.

The main findings of the in-depth review set out in

this report, and the related policy challenges, are as

follows:



The current account surplus is expected to

edge down further in the future, but to

remain high.

Strong domestic demand is

expected to keep import growth above export

growth, further easing the current account

surplus. The domestic saving-investment

imbalance, which has been growing since

2008, may have reached a turning point in

2016. However, the factors keeping investment

low relative to savings remain in place.



Demographic change and rising income

inequality up to 2014 partly explain the rise

and persistence of the current account

surplus.

Rising income inequality, linked to

demographic and labour market changes, may

have constrained private consumption and

increased the trade balance. In addition,

population ageing and concerns about the

adequacy of future pension levels and old-age

poverty could explain a rise in domestic

savings. According to economic theory and

model estimates, the demographic transition is

currently pushing up the current account

surplus by a substantial amount, but should

lower savings in the long run.



Private investment has picked up, but

business investment remains subdued as a

proportion of GDP, suggesting that obstacles

to investment persist.

Housing seems to

account for most of the increase in private

investment, while investment in non-residential

construction is slow to pick up. Though

investment in machinery and equipment has

increased to pre-crisis levels, as a share of GDP

it remains subdued. On average, investment in

intangible assets, such as R&D, has grown in

importance. However, it is largely concentrated

in medium-high tech sectors and in larger

firms, while small and medium-sized

enterprises and the services sector in general

are tending to under-invest. This explains large

productivity gaps between manufacturing and

services, which are likely to dampen potential

growth.

Despite

favourable

financing

conditions, non-financial corporations remain

net lenders. Barriers to investment include

demographic trends resulting in shortages of

skilled labour, taxation and administrative

burden, regulatory restrictiveness in the

services sectors and the shortfall in very-high-

capacity broadband.



While public investment increased recently,

the public investment gap remains large,

particularly as regards investment in

infrastructure and education.

Real public

investment growth turned positive in 2015,

after showing negative growth rates in the

years before. This improvement reflects

government efforts to boost investment. The

accumulated investment backlog at municipal

level fell to some extent in 2016, but remains

large at an estimated 4 % of GDP. The biggest

shortfalls are in education, where the national

spending target has not been met, and in

infrastructure. While the Federal Government

and the

Länder

kept their construction

investment stable, such investment by

municipalities fell steadily, with negative net

investment also in 2017. Investment in public

infrastructure is still held back by capacity and

planning constraints at municipal level.

Measures to overcome these have yet to show

results. In addition, there is scope for

enhancing digital public services and

improving public procurement.



Germany is lagging behind on very-high-

capacity broadband deployment, and the

digital divide between urban and rural areas

remains a particular challenge.

Only a

comparatively small proportion of German

territory is covered by fibre-based access

networks. Instead, upgrading existing copper

cable networks continues to be the dominating

incumbent's preferred technological solution.

However, many services rely on very high

connectivity. Lack of such connectivity holds

back investment, especially by small and

medium-sized businesses, many of which are

located in semi-rural and rural areas.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

Executive summary



Germany's tax and social security systems

are not particularly progressive or

supportive of employment and private

investment.

There is a relatively strong

emphasis on more distortive direct taxes,

notably on labour income, while revenues from

consumption and environmental taxes are

lower. Household income and consumption are

restrained by the high tax wedge on labour,

especially for low earners. The statutory

corporate tax rate is among the EU's highest.

Taxes on inheritance and gifts allow large-scale

transfer of wealth from one generation to the

next and preserve the high wealth inequality.

Healthcare efficiency could be improved by

better

integrating

primary,

ambulatory

specialist and in-patient care and making better

use of eHealth.



The banking sector is not very profitable,

but the equity and leverage situation

remains acceptable.

Nationally aggregated

profitability seems low, and ongoing

consolidation is improving efficiency relatively

slowly. Still, capitalisation ratios are

satisfactory, and the non-performing loans'

ratio is low, in the context of a relatively small

loan stock, particularly for non-financial

corporations. While the housing market

continues to be buoyant, overall house price

developments are not causing macro or

financial stability risks. The venture capital

market remains less developed than that of

other international innovation leaders.



Wage growth remains moderate, despite

record low unemployment and high job

vacancy rates.

The German labour market is

performing well on aggregate, with strong

employment growth and low unemployment.

However, the prevalence of part-time work

especially among women, and a large low-

wage sector present structural challenges.

Moderate recent wage growth is partly

attributable to slow productivity increases in

services, weak inflation expectations, low

collective bargaining coverage in some sectors,

and a reduction in structural unemployment.



Despite growing skilled labour force

shortages, the labour market potential of

certain

groups

remains

underused.

Disincentives to work persist, particularly for

second earners and the low-waged; they

include the substantial tax wedge, tax rules, and

the lock-in effects of the mini-job earning

threshold. Long-term unemployment, though

falling, remains sizable. An ageing population

poses further challenges to the labour market,

social policy and education in the medium to

long term. Improvements in family and

education policies, adult learning and in the

integration of people with a migrant

background into education and employment

could reduce inactivity and in-work poverty,

improve social cohesion and potential growth

alike.



Germany has a solid social protection

system overall, but there are concerns about

the future.

In 2015, the rise in the risk of

poverty and inequality has halted and the

income position of low income households

improved. Nevertheless, future deterioration of

pension adequacy in the statutory first pillar is

expected to increase the risk of poverty in old

age, especially for low-wage earners or people

with atypical work and interrupted employment

history. The gender pension gap is one of the

highest in the EU. Social outcomes for

migrants and their children remain a concern.

Other key economic issues analysed in this report

which highlight particular challenges facing

Germany’s economy are as follows:



Germany's electricity networks are adapting

to renewables production at a slow rate, and

significant investment in transmission and

distribution grids is still lacking.

Substantial

delays in carrying out many projects have

incurred considerable costs to German and

European electricity networks and electricity

markets. The lack of north-south internal lines

strains the electricity trade with Germany's

neighbours, as domestic congestion tends to be

pushed to the borders. Moreover, there is scope

for higher energy efficiency in transport.



Progress on emissions reduction has been

slow.

Germany is expected to miss its Europe

2020 Effort Sharing Decision target for

greenhouse gas emissions. The transport sector

has been particularly slow to cut emissions of

both greenhouse gases and local air pollutants.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ECONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

in 2016. In addition, total factor productivity

growth has been strong, consistently exceeding the

euro area average (see ‘Labour market’ below and

Sections 4.3 and 4.5). Capital accumulation, on the

other hand, has made a relatively small

contribution to potential growth. In the medium to

long term, labour input is unlikely to grow as

strongly along the extensive margin. Therefore, to

sustain potential growth, it will be important to

enhance capital accumulation by stepping up

productive investment.

Investment

GDP growth

The German economy continued to grow

strongly in 2017.

Germany’s real GDP growth

rate was a solid 2.2 % driven by private

consumption and investment. Export growth

picked up amid a strengthening euro area recovery

while the strong domestic demand caused imports

to accelerate. On balance, foreign trade had a small

positive contribution to growth.

Economic sentiment continues to improve

across sectors, suggesting continued expansion

in the coming quarters.

Survey data show

expectations of improving orders, higher output

and greater demand. Capacity utilisation has

continued to increase, which bodes well for

investment. The strong labour market, favourable

world trade developments the expansion in the

euro area should help to sustain the enduring

upswing. Overall, real GDP growth is expected to

strengthen to 2.3% in 2018 and remain above 2%

in 2019 (see Graph 1.1).

Graph 1.1:

forecast

-2

-4

pps.

Demand components of GDP growth

The positive demand outlook and high capacity

utilisation are expected to boost investment.

Private investment in equipment has been

recovering since the soft patch of 2016; it has

grown strongly last year, returning to the pre-crisis

levels. Further increases are likely amid favourable

demand prospects, not least from the euro area and

the rest of the EU. Consistently rising capacity

utilisation should also boost the efforts to renew

and expand the capital stock. Housing investment

grew strongly in the first two quarters of 2017 and

is expected to continue growing, though more

slowly. This booming sector is sustained by ample

order book backlogs and a steady flow of building

permits.

Non-residential

construction

has

continued to stagnate to some extent, casting doubt

on firms' long-term expansion strategies. Public

investment in 2017 increased by around 5.1 %

nominally and 2.9 % in real terms posting robust

growth for a third year in a row (see Section 4.5).

Labour market

-6

Inventories

Investment

Gov. consumption

Net exports

Priv. consumption

Real GDP (y-o-y%)

(1)Note: GDP growth and contributions to annual growth

Source:

European Commission

Potential growth is benefiting from the

sustained rise in labour supply and total factor

productivity while capital accumulation is

lagging behind.

Potential GDP growth has

strengthened in recent years reaching around 2 %

in 2016 (see Graph 4.5.3). It was driven by

expanding labour supply on the back of improving

participation and recent high net migration. The

number of foreign nationals in the labour force

increased from 3.5 million in 2011 to 4.8 million

Employment growth continued, spurred by

increased labour demand and supply.

Employment grew by 1.3 % in 2016 and 1.5 % in

2017, and by the third quarter of 2017 the

employment rate climbed to 79.1% for those aged

20-64. This brought the unemployment rate for the

age group 15-74 down further to a new post-

unification low of 3.8 % in 2017. Youth

unemployment at 6.7% in 2017 was one of the

lowest in the EU. Despite population ageing, the

labour supply increased mainly driven by

increasing labour market participation of women,

older workers and incoming workers from other

EU countries.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

Although the labour market tightens and the

output gap closes, wages continue to grow at a

moderate pace.

Although nominal compensation

per employee increased by 2.4 % in 2017, slightly

above their growth rate of 2.2 % in 2016, real

compensation growth decelerated from 1.8 % to

0.7 %. Several factors have kept wage increases

moderate so far. These include increased labour

supply; relatively limited collective bargaining

coverage in some sectors; and a stronger role of

non-wage components in collective bargaining

(see Section 4.3).

The large proportion of part time work,

particularly among women, prevents the full

use of workers’ labour market potential.

Despite high employment rates for women (74.5 %

in 2016), the equivalent in full-time employment is

only 58.1 % as part-time employment remains

among the highest in the EU. Women with a

migrant background and women with caring

responsibilities are more often in part-time work.

The current arrangement of joint taxation of

income for married couples (Ehegattensplitting),

non-contributory health insurance coverage for

non-working spouses, and the high marginal tax

rates just above the earnings threshold of a mini

job, create disincentives to work more hours. This

lower labour market attachment is combined with

a large gender pay gap (22.0 % compared to an

EU-average of 16.3 % in 2015).

In addition, the labour market potential of

people with a migrant background is not being

fully used.

In the third quarter of 2017, the

employment rate of non-EU nationals (aged 20-64)

was 54.6 %, just slightly below the EU average for

non-EU nationals (58.0 %) but 27.2 pps. lower

than the rate for German nationals. Women with a

non-EU nationality had an employment rate of

45.4 % 32.9 pps. lower than for women of German

nationality.

Social developments

the share fell to 4.6 in 2016, owing to an

improvement in the incomes of poorer households.

This trend is believed to have continued in 2017.

The improvement reflects rising wages, which

have also reduced the amount of in-work poverty.

The share of income of the richest 20 % has fallen

slightly. This may reflect a slowing of the wage

premium on skills, as the incomes of the low and

medium-skilled rose faster in 2016 than those of

the highly skilled.

However, wealth inequality in Germany is high

in international comparison.

In 2014, the Gini

coefficient for net wealth in Germany at 0.76 was

the second highest in the euro area (whose Gini

coefficient, calculated on the basis of data from the

second wave of the ECB’s Household Finance and

Consumption Survey, was 0.69). (

) For Germany,

the P90/50 ratio was 7.7, meaning that a person

who fell just within the richest 10 % of the

population had roughly 8 times the wealth of a

person in the middle of the wealth distribution.

Like wealth as a whole, financial and real assets

were distributed unevenly.

Inequality of opportunity also remains a

concern.

While overall the risk of poverty has

begun to decline modestly (see Section 4.3 on

social policy), the poverty risk faced by the

children of low-skilled parents has continued to

rise reaching 64.7 % in 2016. PISA results also

showed a strong link between socioeconomic

status and educational performance, partly

explaining the underperformance of children with

a migrant background. (see Section 4.3).

Inflation

Income inequality has begun to decline

(see

Annex C). This reverses a decade-long trend of

increasing inequality of disposable income

distribution, which peaked in 2014 at close to the

EU average. The latest figures show a modest

reduction in the S80/S20 ratio, which measures the

income of the richest 20 % of households in

relation to that of the poorest 20 %. For Germany,

Inflation is expected to remain moderate.

HICP

picked up from 0.4 % in 2016 to an average of

1.7 % in 2017 on the back of rebounding energy

prices and related second round effects (see

Graph 1.2). Core inflation (excluding energy and

unprocessed food) has increased from just above

1 % over 2015-16, to 1.5 % in 2017 and is

expected to rise to 1.7 % over this year and next, in

the context of strong demand and higher wage

growth. Overall headline inflation dynamics are

(

) The high wealth Gini is partly explained by the fact that

pension entitlements are not included. Germany’s rather

well-developed pension system reduces the need to

accumulate private wealth (see Frick and Grabka, 2010).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

projected to be in line with the euro area’s and to

oscillate around 1.6 %. Dampened by the expected

stable energy prices, this moderate inflation should

support household purchasing power.

Graph 1.2:

3.0

2.5

Graph 1.3:

% of GDP

Sectoral net lending

Forecast

Contributions to headline inflation

y-o-y %

change

-2

-4

-6

-8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Households

General government

Financial corporations

Non-financial corporations

Surplus savings/current account balance

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

Source:

European Commission

10Q1

11Q1

12Q1

13Q1

14Q1

15Q1

16Q1

17Q1

Services

Processed food incl.alcohol, tobacco

Unprocessed food

Non-energy industrial goods

Energy

HICP all items

Source:

European Commission

Sectoral balances

The widening of domestic saving-investment

balance, reflected in the increasing current

account surplus, may have reached a turning

point in 2016.

Private borrowing increased further

in 2016 slightly above GDP growth and the rate of

net asset accumulation by the private sector

stabilised. Nominal corporate investment increased

in 2016, with a further significant rise in 2017,

while corporate savings are set to fall slightly as a

share of GDP. As a result, corporations, whose

indebtedness is among the lowest in the euro area,

contributed to the slight reduction in the savings

surplus. The household savings rate increased to

17.1 % in 2016, propped up by low consumer price

inflation, but is forecast to have declined to 16.6 %

in 2017, as consumer demand remained robust and

inflation rose. Still, the household savings rate will

likely remain the highest in the euro area (which

averages 12.3 %). After rebounding in 2016,

household investment is expected to have grown

strongly in 2017, lowering the net lending balance

further. A further fall in public sector indebtedness

is expected, thanks to the favourable

macroeconomic outlook (see ‘Public finances’

below).

However, the consumption share of GDP

remains relatively low, as the high household

saving rate is being sustained.

The GDP share of

labour income has increased since 2011, but so

have the shares of income tax and social security

deductions. The share of property income has been

falling as a result of less generous dividend pay-

outs by corporations and lower interest income.

The saving rate has nevertheless remained stable,

while consumption has declined in parallel with

household disposable income as a proportion of

GDP. Nonetheless, real consumption has actually

increased as purchasing power has been boosted

by low inflation. Even so, the consumption share

of GDP (53 % in 2016 and 2017) has remained

low from an historical perspective.

Graph 1.4:

Determinants of household disposable income

% of GDP

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Wages and salaries

Taxes and soc. contributions

Net property income

Disp. income

Consumption

Note: Cumulated change in pps of GDP since 2000

Source:

European Commission

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

External position

Graph 1.6:

Balance of goods by broad economic

category

The current account surplus has edged down

from a historically high level and is expected to

decline slowly in the coming years.

In 2016, it

fell to 8.2 % of GDP, from a peak of 8.5 % in

2015, while it stood at 7.8 % for the year ending in

November 2017. The trade surplus stayed largely

stable at 8.5 % in 2016, but fell to 8.2 % for the

year ending in November 2017. Between 2013 and

2016 cheaper energy and other commodity prices

drove the widening of the trade balance by 2 pps.

of GDP, but since then terms-of-trade effects have

gone into reverse. The trade balance is also

contracting in real terms. The export outlook is

expected to be favourable and to fuel German

exports. At the same time, strong domestic demand

is expected to keep import growth above export

growth and to further ease of the current account

surplus ratio. Nevertheless, the current account is

expected to remain above the MIP threshold of 6%

of GDP for a number of years.

Graph 1.5:

% of GDP

-1

-2

Capital goods

Pass. cars and motor fuels

TOTAL

Consumer goods

Intermediate goods

Note: four quarter moving average

Source:

European Commission

Current account and component balances

Forecast

% of GDP

-1

-3

The trends behind the widening trade balance

may have started reversing.

The balance of trade

in intermediate goods widened by 2 pps. of GDP in

the course of 2012-2016, largely in parallel with

the widening of the overall trade balance. Since

mid-2016, imports of intermediate goods have

become relatively more important, and the balance

has been coming down. In addition, net exports of

passenger cars peaked in 2015 and have been

declining since, as more foreign cars are making

their way onto the German market.

Graph 1.7:

Current account balance and components of

the financial account

-5

% of GDP

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Goods, EA

Goods, non-EA

Prim. income, EA

Services, EA

Sec. income, EA

Current account

Prim. income, non-EA

Services, non-EA

Sec. income, non-EA

-5

-10

-15

FDI

Portf. Inv. Liab.

Oth. Investment

Portf. Inv. Assets

Derivatives

Reserves

Note: four quarter moving average

Source:

Deutsche Bundesbank, European Commission

The current account surplus with respect to the

rest of the euro area stabilised at 2.4 % of GDP

in 2016-17.

Recovery in the euro area goes hand-

in-hand with stronger German exports and a

growing export ratio with respect to the region. At

the same time, the ratio of euro area imports to

Germany remains robust, although imports from

other regions are growing at a faster rate.

Note: twelve month moving average

Source:

Deutsche Bundesbank

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

In addition, there has been a shift in a

composition of the financial account.

Portfolio

investments, in particular in foreign debt

instruments, which typically are of a relatively

short-term and speculative nature, have been the

main foreign investment outlet, accounting for the

bulk of net capital exports. Following the 2009

financial crisis, German portfolio investment

abroad tended to significantly exceed portfolio

investment in the country by non-residents.

However, since mid-2015 German residents have

been scaling down portfolio investment. In

parallel, a wave of repatriation of German

securities has set in, from investors for whom the

safe haven motive for holding German government

bonds no longer counterbalances their low returns.

Thus, a significant part of the current account

surplus in recent years reflects disinvestment by

non-residents, rather than German capital exports

as it was the case in the past (Graph 1.7). This

disinvestment by non-residents has also been

related to the increased purchases of German

government bonds by the Bundesbank in the

context of ECB's Public Sector Purchase

Programme and has coincided with an increase of

Germany’s Target 2 surplus.

Nonetheless, the current account surplus

remains considerably above what fundamentals

suggest.

According to the Commission current

account 'norm' calculations, fundamental savings-

investment determinants currently suggest a

surplus of +2.5 pp, which is mostly due to ageing,

but also due to the manufacturing intensity of

German exports. (

) Yet most of the surplus and its

dynamics is explained by non-fundamental factors.

Private-sector deleveraging since 2000 explains a

large part of the surplus, along with the fiscal

stance, and an increasing net international

investment position (NIIP) giving rise to a sizeable

positive income balance. Overall, the sustained

current account surpluses have led to a NIIP

somewhat above what fundamentals suggest.

(

) The current account 'norm' benchmark is derived from

regressions capturing the main fundamental determinants

of the saving-investment balance (e.g. demographics,

resources), as well as policy factors and global financial

conditions. See also European Commission, 2017a.

Graph 1.8:

Factors explaining the current account surplus

% of GDP

-1

-3

-5

Residual

Credit/construction

Other policy factors

Demographics

Current account

Cycle

Struct. fiscal bal.

Global fin. markets / NIIP

Other fundamentals

Source:

European Commission

Public finances

The general government budget balance

continues to improve, while public debt

continues to fall.

In 2016, the headline surplus

reached 0.8 % of GDP, higher than in 2015, rising

further to a record high of 1.2 % of GDP in 2017.

The surplus would have been even higher (by

around 0.2 %), as it already included the

repayment in 2017 of a nuclear fuel tax ruled

invalid by the German Constitutional Court. From

its recent peak in 2010, with a government deficit

at 4.2 % of GDP, Germany has consistently

improved its government balance, turning it into a

surplus from 2014 on. What made this

improvement possible was the fact that

government revenue rose from 43.0 % of GDP to

45.0 % between 2010 and 2016. At the same time,

public spending fell from 47.3 % of GDP to

44.2 %. Since 2015, all levels of government

(federal, state, municipalities and social security)

have been making a positive contribution to the

budget surplus. The positive government balance

is also reflected in falling government debt, which

reached 70.9 % in 2015, falling further to 68.1 %

in 2016. According to the Commission’s 2017

autumn forecast, the debt ratio can be expected to

fall below the 60 % Maastricht threshold in the

next few years, possibly by 2019.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

Graph 1.9:

General government budget balance and

gross debt

Graph 1.10:

Tax wedge - 2016

% of GDP

% of labour

costs

% of GDP

forecast

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Budget balance (lhs)

Gross debt (rhs)

Employee SSC

Income tax

Employer SSC

DE employee SSC

Source:

European Commission

The tax wedge (

) remains substantial and has

been a major source of increasing government

revenue over the last few years.

The increase in

government revenue by around 2.0 % of GDP

between 2010 (43.0 %) and 2016 (45.0 %) is based

mainly on income taxes, which contribute 1.3 % to

the rise. According to 2016 data, Germany’s tax

wedge is one of the EU’s largest at 49.4 %

(average of 22 comparable European OECD

countries: 41.7 %) for a single earner earning

100 % of the average wage without children.

Graph 1.10 shows that, as in other countries,

income tax accounts only for about one third of the

tax wedge. It is rather social security contributions

that account for the biggest share. However, unlike

in most other European countries, that the German

employers pay a smaller share (16.2 %) than

employees (17.3 %). The employees’ share is one

of the largest in Europe (the average, for 21

comparable European OECD countries, is 10.1 %).

(See also Section 4.1).

(

) The tax wedge on labour represents the difference between

the total labour cost of employing a worker and the

worker’s net earnings. It is defined as personal income tax

and employer and employee social security contributions

(net of family benefits) as a percentage of total labour costs

(the wage and employer social security contributions).

Note: SSC = social security contributions

Source:

OECD

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

Table 1.1:

Key economic and financial indicators – Germany

forecast

2004-07 2008-12 2013-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2.2

0.7

1.2

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.1

1.3

0.9

1.4

1.7

1.9

0.7

0.5

3.1

9.9

7.7

0.8

1.9

0.5

2.2

0.8

1.5

1.2

3.2

3.3

1.7

2.9

1.5

5.2

5.6

2.1

3.7

3.1

2.6

3.9

Real GDP (y-o-y)

Potential growth (y-o-y)

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Public consumption (y-o-y)

Gross fixed capital formation (y-o-y)

Exports of goods and services (y-o-y)

Imports of goods and services (y-o-y)

Contribution to GDP growth:

Domestic demand (y-o-y)

Inventories (y-o-y)

Net exports (y-o-y)

Contribution to potential GDP growth:

Total Labour (hours) (y-o-y)

Capital accumulation (y-o-y)

Total factor productivity (y-o-y)

Output gap

Unemployment rate

GDP deflator (y-o-y)

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, y-o-y)

Nominal compensation per employee (y-o-y)

Labour productivity (real, person employed, y-o-y)

Unit labour costs (ULC, whole economy, y-o-y)

Real unit labour costs (y-o-y)

Real effective exchange rate (ULC, y-o-y)

Real effective exchange rate (HICP, y-o-y)

Savings rate of households (net saving as percentage of net

disposable income)

Private credit flow, consolidated (% of GDP)

Private sector debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

of which household debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

of which non-financial corporate debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

Gross non-performing debt (% of total debt instruments and total

loans and advances) (2)

Corporations, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of GDP)

Corporations, gross operating surplus (% of GDP)

Households, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of GDP)

Deflated house price index (y-o-y)

Residential investment (% of GDP)

Current account balance (% of GDP), balance of payments

Trade balance (% of GDP), balance of payments

Terms of trade of goods and services (y-o-y)

Capital account balance (% of GDP)

Net international investment position (% of GDP)

Net marketable external debt (% of GDP) (1)

Gross marketable external debt (% of GDP) (1)

Export performance vs. advanced countries (% change over 5 years)

Export market share, goods and services (y-o-y)

Net FDI flows (% of GDP)

General government balance (% of GDP)

Structural budget balance (% of GDP)

General government gross debt (% of GDP)

Tax-to-GDP ratio (%)

Tax rate for a single person earning the average wage (%)

Tax rate for a single person earning 50% of the average wage (%)

1.1

0.0

1.2

0.9

-0.3

0.2

1.0

0.1

1.8

-0.3

0.2

2.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.1

0.3

0.9

-0.5

10.1

0.9

1.9

0.6

1.5

-0.9

-1.8

-2.0

0.0

0.3

0.7

-0.9

6.6

1.2

1.7

2.1

-0.2

2.2

1.0

-0.4

-1.6

0.5

0.2

0.7

-0.5

5.1

1.9

1.2

2.3

0.5

1.8

-0.1

2.9

1.5

0.6

0.3

0.8

-0.3

4.6

2.0

0.1

2.7

0.8

1.8

-0.2

-2.6

-4.3

0.8

0.3

0.8

-0.2

4.1

1.3

0.4

2.2

0.6

1.6

0.2

1.3

1.6

0.7

0.4

0.9

0.0

3.7

1.5

1.7

2.5

0.8

1.8

0.2

2.3

0.6

0.4

0.9

0.2

3.5

1.9

1.6

2.7

1.6

-0.2

2.4

2.0

0.4

0.5

0.9

0.3

3.2

1.6

3.0

1.9

0.2

0.1

10.1

0.3

115.2

65.6

49.6

1.7

26.9

5.8

-2.0

5.1

5.4

5.5

-0.8

-0.1

14.1

9.6

125.3

14.8

-0.3

1.7

-2.2

65.5

38.7

42.3

31.8

9.9

0.5

106.7

58.7

48.1

2.1

2.4

25.8

5.4

0.7

5.3

6.0

5.4

-0.5

0.0

24.1

18.9

163.4

0.0

-3.5

1.2

-1.7

75.4

39.0

40.4

31.2

9.2

1.3

101.1

54.7

46.4

2.1

2.2

24.8

4.8

2.1

5.9

7.1

6.5

1.2

0.0

37.7

30.5

157.4

-4.0

2.0

1.6

0.1

0.5

76.0

39.6

39.5

30.8

9.6

3.0

98.7

53.3

45.4

2.0

2.7

25.2

5.2

4.1

5.7

8.5

8.0

2.6

0.0

48.6

36.9

150.6

-1.1

0.0

1.8

0.6

0.8

70.9

39.8

39.6

30.9

9.7

3.8

99.3

53.1

46.2

1.8

2.6

25.0

5.1

5.4

5.9

8.2

7.9

1.5

0.0

54.4

41.6

147.9

-0.3

3.3

0.7

0.8

0.9

68.1

40.4

39.7

31.0

2.4

24.8

4.6

6.0

7.8

-0.9

0.9

64.7

40.6

2.0

25.0

4.4

7.5

0.5

1.0

0.9

61.1

40.5

1.7

24.9

4.4

7.2

-0.2

1.1

1.0

57.9

40.6

(1) (1) NIIP excluding direct investment and portfolio equity shares. (2) Domestic banking groups and stand-alone banks, EU

and non-EU foreign-controlled subsidiaries and EU and non-EU foreign-controlled branches.

Source:

Eurostat and ECB as of 30 Jan 2018, where available; European Commission for forecast figures (Winter forecast 2018

for real GDP and HICP, Autumn forecast 2017 otherwise)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

PROGRESS WITH COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS

limited in scope, and no measures have yet been

taken to comprehensively review corporate

taxation and the local trade tax (Gewerbesteuer).

While the effects of some recent measures such as

steps to increase funding and planning capacity at

municipal level will be visible later, public

investment has expanded only to a small extent,

despite the good financial situation. This may have

meant missing out on possibilities to improve

potential growth, especially given the low-interest-

rate environment.

The good labour market outcomes result mainly

from earlier reforms and institutional strengths,

rather than recent measures.

High employment

growth and low unemployment reflect the strong

cyclical upturn combined with the favourable

impact of past labour market reforms, employment

friendly social dialogue, and a competitive export

industry. Between 2011 and 2016, the tax wedge

for workers earning two-thirds of the average wage

was cut by only 0.3 pps., to 45.3 %. During the

same period, the EU-28 average fell by 0.9 pps. to

36.8 %. While the 2014 pension reform facilitated

earlier retirement, it is not yet clear whether

measures to incentivise later retirement through

greater flexibility will have the intended effect. In

addition, fiscal disincentives for second earners

and people with mini-jobs remained largely

unchanged. Policy inertia contributes to some

lock-in of productive capacity, thus hindering

further increases in productivity and potential

growth. Even if the introduction of the statutory

general minimum wage in 2015 had an impact,

wage increases remained moderate. This also

reflected that, despite some government efforts to

improve bargaining coverage, coverage of

collective agreements stagnated.

Education spending has remained subdued.

Education spending remained well below the EU

average as a share of GDP (2011 4.3 %, 2015:

4.2 %, against an EU average of 4.9 %). While

availability of full-time childcare facilities and all-

day schools improved, the attendance of children

under 3 years of age remained slightly below the

Barcelona objectives. It even fell by 0.2 pps. to

32.7 % in 2016 as demand expanded as a result of

immigration. Despite some measures, the

education

system

remains

marked

socioeconomic inequalities, and across the

Länder

significant performance differences persist.

Progress

with

implementing

the

recommendations addressed to Germany in

2017 has to be seen in a longer term perspective

since the introduction of the European Semester

process in 2011.

(

) Looking at the multi-annual

assessment of the implementation of the CSRs

since these were first adopted, 38 % of all the

CSRs addressed to Germany have recorded at least

'some progress'. 62 % of CSRs recorded 'limited'

or 'no progress' (see Graph 2.1). Overall, for every

Semester cycle, multi-annual implementation in

Germany has remained relatively weak, remaining

below the average of the progress made by other

Member States. Moreover, the gap in reform

implementation between Germany and other

countries has widened over time, despite the fact

that since 2014 Germany has been subject to in-

depth monitoring under the Macroeconomic

Imbalances Procedure (MIP).

Graph 2.1:

Overall multiannual implementation of 2011-

2017 CSRs to date

No Progress

Limited Progress

Some Progress

22%

59%

Substantial Progress

Full Implementation

* The overall assessment of the country-specific

recommendations related to fiscal policy exclude

compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

** 2011-2012: Different CSR assessment categories.

***The multiannual CSR assessment looks at the

implementation since the CSRs were first adopted until the

February 2018 Country report.

Source:

European Commission

A sound fiscal position masks missed fiscal and

structural reform opportunities.

Germany has

managed to preserve a sound fiscal position since

2011, ensuring compliance with its medium-term

budgetary objective and keeping debt on a

downward path. It has also taken some first steps

to improve fiscal governance, which involves

matching fiscal capacity and responsibilities better

at federal and

Länder

level. Reforming efforts to

make the tax system more efficient and modernise

the tax administration have however remained

(

) For the assessment of other reforms implemented in the

past, see in particular section 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.5 and 4.6.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

Table 2.1:

Summary table on 2017 CSR assessment

Germany

CSR1:

While respecting the medium-term objective, use fiscal

and structural policies to support potential growth and

domestic demand as well as to achieve a sustained upward

trend in investment. Accelerate public investment at all levels of

government, especially in education, research and innovation,

and address capacity and planning constraints for

infrastructure investments. Further improve the efficiency and

investment-friendliness of the tax system. Stimulate competition

in business services and regulated professions.

Overall assessment of progress with 2017 CSRs:

Limited

Limited progress (1)



Limited progress in using fiscal and structural policies to

support potential growth and domestic demand as well as to

achieve a sustained upward trend in investment.

Limited progress in accelerating public investment at all

levels of government and in particular in raising public

expenditure on education, research and innovation.

Some progress in addressing capacity and planning

constraints for infrastructure investment.

No progress in improving the efficiency and investment

friendliness of the tax system.

Limited progress in stimulating competition in business

services and regulated professions.

Limited progress in reducing disincentives to work for

second earners.

Limited progress in facilitating transitions to standard

employment.

Limited progress in reducing the high tax wedge for low-

wage earners.

Limited progress in creating conditions to promote higher

real wage growth, respecting the role of the social partners.

Limited progress

CSR2:

Reduce disincentives to work for second earners and



facilitate transitions to standard employment. Reduce the high



tax wedge for low-wage earners. Create conditions to promote

higher real wage growth, respecting the role of the social



partners.



(1) This overall assessment of CSR1 does not include an assessment of compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

Source:

European Commission

To date, there is no comprehensive strategy to

modernise the regulated professions and to

boost competition in the service sector.

Extensive

regulatory

restrictions

and

administrative formalities apply to firms providing

services in Germany, especially where business

services are concerned. Germany submitted an

action plan to the European Commission in

January 2016, including a range of measures, such

as modifying the legal provisions governing

certain specific professions: lawyers and patent

attorneys, tax advisers, and auditors. Yet, it has

only partially adopted or implemented the

measures described. Overall, progress is limited.

Overall, Germany has made limited progress in

responding to the 2017 country-specific

recommendations (CSRs)

(

). Limited progress

has been made towards achieving sustainable

growth in public investment, a CSR closely related

to the euro area recommendation about

(

) Information on the level of progress and actions taken to

address the policy advice in each respective subpart of a

CSR is presented in the Overview Table in the Annex. This

overall assessment does not include an assessment of

compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

strengthening domestic demand and growth

potential. This is done by stepping up investment

in infrastructure and boosting the funding available

under the Municipal Investment Promotion Fund

for modernising school buildings, including digital

infrastructure. At the same time, there has been

limited progress with stepping up public

expenditure on education, research and innovation

which even if increasing in absolute terms, has

remained largely stagnant as a share of GDP.

Some progress has been made with tackling

capacity and planning constraints on investment in

infrastructure. No progress has been made with

making the tax system more efficient and

investment-friendly. Progress was limited in

promoting competition in the business services and

regulated professions. Progress was limited on

issues also related to the euro area

recommendation on labour market, including on

reducing disincentives to work for second earners,

facilitating transition to standard employment and

reducing the tax wedge for low-wage earners.

Similarly, limited progress has been made with

creating conditions for higher real wage growth.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

Box 2.1:

Tangible results delivered through EU support to structural change in Germany

Germany is a beneficiary of significant European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI Funds)

support and can receive up to EUR 28 billion until 2020.

This represents around 4% of public

investment (

) annually over the period 2014-2018. By 31 December 2017, an estimated EUR 14.9 billion

(53 % of the total) was allocated to projects on the ground. These investments help creating 1 500 new

research jobs in supported public and private research facilities. Another 8 100 researchers benefit from

investments in their institutions. More than 100 interactive innovation partnerships have been launched

boosting the innovation culture in the agricultural and forestry sector in Germany. 1 600 children enjoy

improved childcare facilities or schools in North Rhine-Westphalia. In rural areas, more than 20 million

rural inhabitants benefit from supported investment in basic services and infrastructures.

ESI Funds help address structural policy challenges and implement country-specific

recommendations.

Investments in research and development in the private sector are stimulated, among

others, by the enhanced use of financial instruments such as loans, grants or guarantees for public

interventions. The Funds invest in coaching for people with a distance to the labour market which in turn

helps enhance the overall labour market participation with specific measures aimed at improving the job

prospects of older workers.

Various reforms were undertaken already as precondition for ESI Funds support (

For example, all

German regions developed or updated Smart Specialisation Strategies for research and innovation.

Remarkable in a European context is the strong focus of the strategies on the productive environment and

materials, reflecting the structure of the German economy.

Germany is advancing the take up of the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI).

As of

December 2017, overall financing volume of operations approved under the EFSI amounted to EUR 5

billion, which is expected to trigger total private and public investment of EUR 21.9 billion. More

specifically, 53 projects involving Germany have been approved so far under the Infrastructure and

Innovation Window (including 26 multi-country projects), amounting to EUR 4.4 billion in EIB financing

under the EFSI. This is expected to trigger about EUR 17 billion in investments. Under the SME Window,

21 agreements with financial intermediaries have been approved so far. European Investment Fund

financing enabled by the EFSI amounts to EUR 632 million, which is expected to mobilise approximatively

EUR 4.9 billion in total investment. Over 28 800 smaller companies or start-ups will benefit from this

support. RDI ranks first in terms of operations and volume approved, followed by energy, transport and

SMEs.

Funding under Horizon 2020, the Connecting Europe Facility and other directly managed EU funds is

additional to the ESI Funds.

By the end of 2017, Germany has signed agreements for EUR 2.1 billion for

projects under the Connecting Europe Facility.

https://cohesiondata.ec.europa.eu/countries/DE

(

) Public investment is defined as gross fixed capital formation + investment grants + national expenditure on agriculture

and fisheries.

( ) Before programmes are adopted, Member States are required to comply with a number of so-called ex-ante

conditionalities, which aim at improving conditions for the majority of public investments areas.

European Structural and Investment Funds

help address challenges to inclusive growth and

convergence.

Notably, they contribute by

coaching people so that they can re-enter the

labour market thereby enhancing overall labour

market participation. For example, they offer

specific measures for older workers in order to

improve their job prospects. Investments in R&D

in the private and the public sector are stimulated,

also through the use of financial instruments (see

Box 2.1).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

SUMMARY OF THE MAIN FINDINGS FROM THE

MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES PROCEDURE IN-DEPTH

REVIEW

The in-depth review for the German economy is

presented in this report.

In spring 2017,

Germany was identified as having macroeconomic

imbalances, in particular relating to its large

current account surplus reflecting excess savings

and subdued investment. The 2018 Alert

Mechanism Report (European Commission,

2017d) concluded that a new in-depth review

should be undertaken for Germany to assess

developments relating to identified imbalances.

Analyses relevant for the in-depth review can be

found in the following sections: public finances in

section 4.1; the financial sector in section 4.2; the

labour market and social policy, in the respective

subsections of section 4.3; inequality and

demographics in section 4.4, public and private

investment, the housing market and public

procurement in the respective subsections of

section 4.5. (

Imbalances and their gravity

of cheaper imports and despite the depreciation of

the euro and low inflation - have served to amplify

the surplus in nominal terms in 2014-2016. Over

time, these various factors have pushed up net

savings across all sectors of the economy, while at

the same time depressing the consumption and

investment ratios.

Given its size and strong trade and financial

linkages with the rest of the euro area, the

existing economic challenges of the German

economy also have wider implications for the

euro area.

Thus, implementing policies that

increase potential growth in Germany can help to

support the ongoing euro area recovery and, in

turn, ease debt reduction needs faced by highly

indebted Member States. Box 3.1 illustrates the

effects on domestic and foreign GDP of an

increase in spending on R&D and education. The

two simulations presented therein follow the spirit

of the euro area recommendation 1(

), in particular

as regards improving growth potential and

supporting the creation of quality jobs.

Evolution, prospects, and policy responses

Germany's large and persistent current account

surplus stems from the successful export

performance of its manufacturing sector not

being matched by corresponding domestic

investment and consumption, despite a pick-up

since 2015.

Although a surplus on the current

account is consistent with the German economy's

structural characteristics, its current high level and

persistence are not attributable to fundamental

factors alone (see section 1 on current account

'norm' discussion). Rather, it has resulted from the

interaction of various domestic and external

factors. Chief among these are the two negative

private investment shocks, which ensued from the

bursting of the dotcom and financial market

bubbles, and the relative disadvantage of German

debt securities in terms of returns coupled with the

limited flexibility of households' investment

strategies. Also, it cannot be ruled out that

concerns about pension adequacy push up the

aggregate saving rate that would be expected in

view of the strong age cohorts approaching

retirement age (‘baby boomers’). Moreover,

significant positive terms-of-trade effects - in view

(

) An asterisk indicates that the analysis in the section

contributes to the in-depth review under the MIP.

The current account surplus has been falling

since 2015 but remains above the rate suggested

by fundamental factors and is expected to

remain above the MIP threshold.

For the 12

months ending in November 2017, it stood at

7.8 % of GDP, suggesting a further decline

compared to 2015 (8.5 %) and 2016 (8.2 %). This

correction was mainly driven by the trade balance,

which declined to 8.2 % for the 12 months ending

November after hovering at around 8.5 % in 2015

and 2016. In particular, imports have strengthened

in line with domestic demand benefitting all major

trading partner areas, including the euro area. In

addition, contributing to a gradual correction of the

current account surplus, the negative secondary

income balance has widened (from -1.3 % of GDP

in 2016 to -1.6 % for the 12 months ending in

November 2017) as a result of higher private

sector transfers (notably remittances) abroad.

However, net capital exports have remained high

(

) European Commission recommendation for a Council

recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area

(22.11.2017).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

although their composition has changed. In recent

quarters, they have been driven by recalling

German bonds rather than by acquiring foreign

debt securities. The former has also coincided with

a mounting TARGET 2 balance. Outward foreign

direct investment abroad saw some recovery in

comparison to 2016. All in all, accumulated

current account surpluses have resulted in a large

positive net international investment position,

which reached 55.1% in 2016, somewhat above

what fundamental factors would suggest.

The private saving-investment balance did not

widen further in 2016.

Private borrowing rose

further in 2016 slightly above GDP growth, while

the rate of net asset accumulation by the private

sector stabilised. Nominal corporate investment

increased in 2016 and further in 2017, while

corporate savings are projected to have fallen

slightly as a proportion of GDP. This implies that

companies, which are among the least indebted in

the euro area, have helped bring down the savings

surplus. The household savings rate rose to 17.1 %

in 2016, propped up by low consumer price

inflation, but is projected to have fallen to 16.6 %

in 2017, in line with robust consumer and rising

inflation. However, the household savings rate is

likely to remain the highest in the euro area (whose

average is 12.3 %). In 2016, the household

investment growth rebounded and households’ net

lending position weakened marginally. Household

investment is expected to have grown strongly in

2017, lowering the net lending balance further.

Until recently, corporate investment has been

held back, despite the low interest rate

environment.

While private investment has

recovered to pre-crisis levels, business investment

has remained largely flat as a share of GDP.

Moreover, in view of the favourable financing

conditions and low interest rate environment, a

more forceful pick-up could have been expected.

Uncertainty over long-term business prospects is

often mentioned as a probable contributory factor

in domestic investment restraint in recent years. In

terms of its components, non-residential

construction (e.g. infrastructure) investment has

stagnated after years of decline before the crisis.

By contrast, investment in residential construction

has recently seen strong growth, partly reflecting a

sizable accumulated housing supply shortage.

While private infrastructure investment continued

to stagnate in 2017, foreign direct investment

(reinforcing foreign production locations) picked

up. This suggests it may be useful to review

potential obstacles other than uncertainty to private

investment. They include: inefficiency in corporate

taxation; the high administrative burden; the less

developed venture capital market compared to

international innovation leaders; regulatory

restrictiveness in the services sector; and delays in

implementation of electricity and broadband

infrastructure projects.

Public investment, which has been muted, has

fallen short of depreciation.

As mentioned in

Section 4.5, net public investment turned negative

in 2003. This outcome reflects a gradual scaling

back of investment in maintaining and expanding

public infrastructure. The design of federal fiscal

relations may also have contributed to protracted

underinvestment, especially at municipal level,

where net investment has been markedly negative

since 2003. It is also partly a reaction to the post-

unification investment boom in eastern Germany

and the consolidation needs in western Germany,

notably at municipal level. An additional annual

public investment of 0.3 % of GDP over the next

decade would be needed to close the investment

backlog at the municipal level. The latter is

estimated at EUR 126 bn in 2017, according to the

yearly survey conducted by the public

development bank KfW (2017a).

Years of restrained growth in consumption

have also dampened domestic demand and

contributed to the building up of the external

surplus.

High unemployment, a long period of

wage moderation and a fall in the total number of

hours worked in the first half of the 2000s resulted

in low growth in disposable incomes, even if

consumer price inflation was supportive of

purchasing power. Wage growth picked up from

2014, but not to the extent the tightening labour

market situation and unit labour costs in relation to

the euro area average would suggest. Since 2014,

nominal wage growth remained roughly stable

even as inflation picked up in 2017, resulting in the

slowing down of real wage growth. Disincentives

to work for certain groups are constraining labour

participation, disposable income and consumption

opportunities. These include a high tax wedge for

low-wage earners, disincentives for second earners

to increase working hours and the fiscal treatment

of mini-jobs that creates lock-in effects.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

The adjustment of the current account surplus

is expected to be only gradual in the medium

term.

Both export and import growth is expected

to remain strong, while terms of trade effects are

set to have an only limited impact. Stronger import

growth is expected to be driven by a pick-up in

equipment investment and demand for foreign

inputs along the value chain amidst stable

domestic and foreign demand growth. As a result

of stronger growth of imports as compared to

exports, Germany’s trade surplus should continue

to ease leading to a gradual decline in the current

account surplus. Over a longer period of time, the

large-scale demographic shift from working to

retirement age is expected to start to lower the

aggregate savings rate and thus the current account

surplus. However, in the medium term, the current

account surplus is expected to remain above the

MIP threshold and to decline only gradually.

(European Commission, 2017b)

The policy response to address the imbalances

has remained limited so far.

Although the federal

fiscal reform and the relieving of municipalities

from certain social spending obligations will

strengthen the fiscal position of the

Länder

and

municipalities, it remains to be seen to what extent

this additional fiscal space will actually be used for

additional public investment. The consultancy and

the federal transport infrastructure company, set up

in the context of the reform of fiscal relations to

support the local governments in planning and

implementing investment projects, can be expected

to accelerate public investment. Yet, this reform

falls short of increasing the tax autonomy of the

Länder

and municipalities, which could have

further increased the scope for public investment.

Efforts to improve the business environment for

private investment have remained limited. The

same holds for efforts to reduce the high tax wedge

for low earners and work disincentives for second

earners, with a view to supporting labour market

participation, disposable income and consumption.

Overall assessment

the German economy and society. Hence, it is

significantly higher than empirical benchmarks,

taking into account these factors in explaining

cross-country differences, and much above the

level that would be required to stabilise the already

high net international investment position (i.e.

above the NIIP benchmark) (

). Subdued

investment and private consumption, resulting in

an excess of saving over investment, have also

contributed to the build-up of the external surplus.

This can be partly explained by necessary

adjustments in the aftermath of the post-unification

boom, including prolonged wage moderation,

labour market reforms and significant scaling back

of construction activity. While there is currently a

clear and robust shift towards more domestic

demand-driven growth, both consumption and

investment remain relatively low, given the

favourable cyclical, labour market, financing

conditions and infrastructure investment needs.

Continued relatively subdued investment as a

share of GDP also undermines Germany’s

future growth potential, and has implications

for the euro area.

While private consumption has

picked up, private investment has remained

restrained, despite favourable financing conditions.

Public investment has picked up, though budget

projections indicate scope under EU and national

fiscal rules for further increases. Persistently low

investment could hamper Germany’s economic

growth in the long term. Stronger capital

accumulation would be needed to sustain potential

growth in the future, especially if population

ageing intensifies and immigration slows down.

Given Germany's size and strong trade and

financial linkages with the rest of the euro area,

expanding investment could also ease deleveraging

needs faced by highly indebted Member States.

Overall, the policy response to address the

imbalances has so far remained limited.

The

federal fiscal reform and associated measures led

to a moderate improvement of fiscal space and

investment capacity for municipalities. Efforts to

improve the business environment for private

investment have remained limited. The same holds

for efforts to reduce the high tax wedge for low

earners and work disincentives for second earners.

(

) Work on the methodology for estimating current account

benchmark is ongoing in cooperation with the Economic

Policy Committee.

The German economy displays a persistently

large current account surplus, which reflects a

subdued level of investment relative to saving.

The size and persistence of the surplus can only be

partly explained by the country's industrial

structure

(e.g.

the

highly

competitive

manufacturing sector) and other characteristics of

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Box 3.1:

Euro area spillovers

Based on the European Commission’s QUEST model (

), this box compares the effect of an increase in

expenditure on R&D and education (

These scenarios specifically aim at improving potential growth,

thereby addressing long-term challenges of the German economy and complementing earlier simulations

that aimed at a more immediate economic boost, including an increase in public investment and a reduction

in personal income tax (European Commission, 2017c).

Not surprisingly, the overall effects are relatively limited in the short-run.

Based on model assumptions,

education reforms lead to only very gradual changes in aggregate skill levels due to cohort effects, as it takes

time for the new, better-skilled cohorts to enter to the labour force (

).R&D subsidies may be even

accompanied by a slight decline of GDP, as stronger R&D activity detracts high-skilled labour from other

sectors of the economy. Fostering R&D should therefore ideally be combined with policies that increase the

supply of high-skilled workers, e.g. investment in tertiary education, in order to dampen the competition for

high-skilled labour.

While the reforms already generate certain positive spillovers in the short run, their impact increases

considerably over time.

Both simulated reforms together positively contribute to GDP and employment in

the rest of the euro area in the longer term. For an identical amount of fiscal spending, the long-term positive

spillovers are particularly high for the R&D expenditure, while also being significant for the education

measures. It is estimated that increasing R&D expenditure by 1 % of GDP will raise GDP in the rest of the

euro area by about 0.4 % in 15 years and by 0.6% in 20 years. This will be achieved through increased

domestic output and thanks to knowledge spillovers, resulting from the international dissemination of

innovations that foster intangible capital formation and productivity gains abroad. Increasing education

expenditure by 1 % of GDP across-the-board of education institutions is expected to increase the GDP of the

rest of the euro area by 0.15 % after 20 years through the trade channel; spillovers in the form of cross-

border knowledge dissemination are absent in the scenario of higher domestic spending on education.

Spillovers are further mitigated by the fact that domestic competitiveness gains (more net exports) partly

offset positive demand spillovers (more net imports) to the rest of the euro area.

Table 1:

Years

R&D subsidy (1 % GDP)

GDP

Employment

T rade balance (% GDP)

Government balance (% GDP)

Education subsidy (1 % GDP)

GDP

Employment

T rade balance (% GDP)

Government balance (% GDP)

0.42

0.16

0.45

0.15

0.56

0.11

0.70

0.09

0.84

0.07

1.54

2.30

2.86

0.01

0.03

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.06

0.07

0.02

0.11

0.02

0.15

0.13

0.02

0.00 -0.13 -0.26

-0.10 -0.55 -0.66 -0.54 -0.29

0.33

0.43

0.42

0.39

0.38

1.46

0.38

3.25

0.37

4.39

0.36

0.07

0.20

0.02 -0.01

0.01

0.12

0.00

0.17

0.00

0.02

0.17

0.02

0.05

0.16

0.04

0.08

0.15

0.20

0.14

0.39

0.33

0.06

0.61

0.41

0.04

Impact of the reform scenarios in Germany and in the rest of the euro area

Germany

Rest of euro area

-0.09 -0.12 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 0.06 0.07

-0.55 -0.55 -0.61 -0.64 -0.63 -0.39 -0.07

-0.17 -0.15 -0.12 -0.10 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.06

-0.29 -0.34 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.33 -0.31 -0.31

(1) To illustrate the reading of the table: increasing expenditure on education by 1% of GDP (about EUR 30 bn)

increases German GDP by 0.42% of GDP in the first year following the measure and by 2.86% in the twentieth year

following the measure.

Source:

European Commission

(

) Detailed

information

the

QUEST

model

and

applications

available

at:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/research/macroeconomic_models_en.htm.

(

) For illustration, the expenditure increase on R&D and education is assumed to be permanent and scaled to 1 % of GDP

in both cases. The budgetary-closure rule is deactivated during 20 years, so that the scenarios correspond to debt-

financed fiscal expansions. Monetary policy rates are assumed to remain unchanged, not responding to the increase in

public investment during the first two years.

(

) The simulation scenario assumes that the additional spending increases productivity of employees at all skill-levels.

Though the model cannot differentiate different types of education, one could assume that increased spending on adult

education would be effective in the short to medium-term, while general education has rather long-term effects.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

Table 3.1:

MIP assessment matrix – Germany

Gravity of the challenge

Evolution and prospects

Policy response

Imbalances (unsustainable trends, vulnerabilities and associated risks)

External

balance

Germany has a persistently large

current account surplus, which

came down marginally to 8.2 %

of GDP in 2016 and recently

decreased to 7.8% for the year

ending in November 2017.

Accumulated surpluses have

resulted in a large positive net

international investment position,

which reached 55.1 % of GDP in

2016.

The surplus reflects saving and

deleveraging by all sectors of the

economy: households, firms, and

the public sector. High corporate

savings and low investment have

contributed most significantly to

the widening of the savings

surplus in recent years.

Weak domestic investment poses

risks to Germany’s potential

growth in the future. In addition,

as deleveraging pressures still

weigh

growth,

strengthening

investment

Germany would benefit both

Germany and its euro area and

EU partners.

The German surplus is projected to decline but to

persist at more than 7 % of GDP in the medium

term. Imports have been increasing, including

relative to exports and GDP, over the recent

quarters. Net capital exports have remained

significant on account of repatriation of German

bonds while investment in foreign debt securities

slowed down.

Real private consumption has strengthened, by

2.1 % in 2016 and 2017, and is expected to slow

down only marginally. The low interest rates

have not translated into significant changes in

household consumption patterns, but rather

reinforced the propensity to save. An extended

period of dynamic wage growth would support

private consumption, provided it also translates

fully into disposable income.

At its current level, investment contributes little

to potential growth. Private sector investment has

increased recently but as a share of GDP it

remains sluggish at 17.9 % in 2016. Importantly,

investment in infrastructure has barely reacted to

supportive growth and funding conditions,

casting doubt on the evolution of the economy's

future productive capacity.

Public investment picked up in 2016 and 2017.

However, there has been no reversal of the

markedly negative net investment at municipal

level. Public investment is set to grow at a

stronger pace, once financial relief and planning

support that has been granted to federal states and

municipalities is starting to bear fruit.

The policy response so far has remained

limited. Important steps have been taken

to increase public investment, but they

have not yet resulted in a clear upward

trend in the public investment-to-GDP

ratio.

Germany has used its available fiscal

space only to a limited extent and has not

taken full advantage of exceptionally

favourable financing conditions to meet

its investment needs and improve

conditions for private investment

Relieving municipalities of social

expenditure obligations will increase

their scope for public investment. The

additional revenue of 0.3 % of GDP

allocated to the federal states as part of

the agreed reform of federal fiscal

relations could also facilitate public

investment at all government levels. A

consulting service for municipalities has

been put in place and may alleviate

administrative constraints on public

infrastructure investment.

Limited efforts have been made in 2017

to stimulate competition in the services

sector, improve the efficiency of the tax

system, reduce the high tax wedge

(especially for low wage earners),

reducing disincentives for second

earners, facilitating the transition to

standard employment and creating

conditions to promote higher real wage

growth, respecting the role of the social

partners.

Conclusions from IDR analysis



Germany is running a persistently large current account surplus reflecting subdued investment relative to savings in both the private

and public sector. Persistently weak domestic investment could constrain potential growth in the long term. This could entail

macroeconomic risks and affect the rebalancing and growth prospects of the rest of the euro area, when deleveraging pressures in

several Member States persist.

While private consumption has strengthened, business investment has remained restrained, despite the favourable financing

conditions. An even stronger increase in private consumption is hampered by only moderately rising wages despite a rather tight

labour market as well as a persistently high tax burden and disincentives to work for certain groups. Public investment has picked up,

though the available fiscal space has not been fully used.

Steps taken to increase public investment have not yet resulted in a clear upward trend in the public investment-to-GDP ratio that

appears required to close the infrastructure investment gap. Efforts to improve the business environment for private investment have

remained very limited. Regulatory restrictiveness in the services sector remains high and inefficiency in corporate taxation persists.

Disincentives to work for certain groups continue to reduce labour supply, disposable income and consumption opportunities.



Source:

European Commission

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

REFORM PRIORITIES

4.1. PUBLIC FINANCES, FISCAL FRAMEWORKS AND

TAXATION*(

)

Public finances

Taxation

Germany’s public finances are robust, and the

debt-to-GDP ratio is improving.

Since its bottom

in 2010 (-4.2 % of GDP) in the aftermath of the

financial crisis, the budgetary balance has

consistently improved, becoming positive in 2014,

and rising to +0.8 % in 2016 and to 1.2 % in 2017.

Likewise, overall government debt, which peaked

at 81.0 % of GDP in 2010, has fallen continuously,

reaching 68.1 % in 2016. According to the

Commission's 2017 autumn forecast, it is expected

to fall below the 60 % Maastricht threshold by

2019 (European Commission, 2017b). While

government revenues increased by 2.0 pps. of

GDP between 2007 and 2016, mainly owing to

higher income taxes and social security

contributions (see graph 4.1.1), government

expenditure increased by only 1.3 pps. of GDP.

Graph 4.1.1:

Government balance and trends in selected

revenues and expenditures

The overall level of taxation corresponds to the

average among the Member States, but the tax

wedge is high.

The overall level of taxation at

39 % of GDP in 2016 lies between the euro area

average of 40.1 % and the EU average of 38.9 %.

The tax wedge for low earners (at 50% of the

average wage) is high and only 9.2 pps. lower than

the tax wedge for high wage earners (at 167% of

the average wage), indicating relatively low

progressivity compared to other EU countries.

Social security contributions account for about

two thirds of the tax wedge, while income tax

accounts for only one third. Importantly,

employees contribute well above average to the

security systems, while employers' contributions

are still below average (see also Box 4.1 which

displays various possible scenarios to remedy this

state of affairs).

Graph 4.1.2:

Taxes by economic function

% of GDP

Consumption

bn EUR,

y-o-y

change

bn EUR

-10

-20

-30

-40

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Interest (reversed sign)

Social contributions

Current taxes on income and wealth

Taxes on production and imports

Net lending(=)/net borrowing(-) (rhs)

180

160

140

120

100

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

Capital

Labour - Paid by

employers

Labour - Paid by non-

employed

Labour - Paid by

employees

EU28

EA19

Source:

European Commission, 2017c

Source:

European Commission

(

) An asterisk shows that the analysis in the section

contributes to the in-depth review under the MIP (see

Section 3 for an overall summary of main findings).

By comparison with other EU countries,

Germany places a relatively strong emphasis on

more distortive direct taxes, notably on labour,

to raise revenues.

Taxes on income from

employment amounted to 19.3 % of GDP in 2015,

the 6th highest figure in the EU-28. By contrast,

revenue from taxes on consumption and capital fall

at the lower end of the distribution, ranking 23rd

and 15th out of 28 countries. In 2015, revenues

from recurrent property taxes came to 0.4 % of

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.1. Public finances, fiscal frameworks and taxation*

GDP, which is well below the EU average of

4.3 %. All in all, taxes on labour contribute above

average to government revenue in Germany, by

comparison with other EU countries, while capital

taxes are much lower.

Over the past ten years, transfer property taxes

have become increasingly important in the

financing of states' budgets.

All the

Länder,

except Bavaria and Saxony have increased their

tax rates on property transfers since 2007. In a

number of cases, the rate almost doubled. Overall,

almost all

Länder

now apply rates between 5 %

and 6.5 %, up from a uniform 3.5 % in 2007. In

combination with higher real estate prices, the

increased rates have boosted tax revenue

considerably. This trend is expected to continue

(IW Köln, 2017).

There is potential for shifting taxation from

labour to other tax bases less detrimental to

growth, including environmental taxes.

At 1.9 %

of GDP, the overall level of environmental taxes is

quite low in Germany compared with the EU

average of 2.4 % of GDP.(

) In 2004, the level

was still at the EU average, but since then it has

fallen steadily. This decrease was driven mainly by

a decrease in transport fuel taxes. The tax rates on

motor fuels have not been adjusted since 2003. As

a result, they have been eroded by inflation to the

level before the ecological tax reform. The tax

advantage on marginal rates on diesel compared to

petrol is among the highest in the EU, although

diesel has a more harmful impact on ambient air

quality than unleaded petrol. Exemptions from the

energy tax for specific energy-intensive processes

were introduced in 2006, when the energy tax law

was introduced. In recent years, no measures have

been taken to broaden the tax base by reducing

environmentally harmful tax incentives, such as

energy tax reductions and the favourable taxation

of company cars. Such measures would allow a

shift to tax sources less detrimental to growth and

help to resolve environmental issues (see also

Section 4.6).

Germany's tax system is still not very conducive

to investment.

Its statutory corporate tax rate of

(

) The renewable energy surcharge (EEG-Umlage), which

comes to about 0.8 % of GDP is not included in this

statistic as it not a tax in the legal sense.

31 % is among the EU's highest and it is also high

in comparison with other major economies (ZEW,

2017a).(

) Apart from inefficiencies arising from

the inclusion of some non-profit elements in the

local trade tax base, the system is susceptible to

special tax planning to minimise tax payments.(

)

Similarly, the effective average tax rate stands at

28.2 %, significantly above the EU average

20.9 %. Moreover, the debt bias in corporate

taxation also remains high 7

highest in the EU.

This is because debt financing costs are deductible

from the corporate income tax base, whereas the

same treatment is not extended to equity financing

costs. In the ‘International Tax Competitiveness

Ranking’ of 35 OECD countries (Pomerlo, 2017),

Germany’s system ranks 21st overall and 14th as

regards corporate tax. The low ranking, in 29th

position of personal income taxation, also

applicable to transparent entities as partnerships, is

a result of the system's complexity and the high tax

rates. Moreover, loss-carry forward provisions are

relatively strict, limiting the amount to 60 % of the

taxable income for a given year. Finally, Germany

also ranks very low (31

out of 33 countries

examined,) as regards attractiveness to businesses

engaged in digital activities (ZEW, 2017b).

In the past few years, a number of targeted

measures have been taken to make the tax

framework more conducive to investment.

The

INVEST grant programme, set up in 2013,

supports private investors wishing to acquire a

stake in innovative new companies. Under this

programme, investors in start-ups receive a tax free

grant worth 20 % of the sum invested. The

programme was expanded as of January 2017 (see

section 4.6 on venture capital) and the maximum

grant was doubled. An exit grant for individuals

selling their shares was introduced, amounting to

25 % on the capital gains, which roughly covers

the tax due on the sale. (

) A recent study notes

that some of the INVEST scheme's features

constitute good practice, such as the use of upfront

relief administered outside the tax system, and the

(

) This is the result of a local trade tax (Gewerbesteuer) added

to the corporate income tax as well as the solidarity

surcharge.

(

) Entschließung des Bundesrates zur Verhinderung von

Gestaltungsmodellen zur Minderung der Gewerbesteuer

mittels Lizenzzahlungen – 'Gerechte Verteilung der

Gewerbesteuer zwischen den Gemeinden gewährleisten'

( ) Furthermore, shares can now be held by either a natural

person or by an associated company and follow-up

financing support was introduced.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.1. Public finances, fiscal frameworks and taxation*

scheme's transparent cost and impact monitoring

of the scheme (PWC and IHS, 2017). Other

measures taken in 2016 include: simplified

taxation of investment funds, revisions to the rules

for tax loss carry forwards and measures to

modernise tax administration procedures (see

European Commission, 2017c).

Reducing tax exemptions from inheritance tax

can help address the highly unequal

distribution of wealth and broaden the tax base

to allow reducing the burden on smaller family

businesses.

With 0.16 % of GDP inheritance tax

accounts for only 0.41 % of total tax revenue,

according to 2012 data. Estimates suggest that a

total of about EUR 200 to 300 billion (around 6-

10 % of GDP) is given as a gift or inherited in

Germany every year (Bach and Thiemann, 2016).

These capital transfers are highly concentrated at

the top of the wealth distribution: one third of the

total amount of inheritances and gifts is transferred

to just 1.5 % of beneficiaries, who receive

inheritances of over EUR 500 000. The 0.08 % of

cases involving transfers exceeding EUR 5 million

received 14 % of the transfer volume and more

than half of corporate transfers, which are

currently largely exempt from inheritance tax. The

2016 reform of the inheritance tax is expected to

change little in this regard. A reduction of the tax

exemptions would significantly broaden the tax

base, which would make it possible to reduce tax

rates and lower the burden on smaller family

businesses (Bach and Thiemann, 2016).

Low recurrent taxes on property and

inheritance should be seen in the context of

substantial wealth inequality.

At 0.76, the 2014

Gini coefficient for net wealth in Germany was the

second highest in the euro area (whose overall Gini

coefficient was 0.69, based on data from the

second wave of the European Central Bank's

Household Finance and Consumption Survey). The

wealthiest 10 % of the population hold about 60 %

of total wealth, while the lower half of all

households holds only around 1 %. Real estate

ownership and business assets were strongly

concentrated among the wealthier households, with

only 10 % holding shares or business assets, and

13 % holding mutual investment funds. In the

absence of a wealth tax, higher and more targeted

inheritance taxes applied to the wealthiest strata of

society could help reducing wealth inequality. In a

recently published report on wealth and poverty by

the German government (Federal Ministry for

Labour and Social Affairs, 2017a), two thirds of

respondents said inheritances were their main

source of wealth, rather than savings.

Healthcare

The German health system is performing well,

although it is costly and there is scope for

efficiency gains.

Health expenditure as a

percentage of GDP, 11.3 % in 2016, is the highest

in the EU and the ratio has increased by 1.2 pps.

However, over the period 2016-2070, the expected

increase of 0.7% in the public expenditure on

health care (7.4% of GDP in 2016 excluding

expenditure on long-term nursing care but

including capital formation), appears moderate

compared to 0.9% for the EU also in light of the

ageing population in Germany (European

Commission, 2018). Germany provides 813 beds

per 100 000 population, the highest ratio in the EU

(515). However, bed capacity has been reduced by

3.9 % since 2005, which is less than the EU

average of 11.9 %. The average length of a

hospital stay in 2015 (9 days) was among the EU's

highest. France, for instance, is at the lower end of

the distribution with only 5.5 days. High rates of

avoidable hospital admissions for chronic diseases

also suggest over-provision of hospital care and

room for better integration of primary care,

ambulatory specialist care and in-patient care

(OECD and European Observatory on Health

Systems and Policies, 2017).

Expenditure on pharmaceuticals is high and

growing.

Germans spend the most per capita on

retail pharmaceuticals in the EU. The consumption

of prescribed defined daily doses rose by over

50 % between 2004 and 2015. Overall,

pharmaceutical expenditure has increased by about

70 % since 2000 — more than any other cost item

covered by statutory health insurance (SHI). The

main reason for this is patent-protected new

originator products, though generics account for a

substantial share of the total (81 % in 2016). The

daily treatment costs of patented medicines are on

average 16 times higher than for generics.

(Schwabe et al, 2017)

The legal framework for statutory health

insurance (SHI) and private health insurance

(PHI) creates inefficiencies and challenges the

solidarity principle in health care.

The SHI is

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.1. Public finances, fiscal frameworks and taxation*

based on the principle of ability to pay (risk- and

income based solidarity), while the PHI is financed

through risk-related premiums. SHI contributions

are independent of risk and based on income up to

a certain threshold, and non-earning spouses and

children are covered without any surcharges. PHI

premiums are risk dependent and separate

premiums have to be paid for spouses and

children. Although several reforms have been

made, the current legal framework, which allows

people on higher incomes, civil servants and the

self-employed to opt out of SHI, undermines the

risk- and income-based solidarity principle in

health care (Busse et al., 2017). Moreover, doctors

can charge PHI patients more than those covered

by SHI. This creates inequalities in waiting times

and accessibility for medical services, as well as

incentives for overprovision of health services to

PHI patients (see also Chapter 4.3).

Fiscal framework

Since 2015-2016, the Federal Ministry of

Finance conducted spending reviews designed

to make federal budget spending more effective.

The first cycles of spending reviews focused on the

following policy programmes: ‘support of

combined traffic (

)’, ‘support for the professional

mobility of young people seeking vocational

training in Germany’, ‘housing’, and ‘energy and

climate’. The ongoing review cycle for 2017/2018

covers the topics ‘procurement of standardised

bulk articles’ and ‘humanitarian aid and transition

aid including crisis prevention, crisis response,

peace-keeping and development cooperation’.

The Federal Government has implemented an

endorsement process to guarantee the

independence of the macroeconomic forecast

underlying the budgetary projections.

The

Commission's Opinion on Germany’s Draft

Budgetary Plan for 2017 (European Commission,

2017d) noted that there is still no procedure to

have an independent body produce or endorse the

macroeconomic forecast, as stipulated in

Regulation (EU) No 473/2013. The German

legislator adopted a law that defines the process for

the preparation of macroeconomic forecasts by the

government and the process for their endorsement

by an independent body. The law came into effect

on 4 July 2017. In September 2017, the ordinance

governing the appointment of an independent body

("Vorausschätzungsverordnung") was published.

In accordance with Regulation (EU) No 473/2013,

the "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose", an association of

several economic research institutes, is appointed

as an independent body tasked with assessing and

confirming the forecast released by the Federal

Government. The ordinance will come into effect

on 1 July 2018. As regards the compliance with the

upper limit on the general government structural

deficit of 0.5 % of nominal GDP, the Advisory

Board of the Stability Council provides a

favourable assessment in its report of December

2017 (Stability Council, 2017).

(

) Combined traffic is a special form of freight transport in

which semi-trailers, trucks or containers are transported

along the main part of the transport route by rail or by

inland waterway, while lorries are used to pick up and

deliver loaded units from the loading and unloading points.

The aim of combined traffic is to promote environmentally

friendly means of transport.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. FINANCIAL SECTOR*

Banking sector

The main challenges facing the industry are

squeezed revenues from the low-interest-rate

environment and costs incurred owing to

digitalisation and regulatory requirements.

Heavy dependence on interest income (more than

73 % of aggregate revenue) and the large number

of small institutions make German banks

particularly vulnerable to these challenges. At a

time when they have very high operating costs —

in 2016 the cost-to-income ratio exceeded 69 % —

banks may need a strategic vision to address these

challenges. This could involve adapting their

business model, considering mergers, and cutting

costs.

Maintaining positive profitability through

realising hidden reserves, increasing the

maturity transformation, and more risk-taking

does not appear to be sustainable.

The survey on

low interest rates (German

Central Bank, 2017)

indicated that structural adjustments are necessary

to maintain profitability. If interest rates stay at

current levels, small and medium-sized banks

expect their profits to fall further between 2016

and 2021. This would imply a drop of 16 % in

their return on total capital. Moreover, keeping up

with regulatory developments has a large fixed

cost component.

Profitability remains very low.

ECB data shows

that Return on Equity (RoE) stood at 0.6 % in

March 2017, amongst the lowest in the EU.

Lacklustre performances by several medium-sized

banks, low intermediation margins, and a weaker

capacity to generate non-interest income all weigh

on profits. While overall employment expanded

strongly in Germany, in the banking and insurance

sectors it fell by 10 000 in the first half of 2017,

Table 4.2.1:

according to the federal employment service.

Significant headcount reduction usually has up-

front costs and lead to cost savings only in the

medium term. The number of branches decreased

by only 14.4 % between 2007- and 2016, keeping

Germany in the top third of EU countries with the

highest branch density.

At the same time, the equity and leverage

situation remains acceptable.

Banks’ June 2017

Tier 1 ratio stands at an acceptable level (16.0 %),

slightly above the EU average (15.4 %). Yet, the

leverage ratio is the lowest in the EU in

percentage. Compared to most member states,

German capitalisation ratios increased less, as

most banks in Germany are not listed on the stock

exchange and therefore rely more on organic

capital generation instead of issuing shares. Asset

quality is very strong. End June 2017, non-

performing loans (NPL) amount to 1.6 % of total

gross loans, compared to 1.9 % twelve months

earlier and significantly below the euro area’s

average of 4.5 %. Loan-loss provisions went from

42.4 % to 43.6 % between June 2016 and June

2017.

Housing market developments do not yet give

rise to neither macro- nor financial stability

risks.

House price increases are particularly

pronounced in some cities, yet overall the process

can still be considered (the end of) a normalisation

process across time and countries (see Chapter 4.5,

IMF 2017a). Housing loans’ growth keeps on

accelerating, 4.2 % year-on-year in September

2017 compared to 3.8 % in September 2016. The

overall outstanding stock of mortgages now stands

20 % above its January 2011 value (Table 4.2.1).

Nonetheless as nominal GDP grew at a similar

pace, aggregate mortgages hover around 36 % of

Financial soundness indicators, all banks in Germany

(%)

Non-performing debt

Non-performing loans

Non-performing loans NFC

Non-performing loans HH

Coverage ratio

Loan to deposit ratio*

Tier 1 ratio

Capital adequacy ratio

Return on equity**

Return on assets**

2010

2.4

35.0

84.7

11.4

15.3

1.9

0.1

2011

1.6

40.1

83.4

11.7

15.8

2.2

0.1

2012

1.7

38.3

82.5

13.8

17.4

1.1

0.0

2013

1.8

42.8

80.1

15.2

18.7

1.3

0.1

2014

2.5

3.9

8.9

2.9

34.8

79.2

14.8

17.3

2.5

0.1

2015

2.0

3.0

6.5

2.3

36.7

78.4

15.4

17.9

1.7

0.1

2016

1.8

2.6

6.4

1.8

36.9

78.5

15.6

18.1

2.2

0.1

2017Q2

1.6

2.3

6.0

1.8

38.4

78.4

16.0

18.4

*ECB aggregated balance sheet: loans excl to gov and MFI / deposits excl from gov and MFI **For comparability only annual

values are presented

Source:

ECB

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector*

GDP over the past 6 years, which lends further

evidence to the assessment that current real estate

price increases are not primarily driven by

mortgage lending.

Graph 4.2.1:

Mortgages and corporate loans in billion EUR

and in % of GDP

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

bn EUR

% of GDP

10.5 %, while the German market grew 5.7 %,

pulled by vehicle leasing which grew 6.3 %.

Despite offering one of the lowest yields in the

euro area, German private sector deposits grew

3.6 % annually.

ECB statistics show that

corporates’ new overnight deposits bear negative

interest rates on average, i.e. -0.01 % since March

2017. Household deposits with maturities up to 2

years yield 0.28 % — the euro area’s lowest

returns. Private sector deposits grew 3.6 % yoy in

November 2017 totalling EUR 3 531 billion

(109 % of GDP – 67% coming from households,

18% from corporates and 24% from the non-bank

financial sector), which exceeds the rather low

level of private sector loans (EUR 2 777 billion)

by 23 pps. of GDP.

Overall, deposits have increased slightly above

nominal GDP growth, at times when the

German private sector debt grows at moderate

pace.

As both household and corporate

indebtedness decline slightly as percentage of

GDP, passive deleveraging continues despite

Germany's private sector debt being amongst the

lowest in the euro area.

Graph 4.2.2:

Annual change of different household loan

categories

-1

y-o-y % ch.

600

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Lending for house purchase bn EUR

Non-financial corporations bn EUR

Lending for house purchase % of GDP (rhs)

Non-financial corporations % of GDP (rhs)

Source:

ECB

Corporate loans continue to accelerate in line

with economic developments and slightly lower

credit standards.

Outstanding corporate loans

have increased by 4.1 % over the 12 months

preceding September 2017. This represents an

acceleration from 3.2 % one year earlier. The main

drivers were the services sector (including real

estate) and to a lesser extent manufacturing (e.g.

machinery, chemicals). Particularly strong credit

growth for longer maturities may indicate a more

positive outlook for companies. Still, in relative

terms, corporate loans barely amount to 30 % of

GDP (Graph 4.2.1). This stands below European

Commission fundamentals-based benchmarks for

Germany, and reflects more than a decade of

deleveraging (

New leasing contracts are on track for another

record-year.

The leasing market Europe-wide

amounted to EUR 164 billion in the first half of

2017 — out of which EUR 59 billion stemmed

from Germany. Leasing in Europe grew by

(

) Fundamental-based benchmarks are derived from

regressions capturing the main determinants of credit

growth and taking into account a given initial stock of debt.

See also European Commission (2017), "Benchmarks for

the assessment of private debt", Note for the Economic

Policy Committee"

-2

Total private

Households

Non-financial corporations

Mortgage credit

Source:

ECB

The economy is strongly financed through own

funds, while both debt and equity finance is

below EU average.

Unlike companies in other big

member states that rely more on capital markets,

the classic German

Mittelstand

(medium-sized

enterprises) relies more on internally generated

funds as evidenced by the slightly above EU-

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector*

average gross operating surplus (25.0 % and

22.7 % respectively, cf. Graph 4.2.3).

Graph 4.2.3:

Funding sources of non-financial corporations

% of GDP

venture capital remains relatively limited (see

Chapter 4.6 for more in-depth discussion).

Overall, banks display healthy stability ratios

and ample liquidity.

Cost cutting still has a long

way to go in times where challenges of digitisation

have to be addressed. Banks will have to re-orient

their business strategy to reduce dependence on

interest margins. Yet, smaller margins are

somewhat counterbalanced through growing loan

volumes as liquidity is amply available. The real

economy is thus benefiting from the high liquidity

position and competition in the sector. Only 11 %

of companies surveyed in Germany in spring 2017

cite financing difficulties as a restraining factor,

4 pp less than in 2014. Most companies do not

claim any financing constraints and agree that it's’

the least important factor hampering investment

(59 %) (Cologne Institute for Economic Research,

2017; German Savings Banks Association, DSGV,

2018).

Listed shares Debt securities

MFI loans

Gross

operating

surplus:

corporations

(1) Listed shares and debt securities represent total liabilities

based on national accounts (Eurostat), loans by Monetary

financial institutions (MFI, including banks) represent

outstanding amounts (ECB BSI). In addition, gross operating

surplus derives from national accounts.

Source:

ECB, European Commission, Invest Europe

Listed shares represent the largest funding

source to corporations.

They amount to 46.7 % of

GDP, 7.3 percentage points below EU average.

Since the turn of the century German companies

have embarked on a long-lasting deleveraging

trend. While German corporates traditionally relied

strongly on bank financing, now the importance of

bank loans is considerably below EU average

(29.8 % versus 35.8 %). After a decade of net

negative debt issuance, German companies’ net

bond stock has stabilised in early 2016. Debt

securities amount to barely 5.0 % of German GDP

versus an EU average of 12.3 %. In addition to

debt securities, many public entities and small and

medium sized enterprises in Germany rather use a

promissory note (Schuldschein), which is a

mixture between a bond and a loan. Their set-up

cost is a fraction of normal debentures as for

instance no prospectus has to be drawn up.

Between January and August already EUR 21

billion were emitted with an average interest rate

of 1.23 % compared to EUR 25.4 billion in new

emissions for 2016 adding up to a total outstanding

of EUR 86 billion (2.7 % of German GDP). 40 %

of emitters are foreign (mainly Austrian)

companies. As some notes qualify for deposit

guarantee scheme protection they are not

accounted under debt securities. The role of

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. LABOUR MARKET, EDUCATION AND SOCIAL POLICIES

Labour market*

Despite record low unemployment and high job

vacancy rates, wage growth remains moderate.

On the back of sustained economic growth,

employment continues to grow and unemployment

has dropped to record lows (see Section 1). Graph

4.3.1 displays the link between wage growth and

unemployment rate (the so-called Phillips curve)

for different periods starting from 2001. The

relationship appeared stable before the crisis,

moving leftward after, pointing to further

structural improvements in the German labour

market. In 2011-2015, this relationship became

also flatter.(

) In 2016, wages expanded at above

2% and accelerated somewhat to 2.7% in the first

three quarters of 2017 as the labour market

tightened, showing some responsiveness.

Graph 4.3.1:

Phillips curve in Germany: compensation

growth and unemployment rate

growth partly explain the moderate nature of

recent wage growth.

The level of productivity

growth impacted wages, while inflation

expectations have remained weak. Recent wage

increase have not yet compensated for the

accumulated divergences between wage and

productivity. Over 2000-2016, real labour

productivity per person increased by about 10.8 %,

while real compensation per employee only

increased by about 6.2 %. The recent increase in

immigration did not seem to have prevented strong

wage dynamics in lower wage segments

particularly affected by immigration.

The modest increases of low wages and the

higher number of hours worked in lower wage

deciles contributed to keep wage growth

subdued

before

the

minimum

wage

introduction.

Based on the recently released

Eurostat survey on the Structure of Earnings

Statistics, while the proportion of full-time

employees (40 hours per week/160 hours per

month) remained high, the proportion of

employees who worked less than 10 hours per

week rose between 2010 and 2014 from 6.7 % to

8.8 %.(

) Because of these changes in the

distribution towards mini- and midi-jobs

employees, which in general receive a lower wage

than full-time employees, it is estimated that

aggregate wage growth was 16 % lower than

without a shift in the distribution.(

) This effect

can persist if transition to regular employment is

not ensured (Galassi, 2016).

Weaker coverage of collective bargaining may

have also contained wage growth.

Over the past

30 years, coverage has declined more rapidly in

Germany than in other western European

countries, from about 85 % in 1985 to 56 % in

2014 (See European Commission, 2016b for

causes). In Germany, the sector-led bargaining

system resulted in subdued wage developments in

sectors with weaker unions – most of them dealing

with non-tradables, such as services.

(

) With the introduction of the minimum wage working hours

were reduced from 40.1 hours per week in 2014, to 36.3

hours in 2015. However, this trend stopped in 2016 (36.2

hours). (Destatis, 2017)

(

) Based on a shift-share analysis of the impact of the change

in structure of jobs on wage growth between 2010 and

2014, using the Structure of Earnings Statistics.

Compensatoin per employee

-1

Unemployment rate

2008Q3-2009Q4

2016Q1-

2001Q1-2008Q2

2011Q2-2015Q4

2010Q1-2011Q1

(1) Nominal compensation per employee is calculated as a

total compensation of employees divided by total number

of employees. The total compensation is defined as the total

remuneration, in cash or in kind, payable by an employer to

an employee in return for work done by the latter during the

accounting period and it has two components: i) Wages

and salaries payable in cash or in kind; and ii) Social

contributions payable by employers.

Source:

European Commission, Eurostat

Weak inflation expectations, falling structural

unemployment and the level of productivity

(

) A flattening of the Phillips curve suggested by the chart is

confirmed by estimates that control for cyclical

unemployment, productivity growth. In addition, the

reduction in the NAWRU exerts an independent downward

pressure on wages. Now as structural unemployment is

reduced, at the same level of unemployment wages

accelerate less than they would have done in the past.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Box 4.3.1:

Monitoring performance in light of the European Pillar of Social Rights

The European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed on 17 November 2017 by the European Parliament, the

Council and the European Commission, sets out 20 principles and rights to benefit citizens in the EU. In

light of the legacy of the crisis and changes in our societies driven by population ageing, digitalisation and

new ways of working, the Pillar serves as a compass for a renewed process of convergence towards better

working and living conditions.

Germany performs relatively well on the Social Scoreboard (

) supporting the European Pillar of

Social Rights.

Germany has high employment rates and very low unemployment.

egarding equal

opportunities in the labour market and fair working conditions, the issue of labour market segmentation

deserves continuing attention.

A number of challenges remain, such as

making it more attractive for women to

work more hours and reducing the high

gender pay gap.

Specific tax arrangements

create disincentives for second earners

(Ehegattensplitting) and low wage earners

(marginal tax rate) to work longer. Changing

the default tax combination from 2018 only

slightly adjusts the situation. Germany took

measures to address the gender pay gap by

adopting in 2017 the Act on greater wage

equality between women and men.

Companies are expected to analyse wage

developments on a regular basis, prepare a

report and undertake measures ensuring equal

pay for equal work.

GERMANY

Early leavers from education

and training (% of population

aged 18-24)

On average

Equal

On average

opportunities

Gender employment gap

and access to

Income quintile ratio (S80/S20)

On average

the labour

At risk of poverty or social

Better than average

market

exclusion (in %)

Youth NEET (% of total

population aged 15-24)

Good but to monitor

Best performers

On average

Dynamic

labour

markets and

fair working

conditions

Employment rate (%

population aged 20-64)

Unemployment rate (%

population aged 15-74)

GDHI per capita growth

Germany has with 6.8 % (November 2017)

one of the lowest youth unemployment

rates in Europe.

The German dual system of

vocational education and training provides an

excellent approach to skill development; in

particular initial vocational education and

Individuals' level of digital skills

Better than average

training. Thanks to this system the country

Members States' are classified according to a statistical methodology agreed with

enjoys low youth unemployment and provides

the EMCO and SPC Committees. The methodology looks jointly at levels and changes

of the indicators in comparison with the respective EU averages, and classifies

young people with high skill levels. About 50

Member States in seven categories (from "best performers" to "critical situations").

percent of all school-leavers attend vocational

For instance, a country can be flagged as "better than average" if the level of the

training provided by companies, reach high

indicator is close to EU average, but it is improving fast. For methodological details,

please consult the draft Joint Employment Report 2018, COM (2017) 674 final.

skills level allowing companies to acquire

NEET: neither in employment nor in education or training; GDHI: gross disposable

skilled staff. Overall, vocational integration

household income

benefits and services for young people are

provided both by the Federal Government and by the

Länder

and local authorities. Job centres, employment

agencies and youth welfare offices, providing social services, cooperate in order to provide young people

with one-stop support. Germany also has various initiatives that all share the goal of helping young people to

transit successfully from school to vocational training or academic study and subsequently into employment.

Impact of social transfers

(other than pensions) on

On average

poverty reduction

Social

Children aged less than 3 years

On average

protection

in formal childcare

and inclusion

Self-reported unmet need for

Better than average

medical care

The Social Scoreboard includes 14 headline indicators, of which 12 are currently used to compare Member States

performance. The indicators "participants in active labour market policies per 100 persons wanting to work" and

"compensation of employees per hour worked (in EUR)" are not used due to technical concerns by Member States.

Possible alternatives will be discussed in the relevant Committees. GDHI: gross disposable household income.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Box 4.3.2:

Policy highlights: The introduction of the general minimum wage

Germany introduced on 1 January 2015 a statutory general minimum wage of 8.50 EUR per hour.

This was seen also as a response by German legislators to the continued erosion of the collective bargaining

system and declining bargaining coverage, which resulted in a high share of low paid workers. Now a

commission (Mindestlohnkommission), which represents employers and employees, and includes labour

market researchers as observers, is responsible for recommending adjustments of the minimum wage, based

on comprehensive analysis of the labour market. The government either accepts the recommendation or

leaves the minimum wage unchanged. The minimum wage was first increased as of 1 January 2017 to 8.84

euros, where the Commission took into account in particular recent developments of collectively agreed

wages. In general the minimum wage is applicable in all branches of activity and all regions, with exceptions

for apprentices, certain interns, people aged below 18 years and long-term unemployed people during their

first six months of employment. Temporarily further exemptions were allowed for collectively agreed

sectoral minimum wage floors, which incentivised collective bargaining and may have allowed mitigating

negative employment consequences. In addition to the statutory general minimum wage, branch-specific

minimum wages may be applied.

Fears that the introduction of the minimum wage would lead to significant employment losses have

not materialised.

Helped by the expansion phase of the business cycle, employment creation remained

strongly positive, even in East Germany where wage increases were particularly pronounced due to the low

initial wage level. Only so-called mini-jobs (marginal part-time employment) declined noticeably at the start

of 2015. Many of these lost mini-jobs were upgraded to regular, socially insured employment. An evaluation

of the effects of the minimum wage is planned for 2020.

Beyond workers's wages, work satisfaction also improved.

The introduction helped to increase lower

wages at the bottom of the distribution, as expected. Moreover, it also incentivised employers to invest in

human capital, improve working conditions, and thus increased employees' satisfaction at the workplace

(Pusch and Rehm, 2017)

Some aspects of the minimum wage setting may merit fine-tuning.

Continuous assessment of the impact

of the minimum wage remains an important task for the Commission, and the system may be tested when

the economic cycle will worsen. In addition, it is not clear whether the resources available for enforcing the

minimum wage are adequate to tackle non-enforcement. Out of the 27,323 investigations conducted in the

first half of 2017, about 10 % (2,433) found non-compliance, primarily in construction and the hospitality

industry. Early 2016, still a significant number of workers were earning below the minimum wage, with

estimations ranging from 750 000 workers based on a survey of firms (Destatis, 2017) to nearly 2 million

workers based on the SOEP survey of individuals (Burauel et al, 2017).

As a result, service sector wages are the lowest

in the EU relative to manufacturing wages

(80 % in Germany, 91 % in the euro area, 103 % in

the EU-28). Moreover, while collective

agreements could have been extended, thereby

partly remedying the reduction in the coverage of

original agreements, this was done only a very few

cases. Although the law introducing the general

minimum wage provided for an easing of the

conditions for general extensions(

), the number

of general extensions remained similar to that in

previous years, with 447 extensions in July 2017.

(Federal Ministry for Labour and Social Affairs,

2017b)

(

) The condition for the original agreement to cover 50 % of

employees in the sector was abolished.

The introduction of the statutory general

minimum wage helped to increase lower wages.

The introduction of the statutory general minimum

wage in 2015 increased wages at the bottom of the

distribution, as expected (see Box 4.3.2).

The current round of wage negotiations has a

strong focus on working time flexibility, on top

of wage increases.

The 2017-2018 wage

negotiation round covers 9.7 million employees in

the metal and electronics industries, the civil

service, and the construction industry. IG Metall,

the trade union of workers in the metal and

electronics industries called at the start of the

negotiations for the possibility of opting for a 28-

hour working week rather than a 35-hour one. This

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

was also the outcome of the ‘choice’ model agreed

between Deutsche Bahn and trade unions, which

allowed employees to choose between a wage rise

of 2.6 %, six more days of annual leave, or a one-

hour reduction in weekly working hours (

External price competitiveness remains strong.

As a result of wage growth and moderate

productivity gains, the nominal unit labour cost

increased 1.7 % in the first three quarters of 2017,

above that in the euro area, indicating a slight loss

in the external competitive position. As inflation

rose, real earnings growth decelerated, from 1.8 %

in 2016 as a whole to 0.7 % in Q3 2017. (Graph

4.3.2)

Graph 4.3.2:

Trends in labour costs and its components

average of 23.1 %). As a result, Germany has a

very wide gender pay gap(

). To reduce the

gender pay gap, the Parliament adopted a law to

promote transparency in wage structures between

women and men in March 2017. Under this law,

companies with over 500 employees are expected

to assess wage developments regularly, report on

them, and take action to make sure that women and

men earn equal pay for equal work.

Disincentives to working longer hours, coupled

with the lack of sufficient childcare and all-day

school facilities are key reasons for women’s

lower attachment to the labour market.

Germany has one of the highest tax wedges (

) for

low earners, which creates disincentives to

working or to working longer hours. About 60 %

of low earners in 2015 were women (Kalina and

Weinkopf, 2017). The impact of parenthood on

employment is also higher in Germany: the

employment rate of women with children under 6

is 16.1 pp. lower than that of women without

children, versus an EU average of 8.8 pp. (See also

Box 4.3.1)

With increased demand for childcare and more

places in all-day schools, it remains key to

improve quality in early childhood education

and care.

In 2015, 97.4 % of 4 to 6-year-olds'

were enrolled in early childhood education and

care establishments. The rate is markedly lower for

the under-threes. The participation rate in daycare

of school children up to 11 rose from 10.6% to

16.1% between 2006 and 2015, while the

participation rate in all-day schools rose from 9.8%

to 39 % (Conference of Ministers of Culture,

2016). However, in early childhood education and

care alone, unsatisfied demand and demographic

changes necessitate more than 600 000 additional

places until 2025 for children up to school age

(

German Youth Institute,

2017). Issues persist around

service quality and flexibility. In 2017, additional

(

) In 2015, the unadjusted gender pay gap was 22% as

compared with an EU average of 16.3%. Much of this

disparity can be explained by working time, economic

activity and occupation (men work longer hours, in better

paid NACE sectors and occupations, and take fewer career

breaks compared with women). However, an unexplained

gender pay gap of 7.7% remains (Boll et al., 2016).

(

) The tax wedge on labour represents the difference between

the total labour cost of employing a worker and the

worker’s net earnings. It is defined as personal income tax

and employer and employee social security contributions

(net of family benefits) as a percentage of total labour costs

(the wage and employer social security contributions).

Rate of change y-o-y (%)

-2

-4

-6

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17*18*19*

Inflation (GDP deflator growth)

Real compensation per employee

Productivity contribution (negative sign)

Nominal unit labour cost

ULC in Euro Area

* Forecast values taken from European Commission autumn

2017 Forecast

Source:

European Commission

A tight labour market and ageing population

call for fully utilising the labour force.

Vacancies registered by the public employment

service have been rising steadily, reaching 770 000

by November 2017. Demographic ageing means

that cohorts entering the labour market are smaller

and immigration can only partially offset this trend

(see also Section 4.4). At the same time, there was

still substantial long-term unemployment 862 000

in November 2017, (for further discussion see also

European Commission, 2017c). The high female

part-time employment rate is accompanied by the

second highest gender gap in part-time

employment (37.5 % as compared with an EU

(

) 56 % of employees have opted for more annual leave, 2 %

for shorter working hours and 42 % for higher wages.

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

financing of EUR 1.1 billion was approved for

additional places. The Government also announced

that a ‘quality development law’ was to be drawn

up.

Mini-jobs provide flexible arrangements for

people who want to work a limited number of

hours, but also create lock-in effects.

The total

number of mini-jobs remained around 7.5 million.

The number of people whose only job was a mini

job fell from 5.1 million in 2014 to 4.8 million in

2017, while the number of those with a mini-job as

their second job rose from 2.0 million in 2010 to

2.7 million in 2017. Nearly half of people with

mini-jobs are either of pensionable age or students,

and the majority are women. This seems to suggest

that mini-jobs have not led to an ever increasing

erosion of standard employment. However, there

appear to be strong lock-in effects. High marginal

tax rates just above the earnings threshold of

EUR 450 yield strong threshold effects and in

2016 more than 23 % of mini-jobbers earned

exactly EUR 450. Interaction with the tax system

(exemptions for secondary jobs, tax treatment of

second earners) further increases lock-in effects.

People with a migrant background are

generally less well integrated into the labour

market, notably to limited language skills and

lower qualifications.

The employment rate of

nationals of other EU countries rose by 1.5 pp.

between 2015 and 2016, reaching 78.2 %, as they

move to Germany to take up employment.

However, the same does not hold for non-EU

migrants. The employment rate of non-EU

nationals fell by almost 3 pp between 2015 and

2016. It is below the EU average (54.2 % v

56.5 %) and significantly below the employment

rate of German nationals (26.5 pp. lower; see

Graph 4.3.3). The main reason for this is the large

inflow of non-labour migrants who face

considerable difficulties in finding jobs. Women

are particularly affected with an employment rate

of 44.7 %: Lack of language skills together with

lower qualifications seem to be among the main

reasons for this. Getting non-EU nationals into

jobs will thus continue to pose a lasting challenge

(Bähr et al., 2017, Gürtzgen et al., 2017).

While overall youth unemployment in Germany

is one of the lowest in the EU, young people

with a migrant background face challenges.

This is also reflected in the significantly higher

NEET (young people neither in education,

employment or training, aged 15-24) rate of third

country nationals as compared to that of nationals

(21.1% vs 5%). Moreover, the employment

situation of native-born with foreign born parents

(i.e.

second-generation)

also

unfavourable. ( )The proportion of early leavers

from education and training among foreign-born

students (23.2 %) was almost three times that of

students born in Germany (8.2 %) in 2016.

Graph 4.3.3:

Employment rate by citizenship

% of

population

20-64

Nationals

EU28 mobile workers

Third countries

(1) Employment rates of people aged 20-64 ( percentage of

population), non-seasonally adjusted

Source:

Eurostat

While the number of newly-arrived asylum

seekers has fallen, integrating the large number

of young refugees into education and work

represents a long-term challenge.

The total

number of newly-arrived asylum seekers

(according to registrations in the EASY-system)

fell strongly in 2017 to an estimated 198 000

(Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, 2018),

from about 890 000 in 2015. Various stakeholders

ranging from the Federal Government, the

Länder

and local governments to the Federal Office for

Migration and Refugees (BAMF), public

employment services, social partners, companies

and foundations took important measures in 2017

aimed to help the new arrivals to find work, with

an expanded range of integration courses focusing

on career guidance and vocational training.

(

) In 2014, native born with foreign born parents had lower

employment rate (56.2%) by around 19.6 % points than

native-born without a migrant background (75.8%)

(Eurostat, lfso_14lel).

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

(Federal Ministry of Education and Research,

2017) Considering difficulties in labour market

integration, demand for training and active labour

market policies is expected to remain strong in

2018.

Social policy*

overall have a high at-risk of poverty rate.

Germany also performs well for the indicators

related to adequacy of minimum income benefits,

which play a major role as the last safety net.

Graph 4.3.4:

Gini coefficient and poverty risk

0,36

0,34

0,32

0,3

0,28

0,26

0,24

0,22

0,2

The steady rise in the at-risk of poverty rate

and inequality seen since the crisis slightly

reversed.

In 2016, the percentage of the

population at risk of poverty or social exclusion

continued to fall, owing to improvements in all of

its three components. The at-risk of poverty rate

has fallen slightly, from 16.7 % to 16.5 %, the first

decline since the crisis. Following a steady

increase since the crisis, in-work poverty also fell

slightly in 2016. However, this improvement

remains modest (and only benefits men, as in-work

poverty among women increased further). Further

improvements are held back by disincentives to

work longer (second earners, mini-jobs lock-in

effect, see above) and the moderate wage dynamic.

Positive economic and labour market

developments are only recently accompanied by

reduced income inequality.

In 2016, the richest

20 % of households had 4.6 times as much income

as the poorest 20 %, a decline of 0.2 from the

previous year. Germany currently lies somewhere

in the middle of the EU countries, according to the

Gini index of equivalised disposable income (

However, income inequality worsened in the early

2000s, and the Gini coefficient subsequently

hovered around this higher level (see Graph 4.3.4).

The recent declines in inequality and poverty risk

may be explained by the positive labour market

developments, plus the new national minimum

wage. Improvements in the income position of low

income households have helped reduce rising

disposable income inequality. Germany ranks well

above or close to EU average for indicators related

to coverage and adequacy of unemployment

benefits.(

) Still, duration for a one year work

record is comparatively low and unemployed

(

) The Gini coefficient of equivalised disposable income

takes values between 0 and 1 and is a measure of equal or

unequal distribution. Higher values show a higher level of

inequality.

(

) According to the benchmarking exercise in the area of

unemployment benefits and active labour market policies

conducted within the EMCO Committee. See the draft

Joint Employment Report 2018 for details.

13*

At risk of poverty rate (SOEP)

At risk of poverty rate (SILC)

Gini (SOEP, rhs)

Gini (SILC, rhs)

* Break in time series in SOEP due to a change in sampling

methods

** Values take owner-occupied living space into account

1) At risk of poverty rate: proportion of people with an

equivalised net income below 60 % of the median income

Source:

Federal Ministry for Labour and Social Affairs, 2017

The declining replacement rate in the statutory

first pillar has a negative effect on pension

adequacy and increases the risk of poverty in

old age.

At 17.6 % in 2016, the risk of poverty in

old age (i.e. above 65) was above the EU average

of 14.7 % and higher than the average for the total

population (16.5 %). The risk of poverty in old age

applies particularly to former low-wage earners or

people with atypical jobs, self-employed people

without employees or those with an interrupted

employment history (temporary agency workers).

Moreover, Germany has the second widest gender

pension gap in the EU (45.7 %). In addition, the

replacement rate of the statutory pension scheme is

expected to decline (see Chapter 4.4). In response,

in June 2017 the Bundestag enacted three bills on

the pension reform which also address old-age

poverty. They include tax credits for low earners,

an increase in basic public allowances and

additional incentives for employers offering

occupational pension schemes. Even if fiscal

sustainability risks are currently low in Germany,

making it more attractive to work more and longer,

can help increase old-age income, boost potential

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

output, improve the fiscal outlook, and reduce the

need to save for retirement.

Self-employed people may be particularly at

risk of old age poverty as a result of limited

social protection.

Those self-employed people

who do not have compulsory pension schemes for

the free professions and who do not have

considerable personal means have little protection

on retirement. Inadequate pension entitlements for

the self-employed will make them dependent on

means-tested pension supplements in old age or if

their earnings capacity is reduced (Bäcker, 2014;

Geyer, 2014; Brettschneider and Klammer, 2016).

Former self-employed people already account for a

high share of recipients of this benefit (Federal

Ministry for Labour and Social Affairs, 2017c).

The young are more vulnerable than the elderly

in some respects.

In 2016, the material

deprivation rate of people over 65 was

considerably lower, at 7.0 %, than that of children

below 18 (10.6 %). Persistent generational

inequalities may have a severe impact on

intergenerational fairness. (European Commission,

2017e). Moreover, Germany a high gap in the EU

between people with disabilities and those without

as regards being at risk of poverty or social

exclusion (15.6 pps. vs the EU average of

10.1 pps. The rising cost of housing has a

considerable impact on the poor. In 2016, despite

an overall declining trend, the housing cost

overburden rate of people at risk of poverty was

still significantly above the EU average (15.6 %

vs. 11.1 %) .

Social outcomes for migrants and their children

remain a concern.

Foreign workers have not

benefited from the recent fall in the rate of in-work

poverty. Their poverty risk rose from 16.8 % in

2015 to 17.7 % in 2016, while the situation

improved for German workers (falling from 8.8 %

to 8.4 %). Although the poverty risk for children of

foreign nationals improved considerably in 2016

(20.9 %, vs. 23.5 % in 2015), they are still at a

much higher risk than the children of German

parents (14.5 %, vs 13.7 % in 2015).

Access to health remains good, though

inequalities persist between regions and groups.

While operating at high cost and with certain

inequalities in access (see Section 4.1.), unmet

medical needs for medical care are very low in

Germany (0.5 % of the population) and the density

of physicians, nurses and hospitals in Germany is

among the highest in the EU. However, Germany

is among the four OECD countries with the largest

regional differences in the number of hospital beds

per 10 000 inhabitants (OECD, 2016d). National

data show that some rural areas, particularly in the

eastern

Länder

are short of doctors, while some

regions in the west lack enough nurses. Despite the

growing number of nursing graduates, national

studies predict considerable future shortages in the

profession, owing to demographic ageing.

Education and skills

Spending on education remains below the EU

average and the government target with

possible negative implications for potential

growth.

Public expenditure on education remained

at flat as a share of GDP in 2015 and below the EU

average (see Section 4.5). This gives cause for

concern in view of the numerous new challenges,

including the integration of newly arrived

migrants, growing student numbers and

digitisation. Distribution constraints on public

spending in education due limited cooperation

possibilities between central and federal level

remain largely in place; despite a change in the

Base Law. Support from the federal government

due to the constitutional changes, in force since

June 2017, are at present restricted to investments

in school infrastructure for financially weak

municipalities (Federal Ministry for Economic

Affairs and Energy, 2017a).

Educational outcomes are stable overall but

remain considerably influenced by socio-

economic background.

According to the 2015

OECD Programme for International Student

Assessment (PISA), the share of top performers in

the highest socio-economic quartile is above the

OECD average in science, mathematics and

reading, while the share of weak performers in that

group is below average. In science, the difference

in the rate of low achievers between the lowest and

highest social quartiles is 23 pp., equivalent to a

difference of almost 3 years of schooling(

While these results mark an improvement in the

equity of the German education system since PISA

(

) The difference between mean scores equals 103 score

points; a score difference of 38 points is associated with 1

year of schooling.

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

2006 (OECD, 2016b), they show that considerable

disparities remain. A national survey on linguistic

and mathematical competences of 4

graders

marks little progress in lessening the influence of

socioeconomic factors on educational success

compared to earlier studies (Institute for

Educational Quality Improvement, 2017).

There is a wide performance gap between

native-born and foreign-born students.

In PISA

2015 low performance in science was 11.8 % for

children without a migrant background versus

42.2 % for immigrants. Children of immigrants

(second generation) closed the gap only partially at

31.1 % (European Commission, 2016c). This is of

concern given the very substantial share of second

generation students in Germany (13.2 % compared

to 6.5 % across the EU).

Renewing the teaching workforce raises

challenges.

In Germany, 45 % of primary and

secondary teachers are aged 50 or above,

compared with 35 % in the rest of the EU. The

necessary replacement of retired teachers has

already led to general supply gaps in some regions

and subject areas such as mathematics and

sciences (Standing Conference of the Ministers of

Education and Cultural Affairs, 2013). To alleviate

the situation, pensioned teachers are reactivated,

teachers from abroad are recruited and more and

more career changers are being accepted into the

profession, often without prior pedagogical

training but with tailored accompanying support

after they take up teaching(

). Flexible provisions

are necessary to address the growing demand for

teachers with even higher than expected student

numbers (Klemm and Zorn, 2017), but they do not

provide a permanent solution. Commonly agreed

standards for career changers and measures to

increase the attractiveness of the teaching

profession might contribute to further raise the

teacher supply.

University education is becoming more

widespread but is more difficult to accomplish

for students with a migrant background.

The

rate of people obtaining a tertiary degree has

reached 33.2 % in 2016(

). Upward mobility, i.e.

(

) Estimates find that this concern up to 10 % of all teachers

hired in 2016, and in some federal states as much as one

third of newly hired primary teachers (BDK, 2017).

( ) The national target of 42%, which includes ISCED level 4

qualifications, has been passed and reached 46.8 % in 2016

young people earning tertiary degrees, above the

education level of their parents, is lower in

Germany than the OECD average. This might be

partially explained by the traditionally strong

prevalence of Vocational Education and Training

(VET) (OECD, 2016b) and its good employment

prospects. Students with a migrant background

face much bigger hurdles to complete their tertiary

studies: they experience dropout rates of 43 %

versus 29 % for the student population without a

migrant background (Ebert and Heublein, 2017).

Employment rates for VET graduates continue

to be high but fewer people are choosing this

education path.

The proportion of Germany’s

upper secondary VET students (ISCED 3) slightly

decreased in 2015 to 46.8 %, just below the EU

average of 47.3 %. The employment rate of recent

VET graduates in 2016 was at 90.1 % markedly

higher than the EU average of 75 %. In 2016, the

number of unfilled apprenticeship positions

registered by the Federal Employment Agency

reached a new record high of 43 500, while 20 600

registered applicants did not find a suitable

apprenticeship. This points to a significant

mismatch in qualifications and at sectoral and

regional levels (Federal Ministry of Education and

Research, 2017). Efforts to better advertise the

VET system include orientation and information

campaigns at secondary schools, outreach to

higher education dropouts and improvements in

VET training, for example, through experience

abroad. Digitalisation in VET focuses on inter-

company vocational training, competence centres

speeding-up the digitalisation in training and

funding for digital equipment of SMEs.

Adult learning is below the EU average and

remains a particular challenge for the low-

skilled.

Adult participation in learning remained at

8.5 % in 2016, practically unchanged and below

the EU average of 10.8 %. Reaching the low-

skilled and unskilled, the long-term unemployed

and older people is especially difficult. In the

context of the Upskilling Pathways: New

Opportunities for Adults recommendation

(European Commission, 2016d) several steps are

being undertaken in Germany to address the low-

skilled adult population of 7.5 million adults —

(Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy,

2017a).

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

many of them in employment — who lack basic

reading and writing skills (Grotlüschen, 2016).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.4. BEYOND THE AGGREGATE: AGEING, INEQUALITY AND

SAVINGS*

Inequality

Income inequality increased in Germany in the

early 2000s, and wealth inequality is high in

international comparison.

These facts are

summarised in the recent Poverty and Wealth

Report and were largely confirmed by a previous

country report and an in-depth review which

argued that high income inequality may result in a

high overall propensity to save (Federal Ministry

for Labour and Social Affairs, 2017; European

Commission, 2017c and 2014a).

Rising inequality may be linked to demographic

and labour market changes.

The real incomes of

the lowest income decile fell by 8 % between 1991

and 2014, owing to the expansion of the low wage

sector, population ageing and lagging adjustments

of transfers (Grabka and Goebel, 2017). Structural

changes in the labour market, such as the increase

in low wage employment, atypical employment,

and decreasing unionisation, contributed to

divergent real wage developments (Federal

Ministry for Labour and Social Affairs, 2017).

However, this result needs to be seen in the light of

labour market reforms and other factors which

changed the composition of the employed labour

force during the period in question (

). With the

improved employment rate, inequality of earned

income among the whole population has decreased

from 2005 onwards, and has even gone down

below the level of the year 2000 (Felbermayer et

al., 2016).

Theoretical literature suggests that inequality

may

have

dampening

effect

macroeconomic developments.

The theoretical

literature on the impact of inequality on

macroeconomic developments has identified

several channels: i) the growth channel: high

income inequality implies that a large proportion

of income is channelled to high-income groups,

which have a higher propensity to save. This could

dampen private consumption and consequently

growth; ii) the incentive channel: high income

inequality increases the incentives for low-income

groups to achieve higher income gains, which

could have a positive effect on productivity

(Mirrlees, 1971; Lazear and Rosen, 1981); iii) the

human capital channel: high income inequality

(

) For instance, employment grew from 39 million in 2005 to

43 million people in 2014.

reduces opportunities for private investment in

education. This could reduce the human capital

base in the medium to long run, with a

corresponding negative effect on productivity

(Galor and Zeira, 1993).

Recent empirical evidence for Germany is

consistent with the theoretical literature

suggesting that inequality may have an effect on

growth, its components and the trade

balances. (

)

Recent empirical studies by the

OECD find a negative impact of income inequality

on growth (Cingano, 2014; OECD, 2015). (

) The

study by Albig et al (2017) hints at the possibility

that Germany's cumulative real GDP growth rate

over 1991-2015 could have been higher if income

inequality had stayed constant. The study identifies

the human capital channel as the main driver of

this result, whose negative impact kicks in with a

delay of one decade. This illustrates the case for

timely anticipatory policy action, especially in the

field of equality of opportunity in education (see

Chapter 4.3). Furthermore, the share of

consumption in disposable household income

decreases substantially with increasing monthly

income, suggesting that there is a significant

difference in savings rates across the income

distribution (

). The study by Albig et al (2017)

indicates that the savings rate might have risen

more and that private consumption was somewhat

weaker between 1991 and 2015 compared to the

case where the Gini coefficient had remained

constant. It also points out that the trade and

current account surplus may have increased due to

a stronger effect of rising inequality on imports

than on exports.

Population ageing

As a result of increasing life expectancy and

lower birth rates, the share of elderly people in

the population has increased.

Apart from the

standard population ageing, there are some specific

features characterising the German age

(

) There is no general consensus in the literature about the

direction or the size of the effect of inequality on growth.

For more details, see the meta-analysis described in Neves

et al. (2016).

(

) For a review of these studies, see Federal Ministry for

Economic Affairs and Energy (2017b).

(

) See also Brenke and Wagner (2013), who show that the

savings rate for the first quartile of the income distribution

is significantly lower than that for the fourth quartile, and

that this gap widened significantly over 1995-2007.

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4.4. Beyond the aggregate: ageing, inequality and savings*

distribution. First, there is the large group of 'baby-

boomers' born between the mid-1950s and mid-

1960s. Second, the birth cohort following the

'baby-boomers' (born since the mid-1970s) had

particularly low levels of births per year.

The consequences of this pattern are significant

for the German economy and the current

account.

The 'baby-boomers' are currently in their

prime working age, where work income and

savings are highest. However, when most of this

group reaches pensionable age, the German labour

force will shrink substantially, while the group of

pensioners will grow strongly. This cohort effect

of the 'baby-boomers' will also affect

macroeconomic variables, such as overall savings,

the sum of income tax payments (

), and overall

social security contributions.

According to economic theory, demographics

are currently contributing to the German

surplus, but should lower savings in the long

run, thereby balancing the current account.

Anticipation of ageing can be a key driver of

higher savings. This may help explain the very

high German current account surplus. However,

the current account increase implied by theory

(e.g. Buiter, 1981; Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1995) is

always temporary. In particular, the current

account position should increase when larger

cohorts pass through high saving stages of the life

cycle and are faced with 'ageing news' (positive

cohort effect). It should then decrease when a

larger proportion of the population grows older

and their savings rate is lower (negative cohort

effect).

Moreover, population ageing also provides a

rationale for Germans to invest a significant

share of savings abroad.

An ageing population

may also be affecting domestic investment

patterns, resulting in rather subdued investment

growth at home and higher investment abroad. The

prospect of shrinking domestic labour supply and

waning domestic demand are depressing returns on

domestic investment. Yields on assets abroad are

likely to be higher, owing to a more favourable age

structure (e.g. Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 2003). This

(

) The effect on income taxes is aggravated by the transition

in the tax treatment of pension payments towards taxing

them when paid out. For details, see Beznoska and Hentze;

2016.

theoretical pattern leads to a positive and

increasing NIIP, as can be observed in the German

case.

Graph 4.4.1:

Dependency ratios (2036 population forecast)

and savings rates of DE

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

Germany

2006

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

Old age dependency ratio 65+

Old age dependency ratio 70+

Savings rate (rhs)

Source:

Eurostat

However, there seem to be also other factors at

play that influence the structurally high

German saving rate.

German saving rates have

recently fluctuated at around 15 to 17 %,

significantly above the rates of most other

European countries. This is sometimes explained

by a specific German propensity to save (European

Commission, 2014a). Moreover, elderly and young

households in Germany depart from economic

theory in that they do not dissave on average (see

Graph 4.4.2). The result is known as the ‘German

savings puzzle’ (see, for instance, Belke et al.,

2015; Boersch-Supan et al., 2001) (

), which

contrasts with Modigliani's standard economic

theory of the life-cycle model of income and

consumption smoothing (Ando and Modigliani,

1963). As a result, the adjusted German version of

the life cycle savings pattern appears structurally

higher across all age cohorts than what one would

expect in the light of standard theory.

(

) The pattern characteristic of the 'German savings puzzle'

can, however, be observed in some other EU member states

as well.

2036

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4.4. Beyond the aggregate: ageing, inequality and savings*

Graph 4.4.2:

Savings rates by age groups – measured in

2015

most notably by the ‘Riester-Rente’ which was

introduced in 2002. Those reforms may also have

pushed up private savings, as they strongly

incentivised old-age provision. Moreover they

focus on safe, but low-yielding assets, which are to

a large extent sourced from abroad (European

Commission, 2016b). Additionally, the low

interest rate environment might also be a reason

for private households to further increase their

savings in order to achieve a certain nominal

amount ('nominal illusion').

Several studies have focused on empirically

identifying the present impact of demographics

on the current account (

), but results vary

depending on the methodology applied.

In the

Commission’s 'current account norm' model (

)

(European Commission, 2017a) the overall current

account level that can be empirically attributed to

country-specific factors yields a German surplus of

2.5 % for 2016, which is significantly below the

actual level. In contrast, the IMF’s model estimates

a German current account surplus for 2016 of

about 4.5 % of GDP (IMF, 2017b). Interestingly,

the contribution of factors other than demographics

to the ‘estimated current account norm’ is roughly

the same (1.6 pps.), but the two models differ

substantially in the estimation of the demographic

impact (3 pps. for the IMF vs 1.1 pps. in the

Commission model).

In the long run, empirical models suggest that

the German current account balance is likely to

become negative as a result of population

ageing.

In an overlapping generation’s model,

Busl et al. (2012) estimate that the cohort effect of

the 'baby-boomers' being in their prime saving age

will make a positive contribution to the German

current account surplus until 2030. However, in

the longer term, large-scale transitions from

working to retirement age will start to bring down

the aggregate saving rate and, thus balance the

current account. According to ZEW, this negative

cohort effect will yield a German current account

deficit of 2 % of GDP by 2033.

(

) Following the work of Chinn and Prasad (2003), several

authors, including Phillips at al. (2013), Lane and Milesi-

Ferretti (2012), Salto and Turrini (2010), Lee et al. (2008),

and Gruber and Kamin (2007), have contributed.

(

) The current account 'norm' benchmark is derived from

regressions capturing the main fundamental determinants

of the saving-investment balance (e.g. demographics,

resources), as well as policy factors and global financial

conditions.

18 - 25

25 - 35

35 - 45

45 - 55

55 - 65

65 - 70

70 and above

approx savings rate

Source:

European Commissions' calculation, based on

Destatis, continuous household budget survey (Laufende

Wirtschaftsrechnungen)

Additionally, pension adequacy might be at risk

for the 'baby boomers' and subsequent

generations, thereby contributing to stronger

precautionary savings.

As the German public

pension system is designed as a pay-as-you-go

system (

) (

), ageing will challenge the system's’

overall sustainability (

), which may affect old-

age poverty (see Chapter 4.3). In turn, this is likely

to encourage precautionary savings to compensate

for the expected reduction in old-age income.

Employment-specific second pillar pensions may

compensate to some extent (by contributing to

future incomes). However, their impact is

constrained because it is not mandatory for firms

to have them or for workers to enrol. Additionally,

they are less attractive to mobile workers who

change employers.

The federal government has also provided

incentives for making additional precautionary

savings.

To compensate for the lower pension

level, private pension savings were encouraged;

(

) In a ‘pay as you go’ system, the contributions of the

working-age population pay for pensions directly.

(

) According to Bloom et al., 2007, econometric analysis

shows that households' savings are lower in countries with

pay-as-you-go pension schemes and higher in those with

capital-based schemes.

(

) According to European Commission’s projections, ageing-

related costs are expected to increase by around 4.2 pps. of

GDP between 2016 and 2070 (European Commission,

2018).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. INVESTMENT

Despite the recent pick-up in investment

growth, important asset types still need to catch

up.

Despite a strong economic performance in the

wake of the crisis, Germany’s capital stock

increased much more slowly than that of the rest of

the EU-15, with potentially negative effects on the

long-term potential growth (Graph 4.5.1). As

regards the various asset types, investment in

machinery and equipment has started to respond to

the economic upswing; investment in intellectual

property products has grown consistently and is

gradually increasing in importance; and investment

in residential construction is picking up too,

although supply is still lagging behind housing

needs in certain areas. On the other hand,

investment in other construction is stagnating,

possibly affecting essential infrastructure.

Graph 4.5.1:

Capital stock

120

110

100

2010=100

is stagnating. Investment in intangible assets has

continued to gain importance on aggregate, but

disparities across sectors and firm sizes are

persistent. The private investment share of GDP

seems to be rising mainly on account of housing

investment, driven by both real increases and price

inflation (Graph 4.5.2).

Graph 4.5.2:

Gross fixed capital formation in the private

sector

% of GDP

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Equipment

Housing

NRC

Intang. and

oth. assets

Total (rhs)

91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

EU 15 w.o. DE

Source:

Destatis, European Commission

Index 2010=100

Source:

European Commission

Private investment development*

Private investment has picked up and is

expected to grow briskly in the short to medium

term, but business investment intensity remains

weak.

Investment in machinery and equipment has

posted strong real increases in the course of 2017

reacting to record high orders, high capacity-

utilisation rates and a favourable outlook. It has

reached pre-crisis levels, but its intensity remains

subdued against the backdrop of favourable

financing conditions and declining relative prices

for machinery and equipment. On the other hand

investment in non-residential construction (NRC)

Private investment in intangible assets appears

to be concentrated in some sectors and

restrained in others.

Investment in intangible

assets(

) is crucial to promoting productivity

growth (Thum et al., 2017). This includes

investment in R&D and software, and vocational

and life-long learning. A particular need is

investment in digital skills, essential for innovation

and the dissemination of technology. While large

technology-intensive corporations, particularly in

the automotive sector, are investing in intangible

assets, the services sector and small and-medium-

sized enterprises (SMEs) are lagging behind by

comparison with other advanced economies

(OECD, 2016c). Investment appears to be strongly

concentrated in only a few sectors, with often

fewer than half of the companies in those sectors

investing in intangible assets (Belitz et al., 2017).

(

) The System of National Accounts (SNA) currently captures

R&D, mineral exploration, computer software and

databases, entertainment, literary and artistic originals

under the asset category "intellectual property products",

while the broader term "intangible assets", synonymously

termed also "knowledge based capital", can include also

assets which are not captured by the SNA.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Investment

Furthermore, recent data suggest that the share of

SMEs in business R&D expenditure has been

gradually declining in recent years (See also

Section 4.6). All this points towards a considerable

sector and company-size specific concentration of

investment in intangible assets and possibly

underinvestment in SMEs and other sectors, such

as services, which can dampen potential growth.

The increasing average age of firm owners,

especially where SMEs are concerned, could be

one of the reasons for their lower research and

innovation activity, as older entrepreneurs are

typically more risk-averse towards investments in

innovation.

Despite favourable financing conditions, non-

financial corporations remain net lenders.

While SMEs have positive net investment

(EUR 44 billion in 2016), larger companies

continue to invest at a lower rate than capital

depreciation (KfW, 2017b). With a good self-

financing capacity and an equity ratio of 30 %,

German companies rely less on external finance. In

this context, the standard push factor, low interest

rates, appears to have hardly any impact on firms'

investment decisions.

Obstacles to investment, according to company

surveys include shortages of skilled labour

administrative and infrastructure constraints

and the tax treatment of innovation activity.

According to a recent company survey (DIHK,

2018), 68% of businesses report a lack of skilled

personnel as a bottleneck to investment and

according to a different survey (DIHK, 2017), an

even larger share, 82% of businesses, report

shortages of skilled human resources as an

obstacle to their innovation activities.. This affects

SMEs more than big business. Substitution of

capital for labour is considered to have limitations

(where capital and labour are complementary),

especially for SMEs. The prospect of a shrinking

labour force is thus likely to put a lid on domestic

investment growth in the medium and long run.

Improving human capital, investing more in

education and skills of the workforce, could help

offset this risk and contribute to higher investment.

Other obstacles to business innovation include the

administrative burden and the lack of broadband

internet (an obstacle reported by 65% and 58% of

businesses respectively).

Productivity*

Labour productivity and total factor

productivity are growing faster than the euro

area average, but sector-specific challenges

remain.

Productivity growth is the most important

driver of long-term growth and a prerequisite for

maintaining Germany’s high living standards.

Overall, labour productivity is growing faster than

the euro area average, especially in medium-high

technology sectors, such as motor vehicles,

chemicals or machinery and equipment. In

contrast, labour productivity growth in the services

sector has been a long way below that of the

manufacturing sector over the last decade (Graph

4.5.4). While total factor productivity shows a

stronger increase than the euro area average, the

annual growth rate for the last three years for

which records are available has remained stable

and below pre-crisis growth levels.

Graph 4.5.3:

Potential growth and contributions

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

%, pps

0.0

-0.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

TFP

Labour

TFP - EA

Capital accumulation

Potential growth

Source:

European Commission

Available firm-level data show that the gap

between the most and the least productive

companies has widened over the last decade.

This applies to both labour productivity and total

factor productivity, suggesting that there are

obstacles preventing resources from being

efficiently reallocated to their most productive uses

(

). Recent research by the OECD further suggests

that about 12 % of capital is sunk in “zombie

(

) Data from the Competitiveness Research Network

(CompNet), available up to 2012. Update with more recent

data currently under progress, but not yet available.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Investment

firms” (firms that have been in existent for over a

decade and have had an interest coverage ratio of

less than one over three consecutive years). This

may act as a barrier to reallocation and

productivity growth (McGowan et al., 2017). The

concentration of investment in intangible assets in

a few sectors and firms has also exacerbated the

performance gap.

Graph 4.5.4:

Productivity developments

EUR/hour

Manufacturing

Market services

(1) Value added per hour worked, prices of 2010

(2) Market services include activities with classification

codes G (Trade), H (Transport), I (Hospitality), J

(Communications), M and N (Professional and Business

services).

Source:

European Commission

More investment could help make affordable

housing more widely available.

Most studies

agree that Germany faces a significant construction

backlog in major and intermediate urban areas,

though there is no agreement on the extent of this

gap (Dahl and Goralczyk, 2017). Government

estimates suggest that the current 250 thousand

units completed annually need to increase to 350

thousand, while other broad-based studies suggest

a gap closer to 200 thousand units over the next

five years, to compensate for underinvestment

since 2010. Estimates that take account of official

statistics on construction costs per square metre

suggest that closing the gap would imply

increasing residential investment by 0.8-1.6 % of

GDP. To open up attractive urban space for new

dwellings, higher complementary investment in

urban transport and utilities (e.g. in water supply

and waste treatment) might also be necessary. The

latter does not seem to have kept up, which has

resulted in a decline capital stock and potentially

capacity bottlenecks (Graph 4.5.8). Although the

rental price break (‘Mietpreisbremse’) could

contain increases in rental prices in the short run,

increases in house prices are trickling down over

time. A lasting policy for affordable housing

requires an adequate supply response (see also

IMF 2017a).

Graph 4.5.5:

Housing overvaluation gap

Developments in the housing market*

-5

-10

-15

The housing market is facing strong demand

fuelled by rising incomes, low interest rates, and

high levels of net migration.

Price heterogeneity

across regions has increased strongly, especially in

and around the major urban centres. While prices

increased overall (Graph 4.5.5), overvaluation in

some major urban centres reached about 15-30 %.

However, this is not excessive in international

comparison (Bundesbank, 2017) and there is no

indication so far of a national house price bubble

and macro-prudential risks remain contained (see

also Section 4.1). The strong price increases reflect

buoyant residential demand, and scarce, even if

slowly catching up, supply. Measures to ease

supply constraints have double benefits: improving

the housing situation and mitigating overvaluation

risks. Measures for renovating and upgrading can

also contribute to climate policy goals and reduce

costs of living.

Model-based valuations gap

Price to rent vs. hist. avg.

Price to income vs. hist. avg.

(1) Overvaluation gap estimated as an average of the

price/income, price/rent and fundamental model valuation

gaps. Long-term values are computed over 1995-2016.

Source:

European Commission

Filling the housing supply gap could have a

significant impact on the current account

surplus.

The large dip in construction investment

(as a share of GDP) from the late 1990s until 2015

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Investment

was the most significant change in German

investment during the emergence of the current

account surplus. Remedying the sizeable

accumulated shortage of housing, would have a

significant impact on the current account. Given

historical elasticities and input-output estimates,

the main impact of increasing investment in

housing would be to push up domestic nominal

GDP. In addition such a change would also result

in spillovers, strong effects in nominal demand in

the rest of the euro area, based on latest estimates

international

inter-industry

technology

coefficients. Raising construction investment –

including also renovation and upgrading - by

EUR 30-60 billion over five years (i.e. 1-2 % of

GDP) to close the supply gap, would thus translate

into a 0.25-0.5 pps. reduction in the current

account surplus, not taking secondary effects on

labour markets, wages, etc. into account.

Eradicating the entire construction backlog within

five years would probably require an increase in

construction investment of more than 3 pps. from

its current share of 10 % of GDP.

The Federal Government has introduced a

number of measures aimed at alleviating the

shortage of dwellings.

First, it introduced

Housing Construction Campaign, a package of

measures designed to tackle housing shortages and

rising house prices. Second, it has committed to

contributing an annual EUR 1 billion over 2016 –

2019 to social housing projects supporting

families, students, pensioners and refugees. Third,

to deal with the ongoing refugee crisis, KfW has

made EUR 1 billion available since 2015 for

municipal authorities to provide housing for

refugees. Fourth, the urban development assistance

programme “Social City” focuses on stabilising

and upgrading economically and socially deprived

urban areas and is an example of successful

collaboration among various bodies at federal and

Länder

level. For 2017, EUR 190 million of

funding was made available for this programme.

Graph 4.5.6:

Gross fixed capital formation in the public

sector

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

% of GDP

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.1

0.9

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Equipment

Housing

NRC

Intang. and

oth. assets

Total (rhs)

Source:

Destatis, European Commission

Public investment including knock-on effects

on private investment*

Public investment is picking up but a significant

backlog has largely remained in place.

Real

public investment increased robustly in 2015-2017

in comparison to the sometimes negative growth

rates in the years before (Graph 4.5.6). This trend

reflects the efforts by the government to strengthen

investment, but the public capital stock as a share

of GDP is still declining. Investment as a

percentage of capital stock in the government

sector and also public investment as a percentage

of public expenditure are lower in Germany than in

other EU-15 countries and the euro area average

(

). The biggest fall since the crisis has been

recorded in construction and the only sector, which

has expanded in line with GDP over the years, is

intellectual property.

(

) With specific regard to government investment, the gross

fixed capital formation recorded for the general

government depends on the classification of units and in

some cases specific transactions (European Commission,

2016e).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Investment

Graph 4.5.7:

Net public investment by level of government

0.2

% of GDP

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

Federal

SSF

State

General

Local

Source:

European commission

Local

authorities'

net

investment

infrastructure has been falling for years,

resulting in a large investment backlog.

Municipal authorities are responsible for over half

of public investment, so it is vital to address the

challenges facing this level of government. While

the federal government and the

Länder

have

managed to keep their construction investment

stable, the municipalities suffered from a

continuous decline. In the early 1990s, about 17 %

of their expenditure went on infrastructure. The

figure had dropped to 13 % by 2000 and 10 % by

2010, falling further to 8 % by 2016. The gravity

of the reduction in investment can also be seen by

the continuously negative net investment of

municipalities (around EUR 6 billion annually

over 2010-2016, 0.2 % of GDP), as new

investments only replace about 80 % of the capital

stock lost through depreciation each year (Graph

4.5.7). According to the yearly survey conducted

by the public development bank KfW (2017a), the

municipal investment backlog had reached about

EUR 126 billion (4 % of GDP) by 2017. Within

this backlog, the areas with the biggest shortfall

are: ‘Infrastructure and streets’ (27 %) and

‘Schools and education’ (26 %). Closing the

investment backlog at municipal level would

require an additional annual public investment of

0.3 % of GDP over the next decade.

Measures to bridge the gaps in the skills and

planning capacity needed for public investment

have yet to yield results.

Two of the main factors

holding back public investment are staff shortages

and a lack of engineering expertise; funding is less

of a problem. Staff reductions in recent years,

particularly at municipal level, have contributed to

a loss of skills and the capacity to plan, organise

and manage investment projects, particularly

relatively large-scale ones. The government has

now responded to this challenge by setting up a

service agency (PD

– Berater der öffentlichen

Hand GmbH)

that offers assistance in managing

investment projects to Germany's 11 000

municipalities. However, it was not until 2017 that

the agency became operational, and the take-up

rate has been rather low so far. Time will tell how

effective it will prove to be; one issue is the large

number of municipalities, which could create

capacity bottlenecks at the agency itself. The new

Infrastructure

Company

for

Transport

(Infrastrukturgesellschaft

Verkehr)

is being set up

in order to concentrate knowledge and staff at

federal level, so as to manage large-scale

investment projects more effectively. It is

scheduled to be set up in 2018 and become fully

operational by 2021. A comprehensive long-term

investment strategy could also help incentivise

more investment by providing clarity and certainty

about future developments.

Public investment in education, R&D and

digital infrastructure can have long-term

crowding-in effects on private investment.

recent study suggests that public investment, e.g.

in digital infrastructure and education, can have

positive long-term effects on private investment

(crowding-in effects) (Krebs and Scheffel, 2016) –

the positive effects are also shown in the QUEST

simulations shown in Box 3.1. Public expenditure

on education has remained at 4.2 % of GDP in

2015 and below the EU average (

) of 4.8 %

across the EU. The national target of 10 % of GDP

for spending on education and research by 2015

was not met and spending remained at 9.1 % of

GDP in 2015. This corresponds to an investment

gap estimated at EUR 27.2 billion (0.9 % of GDP;

German Trade Union Confederation, 2017).

In contrast, public investment can be expected

to crowd out some private investment in the

(

) Complete comparability of public education expenditure

can however not be achieved because of the different

organisation of work-based components in VET in

different Member States, where (private) expenditure by

companies in Germany is considerable.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Investment

construction sector.

Public structural and civil

engineering orders, including contracts for road

construction, are at an historically high level last

reached at the turn of the century. Orders in the

road construction sector are peaking. However, the

surge in public construction orders is coming up

against capacity bottlenecks in the construction

sector. The current high capacity utilisation,

combined with lengthy planning permission

processes and construction design procedures, may

slow down increases in public investment. While

there has so far been no overheating (Gornig and

Michelsen, 2017a and 2017b), price increases for

construction services can be expected (Ifo

Institute, 2017). Many construction firms plan to

invest more, though skills shortages have been

reported as the main bottleneck for capacity

expansion (DIHK, 2017).

Graph 4.5.8:

Net capital stock by type of activity

110

108

106

104

102

100

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Manufacturing

Water & waste

Housing

Energy

Communications

TOTAL

Index,

2008=100

and the take-up of cutting-edge digital innovations.

However, only 7.3 % of the territory was covered

by fibre-based access networks, with an EU

average of 26.8 % (IHS and Point Topic, 2018).

Instead, the incumbent, where the German

government is an anchor stakeholder, prefers to

use vectoring. Vectoring is a technique to upgrade

the existing copper cable networks used as a

technological solution for expanding digital

networks and connecting new users due to its cost-

effectiveness and currently acceptable data transfer

capacity.

The digital divide between urban, semi-rural

and rural areas is a particular challenge.

Currently only 36.2% of rural areas and 67.7% of

semi-rural areas have access to fast internet (>= 50

Mbit/s (Federal Ministry of Transport and

Infrastructure, 2017) and only 2.4 % of rural areas

are covered with fibre-based access networks

(Fibre to the Home) (IHS and Point Topic, 2018).

However, many services, such as mobile health

devices for monitoring chronic health conditions or

telemedicine services that can improve access to

care for patients living in remote or sparsely

populated areas, rely on ultrafast connectivity. In

addition, many of Germany’s SMEs are located in

semi-rural and rural areas.

Market failures could account for the

underinvestment in broadband in rural and

semi-rural areas.

Because of the high fixed costs

of investment, unit costs increase significantly as

population densities drop, i.e. in rural and semi-

rural areas. If deployed on commercial terms,

broadband networks therefore tend to profitably

cover only population in urban areas. However, in

a recent survey 86 % of all the companies

interviewed considered broadband rollout to be the

most important task for the new government

(Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and

Energy, 2017c). Widespread and affordable access

to broadband generates positive externalities

because of its capacity to accelerate growth and

innovation in all sectors of the economy. Different

financing models, such as a wholesale-only

approach or different cooperation models, could

facilitate the roll-out of rural broadband (WIK-

Consult, 2017).

Chain linked volumes

Source:

European Commission

Germany

expanding

communication

networks, but is lagging behind in the

deployment of very high-capacity broadband.

The expansion of the communication networks

was stepped up in 2016 (Graph 4.5.8). The

deployment of a very high-capacity digital

infrastructure, including next-generation gigabit-

networks(

), is a pre-requisite for competitiveness

(

) The Commission’s strategy on Connectivity for a European

Gigabit Society, adopted in September 2016, sets out a

vision of Europe where availability and take-up of very

high capacity networks enable the widespread use of

products, services and applications in the Digital Single

Market.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Investment

Box 4.5.1:

Investment challenges and reforms in Germany

Section 1. Macroeconomic perspective

Total investment in Germany proved to be fairly resilient to the crisis. Still, non-residential construction

investment is stagnating, leaving an accumulated backlog unaddressed Investment in machinery and

equipment has picked up and reached pre-crisis levels but is yet to reach pre-crisis intensity (see Chapter 1

and Section 4.5). Investment in housing has picked up since 2010 but indications are that it still needs to

catch up with rising housing needs. In the next few years, housing investment is expected to develop

dynamically, while non-residential construction will require a permanent improvement in business

confidence and the capacity to set up, plan and implement public investment projects.

Section 2. Assessment of barriers to investment and ongoing reforms

Barriers to private investment in Germany are not related to financing constraints (see Section 4.2), but

rather to high regulatory burden and shortages of skilled labour. More ambitious liberalisation of regulated

professions could spur investment in the affected sectors and in the wider economy (European Commission,

2015b).

Regulatory/ administrative burden

Public administration

Public

administration/

Public procurement /PPPs

Business

Judicial system

environment

Insolvency framework

Competition and regulatory framework

Labour

market/

Education

Legend:

EPL & framework for labour contracts

Wages & wage setting

Education

Sector

specific

regulation

CSR

Financial

Sector /

Taxation

R&D&I

Financing of R&D&I

Business services / Regulated professions

Retail

Construction

Digital Economy / Telecom

Energy

Transport

CSR

Taxation

Access to finance

Cooperation btw academia, research and business

CSR

No barrier to investment identified

CSR

Investment barriers that are also subject to a CSR

No progress

Limited progress

Some progress

Substantial progress

Fully addressed

Main barriers to investment and priority actions underway:

1. The relatively high level and complexity of corporate taxation and high tax administration costs remains

a key barrier. While measures have been taken to simplify certain areas of taxation, enhance tax

administration and improve conditions for venture capital, no further initiatives have been taken or are

planned to review corporate taxation or the local trade tax

(Gewerbesteuer).

2. As the labour market tightens, availability of skilled labour is becoming more of a binding constraint, in

particular for medium-sized enterprises. Measures that reduce disincentives for working more hours (for

people working in mini-jobs or second earners), along with a stronger focus on training and adult learning

could considerably alleviate this constraint.

3. Regulatory restrictiveness in the services sectors gives rise to low productivity and uncompetitive pricing

which affects also the costs and performance of the manufacturing sector. Limited action has been

announced with respect to further liberalizing professional services.

4. The current design of the federal fiscal relations has been a barrier to public investment at municipal level.

The scope for public investment tends to be narrowed by a mismatch between the available resources of the

different layers of government and their individual investment responsibilities, and by limited revenue

autonomy of federal states and municipalities. Several measures have been recently taken to improve public

investment conditions at municipal level. The agreed reform of federal fiscal relations should further

increase investment possibilities at municipal level, even though it falls short of more fundamental changes

in terms of increasing tax autonomy of federal states and municipalities.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

Business environment

new powers could help advance the development

of eGovernment services.

Germany is lagging behind other EU countries

in deploying and using eHealth.

While almost

half of the population, in Estonia and Finland

(49 %) use online health services from time to

time, according to a 2017 Eurobarometer survey,

only for 7 % of Germans do so. (European

Commission, 2017g) This corresponds with the

comparatively low adoption of eHealth both

among general practitioners and hospitals, an area

in which Germany scored below the EU average in

a Commission survey (European Commission,

2013 and 2014b). Although the federal

government’s eHealth law of 2015 sets inter alia

milestones for the deployment of a digital eHealth

infrastructure and the comprehensive use of the

electronic health card in all medical establishments

as from mid-2018, it is still unclear whether this

objective will be met.

Public procurement*

Efforts to reduce the bureaucratic burden have

had some effect but could still be strengthened,

for example to further improve conditions for

start-ups.

Germany has a favourable business

environment and is ranked 20

out of 190 in the

2018 World Bank Doing Business Review (World

Bank , 2017). While most sub-indicators are high

in the ranking, disadvantages remain regarding the

administrative burden for starting a business and

for registering property. Several measures have

been taken over the last years to improve the

business

environment

and

reduce

the

administrative burden for businesses, including

two laws to reduce red tape and the introduction of

a ‘one-in, one-out’ rule to avoid a further increase

in the administrative burden. Some measures have

also been taken in recent years to make public

procurement procedures simpler, more flexible and

more user-friendly. However, the friendliness of

the tax system for private investment still ranks

low by EU-wide comparison. Small businesses and

start-ups would particularly benefit from reducing

inefficiencies in taxation and modernising the tax

administration, including by further enhancing

electronic services (European Commission, 2017f).

Public administration

Germany is not using the potential of

eGovernment.

It is one of the EU countries with

the lowest online interaction between public

authorities and citizens. Only 19 % of Germans

with internet access use eGovernment services

actively

(European

Commission,

2017g).

According to the eGovernment Monitor 2017

(Initiative D21, 2017), the use of eGovernment and

satisfaction with its services actually decreased

over the last year. Currently, eGovernment

services are fragmented and not very user-friendly.

Following an amendment to the Basic Law,

adopted in December 2016, the Federal

Government now has the legislative powers to

design access to the administrative services of the

federal and

Länder

authorities, including the

municipalities. The accompanying law – the

Online

Access

Improvement

Act

(‘Onlinezugangsverbesserungsgesetz’), stipulates

that the Federal Government,

Länder

and local

authorities must offer their administrative services

online within five years and make them easily

accessible via a linked network of portals. These

Higher publication rates could improve the

quality of services and allow for further

efficiency gains.

At 1.2 % of GDP, Germany has,

for years, recorded the EU's lowest values for

contracts published under EU rules (the EU

average is 4.25 % of GDP). In the health sector the

incidence of non-publication and the number of

cases in which only one bid is received are

striking. Examples include the purchase of medical

imaging equipment or medicinal products. In

general, the lack of data is a problem. The

regulation on public procurement statistics

(‘Vergabestatistikverordnung’) – once operational

– is a step in the right direction to improve this

situation.

A smarter use of public procurement could also

encourage innovation.

Despite the introduction of

a centre of excellence for innovative public

procurement in 2013, only limited progress seems

to have been made at federal and regional level

towards encouraging innovation through public

procurement. The fact that 67 % of contracts are

still awarded on the basis of the lowest price offer

may also be an obstacle to innovation.

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4.6. SECTORAL POLICIES

Innovation, venture capital, entrepreneurial

activity and digital economy*

Research and Innovation

Germany is one of the EU’s innovation leaders,

but in a context of slow productivity growth

and negative demographic trends, the challenge

is to secure its competitive position at the

forefront of research and innovation.

With

2.94 % of GDP in 2016, Germany has the 3

highest R&D intensity in the EU, but there are

significant disparities at regional level. There has

been a consistent upward trend in total public and

private R&D expenditure in the last decade. While

business R&D intensity increased by 0.3 pps.

between 2007 and 2016, public R&D intensity rose

by only 0.2 pps. A more ambitious R&D intensity

target of 3.5 % was proposed by the Expert

Commission on Research and Innovation.

Over the last few years Germany has taken

measures to further strengthen its already solid

research and science base, but there is scope for

scientific excellence to improve.

Germany has a

solid science base, supported by initiatives such as

the

Pact for Research and Innovation,

which funds

science and research institutes; the

Higher

Education Pact,

which supports higher education

institutes in providing quality education; the

Excellence Strategy,

a successor programme to the

Excellence Initiative;

and the tenure-track

programme to support young scientists. However,

Germany currently ranks only 8th in the EU on the

key indicator reflecting scientific excellence. (

)

This suggests there is scope for further progress.

Though overall cooperation between public

research institutes and firms is strong, SMEs

still face challenges in benefiting from it.

Germany's policies to encourage science-business

cooperation (e.g. the Fraunhofer Society) are often

taken as examples of worldwide best practice.

However, the country's high scores on the relevant

indicators (

), are often the result of strong

(

) The proportion of the country's scientific publications that

rank among the top 10 % most cited scientific publications

worldwide.

(

) With a volume of public R&D financed by business

enterprises representing 0.12 % of GDP in 2014 (EU

average: 0.052 %), Germany ranks first among EU

countries. It ranks 3rd in public-private scientific co-

publication as a share of the total number of publications,

with 3.5 % in 2015 (EU average: 2.8 %).

cooperation between mainly large manufacturing

companies and public research institutes. As

regards the rate of cooperation between SMEs and

academia or research institutes, Germany scores

only slightly above the EU average, according to

the Community Innovation Survey 2014.

Private investment in R&D has been

increasingly concentrated in large firms and in

medium-high tech manufacturing.

While overall

business expenditure on R&D shows strong

growth rates, R&D has become increasingly

concentrated in large firms and in medium-high-

tech manufacturing sectors, particularly the

automotive sector. While SMEs' R&D intensity

has remained static over the past decade (Graph

4.6.1), the R&D intensity of large companies has

increased considerably (KfW, 2017b; ZEW,

2017c). SMEs' expenditure on R&D at 0.17 % of

GDP is also much lower than the EU average in

2015 (0.30 %). Political discussion has returned to

considering tax incentives for business R&D,

which, if appropriately designed, could foster

R&D investment also in young and innovative

firms.

Employment in fast-growing firms in innovative

sectors (

) has fallen, as has the share of

innovative firms and entrepreneurship overall.

The latest data show that the proportion of total

jobs for which high-growth innovative firms

account has fallen and that Germany's score is

below the EU average. (

) Similarly, the share of

innovative businesses as a percentage of the total

has fallen, although it continues to be the highest

in the EU (

) (KfW, 2017b; ZEW, 2017c).

Moreover, though there are some very dynamic

start-up environments in large cities such as Berlin,

the overall trend in entrepreneurship is negative.

This applies to all sectors, including knowledge-

(

) Number of employees in high-growth enterprises (HGEs)

in the 50 % most innovative sectors, as a share of total

employment for enterprises with 10 or more employees.

HGEs are defined as enterprises with an average annual

growth in employees greater than 10 % a year, over a

three-year period, and with 10 or more employees at the

beginning of the observation period.

(

) The share of employment in fast-growing enterprises in

innovative sectors fell from 5.9 % in 2012 to 4.5 % in 2014

(EU average: 4.8 %).

( ) According to the Community Innovation Survey,

innovative enterprises with ten employees or more

accounted for 79 % of the total in 2010, falling to 67 % by

2014 (whereas the EU-average share fell from 53 % in

2010 to 49 % in 2014).

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4.6. Sectoral policies

intensive ones. The firm birth ratio (

) has been

declining in recent years, falling from 9.2 % in

2008 to 7.1 % in 2015, well below the EU average

of 9.6 %. The negative trends observed may be

explained in part by the favourable labour market

situation, with good job opportunities making

entrepreneurship less attractive. However, these

downward trends might also reflect the first effects

of an ageing population. Demographic trends may

have an increasing impact on entrepreneurial

activity in the coming years, including on the

transfer of existing businesses.

Graph 4.6.1:

Business expenditure on R&D (BERD)

performed by SMEs

0.6

% of GDP

capital gains (see also Section 4.1). To encourage

more investment in the venture capital market, an

important milestone was achieved in 2017 in

providing investors with an exit option. ‘Deutsche

Börse Network’ provides support to SMEs which

are considering going public, and a new SME

stock market segment, ‘Scale’, was launched in

March 2017, replacing the previous entry standard.

However, the venture capital market remains

less developed compared to other international

innovation leaders.

Seed and early stage

financing has recovered since the beginning of the

financial crisis in 2008. However, at 0.03 % of

GDP in 2016, it falls well below the levels in other

EU countries such as Ireland (0.08 %), Finland

(0.05 %) and Sweden (0.04 %), and below

international competitors such as the US (Graph

4.6.2).

Graph 4.6.2:

Venture capital investment (market statistics)

in 2016

0.14

0.5

0.4

0.3

% of GDP

0.2

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.1

0.0

EU(1)

2007

2015

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

(1)EU: The values were estimated by DG Research and

Innovation. (2)ES, LU, NL, RO, SI, UK: Beaks in series

Source:

Eurostat

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

2007

2016

Entrepreneurship and access to finance

Seed plus start-up

Later stage

A number of measures have been taken to

strengthen entrepreneurial activity, and

especially to attract private investments in risk

capital.

A law was passed to extend the use of loss

carry-forwards, which can be relevant to young

and innovative companies. Moreover, an ‘ERP/EIF

growth facility’ co-investment fund of EUR 500

million was launched in March 2016 to support

later-stage financing of innovative companies.

Following a detailed evaluation in 2016, the scope

of the INVEST programme was further widened in

June 2017 and now includes an exit grant of 25 %

of capital gains to compensate for taxation of

(

) Births of enterprises as a percentage of the population of

active enterprises.

Source:

Invest Europe, Eurostat.

The lack of sufficient scale-up capital is

considered to be an impediment to the growth

of domestic start-ups.

Most efforts in Germany

have been focused on supporting early-stage

financing. The availability of later rounds of

financing at the capital-intensive scale-up phase,

on the other hand (later stage venture capital and

growth financing) is still very subdued and is

considered a constraint on the growth of domestic

start-ups (EFI, 2017). The main reason for this is

the scarcity of sufficiently large amounts of

finance and of large venture capital funds.

Initiatives to encourage institutional investors such

as insurance companies to invest in this market

2007

2016

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4.6. Sectoral policies

could help bridge this gap. Recently, support for

developing venture debt in Germany was

introduced into the political debate, with a view to

providing an alternative source of capital for start-

ups.

Skill shortages have become the main obstacle

to innovation, especially for SMEs.

Exacerbated

by the adverse demographic trend, skills shortages

have become a major obstacle for companies.

According to the 2017 DIHK Innovation Report

(DIHK, 2017), 82 % of businesses report shortages

of skilled people as an obstacle to their innovation

activities. This is a particular problem for SMEs.

According to the DIHK report, other obstacles to

business innovation include the administrative

burden (for approval procedures or the

development and use of chemicals, for example)

and the lack of broadband internet, an obstacle

reported by 65 % and 58 % of businesses

respectively.

Digital economy

replied that they lacked skilled employees. There

were 55 000 open ICT positions in October 2017

(BITKOM, 2017). Skills shortages have become a

major obstacle to the digitisation of the economy.

To help SMEs catch up with digitisation, the

government is extending a network of SME

competence centres.

The main purpose of the

centres is to inform SMEs about the potential that

digitisation offers. The centres support SMEs in

testing advanced technologies and in training staff.

Since July 2017, the support programme ‘go

digital’ has been providing consultancy services to

SMEs all over the country. Digital hubs are

promoting closer cooperation between start-ups,

SMEs, industry, science and administration.

Competition in product and services markets*

German businesses, particularly SMEs, are

adapting slowly to digitisation.

Any business

missing out on digital opportunities will be unable

to sustain the competitive pressure from more

highly digitalised rivals. ‘Industrie

4.0’

is a

national strategic initiative introduced by the

German government. It aims to drive digital

manufacturing forward, brings together all relevant

stakeholders and provides policy recommendations

and practical guidance to further support and

accelerate the adoption of technology at company

level. Digital economy business models frequently

provide a starting point for innovative start-ups.

Medium-sized

companies

(with

10-249

employees) are, however, slow adopters, and 29 %

of them have a low level of digitisation. Only

5.3 % of German SMEs, for example, use big data

analytics, compared with almost 10 % of European

SMEs (European Commission, 2017h). Some

sectors are a long way behind with digitisation,

particularly the health sector. Many firms are

unaware of the potential benefits of digitisation

(Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and

Energy, 2017c). Another reason why businesses do

not invest more in new digital business models is

the lack of skilled personnel. In 2016 SMEs were

asked what was preventing them from digitalising

their business. 67 % replied that there was a lack

of ICT skills in their workforce, while 55 %

There is still a high level of regulatory

restrictiveness in Germany, especially as

regards business services and administrative

formalities for cross-border provision of

services.

Churn rates in key business services

sectors such as legal, accounting, architectural and

engineering activities in Germany are below the

EU average, while gross operating rates in these

sectors are above the EU average, suggesting

lower competitive pressures. Because of services’

role as intermediate inputs, lower regulation of

services increases productivity in downstream

service-intensive industries. In Germany, this

applies particularly to manufacturing, where the

share of services in the value chain is estimated at

35.9 %. So far, no far-reaching reform measures

have been taken to stimulate competition in

business services. Germany introduced two limited

legislative changes in 2017. First, after expiry of

the transposition period for Directive 2013/55/EU,

Germany adopted a law to transpose these rules for

patent agents as well. Secondly, the law on tax

advisors (‘Steuerberatungsgesetz’) was amended

in line with the ECJ ruling in case C-342/14 to

ensure transparency and legal certainty, especially

as regards the provision of tax consultancy

services by companies established in another

Member State.

Providers of collaborative economy services

face uncertainty in Germany.

The absence of a

federal policy strategy, the divergent policies taken

by the German

Länder

and multiple court rulings

lead to legal uncertainty for actors in the

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4.6. Sectoral policies

collaborative economy (see Box 4.6.1 for further

details). For example, the Berlin legislation on

short-term accommodation services has been

challenged in several (partly) pending court

proceedings. This has caused doubt on whether

and how to apply the rules. In the passenger

transport sector, certain services were prohibited

by court decisions; but appeals were brought

before the Federal Court which requested a

preliminary ruling regarding compliance with

Union law.

Germany displays a high level of regulatory

restrictiveness

regards

both

retail

establishments and retailers' daily operations.

Restrictive spatial planning rules in some

Länder

are having a negative impact on retail market

dynamics, hampering the establishment of certain

retail formats which offer a wider range of

complementary products (Holland van Gijzen

Advocaten, 2016).

Railways

Deutsche Bahn offering transport services. The

Court underlined the need for these accounts to be

published, to ensure external transparency in the

use of public funds.

Energy, resources and climate change*

The market share of new entrants in the long-

distance passenger train services market

remains below 1 %.

One of the key factors

hindering market entry is the restricted access to

ticket distribution channels. The German

Monopolies Commission recommends that, since

using the distribution channels of Deutsche Bahn

AG is crucial for its competitors, the company

should not be allowed to refuse unilaterally to

cooperate on tariffs and ticket sales (German

Monopolies Commission, 2017). In addition, high

track access charges result in very high operating

costs of railway undertakings.

The existing legal framework may also be

impeding competition.

In June 2017, the

European Court of Justice found that Deutsche

Bahn's accounting rules are such that it is

impossible to monitor compliance with the

prohibition on transferring public funds earmarked

for infrastructure management to the branch of

The adaptation of electricity networks to

renewables production in Germany is

progressing, but at a slow pace, and significant

investment in transmission and distribution

grids remains outstanding.

Substantial delays in

carrying out many projects have occurred due to

delays in planning procedures, the need to further

promote the synchronisation of network and

renewables development, as well as outstanding

decisions in relation to network development and

investment expected to be made with the network

development plan in 2019. These delays have

resulted in considerable costs for German and

European electricity networks and electricity

markets. Market intervention by system operators

remains significant, although both redispatch costs

and feed-in management measures (curtailment of

renewable generation) decreased in 2016

compared to 2015: EUR 220 million redispatch

costs (2015: EUR 412 million), EUR 373 million

for feed-in management measures (2015: EUR 478

million).

The lack or shortage of north-south internal

lines constrain the trade in electricity with

neighbouring countries, as cross-border

relevant domestic congestions tend to be pushed

to the borders.

The current congestion

management and price-zone definition in Germany

and in Central Europe do not always address

congestion appropriately, thus limiting cross-

border flows of electricity. While the bilateral

agreement between Germany and Austria and

Germany and Denmark, respectively, on an interim

solution to this problem is a step in the right

direction, further discussions with neighbouring

countries are needed if the agreement is to be

implemented smoothly.

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4.6. Sectoral policies

Box 4.6.1:

Collaborative economy

The German government encourages a broad discussion on digital economy and platforms. It launched a

'Digital Strategy 2025' in 2016, and in 2017 published a 'White Book on Digital Platforms', which presents

practical proposals for "digital governance". Although a number of measures and projects have been

initiated, these efforts have not yet translated into a strategy on the collaborative economy, which could

generate opportunities for citizens, as users of new and innovative services or as micro entrepreneurs, as

well as for traditional service providers in terms of new business channels.

Currently, policy and regulation differ because of the federal system considerably across regions and cities,

for example regarding short-term accommodation and passenger transport. In Berlin, regional legislation de

facto prohibits all use of residential property for any other purposes than long-term housing. As of the

second time, renting out more than 50% of a property for a period of less than two months is subject to prior

authorisation. Exceptions are possible but are subject to strict criteria (e.g. an equivalent property has to be

made newly available to the property market or the host's personal livelihood is directly at risk). Also in

Munich, short-term rental of entire properties is subject to authorisation, namely where more than 50% of

the main residence is rented out, or the property is rented out for longer than eight weeks in a calendar year.

This could be the case where less than 50% of the property is rented out for a maximum period of eight

weeks per year. In the field of passenger transport, services may only be provided as 1) traditional taxi, 2)

hire cars with drivers, or 3) non-profit ridesharing. Due to the level of restrictiveness in the first category,

collaborative economy services would mostly be offered as hire cars with drivers. There is no maximum

number of licences. However, even if all criteria are met, local authorities can still deny the license on

various grounds (including the protection of local taxi trade).

The German Monopoly Commission already in 2014 expected particular economic and efficiency gains in

the taxi market. A recent Commission Study on passenger transport (European Commission, 2016a)

suggests that so far only 2-3 % of mediated taxi rides were set up via smart-phone apps. This represents only

0.4 % on the entire taxi market and indicates further potential.

Retail electricity prices in Germany remain

among the highest in the EU, despite

competitive wholesale markets and falling

wholesale prices.

Although wholesale prices are

relatively low (about 25 % below the EU average)

and falling (-23.4 % between 2013 and 2016), and

despite competitive retail markets with high

switching rates, household electricity prices rose in

the same period by 1.9 %, to 29.8 cents/kwh. This

is about 45 % above the EU average. Prices on

wholesale markets fell by 3 % on spot markets and

by 12 % on future markets. The decoupling of

developments on the German wholesale and retail

markets could hamper active consumer

participation through demand-side flexibility, e.g.

through more real-time electricity contracts. The

activation of such services requires price signals

from the wholesale market to be passed on to

consumers, to incentivise them to react to

scarcities in the market.

The huge discrepancy between developments in

the wholesale and the retail sector can be

explained by the large shares of taxes and

levies, with exemptions of some sectors, for

example from the renewable surcharge.

At 53.6

% of the household electricity price, taxes and

levies are substantially higher than the EU average

(36 %) imposing on households both the costs

resulting from support schemes for generation

capacity and the exemptions of energy intensive

sectors.

Germany is not on track to reach its national

indicative energy efficiency targets by 2020.

to 2015, energy-intensity decreased in parallel with

the EU average. However, there appears to be a

considerable risk that Germany will not meet its

target. It needs to make considerable further efforts

to reduce energy consumption in the run-up to

2020.

While the German Federal Government

adopted a National Action Plan on Energy

Efficiency, further measures to improve energy

efficiency in transport have untapped potential.

Germany's efficiency policies are subject to

continuous review, also in the light of the

development of a national energy and climate plan

on which Germany is advanced. Germany has

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4.6. Sectoral policies

launched a ‘green paper’ process, designed to

establish the ‘efficiency first’ principle, and

involving stakeholders. Given the increased

urbanisation and population density of urban areas

in Germany, and since the share of collective

passenger transport has increased only slightly,

measures to promote public transport - as opposed

to individual, fossil-fuelled transport - could

represent a fresh opportunity for more energy-

efficient transport.

Germany has made substantial efforts to make

its building stock more energy-efficient.

Since

the political push to decarbonise the economy,

Germany has set a comprehensive regulatory and

policy framework. Between 2006 and 2016,

4.6 million dwellings were either refurbished, or

designed and built to be energy-efficient.

Germany appears on track to meet its

Europe2020 renewable energy target.

With a

renewables share in final energy consumption of

14.8 % in 2016, Germany was above its indicative

trajectory of 11.3 % for 2015-2016 and 3.2

percentage points below its 2020 target of 18 %.

Germany aims to increase the proportion of

electricity from renewable sources in its energy

mix from 32.2 % in 2016 to 40-45 % in 2025 and

55-60 % in 2035. A revised renewable energy

sources act adopted in July 2016 (Erneuerbare

Energien Gesetz, EEG 2017)

governs the support

system for most renewable electricity generation in

Germany. Among other things, the new law

stipulates that levels of support for more renewable

energy projects must be determined by competitive

auctions.

Germany is expected to miss its nationally set

emissions reduction target for 2020 by 4 pps.

Germany has set itself the target of cutting

greenhouse gas emissions by 40 % between 1990

and 2020. Thus, the Climate Action Programme

2020 and the NAPE were developed. In 2016,

emissions were estimated at 27.3 % below 1990

levels. A projection report submitted under the

Monitoring

Mechanism

Regulation

(Projektionsbericht

2017)

concluded that current

(as of July 2016) and planned policies do not yield

the required additional emissions reduction by

2020, as the results of the planned measures are

expected to materialise only after 2025. As a

result, emissions in 2020 are expected to be 36 %

below 1990 levels.

Germany is expected to miss its EU 2020 Effort

Sharing Decision (ESD) target.

EU law requires

a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in sectors

that are not covered by the EU Emission Trading

System (e.g. the agricultural, residential,

commercial, transport, and waste management

sectors) by 14 % between 2005 and 2020.

Preliminary data indicates that Germany reached

its Effort Sharing Decision target for 2016.

However, Germany’s projection report indicates

that, under current policies, the 2020 ESD

emission reduction target will be missed by a

margin of 3.3 pps.

The transport sector is expected to achieve

relatively limited emission reductions.

Under

current policies, Germany’s projection report

concludes that emissions in the transport sector are

expected to fall by 1 % between 2005 and 2020.

As total emissions in Germany are expected to fall

faster over the same period, transport sector

emissions as a proportion of total emissions in

Germany are expected to rise to 20 % (an increase

of 3 pps.) Despite efforts to support and increase

the use of electric vehicles in Germany, the target

of 1 million electric cars on German roads by 2020

is unlikely to be met.

Despite an ambitious policy approach and the

various measures already in place, there is a

risk that Germany will miss its own resource

productivity objectives.

As early as 2002, the

Federal Government adopted a sustainable

development strategy which included the objective

of doubling German resource productivity by

2020, compared with 1994. The latest figures show

that improvements in resource productivity during

the last five years suggest that the indicator will

just reach 60 % of the set goal (Federal Ministry

for the Environment, Nature Conservation,

Building and Nuclear Safety, 2015).

Emissions of several air pollutants are above

legal limits and water pollution remains a

serious concern.

Despite significant emission

reductions in recent years, total emissions for

nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and

ammonia are above the current ceilings for

acceptable levels. Nitrogen oxide limits are being

exceeded partly as a result of pollutants emitted by

diesel vehicles. Over the last years, newly-

registered diesel passenger cars did not perform as

aimed at by regulators as some of them were

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4.6. Sectoral policies

equipped with software that disactivated built-in

powerful emission-reduction technologies while

the cars were in normal use. The economic costs

related to air pollution are estimated to include

27 million working days lost each year because of

illness, with associated costs to employers of

EUR 3 500 million/year, and healthcare costs of

above EUR 240-466 million/year (European

Commission, 2017i). There is evidence of

significant unsolved water pollution problems

caused by nitrates, especially in areas with

intensive farming. In the long term this will lead to

higher costs for water treatment. Experts estimate

that the consumer price will rise by at least 32 %

per year to ensure that drinking water meets

sufficiently

high

quality

standards

(Umweltbundesamt, 2017).

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ANNEX A

OVERVIEW TABLE

Commitments

2017 country-specific recommendations (CSRs)

CSR1:

While respecting the medium-term

objective, use fiscal and structural policies to

support potential growth and domestic demand

as well as to achieve a sustained upward trend in

investment. Accelerate public investment at all

levels of government, especially in education,

research and innovation, and address capacity

and planning constraints for infrastructure

investments. Further improve the efficiency and

investment-friendliness of the tax system.

Stimulate competition in business services and

regulated professions.

…use fiscal and structural policies to support

potential growth and domestic demand as well

as to achieve a sustained upward trend in

investment.

Germany has made

limited progress

in addressing

CSR 1 (this overall assessment of CSR 1 does not

include an assessment of compliance with the

Stability and Growth Pact):

Summary assessment (

)



Limited progress

has been made in achieving a

sustained upward trend in investment. The public

investment share of GDP for 2017 remained

largely unchanged compared to the two years

before.



June 2017: The federal government decided to

invest additional funds in transport infrastructure

in 2018.

(

) The following categories are used to assess progress in implementing the 2017 country-specific recommendations (CSRs):

No progress:

The Member State has not credibly announced nor adopted any measures to address the CSR. This category covers a

number of typical situations, to be interpreted on a case-by-case basis taking into account country-specific conditions. They

include the following:



no legal, administrative, or budgetary measures have been announced in the national reform programme, in any other

official communication to the national Parliament/relevant parliamentary committees or the European Commission,

publicly (e.g. in a press statement or on the government's website);



no non-legislative acts have been presented by the governing or legislative body;



the Member State has taken initial steps in addressing the CSR, such as commissioning a study or setting up a study group

to analyse possible measures to be taken (unless the CSR explicitly asks for orientations or exploratory actions). However,

it has not proposed any clearly-specified measure(s) to address the CSR.

Limited progress:

The Member State has:



announced certain measures but these address the CSR only to a limited extent; and/or



presented legislative acts in the governing or legislative body but these have not been adopted yet and substantial further,

non-legislative work is needed before the CSR is implemented;



presented non-legislative acts, but has not followed these up with the implementation needed to address the CSR.

Some progress:

The Member State has adopted measures:



that partly address the CSR; and/or



that address the CSR, but a fair amount of work is still needed to address the CSR fully as only a few of the measures

have been implemented. For instance, a measure or measures have been adopted by the national Parliament or by

ministerial decision, but no implementing decisions are in place.

Substantial progress:

The Member State has adopted measures that go a long way towards addressing the CSR and most of them

have been implemented.

Full implementation:

The Member State has implemented all measures needed to address the CSR appropriately.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

A. Overview table



August 2017: Additional funding of the

Municipal Investment Promotion Fund for

modernizing school buildings including digital

infrastructure.

Accelerate public investment at all levels of

government, especially in education …



Limited progress

has been made in increasing

public expenditure on education and no additional

measures have been taken in this regard. Despite

more spending by the Federal Government,

expenditure on education as a proportion of GDP

at the level of general government has remained

stable in recent years and well below the EU

average. Overall public and private education and

research expenditure has increased only slightly

in recent years and may have fallen short of the

national target of 10 % of GDP.



The reallocation of financial responsibilities

between the state and the federal levels can

somewhat improve the availability of funding at

the state level where direct responsibility for

investment lies.



June 2017:

The base law was modified to adjust

the allocation of responsibilities and funding

between the state vs the federal level, from 2020.

…research and innovation,



Limited progress

has been made in increasing

public expenditure on research and innovation

and no additional measures have been taken in

this regard. Despite some nominal increases,

public expenditure on R&D has remained at

around 0.9 % of GDP in recent years and total

public and private expenditure remained at around

2.9 % of GDP in 2015 and 2016.



Some progress

has been made:

… and address capacity and planning

constraints for infrastructure investments.



Spring 2017:

To support public investment on

municipal

level,

the

service

agency

("Partnerschaft Deutschland – Berater der

öffentlichen Hand GmbH") did take up its

operational work in 2017.



No progress.

No additional measures have been

taken to improve the efficiency and investment-

friendliness of the tax system. Implementation of

measures taken in the past is on-going. On 1

January 2017 most provisions of the Act on the

Modernisation of Taxation Procedures became

Further improve the efficiency and investment-

friendliness of the tax system.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

A. Overview table

effective (Federal Law Gazette I 2016 no. 35, p.

1679). It has the potential to enhance the role of

IT and automated procedures relieving

administrative and compliance burden of tax

administrations and taxpayers. It is too early to

assess the actual impact of the new law. Its full

roll-out will stretch over a period of six years.

Stimulate competition in business services and

regulated professions



Limited progress

has been made regarding

measures to stimulate competition in business

services and regulated professions.

CSR2:

Reduce disincentives to work for second

earners and facilitate transitions to standard

employment. Reduce the high tax wedge for

low-wage earners. Create conditions to promote

higher real wage growth, respecting the role of

the social partners.

Reduce disincentives to work for second earners

Germany has made

limited progress

in addressing

CSR 2:



Limited progress

has been made in reducing

disincentives to work for second earners and

facilitate transition to standard employment. The

Act for Combating Tax Avoidance was adopted

in June 2017 and entered into force as of 1

January 2018 (Federal Law Gazette I p. 1682).

Tax brackets IV/IV become the standard tax

bracket for married couples. Further work is also

done to raise awareness of the factor-based

method.

…facilitate transitions to standard employment



Limited progress.

No further measures were

taken - though the law on temporary agency work

and work contracts entered into force in April

2017, after its adoption autumn 2016. This

provides equal pay after nine months of working

in the sector and the introduction of a maximum

transitional period of 18 months after which

temporary agency workers must be hired by the

company



Limited progress

has been made with reducing

the high tax wedge for low-wage earners, that was

due to the good economic situation, without

further specific action. In October 2017, it was

decided to reduce the supplementary contribution

rate to the regular health insurance system by

0.1 pp to 1.0 %, from 2018. In November 2017, it

was decided to reduce employee's pension

Reduce the high tax wedge for low-wage

earners

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

A. Overview table

contributions by 0.1 pp to 18.6 % from 2018, a

small decrease due to higher revenues in the

currently good economic situation, not a

structural change. Measures reducing the tax

wedge in general were adopted in 2016 and

entered into force on 1 January 2017 and

1 January 2018. These comprise successive

increases in the tax-free basic and child

allowances, the child benefit and the

supplementary child allowance, as well as

measures to contain the fiscal drag, from which

low wage earner benefit below average.

Create conditions to promote higher real wage

growth, respecting the role of the social

partners.



Limited progress

regarding promoting real wage

growth.



May 2017: The federal government adopted an

ordinance, setting out minimum wages for agency

workers, following up on earlier rules, with entry

into force from June 2017.



July 2017: The federal government adopted an

ordinance setting out minimum working

conditions including minimum wages in the long

term care sector, updating the existing regulation,

with entry into force from November 2017.

Europe 2020 (national targets and progress)

Employment rate of the population aged 20-64

years: 77 %

Employment rate of the population aged 55-64

years: 60 %

Employment rate of women: 73 %

R&D target: 3.0 % of GDP

79.1 % in the year ending September 2017.

69.7 % in the year ending September 2017.

75.0 % in the year ending September 2017.

2.94 % (2016)

Germany is close to reaching its target, but only

small progress in 2016: R&D intensity increased

slightly from 2.92 % of GDP in 2015 to 2.94 % in

2016 (the third highest in the EU). In 2016 R&D

intensity in Germany was composed of 0.94 % public

expenditure and 2 % business expenditure.

National greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)

target:

-14 % in 2020 compared to 2005 (in sectors not

According to the latest national projections submitted

to the Commission and taking into account existing

measures, the non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions

between 2005 and 2020 are expected to decrease by

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

A. Overview table

included in the EU emissions trading scheme)

10.7 %. This means that the target is expected to be

missed by a margin of 3.3 pps.

With a share of energy from renewable sources in

gross final energy consumption of 14.8 % in 2016,

Germany is on track to meet its 2020 renewable

energy target.

Since 2005, Germany decreased its primary energy

consumption by 6.8% to 296 Mtoe in 2016.

2020 renewable energy target in gross final

energy consumption: 18 %

2020 Energy efficiency, indicative national

2020 targets:



276.6 Mtoe (primary energy consumption);



194.3 Mtoe (final energy consumption).

Over the same period, final energy consumption

decreased by 1.1% to 216 Mtoe in 2016.

Early school leaving target: <10 %.

At 10.2 % in 2016, Germany is close to the European

target and to the national target and below the EU

average of 10.7 %.

Germany is continuing to increase tertiary attainment

which now stands at 33.2 % but remains below the

EU average of 39.1 % and the EU target of 40%. The

national target of 42% includes contrary to EU target

ISCED level 4 and has thus been met.

The number of long-term unemployed people (LFS

definition) was 723 000 in 2016, this represents a

reduction of 923 000, around 57%, since 2008.

Germany has already met the national Europe 2020

poverty target.

Tertiary education target: 40 % (EU 2020) or

42 % (national target).

Target for reducing the number of people at risk

of poverty or social exclusion, expressed as an

absolute number of people: 20 % reduction in

the number of long-term unemployed by 2020

as compared with 2008 (i.e. reduction by

320 000 long-term unemployed).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ANNEX B

MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES PROCEDURE SCOREBOARD

Table B.1:

The MIP Scoreboard for Germany (AMR 2018)

Thresholds

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Current account balance, % of GDP

3 year average

-4%/6%

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.1

7.6

8.1

External imbalances and competitiveness

Net international investment position

% of GDP

-35%

23.2

28.5

34.5

40.9

48.6

54.4

Real effective exchange rate - 42 trading

partners, HICP deflator

3 year % change

±5% (EA)

±11% (Non-EA)

-4.8

-9.0

-1.8

-0.4

-2.1

-2.6

Export market share - % of world exports

5 year % change

-6%

-9.0

-16.2

-12.1

-8.6

-2.5

2.8

Nominal unit labour cost index

(2010=100)

3 year % change

9% (EA)

12% (Non-EA)

5.7

2.7

5.9

7.0

5.6

5.2

House price index (2015=100), deflated

1 year % change

1.4

1.9

2.1

2.2

4.1

5.4

Private sector credit flow, consolidated

% of GDP

14%

1.6

1.3

2.0

0.5

3.0

3.8

Internal imbalances

Private sector debt, consolidated

% of GDP

133%

102.5

101.8

102.9

99.4

98.7

99.3

General government gross debt

% of GDP

60%

78.6

79.8

77.4

74.6

70.9

68.1

Unemployment rate

3 year average

10%

6.8

6.1

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.6

Total financial sector liabilities, non-

consolidated

1 year % change

16.5%

2.9

3.3

-6.2

4.5

2.9

5.2

Employment indicators

Activity rate - % of total population aged

15-64

3 year change in pp

-0.2 pp

1.4b

0.9

0.9b

0.4b

0.4

0.3

Long-term unemployment rate - % of

active population aged 15-74

3 year change in pp

0.5 pp

-1.1b

-1.1

-1.0

-0.6

-0.4

-0.6

Youth unemployment rate - % of active

population aged 15-24

3 year change in pp

2 pp

-1.9

-3.1

-2.0

-0.8

-0.7

Flags: b: Break in series.

1) This table provides data as published under the Alert Mechanism Report 2018, which reports data as of 24 Oct 2017. Please

note that figures reported in this table may therefore differ from more recent data elsewhere in this document. 2) Figures

highlighted are those falling outside the threshold established in the European Commission's Alert Mechanism Report.

Source:

European Commission 2017, Statistical Annex to the Alert Mechanism Report 2018, SWD(2017) 661.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ANNEX C

STANDARD TABLES

Table C.1:

Financial market indicators

(1)

Total assets of the banking sector (% of GDP)

Share of assets of the five largest banks (% of total assets)

Foreign ownership of banking system (% of total assets)

(2)

Financial soundness indicators:

- non-performing loans (% of total loans)

(3)

- capital adequacy ratio (%)

(4)

- return on equity (%)

Bank loans to the private sector (year-on-year % change)

(1)

Lending for house purchase (year-on-year % change)

Loan to deposit ratio

(1)

Central Bank liquidity as % of liabilities

Private debt (% of GDP)

Gross external debt (% of GDP)

- public

- private

Long-term interest rate spread versus Bund (basis points)*

Credit default swap spreads for sovereign securities (5-year)*

(2)

(1)

(2)

2012

298.3

33.0

4.1

1.7

17.4

1.1

1.9

82.5

101.8

49.7

41.4

0.0

32.7

2013

266.4

30.6

4.1

1.8

18.7

1.3

0.5

2.0

80.1

102.9

45.8

41.1

0.0

14.9

2014

266.1

32.1

4.4

2.5

17.3

2.5

1.3

2.4

79.2

1.1

99.4

48.8

41.1

0.0

12.7

2015

251.8

30.6

4.4

2.0

17.9

1.7

2.3

3.5

78.4

1.0

98.7

42.6

41.9

0.0

7.7

2016

247.9

31.4

7.1

1.8

18.1

2.2

3.7

78.5

1.1

99.3

38.3

41.1

0.0

11.5

2017

239.7

7.1

1.6

18.4

0.9

4.1

3.9

79.1

1.6

34.8

40.7

0.0

8.1

1) Latest data Q3 2017.. Includes not only banks but all monetary financial institutions excluding central banks

2) Latest data Q2 2017.

3) As per ECB definition of gross non-performing debt instruments

4) Quarterly values are not annualised

* Measured in basis points.

Source:

European Commission (long-term interest rates); World Bank (gross external debt); Eurostat (private debt); ECB (all

other indicators).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.2:

Headline Social Scoreboard indicators

2012

Equal opportunities and access to the labour market

Early leavers from education and training

(% of population aged 18-24)

Gender employment gap (pps)

Income inequality, measured as quintile share ratio (S80/S20)

At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate

(AROPE)

Young people neither in employment nor in education and

training (% of population aged 15-24)

Dynamic labour markets and fair working conditions

†

Employment rate (20-64 years)

Unemployment rate (15-74 years)

Gross disposable income of households in real terms per capita

(Index 2008=100)

Public support / Social protection and inclusion

Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on poverty

reduction

Children aged less than 3 years in formal childcare

Self-reported unmet need for medical care

Individuals who have basic or above basic overall digital skills

(% of population aged 16-74)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

10.5

4.3

19.6

7.1

9.8

9.6

4.6

20.3

6.3

9.5

9.1

5.1

20.6

6.4

10.1

8.7

4.8

20.0

6.2

10.3

8.2

4.6

19.7

6.7

8.0

76.9

5.4

77.3

5.2

77.7

5.0

104.1

78.0

4.6

105.2

78.6

4.1

106.7

79.0

3.8

33.7

24.0

1.6

34.0

28.0

1.6

33.2

27.5

1.6

33.5

25.9

0.5

67.0

34.8

32.6

0.3

68.0

The Social Scoreboard includes 14 headline indicators, of which 12 are currently used to compare Member States

performance. The indicators "participants in active labour market policies per 100 persons wanting to work" and

"compensation of employees per hour worked (in EUR)" are not used due to technical concerns by Member States. Possible

alternatives will be discussed in the relevant Committees.

(1) People at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE): individuals who are at risk of poverty (AROP) and/or suffering from

severe material deprivation (SMD) and/or living in households with zero or very low work intensity (LWI).

(2) Unemployed persons are all those who were not employed but had actively sought work and were ready to begin

working immediately or within two weeks.

(3) Gross disposable household income is defined in unadjusted terms, according to the draft Joint Employment Report 2018.

(4) Reduction in percentage of the risk of poverty rate, due to social transfers (calculated comparing at-risk-of poverty rates

before social transfers with those after transfers; pensions are not considered as social transfers in the calculation).

(5) Average of first three quarters of 2017 for the employment rate and gender employment gap.

Source:

Eurostat

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.3:

Labour market and education indicators

Labour market indicators

Activity rate (15-64)

Employment in current job by duration

From 0 to 11 months

From 12 to 23 months

From 24 to 59 months

60 months or over

Employment growth*

(% change from previous year)

Employment rate of women

(% of female population aged 20-64)

Employment rate of men

(% of male population aged 20-64)

Employment rate of older workers*

(% of population aged 55-64)

Part-time employment*

(% of total employment, aged 15-64)

Fixed-term employment*

(% of employees with a fixed term contract, aged 15-64)

Transition rate from temporary to permanent employment

(3-year average)

Long-term unemployment rate (% of labour force)

Youth unemployment rate

(% active population aged 15-24)

Gender gap in part-time employment

Gender pay gap (in undadjusted form)

Education and training indicators

Adult participation in learning

(% of people aged 25-64 participating in education and training)

Underachievement in education

Tertiary educational attainment (% of population aged 30-34 having

successfully completed tertiary education)

Variation in performance explained by students' socio-economic

status

2012

77.2

12.9

9.0

15.3

60.4

1.2

71.6

82.1

61.6

25.8

13.8

40.6

2.4

8.0

36.4

22.7

2012

7.9

17.7

31.8

16.9

2013

77.6

12.1

9.2

15.5

60.8

0.6

72.5

82.1

63.6

26.6

13.4

36.1

2.3

7.8

37.6

22.1

2013

7.9

32.9

2014

77.7

12.0

8.8

16.2

60.7

0.8

73.1

82.2

65.6

26.5

13.1

32.9

2.2

7.7

37.1

22.3

2014

8.0

31.4

2015

77.6

12.2

8.9

15.9

60.6

0.9

73.6

82.3

66.2

26.8

13.2

29.1

2.0

7.2

37.3

22.0

2015

8.1

17.2

32.3

15.8

2016

77.9

12.4

9.0

15.3

59.9

1.3

74.5

82.7

68.6

26.7

13.2

1.7

7.1

37.1

2016

8.5

33.2

2017

1.5

75.0

83.0

69.8

26.7

12.8

1.6

6.8

36.7

2017

* Non-scoreboard indicator

(1) Long-term unemployed are people who have been unemployed for at least 12 months.

(2) Difference between the average gross hourly earnings of male paid employees and of female paid employees as a

percentage of average gross hourly earnings of male paid employees. It is defined as "unadjusted", as it does not correct for

the distribution of individual characteristics (and thus gives an overall picture of gender inequalities in terms of pay). All

employees working in firms with ten or more employees, without restrictions for age and hours worked, are included.

(3) PISA (OECD) results for low achievement in mathematics for 15 year-olds.

(4) Impact of socio-economic and cultural status on PISA (OECD) scores. Values for 2012 and 2015 refer respectively to

mathematics and science.

(5) Average of first three quarters of 2017, unless for the youth unemployment rate (annual figure).

Source:

Eurostat, OECD

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.4:

Social inclusion and health indicators

2012

2013

9.5

2.2

10.9

3.1

1.1

0.6

0.2

27.7

3.3

18.9

7.0

4.3

13.2

19.4

16.1

8.6

5.4

0.5

3.0

9.9

10544

2014

9.6

2.2

10.9

3.1

1.1

0.6

0.2

27.7

3.4

18.7

7.1

4.2

12.7

19.6

16.7

9.9

5.0

0.3

3.6

10.0

10454

2015

9.7

2.3

10.9

3.2

1.0

0.6

0.3

27.9

3.5

18.9

7.1

4.2

12.5

18.5

16.7

9.7

4.4

0.7

3.2

9.8

10862

2016

19.3

16.5

9.5

3.7

0.2

3.8

9.6

11169

2017

Expenditure on social protection benefits* (% of GDP)

Sickness/healthcare

Disability

Old age and survivors

Family/children

Unemployment

Housing

Social exclusion n.e.c.

Total

of which: means-tested benefits

General government expenditure by function (% of GDP, COFOG)

Social protection

Health

Education

Out-of-pocket expenditure on healthcare (% of total health expenditure)

Children at risk of poverty or social exclusion (% of people

aged 0-17)*

At-risk-of-poverty rate (% of total population)

In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate (% of persons employed)

Severe material deprivation rate (% of total population)

Severe housing deprivation rate , by tenure status

Owner, with mortgage or loan

Tenant, rent at market price

Proportion of people living in low work intensity households

(% of people aged 0-59)

Poverty thresholds, expressed in national currency at constant prices*

Healthy life years (at the age of 65)

Females

Males

Aggregate replacement ratio for pensions

(at the age of 65)

Connectivity dimension of the Digital Economy and Society Inedex

(DESI)

GINI coefficient before taxes and transfers*

GINI coefficient after taxes and transfers*

9.3

2.2

11.0

3.1

1.1

0.6

0.2

27.4

3.3

18.8

6.8

4.2

13.9

18.4

16.1

7.8

4.9

0.5

3.5

9.9

10772

6.9

6.7

0.5

50.5

28.5

7.0

0.5

51.7

29.7

6.7

6.8

0.5

62.1

51.6

30.7

12.3

11.4

0.5

66.9

0.5

69.1

50.8

29.5

71.5

* Non-scoreboard indicator

(1) At-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP): proportion of people with an equivalised disposable income below 60 % of the national

equivalised median income.

(2) Proportion of people who experience at least four of the following forms of deprivation: not being able to afford to i) pay

their rent or utility bills, ii) keep their home adequately warm, iii) face unexpected expenses, iv) eat meat, fish or a protein

equivalent every second day, v) enjoy a week of holiday away from home once a year, vi) have a car, vii) have a washing

machine, viii) have a colour TV, or ix) have a telephone.

(3) Percentage of total population living in overcrowded dwellings and exhibiting housing deprivation.

(4) People living in households with very low work intensity: proportion of people aged 0-59 living in households where the

adults (excluding dependent children) worked less than 20 % of their total work-time potential in the previous 12 months.

(5) Ratio of the median individual gross pensions of people aged 65-74 relative to the median individual gross earnings of

people aged 50-59.

(6) Fixed broadband take up (33%), mobile broadband take up (22%), speed (33%) and affordability (11%), from the Digital

Scoreboard.Source: Eurostat, OECD

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.5:

Product market performance and policy indicators

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Performance indicators

Labour productivity (real, per person employed, year-on-year %

change)

Labour productivity in industry

Labour productivity in construction

Labour productivity in market services

Unit labour costs (ULC) (whole economy, year-on-year % change)

ULC in industry

ULC in construction

ULC in market services

Business environment

Time needed to enforce contracts

(1)

(days)

Time needed to start a business

(1)

12.57

5.60

-0.61

-11.80

-5.20

2.38

2010

394.0

14.5

0.55

2010

2.71

4.40

0.35

1.83

2.10

1.85

-0.34

0.79

1.11

2011

394.0

14.5

0.49

2011

2.80

4.30

0.59

-0.34

-0.98

2.53

3.63

4.67

2.65

2012

394.0

14.5

0.28

2012

2.87

4.20

1.05

-1.11

-1.16

1.47

4.00

2.82

0.91

2013

394.0

14.5

0.17

2013

2.82

4.30

1.05

3.88

1.90

0.44

-2.12

0.75

3.14

2014

459.0

14.5

0.58

2014

2.87

4.20

0.90

2003

1.80

3.38

3.03

1.87

1.52

0.45

0.08

0.88

3.26

3.20

2015

479.0

10.5

0.35

2015

2.92

4.20

0.97

2008

1.41

2.88

2.82

1.33

2.53

1.44

1.33

0.43

1.46

1.77

2016

499.0

10.5

0.38

2016

2.94

2013

1.29

2.71

2.65

1.27

(days)

(2)

Outcome of applications by SMEs for bank loans

Research and innovation

R&D intensity

General government expenditure on education as % of GDP

Persons with tertiary education and/or employed in science and

technology as % of total employment

Population having completed tertiary education

(3)

Young people with upper secondary level education

Trade balance of high technology products as % of GDP

Product and service markets and competition

(5)

OECD product market regulation (PMR) , overall

OECD PMR

(5)

, retail

OECD PMR , professional services

OECD PMR , network industries

(5)

(6)

(5)

(4)

(1) The methodologies, including the assumptions, for this indicator are shown in detail at:

http://www.doingbusiness.org/methodology.

(2) Average of the answer to question Q7B_a. '[Bank loan]: If you applied and tried to negotiate for this type of financing over

the past six months, what was the outcome?'. Answers were scored as follows: zero if received everything, one if received

most of it, two if only received a limited part of it, three if refused or rejected and treated as missing values if the application is

still pending or if the outcome is not known.

(3) Percentage population aged 15-64 having completed tertiary education.

(4) Percentage population aged 20-24 having attained at least upper secondary education.

(5) Index: 0 = not regulated; 6 = most regulated. The methodologies of the OECD product market regulation indicators are

shown in detail at: http://www.oecd.org/competition/reform/indicatorsofproductmarketregulationhomepage.htm

(6) Aggregate OECD indicators of regulation in energy, transport and communications.

Source:

European Commission; World Bank — Doing Business (for enforcing contracts and time to start a business); OECD (for

the product market regulation indicators); SAFE (for outcome of SMEs' applications for bank loans).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.6:

Green growth

Green growth performance

Macroeconomic

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity

Resource intensity (reciprocal of resource productivity)

Waste intensity

Energy balance of trade

Weighting of energy in HICP

Difference between energy price change and inflation

Real unit of energy cost

Ratio of environmental taxes to labour taxes

Environmental taxes

Sectoral

Industry energy intensity

Real unit energy cost for manufacturing industry excl.

refining

Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy

Electricity prices for medium-sized industrial users

Gas prices for medium-sized industrial users

Public R&D for energy

Public R&D for environmental protection

Municipal waste recycling rate

Share of GHG emissions covered by ETS*

Transport energy intensity

Transport carbon intensity

Security of energy supply

Energy import dependency

Aggregated supplier concentration index

Diversification of energy mix

kgoe / €

kg / €

% GDP

% of value

added

ratio

% GDP

kgoe / €

% of value

added

% GDP

€ / kWh

% GDP

kgoe / €

kg / €

HHI

2011

0.12

0.34

0.51

-3.6

12.30

7.0

10.5

0.10

2.2

0.10

12.9

10.45

0.12

0.04

0.03

0.02

63.0

51.6

0.56

1.42

61.9

13.9

0.24

2012

0.12

0.34

0.49

0.14

-3.6

12.55

3.6

10.4

0.10

2.1

0.10

12.8

10.61

0.13

0.04

0.02

65.2

51.5

0.56

1.40

61.5

13.8

0.24

2013

0.12

0.35

0.49

-3.4

12.40

3.2

9.9

0.09

2.1

0.10

12.4

10.45

0.14

0.05

0.03

63.8

51.1

0.55

1.41

62.7

15.0

0.25

2014

0.11

0.33

0.49

0.14

-2.8

11.94

-1.6

9.9

0.09

2.0

0.09

12.2

10.50

0.16

0.04

0.05

0.03

65.6

51.4

0.57

1.44

61.8

15.2

0.24

2015

0.11

0.32

0.46

-2.0

11.78

-5.5

0.09

1.9

0.09

10.38

0.15

0.04

0.03

66.7

50.3

0.59

1.51

61.9

18.1

0.24

2016

0.11

0.45

10.36

-5.0

1.9

0.09

0.15

0.03

0.04

0.03

66.1

50.0

0.60

63.5

0.25

All macro intensity indicators are expressed as a ratio of a physical quantity to GDP (in 2010 prices)

Energy intensity: gross inland energy consumption (in kgoe) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions (in kg CO2 equivalents) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Resource intensity: domestic material consumption (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Waste intensity: waste (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Energy balance of trade: the balance of energy exports and imports, expressed as % of GDP

Weighting of energy in HICP: the proportion of 'energy' items in the consumption basket used for the construction of the HICP

Difference between energy price change and inflation: energy component of HICP, and total HICP inflation (annual %

change)

Real unit energy cost: real energy costs as % of total value added for the economy

Industry energy intensity: final energy consumption of industry (in kgoe) divided by gross value added of industry (in 2010 EUR)

Real unit energy costs for manufacturing industry excluding refining : real costs as % of value added for manufacturing

sectors

Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy: share of gross value added of the energy-intensive industries in GDP

Electricity and gas prices for medium-sized industrial users: consumption band 500–20 00MWh and 10 000–100 000 GJ; figures

excl. VAT.

Recycling rate of municipal waste: ratio of recycled and composted municipal waste to total municipal waste

Public R&D for energy or for the environment: government spending on R&D for these categories as % of GDP

Proportion of GHG emissions covered by EU emissions trading system (ETS) (excluding aviation): based on GHG emissions

(excl land use, land use change and forestry) as reported by Member States to the European Environment Agency.

Transport energy intensity: final energy consumption of transport activity (kgoe) divided by transport industry gross value

added (in 2010 EUR)

Transport carbon intensity: GHG emissions in transport activity divided by gross value added of the transport sector

Energy import dependency: net energy imports divided by gross inland energy consumption incl. consumption of

international bunker fuels

Aggregated supplier concentration index: covers oil, gas and coal. Smaller values indicate larger diversification and hence

lower risk.

Diversification of the energy mix: Herfindahl index covering natural gas, total petrol products, nuclear heat, renewable

energies and solid fuels

* European Commission and European Environment Agency

Source:

European Commission and European Environment Agency (Share of GHG emissions covered by ETS); European

Commission (Environmental taxes over labour taxes and GDP); Eurostat (all other indicators)

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kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

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