kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

Europaudvalget 2018
KOM (2018) 0120
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EUROPEAN

COMMISSION

Brussels, 7.3.2018

SWD(2018) 217 final

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

Country Report The Netherlands 2018

Including an In-Depth Review on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic

imbalances

Accompanying the document

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN

PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE

EUROGROUP

2018 European Semester: Assessment of progress on structural reforms, prevention and

correction of macroeconomic imbalances, and results of in-depth reviews under

Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011

{COM(2018) 120 final}

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

CONTENTS

Executive summary

1. Economic situation and outlook

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

3. Summary of the main findings from the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure

in-depth review

3.1. Imbalances and their gravity

3.2. Evolution, prospects and policy responses

3.3. Overall assessment

4. Reform priorities

4.1. Public finances and taxation

4.2. Financial sector

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

4.4. Investment*

4.5. Sectoral policies

Annex A: Overview table

Annex B: Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard

Annex C: Standard tables

References

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1:

Table 2.1:

Table 3.1:

Table 4.1.1:

Table 4.2.1:

Table 4.4.1:

Table 4.4.2:

Table 4.5.1:

Table B.1:

Table C.1:

Key economic and financial indicators

CSR progress

MIP assessment matrix (*) – the Netherlands

Total public funding for R&D and innovation, 2015-2017

Financial soundness indicators

Investment by sector NL and euro area (% of GDP)

Non-financial corporate sector income sheet

Total productivity growth, 1995-2015 (%)

The MIP scoreboard for the Netherlands (AMR 2018)

Financial market indicators

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Table C.2:

Table C.3:

Table C.4:

Table C.5:

Table C.6:

Headline Social Scoreboard indicators

Labour market and education indicators

Social inclusion and health indicators

Product market performance and policy indicators

Green growth

LIST OF GRAPHS

Graph 1.1:

Graph 1.2:

Graph 1.3:

Graph 1.4:

Graph 1.5:

GDP per capita (volume, index 2010=100)

GDP volume and pre-crisis trend

GDP Growth and contributions

Labour market developments

Wage growth: actual and predicted based on economic fundamentals

Source: European Commission (see Kiss and Arpaia, 2011)

Graph 1.6:

Graph 1.7:

Graph 1.8:

Graph 2.1:

Graph 4.1.1:

Graph 4.2.1:

Graph 4.2.2:

Graph 4.2.3:

Graph 4.2.4:

Graph 4.2.5:

Graph 4.2.6:

Graph 4.2.7:

Graph 4.2.8:

Graph 4.3.1:

Graph 4.3.2:

Graph 4.3.3:

Graph 4.3.4:

Graph 4.3.5:

Graph 4.3.6:

Graph 4.3.7:

Graph 4.4.1:

Graph 4.4.2:

Graph 4.4.3:

Graph 4.4.4:

Graph 4.4.5:

Graph 4.4.6:

Graph 4.4.7:

Trends in labour costs and its components

Average annual real income gain/loss compared to previous generation*

Net wealth by age

Overall multiannual implementation of 2011-2017 CSRs to date

Average headline budget balance in different states of the economy

Size of the financial intermediaries and of the debt securities market

House price developments

House price valuation

Private debt

Debt of large non-financial corporations

Intra-group-to-total debt

Interest paid and received by multinationals

Compulsory payment wedge (2016)

Main labour market developments

Relationship between unemployment and nominal wage growth (2001-2016)

Share of part-time work with and without children (2016)

Female labour market participation (with child)

Employment (20-64 year) by type (y-o-y changes)

Self-employed by sector ( % of total employment in the sector)

Transition rate from temporary to permanent employment by quarter

Investment by asset

Domestic and foreign investment

Net lending/borrowing by sector

Non-financial corporate sector saving and investment

Gross savings by non-financial corporations

Gross operating surplus and components

Net operating surplus by sector

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Graph 4.4.8:

Graph 4.4.9:

Net distributed income ratios

Corporate savings by firm size

Graph 4.4.10: Current account

Graph 4.4.11: Trade balance goods by product group (2016)

Graph 4.4.12: Trade balance services by product group (2016)

Graph 4.4.13: NIIP and cumulative current account surplus

Graph 4.4.14: Euro area output and aggregate demand

Graph 4.5.1:

Graph 4.5.2:

Graph 4.5.3:

Graph 4.5.4:

Contributions to changes in growth of real value added

Productivity development by sector

Productivity growth by firm productivity level (leaders/laggards)

R&D intensity in manufacturing

LIST OF BOXES

Box 2.1: Tangible results delivered through EU support to structural change in the Netherlands

Box 3.1: Euro area spillovers

Box 4.3.1: Monitoring performance in light of the European Pillar of Social Rights

Box 4.3.1: Implications of temporary employment on income

Box 4.4.1: Investment challenges and reforms in the Netherlands

Box 4.5.1: Policy highlight: Public procurement expertise centre in the Netherlands

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Netherlands’ economic expansion remains

strong and offers a window of opportunity to

boost the reform momentum.

In its coalition

agreement 2018-2021, the new government

announced a number of measures in the field of

fiscal policy, housing market, labour market and

pensions. Ensuring that these measures are swiftly

implemented would improve domestic demand and

support potential growth. While measures have

been announced to reduce the debt bias for

households, incentives to incur debt remain. The

labour market continued its recovery in 2017 and

performed well across the board, although the

challenges in the field of pensions and labour

market segmentation remain.(

)

Economic growth accelerated to 3.1 % in 2017,

the fastest in a decade.

The solid economic

performance in 2017 was broad based, with both

domestic demand and net exports making a

positive contribution to growth. The European

Commission’s Interim Winter 2018 forecast

projects economic growth of 2.9 % for 2018 and

2.5 % for 2019, with the domestic economy’s

strong performance expected to continue. The

growth contribution from net exports is expected

to be fairly limited given strong domestic demand,

which drives up imports.

The investment rate has returned to its long-

term average.

Residential investment volumes in

particular have been highly cyclical, dropping

sharply after the crisis and experiencing double-

digit growth in recent years. Corporate investment

in equipment grew in line with GDP and is

expected to accelerate on the back of rising

capacity utilisation rates. Public and private

investment in R&D increased to 2.0 % in 2016,

falling short of the Europe 2020 target of 2.5 % of

GDP. While barriers to private investment appear

to be minor, procedures for obtaining building

(

) This report assesses the economy of the Netherlands in the

light of the European Commission’s Annual Growth

Survey published on 22 November 2017. In the survey, the

Commission calls on EU Member States to implement

reforms to make the European economy more productive,

resilient and inclusive. In so doing, Member States should

focus their efforts on the three elements of the virtuous

triangle of economic policy – boosting investment,

pursuing structural reforms and ensuring responsible fiscal

policies. At the same time, the Commission published the

Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) that initiated the seventh

round of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure. The

AMR found that the Netherlands warranted an in depth

review which is presented in this report.

permits are lengthy compared to other Member

States.

A buoyant housing market boosts household

assets, but may also lead to further imbalances.

Driven by low interest rates, house prices and

transaction volumes have increased sharply in

recent years. Rising house prices have positive

wealth effects and gradually lift affected

households out of negative housing equity. At

national level, house price valuation indicators do

not point to overvaluation. However, there are

signs that house price increases in some regions

cannot be explained by fundamental factors alone.

Nominal debt levels have started to rise again,

albeit much slower than house price growth, which

limits financial vulnerabilities.

Wage growth remained moderate despite a

tightening labour market.

In 2016, wage growth

outpaced productivity gains, resulting in a small

increase in the nominal unit labour cost. However,

taken over a longer period wage growth has been

below the level that could be expected based on

fundamental drivers such as unemployment,

productivity and inflation. In the next years, wage

growth is expected to increase in line with further

labour market tightening.

The new government announced a large

discretionary fiscal stimulus package for 2018-

2021.

The budget surplus is expected to have

increased to 0.7 % in 2017, while the general

government debt-to-GDP ratio fell below the 60 %

threshold. The government announced increased

spending on social affairs (in particular child-

related benefits), defence, education and

innovation. The budgetary framework has been

amended to exclude a number of cyclical

expenditures from its fixed budgetary ceilings.

This improves its stabilisation function on the

expenditure side, while increasing the cyclicality

of the budget. Fiscal sustainability has improved

thanks to headline budget surpluses, higher GDP

growth and a favourable public debt trajectory.

This has led to the Netherlands being designated as

‘low risk’ based on the Commission’s baseline

medium-term projections.

Some indicators suggest that the Netherlands'

tax rules are used by multinationals engaged in

aggressive tax planning structures.

The

Netherlands has taken steps to amend certain

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

Executive summary

aspects of its tax system that may facilitate

aggressive tax planning, and the government has

announced a reform agenda to further amend

certain aspects of the tax system. For the time

being, the absence of withholding taxes on

dividend payments by co-operatives, the

possibility for hybrid mismatches using the limited

partnership (CV) and the absence of withholding

taxes on royalties and interest payments, combined

with the lack of some anti-abuse rules, may

facilitate aggressive tax planning.

The Netherlands has made some progress in

addressing

the

2017

country-specific

recommendations (CSRs).

Substantial progress

has been made in supporting potential growth and

domestic demand; some progress has been made in

R&D investment. The government announced that

it will speed up the cut in tax relief on mortgage

interest payments, and included it in the coalition

agreement. However, only some steps were taken

to reduce remaining distortions in the housing

market, leading to some progress overall on

CSR 1. The Netherlands has made limited progress

in tackling remaining barriers to hiring staff on

permanent contracts. No concrete measures have

been taken yet to reduce distortive tax incentives

that favour self-employment or to increase the

social protection coverage for the self-employed.

The government reaffirmed its intention to reform

the second pension pillar, although no new

measures have been taken since the CSRs were

adopted.. Limited progress has been made in

creating conditions to promote higher real wage

growth while respecting the role of social partners,

leading to limited progress overall on CSR 2.

On progress in reaching the national targets under

the Europe 2020 Strategy (see also Annex A), the

Netherlands is doing well on employment,

greenhouse gas emissions, energy efficiency, early

school leaving and tertiary education attainment.

However, more effort is needed on R&D

investment, renewable energy and poverty

reduction.

The Netherlands performs relatively well on the

indicators of the Social Scoreboard supporting

the European Pillar of Social Rights.

The labour

market performance and social outcomes are good

and inequality is low. Few young people are not in

employment, education or training. The share of

people at risk of poverty or social exclusion is low.

However, certain issues merit attention such as low

but slightly increasing income inequality and good

but weakening impact of social transfers in

reducing poverty.

The main findings of the in-depth review

contained in this report, and the related policy

challenges, are as follows:



Housing

market

institutions

have

contributed to high household debt levels,

and inefficiencies remain.

Owner-occupancy

rates are high and have been strengthened by

the generous tax relief on mortgage interest

payments. Before the crisis, interest-only

mortgages and very high loan-to-value ratios

drove up household indebtedness to around

120 % of GDP in 2009. Although it is falling

gradually, the household debt-to-GDP ratio is

still twice the euro area average. While

mortgage tax relief is being cut gradually, the

effective

subsidy

debt-financed

homeownership remains substantial.



The financial attractiveness of owner-

occupancy and social housing partly

accounts for the underdeveloped private

rental market.

The social housing and rent-

controlled sector is large compared to other

Member States. The private rental market is the

only non-subsidised housing sector and

remains underdeveloped. The lack of a well-

functioning middle segment on the rental

market encourages households to buy rather

than rent, leading to high debt-to-income ratios

and financial vulnerability at a young age.



The current account continues to show a

marked surplus.

The Netherlands has had a

current account surplus of 6 % of GDP on

average for the last 30 years. This high level is

mostly accounted for by the non-financial

corporate (NFC) sector. A comparatively large

corporate savings surplus is rooted in a

relatively high operating surplus, together with

high foreign investment income and low levels

of profit distribution by multinationals. After

the crisis, household debt reduction together

with fiscal consolidation saw the current

account surplus peak at 10.3 % of GDP in

2012, after which it declined to 9 % in 2016.

The European Commission’s Autumn 2017

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Executive summary

forecast projects a gradual decline in the

current account balance following buoyant

domestic demand. Simulations in this report

show that an increase in public investment

would reduce the trade surplus and would also

be passed on to the euro area through potential

spillover effects, leading to higher economic

growth of the other euro area countries.



The second pillar pension system plays a key

role in shaping household finances,

especially in combination with high

mortgage debt.

While the pension system

performs well on pension adequacy and fiscal

sustainability, it holds drawbacks in terms of

intergenerational fairness, transparency and

flexibility. Moreover, second pillar pension

contributions are high and fluctuate depending

on the financial performance of pension funds.

As such, it may affect household spending in a

pro-cyclical way, with risks seemingly to

weigh on young age groups as lower indexation

and higher pension contributions have been the

primary means of adjustment. Importantly,

households combine substantial housing and

pension wealth with high mortgage debt.

However, the former are highly illiquid and

unevenly distributed across generations. This

makes households vulnerable to economic

shocks and accentuates the pro-cyclical

dynamics of household finances.

Other key structural issues analysed in this report

which point to particular challenges facing the

Dutch economy, are as follows:



Despite a reduction in the tax burden, non-

tax compulsory payments are expected to

remain high.

The Dutch government

announced a tax reform for 2019 that will

reduce the number of tax brackets from four to

two and lower the top tax rate from 52 % to

49 %. The overall income tax burden is

expected to decline. However, non-tax

compulsory payments such as pension

contributions and healthcare premiums drive up

the total compulsory payment wedge on labour.

While this may be equitable, it could also give

rise to other inefficiencies, especially in terms

of the above-mentioned link between

compulsory

pension

contributions

and

household finances.



The labour market continued its recovery in

2017 and performed well in terms of job

creation, although the challenges of labour

market segmentation and integration of

people with a migrant background remain.

Total employment rose steadily, while the

unemployment rate continued to fall in 2017.

Flexible employment constitutes a relatively

large and increasing share of the labour market.

The self-employed are not obliged to be

insured against labour-related risks such as

accidents at work, unemployment and old age

(second pillar); which could affect the

sustainability of the social security system in

the long run. The new government announced

several measures potentially addressing

segmentation, but the specifics, timeframe and

possible impact remain unclear. Finally, there

is still untapped labour potential in the high

number of women working part-time and also

people born outside the EU given that their

employment rate lags behind that of those born

in the Netherlands.



School education outcomes are above the EU

average, but have worsened since 2012.

the 2015 Programme for International Student

Assessment (PISA), the proportion of low

achievers increased in all three core fields.

Differences between schools have one of the

biggest impact on pupils’ performance, and are

strongly linked to the different educational

tracks they offer.



According to worldwide rankings, the

Netherlands has an efficient and productive

R&D sector, but growth-friendly public

expenditure is lower than that of top

performers.

The country’s high-performing

education system and scientific base provide a

sound basis for boosting innovation and growth

capacity through education and R&D activities.

Although substantial additional investment has

been announced, public R&D intensity is set to

decline.



The reduction of CO2 emissions is on track,

but the share of renewable energy

production is low.

The Netherlands is

expected to miss its national target of 14 %

renewable energy production by 2020, with the

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Executive summary

National Energy Outlook 2017 estimating a

renewable energy share of 12.5 % by 2020.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ECONOMIC SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

the new government’s fiscal plans, public

consumption is set to increase by almost 3 % in

real terms in 2018 and 2019. Corporate investment

in equipment is expected to grow as capacity

utilisation rates have reached pre-crisis levels.

However, this is partly offset by a slowdown in

residential investment, which has recorded double-

digit growth in recent years. The growth

contribution from net exports is expected to be

fairly limited given strong domestic demand,

which drives up imports (see Graph 1.3).

Graph 1.2:

200

190

180

GDP growth

Economic growth has accelerated to 3.1 % in

2017, the highest rate in 10 years.

This expansion

follows on the back of a relatively strong recovery

in recent years, but it should be seen in the context

of a prolonged double dip in 2012-2013. While the

acceleration of economic growth in 2016 was

mostly driven by labour utilisation (the number of

hours worked), both labour utilisation and

productivity growth contributed to GDP per capita

growth in 2017 (by 2 percentage points and 1

percentage point respectively). In per capita terms,

GDP is 3 % above pre-crisis peaks and is growing

rapidly (see Graph 1.1). That said, under the

assumption that economic growth returns to

potential growth rates after 2019, the permanent

impact of the crisis is estimated at roughly 4 % of

GDP (see Graph 1.2) (

Graph 1.1:

110

108

GDP volume and pre-crisis trend

170

160

150

140

130

GDP

pre-crisis trend

GDP per capita (volume, index 2010=100)

106

104

102

Billion EUR

120

110

100

Index, 2010=100

01Q1

02Q2

04Q4

06Q1

07Q2

08Q3

09Q4

12Q2

13Q3

14Q4

16Q1

17Q2

18Q3

100

Netherlands

Source:

European Commission. The pre-crisis trend is

approximated by a linear estimate on Q1-2001 to Q4-2007.

Germany

Belgium

United Kingdom

Inflation

France

05Q3 07Q1 08Q3 10Q1 11Q3 13Q1 14Q3 16Q1 17Q3

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

As the business cycle matures, private

consumption is expected to be the main growth

driver.

According to the European Commission’s

Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast, real GDP

is projected to increase by 2.9 % in 2018 and

2.5 % in 2019. Private consumption is set to pick

up as wage and employment growth improve

household disposable income, while rising house

prices lead to positive wealth effects. As a result of

(

) Based on the European Commission Winter 2018 Interim

forecast and under the assumption that the economy grows

according to trend after 2019.

Inflation is picking up.

Driven mainly by energy

prices, consumer price inflation is expected to

reach 1.3 % in 2017 after remaining muted in 2015

and 2016. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to

pick up further based on higher wage growth,

which drives up prices in particular in the service

sector. In 2019, inflation is expected to increase to

2.3 % as the planned increases in indirect taxes

(VAT and energy taxes) kick in.

19Q4

03Q3

11Q1

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1. Economic situation and outlook

Graph 1.3:

GDP Growth and contributions

market, this is expected to result in an acceleration

of nominal wage growth over the coming years.

Nevertheless, wage growth remains low in

comparison with fundamental drivers (see Graph

1.5).

Graph 1.4:

Labour market developments

8600

8400

pps.

-1

-2

-3

thousand persons

9200

9000

8800

17*

18*

19*

Net exports

Private consumpt.

Investment

Inventories

Public consumpt.

Real GDP (y-o-y%)

8200

labour force

8000

7800

employment

unemployment rate (rhs)

Source:

European Commission (Winter 2018 Interi,m

Economic forecast)

Jul 15

Jul 16

Jan 15

Jan 16

Jan 17

Oct 16

Oct 15

Jul 17

Employment growth accelerated further in

2017.

Employment growth increased from 1 %

year-on-year in 2015 and early 2016, to 2.1 % in

2017. The increase in the number of employed

persons is mainly due to an increase in temporary

and self-employment, although the number of

permanent contracts has also increased in the final

quarters of 2017 after a period of negative growth.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 % of the labour

force in 2017, down from 6.0 % in 2016 and well

below the EU average. Long-term unemployment,

which increased substantially since 2009, declined

for all age groups. In Q3-2017 it reached 1.9 % of

the labour force, down from 2.4 % in Q3-2016 (see

Section 4.3). While overall labour market

participation remains high, an untapped potential

remains, especially related to part-time

employment of women and for people with a

migrant background.

Wage growth has been moderate in the recent

years, but is expected to pick up as a result of a

tightening labour market.

In 2017, nominal

compensation per employee is expected to have

increased moderately by 1.7 %. This is below the

level that could be expected based on the level of

the economic fundamentals. For 2018, trade unions

have formulated substantially higher wage

demands compared to previous years. In

combination with a tightening of the labour

Source:

European Commission (Statistics Netherlands;

seasonally adjusted data)

Graph 1.5:

Wage growth: actual and predicted based on

economic fundamentals

-1

Prediction based on inflation, productivity and

unemployment

Actual nominal wage growth

Source: European Commission (see Kiss and Arpaia, 2011)

Unit labour costs are expected to increase in the

coming years.

In 2016, real compensation per

employee increased by 0.6 %, which resulted in a

slight increase in unit labour costs (0.3 %).

However, in 2017 and 2018, a tightening of the

labour market is expected to push up real wage

Oct 17

Apr 15

Apr 16

Apr 17

Labour market

% of labour force

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

growth. In combination with low productivity

growth, this is expected to result in a stronger

increase in unit labour costs (1.8 % in 2018). This

level is above the average in the euro area,

indicating the risk of a slight loss in

competitiveness. However, from a long run

perspective cost competiveness in the Netherlands

evolved broadly in line with the euro area as the

accumulated increase in unit labour cost in the

period 2002-2016 was very similar in the

Netherlands (24.5 %) as compared to the euro area

(25.4 %) (see Graph 1.6).

Graph 1.6:

shows the average income difference with the

previous birth cohort). For most birth cohorts, this

income gain is roughly EUR 3 000 per year.

Although there are increasingly few data points, it

is striking that very young income earners on

average earn less than previous generations. This

could be a consequence of the economic downturn

during the years after 2008.

Graph 1.7:

Average annual real income gain/loss

compared to previous generation*

Trends in labour costs and its components

Thousand EUR

% yoy

-1

-2

-3

-4

-2

-3

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17*18*19*

Inflation (GDP deflator growth)

Real Compensation per Employee

Productivity Contribution (negative sign)

Nominal unit labour cost

ULC in Euro Area

Source:

European Commission (Statistics Netherlands,

household income data). *) 5 year birth cohort.

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

Social developments

Income inequality is relatively low compared to

the EU average.

The Netherlands displays

comparatively good outcomes with respect to

social protection and inclusion. By international

standards poverty is low, and taxes and transfers

are effective in reducing income inequality and

poverty. However, the capacity of the social

system to reduce poverty shows signs of

weakening (see Section 4.3).

There are signs that intergenerational income

inequality is increasing.

In theory, young cohorts

typically earn more than older generations at the

same age as economic growth translates into real

income gains over time. This is also largely

supported by income data for Dutch households:

for any given age, younger birth cohorts earn more

than previous birth cohorts (see Graph 1.7 which

Inequality in net wealth is partly explained by

household debt and life cycle patterns.

The

relatively high inequality in net wealth is to a large

extent driven by high mortgage debt and negative

net housing equity ('underwater mortgages', see

Section 4.2.4). Excluding households with

negative wealth, inequality in net wealth is much

lower and more in line with other EU countries.

Life cycle patterns are also important. As wealth

represents cumulated savings over the years, a

large proportion of total net wealth is concentrated

among relatively old households. Median net

wealth grows until the age of 65 where it peaks

around EUR 100 000, after which it starts to

decline (see Graph 1.8). Net wealth inequality

tends to be smaller within age groups than

between, which implies that the distribution is less

skewed from a life cycle perspective.

born 1945-1950

born 1985-1990

born 1980-1985

born 1975-1980

born 1970-1975

born 1965-1970

born 1960-1965

born 1955-1960

born 1950-1955

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

Graph 1.8:

300

250

200

Net wealth by age

75th percentile

mean

median

25th percentile

150

100

-50

expenditure growth below the level of nominal

GDP growth. The structural budget balance, which

is the nominal budget balance corrected for the

impact of the economic cycle and one-off

measures, is expected to have reached 0.3 % of

GDP in 2017, and set to decline to -0.2 % in 2018

and -0.1 % in 2019. The debt-to-GDP ratio fell

below 60 % during the course of 2017. This was

mainly due to sizable stock-flow adjustments

resulting from the reprivatisation of financial

institutions, and strong nominal GDP growth. Debt

is expected to continue to decline to 51.5 % of

GDP in 2019.

50-55

55-60

60-65

65-70

70-75

over 75

Thousand EUR

<25

25-30

30-35

35-40

40-45

Source:

European Commission (based on Statistics

Netherlands wealth data for 2014)

External position

The large current account surplus is expected to

have increased in 2017, and to decline only

slowly in the next years.

Following muted

domestic demand (see European Commission

2017b, Section 1.2) and a sharp recovery in

international trade after the crisis, the current

account surplus peaked at more than 10 % of GDP

in 2012. Largely as a result of declining net

primary incomes, in particular lower income from

foreign direct investment, the current account

surplus fell to 9 % of GDP in 2016. However,

increased profitability of the foreign activities of

Dutch multinationals led to an increase in the

balance of primary incomes in early 2017, which

improved the overall current account balance.

Looking ahead, the trade surplus is projected to

continue to decline, albeit slowly as buoyant

domestic demand coincides with growth in world

trade, which is set to continue to fuel Dutch export

growth.

Public finances

Despite the new government announcing a

substantial fiscal stimulus package, the budget

is expected to remain in surplus over the

coming years.

The headline government surplus is

set to fall from 0.7 % of GDP in 2017 to 0.5 % in

2018, and to rebound to 0.9 % in 2019 based on

robust revenue growth and government

45-50

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

1. Economic situation and outlook

Table 1.1:

Key economic and financial indicators

forecast

2004-07 2008-12 2013-14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2.8

0.0

0.6

2.3

2.2

3.2

2.9

2.5

1.7

0.9

0.5

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.9

0.7

3.4

4.2

6.8

6.4

-0.4

1.5

-2.6

2.1

1.9

-0.4

0.1

-1.0

3.3

2.6

2.0

-0.2

11.0

6.5

8.4

1.6

1.2

5.3

4.3

4.1

Real GDP (y-o-y)

Potential growth (y-o-y)

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Public consumption (y-o-y)

Gross fixed capital formation (y-o-y)

Exports of goods and services (y-o-y)

Imports of goods and services (y-o-y)

Contribution to GDP growth:

Domestic demand (y-o-y)

Inventories (y-o-y)

Net exports (y-o-y)

Contribution to potential GDP growth:

Total Labour (hours) (y-o-y)

Capital accumulation (y-o-y)

Total factor productivity (y-o-y)

Output gap

Unemployment rate

GDP deflator (y-o-y)

Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, y-o-y)

Nominal compensation per employee (y-o-y)

Labour productivity (real, person employed, y-o-y)

Unit labour costs (ULC, whole economy, y-o-y)

Real unit labour costs (y-o-y)

Real effective exchange rate (ULC, y-o-y)

Real effective exchange rate (HICP, y-o-y)

Savings rate of households (net saving as percentage of net

disposable income)

Private credit flow, consolidated (% of GDP)

Private sector debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

of which household debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

of which non-financial corporate debt, consolidated (% of GDP)

Gross non-performing debt (% of total debt instruments and total

loans and advances) (2)

Corporations, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of GDP)

Corporations, gross operating surplus (% of GDP)

Households, net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) (% of GDP)

Deflated house price index (y-o-y)

Residential investment (% of GDP)

Current account balance (% of GDP), balance of payments

Trade balance (% of GDP), balance of payments

Terms of trade of goods and services (y-o-y)

Capital account balance (% of GDP)

Net international investment position (% of GDP)

Net marketable external debt (% of GDP) (1)

Gross marketable external debt (% of GDP) (1)

Export performance vs. advanced countries (% change over 5 years)

Export market share, goods and services (y-o-y)

Net FDI flows (% of GDP)

General government balance (% of GDP)

Structural budget balance (% of GDP)

General government gross debt (% of GDP)

Tax-to-GDP ratio (%)

Tax rate for a single person earning the average wage (%)

Tax rate for a single person earning 50% of the average wage (%)

2.0

0.1

0.7

-0.4

0.0

0.4

-0.3

0.1

0.8

2.8

0.1

-0.7

2.0

-0.4

0.6

0.4

0.7

-0.4

5.2

2.0

1.5

2.4

1.7

0.7

-1.3

-0.1

-0.5

0.2

0.5

0.2

-1.4

4.8

1.1

1.9

2.4

-0.2

2.4

1.4

0.2

-0.7

0.1

0.2

-3.1

7.4

0.8

1.4

1.9

1.2

0.6

-0.1

0.7

1.3

0.6

0.4

0.3

-1.8

6.9

0.8

0.2

-0.3

1.3

-1.5

-2.2

-4.9

-3.1

0.8

0.5

0.3

-1.2

6.0

0.6

0.1

1.2

1.1

0.3

-0.3

0.2

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

4.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

0.6

-0.4

0.7

0.3

0.8

0.7

0.4

1.0

4.0

1.4

1.6

2.7

1.8

0.4

1.7

1.2

0.7

0.5

1.6

3.5

2.1

2.3

3.1

2.5

0.4

0.8

3.7

10.9

214.5

107.0

107.6

9.4

27.5

-2.0

2.4

6.1

7.7

8.5

0.0

-0.4

-5.5

-64.9

329.4

6.9

-1.5

4.7

-0.4

46.6

36.4

32.5

23.3

5.7

5.2

224.3

116.0

108.3

2.4

10.1

28.4

0.9

-3.7

4.8

7.3

8.5

-0.5

-0.3

10.4

-74.1

391.6

0.8

-2.6

5.9

-3.7

-3.0

59.7

36.5

32.1

21.4

7.6

-0.1

224.6

112.6

112.0

2.8

8.5

28.0

3.2

-4.2

3.0

9.2

10.8

0.1

0.0

39.8

-57.0

411.3

-4.7

0.9

5.2

-2.3

-0.6

67.9

37.5

32.3

20.6

6.5

-0.8

225.1

109.6

115.5

2.4

3.7

28.9

1.7

3.4

3.5

8.7

10.6

1.2

-5.0

55.1

-44.2

422.3

-5.1

-2.0

11.8

-2.1

-0.9

64.6

37.8

30.4

19.2

6.4

1.5

221.5

107.5

114.0

2.2

7.2

28.2

0.9

4.4

4.0

8.5

11.0

0.6

-0.2

67.7

-35.8

416.7

-2.7

3.2

12.8

0.4

0.9

61.8

39.3

30.5

16.1

7.1

28.2

0.7

9.1

-0.7

0.7

0.3

57.7

39.6

7.1

27.9

0.5

8.7

-0.3

0.5

-0.2

54.9

39.6

6.5

27.2

0.5

8.4

-0.1

0.9

-0.1

51.5

39.7

(1) NIIP excluding direct investment and portfolio equity shares

(2) Domestic banking groups and stand-alone banks, EU and non-EU foreign-controlled subsidiaries and EU and non-EU

foreign-controlled branches.

Source:

Eurostat and ECB as of 30 Jan 2018, where available; European Commission for forecast figures (Winter 2018 Interim

forecast for real GDP and HICP, Autumn forecast 2017 otherwise)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

PROGRESS WITH COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS

excessive deficit. From 2009-2013, a significant

consolidation effort led to the abrogation of the

excessive deficit procedure in 2013 and has

ensured continuous improvement in the budgetary

situation ever since. In 2017, the Netherlands are

expected to have reached a government budget

surplus of 0.7 % of GDP and a debt-to-GDP ratio

below the 60 % threshold for the first time since

2011. During the fiscal consolidation period,

public funding to research and innovation has

stabilised at around 0.9 % of GDP. This fully

meets the recommendation to protect such

investments. Nevertheless, at 2.0 % of GDP, the

total R&D intensity has stagnated below the target

of 2.5 %. This underachievement is mostly the

result of low private R&D spending (1.2 % of

GDP in 2016). While the figure is only slightly

below the euro area average (1.4 % of GDP) it is

considerably lower than in other Member States

with similar levels of educational attainment and

economic development (e.g. Sweden 2.3 % of

GDP, and Germany 2 % of GDP).

In recent years, the Netherlands has taken

substantial measures reforming the long-term

care and retirement age, and announced plans

to reform the second pillar of the pension

system.

A major reform has been implemented to

decentralise long-term care, aimed at achieving

efficiency gains and providing tailor-made support.

Nevertheless, expenditure in this sector is still

projected to increase relatively fast compared to

the EU average, among others due to the

implementation of a framework to improve the

quality of long-term care (‘Kwaliteitskader

Verpleeghuiszorg’). The statutory retirement age

in the first pillar is being increased in steps to 67

by 2021 and is linked to life expectancy thereafter.

The government announced that it plans to reform

the second pillar of the pension system based on

the previously started dialogue with social

partners. Specific measures and the exact timeline

have not yet been specified.

Important reforms in the housing market have

been taken, but distortions remain.

In line with

2017 CSR 1, the government has decided to

accelerate the reduction of the generous mortgage

interest tax deductibility (MID) from currently

0.5 pp to 3 pps per year from 2020 onwards until

the MID reaches 37 % in 2023. A requirement to

repay the mortgage principal in order to qualify for

Progress with the implementation of the

recommendations addressed to the Netherlands

in 2017(

) has to be seen in a longer-term

perspective since the introduction of the

European Semester in 2011.

Looking at the

multi-annual assessment of the implementation of

the CSRs since these were first adopted, 78 % of

all the CSRs addressed to Netherlands have

recorded at least 'some progress'. 22 % of these

CSRs recorded 'limited' or 'no progress' (see

Graph 2.1). Substantial progress and full

implementation have been achieved in several

areas of the labour market, for instance increasing

the statutory retirement age and enhancing the

participation of older workers, people with

disabilities and migrants. Other areas with

substantial progress have been the reform of the

long-term care as well as the protection of

expenditure directly relevant for growth such as

education, innovation and research.

Graph 2.1:

Overall multiannual implementation of 2011-

2017 CSRs to date

30%

13%

No Progress

Limited Progress

Some Progress

Substantial Progress

Full Implementation

17%

30%

* The overall assessment of the country-specific

recommendations related to fiscal policy excludes

compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

** 2011-2012: Different CSR assessment categories.

*** The multiannual CSR assessment looks at the

implementation since the CSRs were first adopted until the

2018 Country Report.

Source:

European Commission

The Netherlands has secured a timely and

durable correction of its excessive deficit.

Following the house price correction and the

financial crisis, the Netherlands went through a

period marked by an increasing debt-to-GDP ratio

and a worsening budget balance, leading to an

(

) For the assessment of other reforms implemented in the

past, see in particular section 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and 4.5,

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

tax relief had previously been introduced as well.

On the rental sector, some progress has been made

by implementing a point system that allows for

more market-oriented rents and higher rent

increases in the regulated sector for tenants with an

income above a certain threshold. By introducing

short-term rental contracts, the government

provides scope for a more flexible rental market,

but it is too early to assess the impact of these

reforms. Despite the reforms, distortions remain in

the housing market, creating a debt bias and

influencing the decision to buy or rent.

Substantial progress has been made on

improving participation in the labour market,

although important challenges remain on

labour market segmentation.

In recent years, the

Dutch government has taken several measures

such as the Participation Act (‘Participatiewet’) or

the Action Plan 50+ (‘Actieplan 50+’) to improve

the employability of people at the margin of the

labour market, including disabled and older

workers. Reforms were also carried out on

employment protection and unemployment

benefits to increase labour force mobility.

Nevertheless, labour market segmentation remains

a concern, as reflected by the absolute and relative

increase in flexible employment contracts.

The Netherlands has made some progress (

) in

addressing

the

2017

country-specific

recommendations.

Substantial progress has been

made on the fiscal-structural part of CSR 1, with

the government set to implement additional fiscal

measures in 2018 that support domestic demand, in

particular increasing expenditure on security and

on teachers’ salaries. From 2018 onwards, R&D

investment will be increased. On the housing

market, some progress has been made. The

government has taken some measures to support

the development of the middle segment rental

market. For the owner-occupied market, the

government announced that it will speed up the

MID reduction from 2020 onwards until it reaches

37 % in 2023, which is still relatively high. For

CSR 2, limited progress has been made as the

government has only announced its intention to

address the problem of labour market

(

) Information on the level of progress and actions taken to

address the policy advice in each respective subpart of a

CSR is presented in the Overview Table in the Annex. This

overall assessment does not include an assessment of

compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

segmentation. Concrete measures have not yet

been revealed. Wage growth is slowly increasing,

with limited progress made on promoting higher

real wage growth. No progress has been made on

reforming the second pillar of the pension system;

while the government announced its intention, no

details have been communicated.

ESI Funds address key challenges to inclusive

growth and convergence.

In the Netherlands, this

is done notably by stimulating investments in

R&D in the private sector for experimental

development of new products, the set-up of living

labs and the stimulation of cooperation between

SMEs and research institutions. ESI Funds also

invest in coaching people who are at a distance

from the labour market and in measures that help

improve the job prospects of older workers.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

Table 2.1:

CSR progress

The Netherlands

CSR1:

While respecting the medium-term objective, use

fiscal and structural policies to support potential

growth and domestic demand,

including investment in research and development.

Take measures to reduce the remaining distortions

in the housing market and the debt bias for

households, in particular by decreasing mortgage

interest tax deductibility.

CSR 2:

Tackle remaining barriers to hiring staff on

permanent contracts.

Address the high increase in the self-employed

without employees, including by reducing tax

distortions favouring self-employment, without

compromising entrepreneurship, and by promoting

access of the self-employed to affordable social

protection.

Based on the broad preparatory process already

launched, make the second pillar of the pension

system more transparent, inter-generationally

fairer and more resilient to shocks.

Create conditions to promote higher real wage

growth, respecting the role of the social partners.

Overall assessment of progress with 2017

CSRs: some progress

The Netherlands has made

some progress

addressing the structural part of CSR1(



Substantial progress has been made in using

fiscal policies to support potential growth and

domestic demand.



Some progress has been made in increasing

investment in research and development.



Some progress has been made on the housing

market recommendation.

The Netherlands has made

limited

progress in

addressing CSR2:



Limited progress has been made in tackling

labour market segmentation, as the

government has announced its intention to

take measures.



Limited progress has been made in addressing

the high increase in the self-employed without

employees, as the government announced a

minimum hourly rate for the self-employed.



No progress has been made on reforming the

second pillar of the pension system, but the

government has confirmed its intention to

carry out the reform during its term.



Limited progress. The government has

acknowledged the need for higher real wage

growth. The coalition agreement includes an

increase in expenditure on teachers’ salaries.

(1) This does not include an assessment of compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

Source:

European Commission

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

2. Progress with country-specific recommendations

Box 2.1:

Tangible results delivered through EU support to structural change in the

Netherlands

The Netherlands is a beneficiary of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI Funds) support and can

receive up to EUR 1.9 billion until 2020. This represents around 1 % of public investment(

) annually over

the period 2014-2018. By 31 December 2017, an estimated EUR 1.2 billion (62 % of the total) was allocated

to projects on the ground. These investments helped 309 enterprises to cooperate with research institutions

and 1 100 SMEs to introduce new products to the market. Furthermore, 212 000 people had benefited from

actions fostering social inclusion and 5 200 enterprises received support to adapt the working environment

to prolonged working lives. Out of the EU financing, EUR 97 million will be invested through financial

instruments.

ESI Funds help address structural policy challenges and implement country-specific recommendations.

Investments in research and development in the private sector are stimulated, among others, by providing

loans, grants or guarantees for experimental development of new products, by setting-up living labs or by

facilitating and stimulating cooperation between SMEs and research institutions. The Funds also invest in

coaching for people with a distance to the labour market which in turn helps enhance the overall labour

market participation. Furthermore, specific measures are supported which improve the job prospects of older

workers.

In addition, as a precondition for ESI Funds support(

), the Dutch regions developed Smart Specialisation

Strategies for research and innovation which help focus the resources and efforts on product specialisation

with a strong market potential.

The Netherlands is also advancing the take up of the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI). As of

December 2017, overall financing volume of operations approved under the EFSI amounted to

EUR 2.2 billion, which is expected to trigger total private and public investment of EUR 8 billion. More

specifically, 17 projects involving the Netherlands have been approved so far under the Infrastructure and

Innovation Window (including 4 multi-country projects), amounting to EUR 2.1 billion in EIB financing

under the EFSI. This is expected to trigger about EUR 7.5 billion in investments. Under the SME Window, 7

agreements with financial intermediaries have been approved so far. European Investment Fund financing

enabled by the EFSI amounts to EUR 135 million, which is expected to mobilise approximatively EUR 515

million in total investment. Over 1 100 smaller companies or start-ups will benefit from this support.

Transport ranks first in terms of operations and volume approved, followed by energy and SMEs.

Funding under Horizon 2020, the Connecting Europe Facility and other directly managed EU funds is

additional to the ESI Funds. By the end of 2017, the Netherlands has signed agreements for

EUR 357 million for projects under the Connecting Europe Facility. For more information, see

https://cohesiondata.ec.europa.eu/countries/NL

(

) Public investment is defined as gross fixed capital formation + investment grants + national expenditure on agriculture

and fisheries.

(

) Before programmes are adopted, Member States are required to comply with a number of so-called ex-ante

conditionalities, which aim at improving conditions for the majority of public investments areas.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

SUMMARY OF THE MAIN FINDINGS FROM THE

MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE IN-DEPTH

REVIEW

The in-depth review for the Dutch economy is

presented in this report.

In spring 2017, the

Netherlands

were

identified

having

macroeconomic imbalances, in particular relating

to a high current account surplus (reflecting a

saving and investment balance) and a high private

debt level, in particular household mortgages and

non-financial corporation (NFC) debt. The

Commission's 2018 Alert Mechanism Report

concluded that a new in-depth review should be

undertaken for the Netherlands to assess

developments relating to identified imbalances.

Analyses relevant for the in-depth review can be

found in the following sections: the tax and

regulatory framework in Section 4.1; private

indebtedness in Section 4.2; wage developments in

4.3; and saving and investment imbalances in

Section 4.4. Potential effects of a public

investment shock on the trade balance are

discussed in Box 3.1.

savings and invest mainly in securities and mostly

abroad, which further increases the surplus. Total

assets held by pension funds have reached almost

200 % of GDP in 2016, of which 17 % is invested

in the Netherlands (see Section 4.2.5). The saving-

investment imbalance peaked in 2012, at the midst

of the prolonged second dip in the Dutch economy,

partly driven by pro-cyclical pension institutions.

This may point to a suboptimal allocation of

resources, leaving room for increased growth and

welfare.

Private sector debt remains high.

In 2016, it

stood at 222 % of GDP, with NFCs contributing

slightly more (114 % of GDP) than households

(108 % of GDP). While NFC debt has roughly

remained constant in terms of GDP, household

debt has increased considerably over the past 20

years. The build-up of household debt was driven

by the regulatory framework, tax incentives and

large increases in both house prices and associated

mortgage lending. While household liabilities are

high, in particular mortgage debt, they coexist with

large illiquid assets in the form of housing wealth

and pension wealth.

NFC debt can largely be linked to

multinationals, which hold more than two

thirds of total NFC debt.

Foreign large NFCs

hold mostly intra-group debt, on which interest is

being charged by one group company to another.

This suggests that debt is being used for tax

reasons, as MNEs can use debt shifting to lower

their tax burden via increased interest payments to

other group companies.

The medium-to-large size of the Dutch economy

allows for moderate outward spillovers for

other Member States

via the trade channel, with

the exception of Belgium, where they can be

relatively large. As a result of close financial

interlinkages with neighbouring countries, outward

financial spillovers are potentially more relevant

for a wider set of countries, including France and

the UK. Conversely, the high degree of economic

and financial openness of the Dutch economy

expose it to potentially significant inward

spillovers, in particular from neighbouring

Member States and from the US, along trade,

3.1.

IMBALANCES AND THEIR GRAVITY

The Netherlands has recorded persistent

current account surpluses for more than three

decades.

In 2016, the three-year average for the

current account surplus was 8.8 % of GDP, higher

than any other EU country (see Section 4.4). As

such, the Dutch surplus contributed 0.6 pp to the

euro area surplus in 2016 (by comparison, the

German contribution was 2.4 pps). From a real

trade perspective, the main driver of the current

account remains the strong trade surplus in goods.

A savings-investment approach points to the

non-financial corporate (NFC) sector as main

driver of the surplus.

The net lending is mostly

explained by the strong net lending position of

NFCs, which have increased their excess savings

since 2 000. The high savings are also due to a

sharp increase in savings by multinationals, which

distribute only a low share of their profits, thereby

generating a statistical upward effect on the

external net lending position. In recent years, the

household sector reduced its saving surplus, while

the government recorded a small surplus in 2016

for the first time in eight years (see Section 4.4).

Pension funds hold the largest share of household

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

financial and banking channels. Box 3.1 illustrates

how a boost to government investment in the

Netherlands can produce both positive domestic

and cross-border effects. The simulation presented

therein follows the spirit of the euro area

recommendation 1(

), in particular as regards

improving growth potential and fostering

investment in Member States with large external

surpluses.

to buying. NFC debt is expected to remain high. In

2019, the government will implement the EU Anti-

Tax Avoidance Directive (ATAD), which aims

among others to discourage companies from

creating artificial debt arrangements designed to

minimise taxes.

3.3.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

3.2.

EVOLUTION, PROSPECTS AND POLICY

RESPONSES

The surplus position is projected to continue.

is expected to reach 9 % in 2017, before slowing to

8.7 % in 2018 and 8.4 % in 2019, according to the

European Commission Autumn 2017 forecast. The

expected decline is mostly due to buoyant

domestic demand (see Section 1). In the coming

years, wage growth is expected to increase on the

back of significantly higher wage demands by

trade unions and a further tightening of the labour

market. In addition, the government has announced

a fiscal stimulus package, which is expected to

have a dampening effect on the current account

balance. Key measures include an increase in

defence and security spending (EUR 1.3 billion),

social transfers (EUR 0.6 billion) and salaries of

primary school teachers (EUR 0.3 billion).

Private sector debt is expected to remain high.

Household debt (mainly mortgages) has increased

again, which can partly be attributed to rising

house prices, even though credit growth remains

well below house price increases. At the same

time, rising house prices have positive wealth

effects and will gradually lift affected households

out of negative housing equity. In relative terms,

the private debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to

decrease, due to positive GDP growth (passive

deleveraging).

The tax system currently treats mortgage and

NFC debt favourably.

Though the government

has announced to accelerate the reduction in

mortgage interest deductibility, large tax incentives

to buy houses remain. The underdeveloped private

rental market does not offer sufficient alternatives

(

) European Commission recommendation for a Council

recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area

(22.11.2017)

The Netherlands is experiencing imbalances

due to its large current account surplus and the

high private debt level.

The current account

surplus is driven by comparatively low household

disposable income(

), large foreign investments by

domestic pension funds and capital flows of

multinationals. The high level of private debt

mainly consists of household mortgage debt and

(intra-group) NFC debt; both are influenced by tax

incentives. While high mortgage debt makes

households vulnerable to financial shocks, this risk

is limited in the case of intra-group debt of NFC

debt, as this is most likely being used for tax

optimisation purposes.

Both the private debt and the external surplus

are expected to remain at very high levels, with

a small reduction in the current account surplus

in the coming years.

The positive economic

outlook, the government’s fiscal stimulus package

and expected higher wage growth are likely to

boost domestic demand and have a dampening

effect on the current account balance. The

budgetary stance will be less restrictive in 2018

and therefore less of a drag on domestic demand

than in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, with

positive effects on domestic demand and thus on

the rebalancing of the current account. Private debt

levels are expected to remain high as nominal debt

is increasing again. The observed deleveraging has

been passive, due to buoyant nominal GDP

growth.

(

) See European Commission (2017b) and see Section 4.2.4

for the particularly high compulsory payment wedge.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Table 3.1:

MIP assessment matrix (*) – the Netherlands

Current

account

balance

Evolution and

Policy response

prospects

Imbalances (unsustainable trends, vulnerabilities and associated risk)

The current account balances During 2016 and 2017, The

government

has

stood at 9 % of GDP in 2016. the current account announced a fiscal stimulus

The high net lending to the surplus

increased package for the years 2018-

rest of the world is mainly somewhat,

likely 2021. In 2018, government

linked to the high savings by exceeding 9% of GDP expenditure increases on

non-financial

corporations in 2017. This was due defence and security, social

(7 % of GDP). The household to

trade

balance transfers and salaries of

sector and government each effects.

primary school teachers. The

contributed less than 1 % of Supported by the new government also foresees a

GDP.

government's

fiscal large income tax package

The Netherlands has recorded stimulus package and a reducing the burden on

surpluses on the current forecast of increasing labour and thereby supporting

account for more than three wages, the robust domestic demand. Most

decades (see Section 4.4). A growth of domestic measures

will

persistent current account demand is likely to implemented from 2019

surplus

points

an reduce the current onwards (see Section 4.1.1).

imbalance

domestic account

surplus. In the coalition agreement,

savings and investments, with Nevertheless, a surplus the

government

has

possible

adverse position linked to reaffirmed its intention to

consequences

for

the structural reasons is reform the second pillar

allocation of resources and expected to persist pension system. However, no

thus growth and welfare.

going forward.

concrete measures have been

An analysis of saving and

proposed

far.

The

investment by institutional

government

has

also

sector points to a statistical

announced to repeal the

upward effect of large cross-

dividend withholding tax,

border capital flows, related

except in abuse situations and

the

presence

for payments to low tax

multinational enterprises (see

countries, and to introduce a

Section 4.4). In addition, the

withholding tax for interest

large

pension

savings

and royalties in abuse

compared to the size of the

situations and payments to

domestic

economy

are

low tax countries; the impact

projected to continue having

on the current account

an upward effect on the

balance remains to be seen.

lending position (see Section

4.2).

Gravity of the challenge

(Continued on the next page)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Table (continued)

Private

debt

Private sector debt stood at

222 % of GDP in 2016,

which is linked to the high

stock of household debt (108

% of GDP) and structurally

high NFC debt that remains

close to its 1996-2016

average (114 % of GDP).

While household liabilities

are large they go alongside

large illiquid assets in the

form of housing wealth and

pension wealth (see Section

4.2.5). The relatively long

household balance sheets,

driven by tax incentives and

the regulatory framework,

increase

the

financial

vulnerability of households.

The high level of NFC debt

can largely be attributed to

internal debt financing of

MNEs, mainly for tax

optimisation reasons (see

Section 4.2.4).

After a short period of

active deleveraging in

2012-2014,

nominal

household

debt,

especially

mortgage

debt,

has

been

increasing

again,

driven by the recovery

of the housing market.

Yet during 2016, both

household

and

corporate

debt

continued

deleverage passively,

as nominal growth

helped to reduce their

debt ratios relative to

GDP. Going forward,

private debt in terms of

GDP is expected to

remain high.

The previous government had

introduced measures to limit

household debt, such as the

MID reduction, LTV and LTI

restrictions.

The

new

government has announced to

accelerate the MID reduction

from 2020 onwards, which

may

dampen

household

indebtedness in the long term.

Nevertheless, the MID level

will remain high and other

distortions in the rental

market persist, keeping a

significant bias towards the

owner-occupied market.

The implementation of the

Anti-Tax

Avoidance

Directive could have an

impact on NFC debt as it

discourages companies from

creating

artificial

debt

arrangements designed to

minimise

taxes.

The

implementation is foreseen

for 2019.

Conclusions from the IDR analysis



The Netherlands displays the largest current account surplus in terms of GDP among EU

countries. The surplus implies a suboptimal allocation of resources, leaving opportunities for

increased growth and welfare. The disposable income of households is hampered by a high

compulsory payment wedge. Private debt is high, specifically the stock of household

mortgage-and debt. The long household balance sheets increase the vulnerability to financial

shocks.

The current account surplus is likely to have increased somewhat in 2017, reaching more than

9 % of GDP, yet it remains below its 10.2 % peak in 2013. The surplus is expected to narrow

going forward based on a continued decline of the primary income balance, improved cyclical

conditions and recovering domestic demand growth. At the same time, nominal household

debt is increasing again, as the ongoing recovery of the housing market is driving up nominal

mortgage debt levels.

Domestic demand is supported by the fiscal stimulus package and income tax package of the

new government. Moreover, measures have been taken to support household deleveraging

and to prevent excessive build-up of mortgage debt. The phase-out of the MID will be

accelerated, which may reduce mortgage debt in the longer term. Finally, the government has

confirmed its intention to reform the second pension pillar; however no concrete measures

have been announced yet.



(*) The first column summarises ‘gravity’ issues which aim at providing an order of magnitude of the level of imbalances. The

second column reports findings concerning the ‘evolution and prospects’ of imbalances. The third column reports recent and

planned relevant measures to address these. Findings are reported for each source of imbalance and adjustment issue. The

final three paragraphs of the matrix summarise the overall challenges in terms of their gravity, developments and prospects,

policy response.

Source:

European Commission

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

3. Summary of the main findings from the MIP in-depth review

Box 3.1:

Euro area spillovers

The new government's fiscal plans include a discretionary public spending impulse of almost 1 % of GDP in

2019 compared to a zero policy baseline. These measures are likely to yield a positive impact on economic

growth in the Netherlands. High trade openness of the Dutch economy suggests potentially important

spillovers to the rest of the euro area (REA), which is balanced, however, by the limited economic size of

the Netherlands compared to the EA aggregate (see also European Commission, 2016a). To illustrate the

size of potential GDP spillovers, this box describes the impact of a permanent debt-financed increase in

productive public investment by 1 % of GDP on the Dutch GDP level, the REA GDP level and the Dutch

trade balance. A public investment impulse could be motivated by a favourable debt trajectory, low

borrowing costs and monetary policy constrained by a zero lower bound for interest rates. In essence, such a

scenario would undo the fall in public investment since 2009.

Simulations with the European Commission's QUEST model(

)

show a positive impact on the level of Dutch

real GDP of around 0.5 % in the first year, increasing to 0.9 % after five years. The trade surplus is reduced

by around 0.1 % of GDP from the first year onwards. The spillover of the domestic investment impulse via

the trade channel is positive. In particular, a 1 % of GDP fiscal expansion via public investment in the

Netherlands raises real GDP in the REA by circa 0.1 %.

Graph 1:

Domestic impact and spillover of permanent public investment impulse (of 1 % of GDP)

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

GDP REA

GDP NL

NL Trade balance (% GDP)

0.3

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

Source:

European Commission

(

)

Detailed information on the QUEST model and applications is available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/research/macroeconomic_models_en.htm.

In this simulation, monetary policy rates

in the euro area are assumed to remain unchanged during the first two years.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

REFORM PRIORITIES

4.1. PUBLIC FINANCES AND TAXATION

4.1.1. TAXATION* (

)

New fiscal measures will reduce the tax burden

on labour.

The new government has announced a

package

reduce

income

taxes

EUR 0.5 billion (0.1 % of GDP) in 2018, which

will increase gradually to EUR 6.2 billion (0.9 %

of GDP) in 2021. The measures are targeted at all

income groups. The tax burden on labour will be

reduced by lowering the income tax, which is

primarily achieved by reducing the number of tax

brackets from four to two, with a base rate of

36.95 % in the lower bracket and a top rate of

49.5 % (for income above EUR 68 600). Another

important measure is the increase in the general tax

credit and labour tax credit, which will be

increased in total by EUR 1.5 billion (0.2 % of

GDP) in 2019, EUR 3.3 billion (0.5 % of GDP) in

2020 and permanently to EUR 4.7 billion (0.7 %

of GDP) from 2021 onwards. Child benefits and

childcare allowances will be increased by

EUR 0.5 billion (0.1 % of GDP) in 2019 and by

around EUR 1 billion from 2020 onwards.

At the same time, some tax measures will be

introduced to mitigate the drop in tax revenue.

The energy tax for households will be increased,

generating EUR 0.5 billion in 2018 and an extra

EUR 1 billion from 2021 onwards. The reduced

VAT rate will rise from 6 % to 9 %, which is

expected to generate an extra EUR 2.6 billion per

year from 2019 onwards. In general, the income

tax package implies a tax shift away from labour to

sources of revenue less detrimental to growth.

To strengthen the fiscal investment climate for

companies, the corporate tax rate will be

gradually reduced from 25 % to ultimately

21 %

(24 % in 2019, 22.5 % in 2020 and 21 % in

2021). The low rate (in 2017 for taxable profit up

to EUR 200 000) will be reduced in the same way

from 20 % to 16 %.

Some indicators continue to suggest that the

country’s corporate tax rules are used by

companies engaged in aggressive tax planning

(

) An asterisk (*) indicates that the analysis in the section

contributes to the in-depth review under the MIP (see

section 3 for an overall summary of main findings)

(ATP).

As shown in a study (IHS, 2018), the

Netherlands' high inward and outward foreign

direct investment (FDI) stocks(

) can only be

explained in part by real economic activities taking

place in the Netherlands. The high level of

dividend, royalty and interest payments made via

the Netherlands(

) (see Section 4.4) continue to

suggest that the country’s tax rules are used by

companies that engage in ATP. A large share of

these FDI stocks is held by so-called ‘special

purpose entities’ (SPE)(

). The absence of broad

withholding taxes on dividend payments by co-

operatives, the possibility for hybrid mismatches

by using the limited partnership (CV) and the

absence of withholding taxes on royalties and

interest payments (which may lead to those

payments escaping tax altogether, if they are also

not subject to tax in the recipient jurisdiction),,

combined with the lack of some anti-abuse rules,

may facilitate ATP. The possibility for hybrid

mismatches, using the CV will cease to exist with

the implementation of the EU directive on hybrid

mismatches, on the first of January 2020 at the

latest.

A reform agenda has been announced to tackle

certain aspects of the Dutch tax system that

may facilitate ATP.

Withholding taxes on interest

and royalty payments will be introduced for

payments to low tax jurisdictions and in cases of

abuse. While the withholding tax on dividends,

which is currently 15 %, will be abolished in

principle, it will remain in abuse situations and for

payments to low tax jurisdictions. The timeframe

for these reforms as well as for introducing

withholding taxes on royalties and interests is not

yet clear. These plans will not affect the proposed

introduction of a dividend withholding tax on

payments by cooperatives that largely operate as

(

) Inward FDIs stock 551 % of GDP and outward FDIs stock

688 % of GDP in 2016.

(

) The flows of dividends paid and received (calculated as net

income on FDI) amounted to 16.9 % and 23.2 % of GDP in

2016 (respectively 4th and 2nd highest in the EU and 1st in

value). The flows of interests paid and received (calculated

as net income on FDI) amounted to 2.2 % and 4.7 % of

GDP. The royalties paid and received in 2016 amounted

respectively to 6.5 % of GDP and 5.6 % of GDP (among

the three highest of the EU).

(

) The share of inward and outward FDI stock held by SPE

amounted respectively to 80 % and 73 % of GDP in 2016.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

holding/financing companies, which will enter into

force on 1 January 2018. The definitions of

"abuse" and "low-tax jurisdiction" in the context of

the partial abolition of dividend withholding taxes

and the introduction of withholding taxes on

interest and royalties will be important. The

interest deduction restriction of the Anti-Tax

Avoidance Directive (ATAD) will be introduced in

the shape of an earnings stripping measure. At the

same time several existing interest deduction

restrictions will be abolished, but it is not yet clear

which. Section 10a of the Corporation Tax Act,

which provides for a base erosion rule, will be

retained. A generic minimum capital requirement

will be introduced (thin cap rule) that limits

interest deduction on loan capital in excess of

92 % of the commercial balance sheet total.

(Foreign) investors investing via fiscal investment

institutions

(‘fiscale

beleggingsinstellingen’)

exempt from corporate tax were taxed on their

property by means of the dividend withholding tax.

Now that the dividend withholding tax is set to be

abolished in principle, fiscal investment

institutions will no longer be able to invest directly

in property. This is intended to prevent such

investments from avoiding both corporate tax and

dividend withholding tax.

The Netherlands has taken measures to amend

aspects of its tax system that facilitate ATP.

The

Code of Conduct Group (Business Taxation)(

)

has approved the amended Dutch patent box. The

old system is subject to a grandfathering clause

that runs until June 2021. Under the new

system(

) there will be a stronger link between the

intellectual property (IP) that can benefit from the

system and the R&D that created this IP. The

effective tax rate of the patent box has been

increased from 5 % to 7 % in 2018. While

economic evidence on the effectiveness of patent

boxes as a means to encourage R&D remains

limited, they may be used as tax competition tools.

The rules for the trust sector will be tightened. The

powers of the supervisory authority for the trust

sector (De Nederlandsche Bank) will be extended.

In response to the Panama Papers the information

position and the abuse detection capability of the

(

) http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/preparatory-

bodies/code-conduct-group/

(

) The Dutch innovation box regime, a beneficial intellectual

property regime, currently allows qualifying research and

development profits to be taxed at an effective tax rate of

5 %. The effective tax rate will be increased to 7 %.

tax authorities will be strengthened. In addition,

the provisions of the Anti-Tax Avoidance

Directives must be transposed into national law by

the end of 2018 and 2019. It will be important to

assess to what extent new measures, whether

announced or legislated, in conjunction with the

effect of the transposition of the directive, limit the

scope for ATP in the Netherlands.

The tax rate on income from substantial

shareholdings will increase.

It will gradually rise

from 25 % to 28.5 % by 2021 to maintain the

balance between self-employed persons subject to

income tax and self-employed persons who operate

via a company subject to corporate tax. The

exemption per person from the investment yield

tax will increase from EUR 25 000 to EUR 30 000.

The expected yield will follow real interest rates

on savings more closely.

4.1.2 LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC

FINANCE

The government debt-to-GDP ratio is declining

faster than expected.

In 2017, the debt ratio is

expected to have reached 57.7 % of GDP, having

fallen below the 60 % threshold for the first time

since 2011. The debt trajectory is more favourable

than expected due to higher GDP growth as well as

stock-flow adjustments, which include the sale of

shares of state-owned financial institutions. The

Commission’s debt sustainability analysis(

)

projects a further decrease to 38.6 % of GDP in

2028 (final projection year) assuming no policy

change, driven mainly by primary surpluses, but

also nominal GDP growth and low interest rate

expenditure. With its favourable government debt

trend the Netherlands remains 'low risk', based on

the

Commission's

baseline

medium-term

projections.

The retirement age is linked to life expectancy

in 2022.

Following reforms in 2012, the retirement

age will gradually rise to 67 years in 2021. From

2022 onwards, the retirement age is linked to life

expectancy and is currently set at 67 years and 3

months. Due to stagnating life expectancies in the

latest projections, the retirement age will not

(

) EC (2018). This is a mechanical projection based on the

current primary balance and assumptions on nominal

growth and interest rates. Subsequently an equilibrium debt

level and equilibrium interest services can be calculated.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

increase in 2023, which will be the first time since

2013.

4.1.3 FISCAL FRAMEWORK

The Netherlands has a well-established fiscal

framework, which has been in place since 1994.

The main principles are embodied in a specific law

and the new government has reiterated the main

principles of the framework. The main

characteristics of this multi-annual trend-based

fiscal framework include: (i) the use of

independently

derived

macroeconomic

assumptions; (ii) the use of inflation-adjusted(

)

expenditure ceilings, which are predetermined and

cover the government’s entire term of office;

(iii) the use of automatic stabilisers on the revenue

side, and (iv) a well-defined budgetary process for

decision-making and the clear distribution of

responsibilities, including the tasks of the Bureau

for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and the

Council of State (Advisory Division). The CPB

carries out the independent fiscal forecast while

the Council of State is tasked with monitoring

compliance with numerical fiscal rules. Moreover,

the commitment to comply with EU fiscal rules is

embedded in the legal framework of the

Netherlands.

The government aims at increasing the

stabilising effect of its budget.

Dutch public

finances have a suboptimal track record in terms of

their stabilisation function. During booms, very

small budget surpluses are generated in general,

which often leads to pro-cyclical measures in

subsequent recessions. Although this applies to

more euro area countries, it contrasts with the

experience of other countries, such as Sweden and

Denmark (see Graph 4.1.1) (Afman and Deroose,

2016). Last year’s report by the advisory group on

budgetary issues(

), which gives general advice

on the budgetary guidelines before a new

government term, recommended increasing the

stabilising effect of the budget. In the report, the

group

recommended

excluding

cyclical

expenditure items such as unemployment benefit

expenditure from the ceilings, but including

interest expenditure and natural gas production.

(

) From 2018 onwards, expenditure ceilings will be indexed

by wage and price developments, not by the deflator of

domestic demand (prijs nationale bestedingen).

( )

http://www.rijksbegroting.nl/beleidsevaluaties/studiegroep-

begrotingsruimte

The government has followed this advice and

removed some cyclical components from the

expenditure ceiling, namely the non-discretionary,

cyclical changes in expenditure on unemployment

and social assistance. At the same time, interest

expenditure and the impact of discretionary

decisions on natural gas production are included.

While this would further improve the

macroeconomic stabilisation function of the

budgetary framework, this would also make the

budget more sensitive to the economic cycle,

further stressing the need for fiscal prudence in

economic good times.

Graph 4.1.1:

Average headline budget balance in different

states of the economy

0.2

-1

-1.0

-2

-3

-4

-5

Sweden

Denmark Netherlands Germany

Euro area-

1.9

1.7

output gap > 0

output gap < 0

% of GDP

-1.1

-1.6

-2.4

-2.7

-1.8

-3.7

Source:

Afman and Deroose (2016); 1996-2015 average.

While the Dutch fiscal framework recognises

the EU fiscal rules as the anchor to fiscal policy,

further efficiency gains could be made.

This

could be achieved through further alignment, for

instance when assessing fiscal sustainability or

operationalising the medium-term budgetary

objective within the national context (Vierke and

Masselink, 2017). There are also some options

available to improve flexibility in the framework

while being careful not to hinder responsible

budgeting; for example, the application of ‘rolling

mechanisms’ with multi-annual expenditure

ceilings updated on an annual basis according to

predefined drivers (e.g. an update of macro

conditions).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

4.2. FINANCIAL SECTOR

4.1.4 QUALITY OF PUBLIC FINANCE

Growth-friendly public expenditure increased

slightly in 2015-2016, but remains lower than

that of other ‘innovation leaders’(

Public

spending in growth-enhancing areas is of particular

importance to unlock investment in knowledge-

based capital and sustain long-term growth and

employment. Public R&D intensity in the

Netherlands gradually increased to 0.9 % of GDP

in 2013, close to the average of the most advanced

EU peers (1 %). Total budget appropriations for

R&D amounted to 0.72 % of GDP in 2015, below

those of the most advanced EU peers. Direct

public funding for R&D is projected to decline

until 2020 (see Section 4.5.1).

Public investment remains strong, but spending

on education is increasing rather slowly.

Public

gross fixed capital formation accounted for 3.5 %

of GDP in 2016, above the EU average of 2.9 %

(EA 2.7 %), but below that of other ‘innovation

leaders’, notably Sweden (4.4 %), Finland (4 %)

and Denmark (3.7 %). While the Dutch education

system provides a sound basis for upgrading

human capital, innovation and growth, spending on

education is still below that of top performers such

as the Nordic countries. In 2015, the Netherlands

spent 5.4 % of GDP on education, above the EU

and euro area averages but less than the top-

performing peer countries such as Denmark

(7.0 %), Sweden (6.5 %), Belgium (6.4 %),

Finland (6.2 %) and the Baltic countries. The

efficiency of public spending on education in the

Netherlands is relatively high, which is also

illustrated by the comparatively good educational

attainment (EC, 2017f). According to the coalition

agreement, the government plans to increase its

expenditure on growth-enhancing areas such as

R&D by EUR 600 million in 2018-2019.

4.2.1. BANKING SECTOR

insurance and pension sectors, they amount to

70 % and 184 % of GDP respectively whereas

investment funds hold assets equivalent to 113 %

of GDP (Graph 4.2.1). The Dutch banking market

has one of the highest concentration levels in the

EU, with the five largest banks holding 85 % of

assets in 2017, compared to a euro area average of

Table 4.1.1:

Total public funding for R&D and innovation,

2015-2017

2015

Public

funding

R&D

(GBAORD), in EUR million

Public funding to Innovation (not

R&D), in EUR million

Fiscal incentives for R&D and

innovation, in EUR million

Total financial support for R&D

and innovation, in EUR million

Expenditure on R&D, as % GDP

Expenditure on innovation, not

R&D, as % GDP

Fiscal incentives for R&D and

innovation, as % GDP

Total support for R&D and

innovation, as % GDP

4880.7

241.9

1009.8

6132.4

0.72

0.04

0.15

0.91

2016

5022.1

324.0

1153.8

6499.8

0.72

0.05

0.17

0.93

2017

4887.3

281.7

1215.8

6384.7

0.69

0.04

0.17

0.90

Note: GBAORD refers to government budget appropriations

or outlays for research and development. Fiscal incentives

exclude the innovation box.

Source:

Vennekens and Van Steen, 2017

48 % (ECB, 2017). Given the systemic relevance

of those five banks, the Dutch Central Bank has

ordered them to gradually build up extra capital

buffers in 2016-2019. The government plans to

continue the reprivatisation of ABN AMRO.

The Dutch banking sector remains one of the

largest in the EU in terms of GDP and is highly

concentrated.

Its assets accounted for around

370 % of the country’s GDP in 2017 (compared to

530 % in 2007) (DNB, 2017b). Assets in the total

financial system are close to eight times the GDP

at the end of 2016. As for the assets of the

(

) As defined in the European Innovation Scoreboard:

http://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-

figures/scoreboards_en

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

Graph 4.2.1:

Size of the financial intermediaries and of the

debt securities market

MFIs

400

350

300

% of GDP

250

Inv.funds

Other

200

150

100

NFC

MFIs

Debt securities; 2016

Intermediary assets; 2016

Source:

ECB, European Commission

The share of wholesale funding in the banking

sector remains high.

Deposits account for only

47 % of total funding which is well below the euro

area average of 56 % (August 2017). In a stress

scenario, funding costs could rise sharply

impacting profitability and the net interest income

of Dutch banks. On a positive note, since the crisis

the maturity of market funding has been

lengthened to prevent imminent liquidity risk. The

deposit share has also been growing over time,

which has a positive effect on the loan-to-deposit

ratio which further decreased to 110.6 % in

September 2016. This ratio and the banks' reliance

on wholesale funding are likely to be further

reduced following the increasing role of pension

funds and insurance companies in the mortgage

credit market. Their market share in mortgages

increased from 8 % (2010) to 11 % (2016) (DNB,

2016).

The profitability of the banking sector – while

remaining solid – might still be affected by

prolonged low interest rates, non-bank

competitors and upcoming regulatory changes.

Past loans priced at high fixed interest rates –

mostly mortgages – will gradually mature over the

next two decades, and new loans are likely to be

repriced at less profitable rates. Banks' margins

and credit volumes on the mortgage credit market

are coming under pressure due to increasing

competition from pension funds and insurance

companies – these were responsible for 20 % of

new mortgages in 2016 (DNB, 2016). In other

traditional banking domains – for instance

payments – banks face growing competition from

fintech companies following further opening of the

market as a result of the adoption of the Payment

Services Directive 2. The package on prudential

rules recently endorsed by the Basel Committee on

Banking Supervision – applicable over the next

few years – will also have implications for the

Dutch

banks’

profitability.

Given

their

considerable exposure to mortgages, the new rules

mean that they would have to set aside additional

capital, which is likely to reduce the sector's return

on equity. Dutch banks are making additional

efforts to improve their efficiency by further

switching from branch offices to digital services.

Since 2007, they have already reduced the number

of offices across the country by more than 50 % to

1 764 offices in 2015.

Insurance and pension

Financial soundness indicators of Dutch credit

institutions do not give rise to stability

concerns.

The banks did not suffer major losses on

their loan portfolios during the crisis, and the ratio

of non-performing loans did not exceed 3 % in the

last few years amounting to just 2.2 % in 2016.

The banks maintain adequate financial resilience

and sound solvency positions with capital

standards well above the regulatory requirements.

At sector level, the capital adequacy ratio stood at

a solid 23.1 % and the Tier 1 capital ratio at

18.3 % compared to the euro area average of

17.6 % and 15 % respectively in Q2-2017 (see

Table 4.2.1). The leverage of Dutch lenders –

although lower than during the crisis – stands at a

modest 4.7 % at sector level (DNB, 2017b),

compared to the euro area average of 5.1 % (ECB).

Table 4.2.1:

(%)

Non-performing debt

Non-performing loans

Non-performing loans NFC

Non-performing loans HH

Coverage ratio

Loan-to-deposit ratio*

Tier 1 ratio

Capital adequacy ratio

Return on equity**

Return on assets**

Financial soundness indicators

2010

2.3

36.5

120.3

11.8

14.1

7.5

0.3

2012

2.7

37.6

119.2

12.3

14.5

4.1

0.2

2014

3.0

3.4

6.3

2.1

37.8

114.1

15.4

18.4

3.3

0.2

2015

2.4

2.7

5.3

1.7

37.8

113.4

16.6

20.6

7.0

0.4

2016

2.2

2.4

5.3

1.3

35.6

110.6

17.9

22.4

7.3

0.4

2017Q2

2.1

2.3

5.2

1.2

33.7

109.3

18.3

23.1

Financial soundness indicators, all banks in Netherlands

*ECB aggregated balance sheet: loans excl. to government

and MFI / deposits excl. from government and MFI

**For comparability only annual values are presented

Source:

ECB, CBD

Insurance (2015)

Pen. Funds (2015)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

4.2.2. ACCESS TO FINANCE *

The perception of bank loan availability has

further improved, and a majority of policy

measures have been implemented under the

Additional

SME

Finance

Action

Plan (Aanvullend

Actieplan Mkb-financiering).

Equity funding and business angel funding for new

and growing firms is satisfactory (EC, 2017j).

Companies valued access to finance more

positively while increasingly using channels other

than traditional bank lending. These improvements

reflect in part the decrease in loan requests by

SMEs and the net decline of 13 % in bank lending

rates. Among the main reasons for this decline are:

increased financial buffers of SMEs due to a return

to sustained profits; increased solvency ratios and

liquidity and an increase in leasing as a financial

instrument (DNB, 2016). The Netherlands

Investment Agency (NIA) and the Netherlands

Investment Institution (NLII) contribute to the

improved access to finance(

New forms of finance have emerged, backed by

new regulations and alternative providers for

SME finance.

The scheme ‘New providers of

SME-finance’ (Nieuwe

aanbieders van MKB-

financiering)

marked the start of several funds

which offer alternative SME finance (e.g. FundIQ

and DBS2 Factoring) backed by a guarantee from

the Ministry of Economic Affairs. A new scheme

‘Co-Investment Facility for Business Angels’ (Co-

Investeringsfaciliteit voor Business Angels)

was

launched in 2017 under the existing SEED capital

scheme.

4.2.3. HOUSING MARKET * (

)

expected to have reached 94 % of the 2008 level.

While annual house price growth nationally was

around 6 % in 2017, it was much higher in the four

largest cities: Amsterdam recorded house price

growth of 13 % in 2017, Rotterdam and Utrecht

11 % and The Hague 9 %. The rise in house prices

in the four largest cities is not accompanied by

increasing credit to households. Since 2016, credit

growth in these cities has been decoupled from

house price growth, falling to roughly 0 % year-

on-year by the end of 2016, suggesting that house

purchases are financed by savings rather than

credit (DNB, 2017a).

House price valuation indicators nationally do

not point to overvaluation.

Long-term values of

price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios are below

their long-term averages (see Graph 4.2.3).

Estimates suggest that house prices are broadly in

line with fundamental values. Yet, for Amsterdam,

recent research reveals that the upsurge in house

prices cannot be explained by fundamental factors

such as the (improved) quality of dwellings, the

interest rate, income growth or rental prices

(Houben, Dröes and Lamoen, 2017).

Graph 4.2.2:

House price developments

130

Amsterdam

120

Utrecht

Rotterdam

110

The Hague

NL (incl. the 4 cities)

100

The housing market continues to recover with

increasing regional differences.

At the national

level, house prices are gradually moving towards

the pre-crisis peak in 2008 (see Graph 4.2.2). At

the end of 2017, the national house price index is

(

) The NIA provides a single contact centre for entrepreneurs

seeking risk capital, guarantees, export credit insurance and

international finance programmes and offers additional

venture capital and improved access to EU financing for

start-ups and scale-ups, notably for innovative and high-

risk activities in transition areas. The NLII enables

institutional investors to invest directly in the Dutch

economy through direct lending to SMEs as well as

dedicated funds in the areas of climate change, healthcare

and education.

(

) Unless indicated otherwise, all data in this section was

retrieved from Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

2010

2013

2008

2009

2011

2012

2014

2015

2016

Source:

Statistics Netherlands

The housing market recovery is also reflected in

increasing transaction volumes.

In Q3-2017, the

number of transactions involving existing

dwellings increased to the highest level recorded

since 1995. In the same quarter, the total value of

transactions involving existing dwellings reached a

record high of EUR 16 billion, which is almost

2017*

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

EUR 3 billion above the previous peak in Q4-

2007.

The housing market recovery is likely to

continue in the near future.

The value of

building permits issued for new dwellings

increased from EUR 3.4 billion in 2013 (26 000

dwellings) to EUR 6.5 billion in 2016 (51 000

dwellings), which is still some way below the

EUR 12 bn recorded in 2007 (for 88 000

dwellings). As in the past, the majority of

dwellings (around 60 %) are being built by

construction companies and investors. However,

the absolute number of permits issued fell from

7 000 to 4 000. Housing corporations and the state

greatly reduced their share in new permits, from

23 % in 2007 (3 000 permits) to 8 % in 2016 (500

permits). Individuals have considerably increased

their share over time from around 19 % in 2007 to

31 % in 2016. This is mostly due to the decreasing

number of permits of other builders, as their total

share was around 2 000 permits in both years.

Graph 4.2.3:

House price valuation

2017. This share has decreased by only 0.8 % over

the past 5 years and is expected to slowly decrease

given that fewer construction permits have been

issued for the social housing sector than for the

private rental and owner-occupied sectors. In

Amsterdam and Rotterdam, social housing

corporations dominate the housing market with

shares of 42 % and 44 % respectively. An

important share of the social dwellings in the

Netherlands is occupied by

'scheefhuurders'(

Over the past years, the share of scheefhuurders

(18 % of total social housing tenants) has slightly

decreased but is still above 400 000 nationally

(WoON 2015). Because the social housing sector

is so large, its inefficiencies prevent a more

efficient functioning of the whole housing market

putting price pressure on the remaining market

segments.

The private rental market is the only non-

subsidised housing sector and remains

underdeveloped.

Its share in total dwellings is

advancing very slowly: only 13 % of housing units

were rented out privately in 2016. Looking at the

number of construction permits issued, this

situation is unlikely to change, as most permits are

not issued for rental dwellings. The government

has not announced new measures to support the

provision of rental dwellings. In 2016, only 16 000

permits were issued to build rental dwellings,

compared to 35 000 permits issued to future

homeowners. Part of the problem is that

municipalities can receive a higher price for land

used for building owner-occupied dwellings

instead of rental flats, which is due to the subsidies

in the owner-occupied market (DNB, 2017a). To

increase land availability for the private rental

market, the Law on Spatial Planning(

) was

amended in 2017, allowing municipalities to set

aside zones specifically for building middle

segment rental dwellings. While the government

announced its intention to support the supply of

affordable housing on the private rental market,

more details on such support have not been

communicated yet.

Social housing corporations increase rents

hesitantly.

While rents in the private rental sector

(

) Scheefhuurders (literally translated ‘skew tenants’) are

those tenants who earn above the income threshold for

social housing, but occupy social housing because they

were once eligible for it.

(

)

https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/stb-2017-172.html

-10

-20

-30

Model-based valuations gap

Price-to-income vs. hist. avg.

Price-to-rent vs. hist. avg.

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Valuation gap estimated as an average of the

price/income, price/rent and fundamental model valuation

gaps. Long-term values for the price-to-income and price-

to-rent ratios were computed over 1995-2016. For the model

based valuation gaps, a Vector Error Correction model was

estimated for a panel of 21 EU countries, using a system of

five fundamental variable:; the relative house price, total

population, real housing investment, real disposable income

per capita and real long-term interest rate.

Source:

European Commission

-40

The strong presence of the social housing sector

may increase the pressure on house prices.

The

social housing sector is one of the largest in the EU

with a 29 % share of total dwellings nationally in

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

increased by 2.3 %, rents in the social sector

increased by only 1.1 % in 2017. This is less than

what corporations are legally allowed to increase

rents by. According to the 'rental price method'(

housing corporations could have increased rents by

1.3 % in total in 2017, with maximum increases of

2.8 % for lower-income tenants (with a yearly

income of up to EUR 40 349) and 4.3 % for

higher-income tenants. Data from 2016 shows that

only 24 % of high-income households received the

maximum rent increase. Excluding rent increases

due to new rental agreements, existing rents in the

social housing sector actually increased by only

0.6 % in total in 2017 (CBS, 2016). This implies

that half of the rent increase was borne by new

tenants, which are typically low-income

households because housing corporations have to

allocate at least 80 % of dwellings to this target

group.

High-income households stay in social housing.

Recent survey data shows that high-income

households have little financial incentives to move

out of their social housing: 84 % of tenants with an

income above EUR 40 349 state that rent increases

did not influence their decision to move out of

social housing (ING, 2017). Most

scheefhuurders

are more than 65 years old (ING, 2017) and their

potential rent increase is limited by law (BZK,

2017).

Social housing corporations face a trade-off

when increasing rents.

On the one hand, it is

profitable for them to increase rents and with it

their revenue. On the other hand, if they increase

rents too much, they run the risk of seeing their

most profitable tenants (those with high incomes)

leave. Once those dwellings are vacant, the

majority of those must be allocated to low-income

households again. Swapping a high-income tenant

for a low-income one implies that the corporation

will get less revenue for the same dwelling. A

recent survey showed that one third of

corporations do not plan on carrying out income-

dependent rent increases (RIGO, 2016).

(

) This method (huursombenadering) has been in place since

1 January 2017. It limits the total amount by which social

housing rents can be increased. The idea is to limit the

differences between rents in social housing; however, it

hinders the faster adjustment of rents for

scheefhuurders.

4.2.4. PRIVATE DEBT *

Private debt continues to remain high in the

Netherlands.

It stood at 221.5 % of GPD in 2016,

evenly split between households (mainly

mortgages) and non-financial corporations (NFC).

Over the past 20 years, the NFC debt-to-GDP has

roughly stayed stable, whereas household debt has

increased considerably from 63 % of GDP in 1995

to 118 % of GDP in 2009 during the house price

peak, before falling to 108 % of GDP again (see

Graph 4.2.4). Both household and NFC debt

considerably exceed the level suggested by

prudential considerations, as suggested by

Commission calculations(

). Note, however, that

corporate debt is mostly driven by multinational

operations and the prevalence of cross-border

intra-company loans, whereas the indebtedness of

the remaining resident NFCs is in line with

prudential levels.

Household debt consists mainly of mortgage

loans and has been identified as an important

vulnerability by the European Systemic Risk

Board

(ESRB, 2016). The high level of mortgage

debt is driven by strong distortions in the housing

market: the generous tax treatment of owner-

occupied housing, the legacy of regulation

favouring high LTV ratios and interest-only loans,

the inefficient and subsidised social housing sector

and underdeveloped private rental market. While

tax relief on mortgage interest payments is

gradually being reduced (see discussion below), it

will still be the highest in the EU.

Nominal household debt is rising.

Following the

burst of the housing bubble, nominal household

debt peaked at EUR 758 billion in 2012. After a

small dip in the following two years, nominal debt

stood at the previous peak level again in 2016.

However, the household debt-to-GDP ratio has

been decreasing since the 2012 peak, due to rising

nominal GDP. While the government has

implemented measures in the past – in particular

the MID reduction, compulsory repayment in order

to be eligible for the MID and loan-to-value and

loan-to-income limits – these do not tackle the

high level of debt directly and may only impact the

debt level in the long run.

(

) Prudential thresholds represent the debt threshold beyond

which the probability of a banking crisis is high,

minimising the probability of missed crisis and that of false

alerts. See also EC (2017h).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

Graph 4.2.4:

Private debt

1800

1600

1400

100

140

120

1200

Billion EUR

1000

800

600

400

200

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

NFC (lhs)

NFC (rhs)

HH & NPISH (lhs)

HH & NPISH (rhs)

Source:

Statistics Netherlands

% of GDP

The number of underwater mortgages has

decreased(

). The most recent loan level data

from the Dutch central bank shows that the number

of underwater mortgages has decreased from 36 %

of total loans in Q1-2013 to 14 % in the Q2-2017.

Much of this is due to the recovering housing

market. Those most affected are aged 30 to 40.

This group consists mainly of first-time buyers

who bought their homes in the years immediately

before the housing market crisis. It is also the

group most exposed to changes in market prices

given the high loan-to-value ratio.

The loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income

(LTI) ratios remain high.

The maximum LTV

ratio for new mortgages has gradually been

lowered to reach 100 % by 2018. While the total

LTV ratio for outstanding debt was at 78 % in

2015, the 30- to 40-year-old homeowners most

affected by underwater mortgages had an average

LTV ratio of 110 % in 2015. The LTI ratio(

) of

that group was at 5.3, whereas the total LTI ratio

stood at 4.2 in 2015.

The government announced a faster reduction

of mortgage interest tax deductibility.

Instead of

reducing the MID by 0.5 pp per year until it

reaches 38 % in 2041, it will be reduced by 3 pps

(

) A mortgage is said to be underwater when the balance of

the mortgage loan exceeds the value of the underlying

property.

(

) Taken from Statistics Netherlands and defined as average

mortgage debt to average disposable income.

from 2020 onwards, reaching 37 % in 2023. While

this is a considerable increase in MID reduction, a

rate of 37 % would still be the highest in the EU.

In addition, this reduction will only affect

taxpayers in the top tax bracket; the measure will

not affect those in the lowest tax brackets(

). A

strong subsidy on debt creation therefore remains.

Recent quasi-experimental research has questioned

the justification of mortgage interest deduction and

has shown that MID induces households to

become more indebted with higher MID regimes

(Gruber, Jensen and Kleven, 2017). The

government has also decided to phase out – over a

period of 30 years starting in 2019 – the so-called

Hillen Act and gradually lower the imputed rent by

0.15 pp per year from the current 0.75 % to 0.6 %

from 2020 onwards. Based on new rules, the tax

on the notional rental value will have to be paid on

the owner-occupied property for which the

mortgage has been almost or fully repaid. So far,

the Hillen Act allowed in such cases that the tax

liability of the notional rental value be reduced to

zero.

Graph 4.2.5:

Debt of large non-financial corporations

160

Other NFCs (balance sheet < EUR 40 mln)

140

Foreign large corporate

NL large corporate

MNEs

% GDP

120

100

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Source:

Statistics Netherlands

The debt of non-financial corporations can

largely be attributed to multinational

enterprises (MNEs).

The MNE share of total NFC

debt increased considerably over the years from

52 % of GDP in 2007 to 90 % in 2015, which

(

) The coalition agreement envisages the introduction of a tax

system with two instead of four tax brackets.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

equals 69 % of the total NFC debt stock(

). Part of

the reason for this high MNE debt is the taxation

and regulatory framework, which provides

incentives for large companies to settle in the

Netherlands and exploit regulatory differences

across borders. Several regulatory features attract

MNEs to the Netherlands (e.g. the patent box

regime, the absence of withholding taxes on

royalties and interest or the common practice of

granting advance tax rulings), although not all of

them are directly linked to debt.

Graph 4.2.6:

Intra-group-to-total debt

% to total group debt

substantially with the large increase in MNE debt

(see Graph 4.2.7). This can also be linked to a

Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU)

ruling from 2003 on the deductibility of interest on

loans for foreign participations (Jansen and

Ligthart, 2014). The CJEU(

) decided that, similar

to domestic participations, interest on loans for the

acquisition of foreign participations should also be

tax deductible in the Netherlands. As NFC intra-

group debt is most likely used for tax optimisation

purposes, it does not point to an immediate

macroeconomic risk.

Graph 4.2.7:

Interest paid and received by multinationals

% of GVA

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Foreign MNE

Foreign large corporates

NL MNE

NL large corporates

received

paid

Source:

Statistics Netherlands

Source:

Statistics Netherlands

Foreign NFCs account for at least 43 % of total

NFC debt, which is mostly intra-group.

The

large share of foreign NFC debt could imply the

use of debt for fiscal reasons. This seems to be

even more plausible given that 60 % of foreign

large NFC debt was intra-group, so loans are

provided across the group, mostly with interest

charged (see Graph 4.2.6). The intra-group debt of

domestic NFCs without international subsidiaries

is indeed much lower (below 5 % in 2015). Intra-

group debt shifting is typically used by MNEs to

lower their tax burden via increased interest

payments to other group companies outside the

Netherlands. The data on interest paid by MNEs

confirm this finding, as the gap between the

interest paid and received by MNEs has widened

(

) The data in this paragraph have been taken from the

Statistics Netherlands website and are based on corporate

financial accounts. They do not fully match NFC data

provided by Eurostat, which are based on national

accounts.

4.2.5. PENSIONS *

The three-pillar pension system scores well on

pension adequacy and fiscal sustainability.

The

first pillar is the pay-as-you-go public pension,

funded by a specific premium and general income

taxes. To ensure its fiscal sustainability, the

statutory retirement age has been linked to life

expectancy (see Section 4.1)(

). The second pillar

is organised at the industry level and capital

funded. At the request of the representative social

partners in the industry participation can be made

compulsory, and pension contributions and

revenues depend on work experience. Although

there is a shift towards defined contribution

(

)

Bosal,

case C-168/01.

(

) Although recently some discussion has risen about the link

to life expectancy, see De Beer, van Dalen and Henkens

(2017).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

schemes(

), some 90 % of workers still fall under

a defined benefit schemes. The third pillar is

formed by individual pension products, and

basically only consists of a tax exemption for

premiums paid on such products. The first and

second pillar aim to provide a replacement rate at

75 % of the average salary at the age of retirement.

The second pillar has drawbacks in terms of

coverage, transparency and flexibility over the

life cycle.

It was developed in the mid-twentieth

century and is not well equipped to deal with the

current

structural

labour

market

trends

(individualisation, flexibility, job mobility between

sectors, ageing). The government aims to

modernise the pension system following the

contours outlined by the Social and Economic

Council (SER). The government wishes to move,

together with the social partners, towards a system

that addresses the vulnerabilities while maintaining

its strengths: compulsory participation, collective

implementation, risk sharing and supportive tax

rules(

The second pension pillar is pro-cyclical and

expensive when interest rates are low.

The past

few years have exposed the vulnerabilities of the

second pension pillar. Low interest rates but also

population ageing and the sharp increase in life

expectancy have created a situation of ‘under-

coverage’ in many pension funds. To keep the

system sustainable, indexation has been foregone

in recent years, and pension contributions have

been increased to around EUR 30 billion, almost

5 % of GDP. Nowadays, salaried employees work

roughly one day a week for their pension. This is

an important contributor to the compulsory

payment wedge, which is comparatively high in

the Netherlands (see Graph 4.2.8; pension

(

) While rendering the pension system less foreseeable for

contributors compared to defined-benefit schemes, defined-

contribution systems imply greater transparency and limit

the risk of significant transfers between generations. In

addition, defined-contribution schemes are usually

actuarially fair.

( ) Current policy institutions limit the possibility for

consumption smoothening over a person’s lifetime. The

pressure on disposable income for those in the early years

of working life comes from two sides: the housing market

where households are pushed into buying a house, taking

up a large mortgage and repaying on the principal, and

from high pension contributions. This contrasts with the

perspective at old age, where households on average have

large pension incomes and little or no housing or child-

related expenses.

contributions explain roughly 70 % of the non-tax

compulsory payment wedge). Total pension fund

assets increased from EUR 778.5 billion in 2009

(127 % of GDP) to EUR 1 378 billion in 2016

(almost 200 % of GDP). However, overall this is

still insufficient to cover the increase in liabilities.

The increase in pension savings has weakened

private consumption growth and increased the

domestic savings surplus. As lower pension

payouts are a last resort, the balance of risks is

geared towards the active and young generations.

In other words, ad hoc adjustments to indexation

and pension contributions have led to pro-cyclical

macroeconomic shocks and could give rise to

intergenerational transfers at the expense of current

younger generations, i.e. they pay higher

premiums for a relatively lower guaranteed

pension.

Graph 4.2.8:

Compulsory payment wedge (2016)

OECD

average tax wedge

average compulsory payment wedge

Source:

OECD (2017). Non-tax compulsory payments

(NTCPs) as an additional burden on labour income in 2016.

http://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/Non-tax-compuslory-

payments.pdf. The chart gives the average compulsory

payment wedge and average tax wedge for single

taxpayers without children at average earnings, 2016.

Pension funds shape the country’s financial

architecture.

Pension funds draw on domestic

household savings and invest them largely

overseas to benefit from global diversification and

respect the fiduciary objective of its

participants(

). While this is beneficial for

portfolio efficiency, questions could be asked

(

) Pension funds have allocated 17 % of their assets in the

Netherlands (Q3-2017) and have a smaller home bias than

other institutional investors.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.2. Financial sector

about the impact on the domestic finance base as it

may influence the relatively low deposit-to-total-

funding ratio of banks (see Section 4.2.1). With a

high compulsory payment wedge, households have

difficulties putting money aside to buy a house,

and by consequence, need to take up mortgage

debt. Banks on the other hand are financing

mortgages on a large scale with money lent on

international capital markets. This creates a

dependence on wholesale finance and increases the

vulnerability to financial turmoil. Pension funds

have only recently started to invest more in the

long side of the Dutch mortgage market.

While there is general consensus on the need to

reform the pension system, concrete steps are

yet to be taken.

In recent years, a number of

incremental policy measures were taken such as an

increase in the retirement age, a change in the tax

system accompanying this increase and measures

in the field of financial supervision, allowing for a

longer recovery period for pension funds with

under-coverage. There are also initiatives to

increase pension fund financing in the domestic

economy, which would benefit economic growth

in the Netherlands. However, few concrete steps

have been taken to address the pro-cyclicality of

the pension system. The strict promise in particular

to deliver a predefined nominal benefit level

carries a high cost; this is ultimately paid by the

pension fund participants themselves and increases

the amplitude of the economic cycle. The reform

directions currently being discussed by the social

partners have promising potential: they could lead

to lower and more stable pension contributions,

while respecting pension adequacy.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. LABOUR MARKET, EDUCATION AND SOCIAL POLICIES

4.3.1. LABOUR MARKET*

Nominal wage growth (%)

Labour market recovery gained further

momentum in 2017.

In the first half of the year,

more than 9 million people were employed in the

Netherlands, which is above the pre-crisis level.

With 77.9 % in 2017 the Netherlands has one of

the highest employment rates in Europe. However,

the employment rate was still slightly below the

pre-crisis level due to an increase in the working

age population. The positive labour market

developments also include a sustained decline in

the unemployment rate, which fell to 4.9 % in

2017. This decline was also reflected in the youth

and long-term unemployment rates.

Graph 4.3.1:

Main labour market developments

Section 1). Low wage growth may be further

explained by the remaining labour market slack,

i.e. a measure of underutilisation of labour

resources(

), estimated at 8.6% in Q3-2017.

Graph 4.3.2:

Relationship between unemployment and

nominal wage growth (2001-2016)

2002

2008

2007

2003

2001

2009

2011

2006

2005

2014

2016

2010

2004

2012

2013

2015

Unemployment rate (%)

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment rate 20-64

Unemployment rate 15-74 (lhs)

Long-term unemployment rate 15-74 (lhs)

Youth unemployment rate 15-24 (lhs)

NEET rate 15-24 (lhs)

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

In addition to macro-economic developments

and labour market slack, increased labour

market segmentation may also partly explain

the low wage growth.

The proportion of

temporary employees rose between 2006 and 2014

from 16 % to 17.3 %. The estimated aggregate

wage growth was 11 % lower due to this increase

in temporary employment, since temporary

employees in general receive a lower wage than

permanent employees, (

(

) Labour market slack is defined as the sum of the persons

available to work but not seeking work; those seeking work

but not immediately

available; and all involuntary part-time

employed (see also EC, 2017g).

(

) Based on a shift-share analysis of the impact of the change

in structure of jobs on wage growth between 2006 and

2014, using the Structure of Earnings Statistics.

Despite low unemployment and high job

vacancy rates, wage growth remains relatively

moderate.

Growth of nominal compensation per

employee remained subdued at 1.2 % in 2016.

While accelerating to 1.7 % in 2017, it remains

below the level which could be expected based on

the low level of unemployment (See Graph 4.3.2)

and based on other fundamental drivers such as

inflation and productivity (see Graph 1.5 in

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Box 4.3.1:

Monitoring performance in light of the European Pillar of Social Rights

The European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed on 17 November 2017 by the European Parliament, the

Council and the European Commission, sets out 20 key principles and rights to benefit citizens in the EU. In

light of the legacy of the crisis and changes in our societies driven by population ageing, technological

change and new ways of working, the Pillar serves as a compass for a renewed process of convergence

towards better working and living conditions.

The Netherlands performs relatively well on

the indicators of the Social Scoreboard (

)

supporting the European Pillar of Social

Rights.

The country displays an overall good

labour market and social situation. Per capita real

gross disposable income of households increased

in 2016 and is almost at pre-crisis levels. Income

inequality is relatively low, although it increased

slightly in 2016. Regarding equal opportunities in

the labour market and fair working conditions,

the issue of labour market segmentation deserves

continuing attention.

The gender imbalance in labour market

participation has been very slow to adjust

under the current incentives of the work-life

balance policies.

The gender gap in employment

leads to an important gender gap in old-age

pensions that raises a point of concern with

respect to equal opportunities in the labour

market. The high part-time employment rate of

women is a result of a combination of factors.

One of them is the system of family-related

leaves (paternity and parental leave), which does

not support a gender balanced take-up of leaves,

leading to an unequal sharing of caring

responsibilities between mothers and fathers and

discourages first earners, often men, from using

them.

NETHERLANDS

Early leavers from education

and training (% of population

aged 18-24)

On average

Better than average

Best performers

Better than average

On average

Equal

opportunities

and access to

the labour

market

Gender employment gap

Income quintile ratio

(S80/S20)

At risk of poverty or social

exclusion (in %)

Youth NEET (% of total

population aged 15-24)

Employment rate (%

population aged 20-64)

Unemployment rate (%

population aged 15-74)

GDHI per capita growth

Dynamic labour

markets and

fair working

conditions

Impact of social transfers

(other than pensions) on

Good but to monitor

poverty reduction

Social

Children aged less than 3 years

Better than average

protection and

in formal childcare

Self-reported unmet need for

inclusion

Better than average

medical care

Individuals' level of digital skills

Best performers

Members States' are classified according to a statistical methodology agreed with the

EMCO and SPC Committees. The methodology looks jointly at levels and changes of the

indicators in comparison with the respective EU averages, and classifies Member

States in seven categories (from "best performers" to "critical situations"). For instance,

a country can be flagged as "better than average" if the level of the indicator is close to

EU average, but it is improving fast. For methodological details, please consult the draft

Joint Employment Report 2018, COM (2017) 674 final.

NEET: neither in employment nor in education or training; GDHI: gross disposable

household income.

The rate of youth not in employment, education or training is comparatively low.

In 2016 the

Netherlands continued policy initiatives to address youth unemployment. The government implements the so

called 'City Deal Aanpak Jeugdwerkloosheid', a policy programme and partnership between 7 cities and

schools (secondary and tertiary), researchers, employers and intermediaries. The focus is to identify solutions

for (migrant) youth in disadvantaged neighbourhoods to improve their preparation for a better transition to

work by focusing on career guidance at their school. Within the programme 'Matchen op Werk' the Dutch

government invests together with municipalities, Public Employment Services (UWV) and their partners in

sustainable work opportunities for youth. Together they aim at improving services for employers - the key

partners in tackling youth unemployment - and improving access to job openings.

The Social Scoreboard includes 14 headline indicators, of which 12 are currently used to compare Member States performance.

The indicators "participants in active labour market policies per 100 persons wanting to work" and "compensation of employees

per hour worked (in EUR)" are not used due to technical concerns by Member States. Possible alternatives will be discussed in

the relevant Committees. Abbreviation: GDHI – gross disposable household income.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

While in the past years trade unions have

foregone wage demands in exchange for

employment protection, wage demands are far

higher for 2018.

The Netherlands Trade Union

Confederation (FNV), the Dutch largest trade

union, has called for a minimum wage increase of

3.5 % in nominal terms in 2018, with up to 5 % for

low earners. This contrasts with the wage demands

in the past years which were more moderate and

when the main objective was to preserve

employment and reduce the share of temporary

employment. The actual outcome remains to be

seen.

Female labour market participation

Despite the labour market performing well,

there is still untapped labour potential.

While

the employment rate of women is high (71.6 % in

2016), almost three out of four women (74.8 %)

work in part-time. As a result, the full-time

equivalent employment rate of women is much

lower (48.9 %) and the gender gap in full-time

equivalents is one of the highest in the EU (27.2

pps). The share of part-time employment rate is

particularly high among women with caring

responsibilities (see Graph 4.3.3): in 2016, 86 % of

the women with at least one child under 14 years

worked part-time, while 51 % of women without

children did. However, in recent years the part-

time employment rate for women with children has

fallen and the hours worked part-time have

increased, while there is no similar trend visible

for women without children (see Graph 4.3.4).

Having children did not have a major effect on the

proportion of men working on a part-time basis.

However, it is worth noting that the part-time

employment rate for men is well above the EU

average and that of neighbouring countries.

Differences in work intensity result in a large

earnings gap (47.5 % in 2014) and later in life in a

large gender pension gap later in life (42.5 % in

2016)

Historically speaking, part-time employment of

women has always been high in the Netherlands

and may therefore be slow to adjust.

The high

share of part-time employment rate is a result of a

combination of multiple factors and institutional

drivers, such as the design of family-related leaves,

as well as intermediate cost and availability of full-

time childcare and after school care (Portegijs et

al., 2008; Task Force Part-time Plus, 2010).

Graph 4.3.3:

Share of part-time work with and without

children (2016)

Child

No child

Women

Men

Women

(1) The Graph represents the share of part-time employment

of women and men (aged 30-45) dependent on the

presence of children under the age of 14 in the household.

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat, Labour Force

Survey)

Graph 4.3.4:

Female labour market participation (with

child)

Men

Share part-time work

Hours worked

Hours worked (lhs)

Share part-time (rhs)

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

These may affect the (unequal) sharing of caring

responsibilities between men and women. At the

same time, research suggests that the way in which

work-life balance policies are designed and the

incentives that they induce could have an impact

on the choices made and therefore on the

employment outcomes of women (OECD, 2017d;

Eurofound, 2017b). In particular, the fact that

parental leave is often unpaid discourages main

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

earners (often men) from using it; it therefore

strengthens the role of women as primary carers

for their children. The fact that only 2 days of paid

paternity leave are offered to men may also be

acting as a brake on the equal sharing of childcare

responsibilities. In this respect, the new

government agreement proposes increasing

paternity leave from 2 to 5 days in 2019. This is to

be extended as of 1 July 2020 by 5 weeks of

additional leave, to be taken within the first 6

months of the birth.

Labour market integration of migrants

immigrants from ‘non-Western countries’ (54.2 %)

largely because of much higher unemployment.

Moreover, even after adjusting for skills (literacy

score), age, gender and education level (OECD,

2014, Table A.7), native-born children of two

immigrant parents had a lower probability of being

employed (19.4 pps) in 2012 than native-born

children of two native-born parents.

There is scope to strengthen integration

programmes.

The efficiency of the (2012-2014)

reform of the integration policy for immigrants can

be questioned. It obliges them to learn Dutch and

take a civic integration test, while putting most of

the responsibilities of integration — in particular

language learning (including the financial burden)

— on immigrants (see Algemene Rekenkamer,

2017). The low success rate in language tests and

the quality of integration courses are also issues of

concern. The new coalition plans to increase public

funding on language courses (‘from day 1’) while

increasing the level of language proficiency

required. While the current re-evaluation of the

integration policy seems necessary, it is unclear

whether it will sufficiently address the integration

needs of newcomers on the labour market.

Segmentation*

While the overall participation rate is very high,

people with a migrant background are lagging

behind in employment.

The situation of those

born outside the EU remains a key issue in

particular. The employment rate of non-EU-born

migrants stood at 58.9 % in 2016 and is

20.6 percentage points (pps) lower than for

natives, a slight increase compared to 2015

(20.2 pps). The gap is larger for non-EU-born

women (23.4 pps lower than native-born women)

due to very high inactivity rates among them. Non-

EU-born migrants also face a higher

unemployment rate (12.1 %) than those born in the

Netherlands (5.4 %), in particular those aged 15-

24. Differences in labour market outcomes for

non-EU-born migrants can be explained only

partially by differences in age and educational

achievement. This suggests that other factors such

as lack of recognition of qualifications, language

skills, limited professional networks or

discrimination may play a role (EC, 2017b).

The labour market outcomes of the ‘second-

generation’ (i.e. native-born residents with a

migrant background) are also unfavourable,

even though they were born and educated in the

Netherlands.

Looking at data recently published

by Statistics Netherlands(

), the employment rate

of native-born residents with a migrant background

from ‘non-Western’ countries(

) aged 15-74 was

around 60.1 % in 2016, well below the average for

those without a migrant background (67.4 %)

(CBS,

2017a,

Table

Arbeidsparticipatie).

However, it was higher than for first-generation

(

) There is no recent data on native born with a migrant

background in the Netherlands from the European Labour

Force Survey.

( ) At least one parent born in Africa, Asia (excl. Japan or

Indonesia) or Latin America.

Flexible employment constitutes a relatively

large and growing share of the labour market.

Both temporary employment as well as self-

employment without employees increased

considerably in the last 10 years in the Netherlands

(see Graph 4.3.5). Changes in industrial production

— with employment shifting towards sectors that

are more prone to self-employment or temporary

employment — only partly explain the recent shift

towards more flexible employment. This situation

is also affected by distinct institutional factors,

including favourable tax treatment (for the self-

employed without employees) and differences in

social security legislation as well as large

differences in applicable labour regulations and

labour protection rules for permanent and

temporary contracts (EC, 2017b, p. 30; EC, 2016a,

pp. 46-49).

The recent upsurge in job creation is mainly

down to temporary employment and self-

employment.

This trend suggests a further

increase in the flexibility of the Dutch labour

market. Despite the 2015 reforms (see below), the

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

proportion of temporary employees (aged 20-64)

continued to increase, reaching 18.4 % in Q3-2017

(EU average: 13.7 %). The proportion of self-

employed without employees in total employment

was 12.1 % in Q3-2017 (EU average: 9.9 %). The

group of self-employed without employees is

highly diverse, and self-employment without

employees has increased across all sectors (see

Graph 4.3.6) and age groups.

Graph 4.3.5:

Employment (20-64 year) by type (y-o-y

changes)

200

100

exposed to temporary contracts: 44.1 % of

employees under 30 are on temporary contracts

(EU average: 32.2 %). This is a significant

increase compared to 2005, when only 33.0 % of

employees under 30 worked on temporary

contracts. The high prevalence of temporary

employment negatively affects the job duration

and career prospects of young people. The average

job tenure of workers under 30 decreased from 27

months in 2005 to 21 months in 2015. Estimates

show that around half of this decline can be

attributed to the increase in temporary contracts for

young workers (EC, 2017f). There are also

negative implications for their incomes given the

significant wage gap between temporary and

permanent workers (see Box 4.3.2).

Graph 4.3.6:

Self-employed by sector ( % of total

employment in the sector)

Agriculture

Arts, entertainment

Thousend persons

-100

-200

Permanent employees

Temporary employees

Other service activities

Science and techical services

Construction

-300

Self employment

Overall

ICT

Real estate activities

Administration and support

-400

09Q1

09Q3

10Q1

10Q3

11Q1

11Q3

12Q1

12Q3

13Q1

13Q3

14Q1

14Q3

15Q1

15Q3

16Q1

16Q3

17Q1

17Q3

Total

Education

Accommodation & food

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat, non-seasonally

adjusted data)

2016

2008

Wholesale and retail trade

The self-employed are not obliged to be insured

against labour-related risks such as accidents at

work, unemployment and old age (second

pillar).

They are only entitled to healthcare, long-

term care, family benefits, a state pension (first

pillar) and survivors’ benefits. There are no

sickness benefits (sick pay) for them during the

first 2 years of long-term sickness. Everyone in the

Netherlands, including the self-employed, has

compulsory basic private health insurance.

However, the majority of the self-employed (57 %)

indicate that they would feel financially insecure if

they were faced with a serious long-term illness

(EU average: 48 %) (Eurofound, 2017a)(

Around one in five employees in the

Netherlands was employed on a temporary

contract in 2016.

New entrants in particular are

(

) See also the case study ‘Access to social protection for

self-employed without employees in the Netherlands’ by

Regioplan.

Human health and social work

Financial and insurance…

Transportation and storage

Manufacturing

10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

In 2015, the government implemented a major

reform to reduce the differences between

temporary and permanent contracts.

This

reform was discussed in detail in European

Commission 2016a and European Commission

2017a. Given that the measures are being

introduced gradually, a formal evaluation of the

reform is only expected in 2020. Preliminary

evidence on the impact of the changes introduced

under the Dutch dismissal and unemployment law

(Wet

werk and zekerheid)

indicates that the

changes, including the decline in severance pay,

did not influence the decision of employers to

dismiss or recruit permanent employees (Heyma et

al., 2017). The transition rates from temporary to

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

permanent contracts have remained fairly constant

in the last 3 years, ranging from 11 % to 12 % per

quarter (see Graph 4.3.7). The enforcement of a

mechanism adopted to reduce incentives for

employers to replace employees with bogus self-

employment has been suspended until at least the

beginning of 2018.

In order to modernise the labour market and

address segmentation, the new government

announced several additional measures, but

specifics and time frame for adoption remains

unclear.

The most important are (1) shortening of

employer-paid sick leave from 2 years to 1 year for

small enterprises (under 25 employees); (2) the

introduction of an additional ground for dismissal

in case of an open-ended contract; (3) the

introduction of a minimum hourly rate for self-

employed without employees to reduce bogus self-

employment. At the same time (4) the total

duration that a person can be employed on a

temporary contract will be extended from two to

three years (in line with legislation prior to 2015)

but he/she will be eligible for the transition

allowance as of the beginning of their employment

contract (instead of after 2 years only as

previously). In addition, the government suggested

reflecting further on possible differentiation in

contributions for unemployment insurance per type

of contract and the qualification of self-employed.

At this point, the time frame for adoption as well

as the possible impact of these new measures on

the labour market segmentation remains unclear.

Social dialogue is an essential feature of the so-

called Poldermodel in the Netherlands and

functions overall rather well.

Social partners

were consulted on the intention and possible policy

options to reform of the second pillar pension

system. The new government equally intends to

involve them extensively in the context of the

ambitious agenda to reform the labour market.

Graph 4.3.7:

Transition rate from temporary to permanent

employment by quarter

15%

14%

13%

12%

11%

10%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Source:

European Commission (based on Statistics

Netherlands)

Poverty and

Netherlands

social

exclusion

the

Even though the Netherlands has one of the

lowest rates of at risk of poverty or social

exclusion in the EU, this indicator increased by

364 000 persons from 2008 to 2016.

The poverty-

reducing impact of social transfers (excluding

pensions) has slowed considerably in the last year

— although it remains at a decent level, above the

EU average. Netherlands shows good results in

adequacy of the minimum income support (as a

share of the poverty threshold) and the relative

poverty risk gap. As concerns unemployment

benefits, Netherlands performs close to the EU

average in terms of adequacy, although duration

(for a 1-year work record) is comparatively

low(

). The income benefits are combined with

incentives to (re)integrate into the labour market,

as people who receive social assistance are

required to accept reasonable offers of work. The

in-work at risk of poverty rate in the Netherlands

has increased in 2016 by 6 pps (although the data

indicates a break in series) and reached 5.6 %

which is well below the EU average (9.5 % in

2015).

(

) According to the benchmarking exercise in the area of

unemployment benefits and active labour market policies

conducted within the EMCO Committee. See the draft

Joint Employment Report 2018 for details.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

The number of people living in low work

intensity households has decreased.

When

setting its Europe 2020 objectives, the Netherlands

committed itself to reducing the number of people

living in a household with very low work intensity

(working less than 20 % of their total potential) by

100 000 by 2020 compared to 2008. This reduction

is aimed at the age groups up to 64 years, rather

than 59 years as envisaged in the Eurostat

indicator. However, since 2008 figures have been

shifting. As of 2016, 51 000 people were lifted out

of low work intensity households. Thus the EU-

2020 objective is reached by half.

Non-EU-born people face a higher risk of

poverty or social exclusion.

Among the

population aged 18 and over born in the

Netherlands, the proportion of people at risk of

poverty or social exclusion has remained stable

from 2008 to 2016 at 13.7 %. Among non-EU-

born residents, it increased from 31.7 % in 2009 to

39.6 % in 2016. This is directly related to the

vulnerable labour market position of many non-

EU-born migrants as described above.

performance of students from an immigrant

background remains a major challenge as it then

translates into lower labour market performance.

Non-immigrant children perform significantly

better than immigrant children in all three PISA

areas. This difference also holds for second-

generation pupils. Even after taking into account

socioeconomic differences, pupils with a migrant

background (both first- and second-generation)

score far worse than those without a migrant

background, with a 41-point difference in reading

and 31 in mathematics (Meelissen et al., 2012).

The adult participation in learning is high in

general and well above the EU average.

The

participation rate in learning for low-skilled adults

(9.1 % in 2016) is also considerably higher than

the EU average (4.2 %). A special commission

(Commissie vraagfinanciering MBO, 2017) was

set up in September 2016 to provide the

government with advice on ‘vouchers’ in upper

secondary vocational education and training

(VET). As a follow-up to the ‘Technology pact’

(Nationaal

Techniekpact)

and the 2011-2015

‘Focus on Craftsmanship’ action plan, experiments

are taking place between May 2015 and July 2021

in upper secondary VET schools to integrate the

school-based track and dual/apprenticeship track.

Students will start in the school-based track and

can switch to the other track after acquiring the

relevant theoretical and practical skills. The

experiment addresses the need of VET schools and

companies for more flexibility between both tracks

and to stimulate cooperation between them. The

new measures are consistent with the Upskilling

Pathways Recommendation(

) on addressing the

low-skilled adults in their ability to acquire and

maintain skills and manage successfully the

transitions in the labour market.

The Netherlands faces an increasing shortage of

teachers.

In primary education, a shortfall of 4 000

full-time equivalents is expected in 2020, with

10 000 full-time equivalents needed in 2025

(Fontein et al., 2015). In secondary education, a

shortage is expected for certain subjects such as

mathematics, science and foreign languages. After

several years of a drop in applications, initial

teacher training programmes saw a small increase

of 5 % in enrolments in 2016 (Ministry of

(

) Adopted by the Council on 19

(2016/C 484/01).

December 2016

4.3.2. EDUCATION AND SKILLS

Despite performing well in general, there has

been some decline in basic skills and an increase

in performance differences between schools.

While the proportion of low achievers in the 2015

OECD Programme for International Student

Assessment (PISA) was still below the EU

average, it did increase in all three areas (reading,

mathematics and science). Differences between

schools have the largest impact on pupils’

performance of all OECD countries (OECD,

2016a), and are strongly linked to the different

tracks offered. Differences also exist between

schools with similar student populations (Ministry

of Education, Culture and Science, 2017a).

Several new measures aim to close performance

gaps between students from disadvantaged and

more favourable backgrounds.

The number of

pupils in primary special education has decreased

by more than 6 % since the introduction of the

‘Education that fits’ policy (passend

onderwijs)

2014-2015. All schools are now responsible for

placing each child, including those with special

educational needs, in a suitable educational setting,

preferably in mainstream education. The school

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4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Education, Culture and Science, 2017b). On

average, 5.1 % of all classes in secondary

education were given by staff without professional

teaching qualifications in 2015. In line with the

2013-2020 Teachers’ Agenda, measures have been

implemented to improve the quality of teaching,

continuing professional development and career

prospects.

Although the Netherlands has a large pool of

educated and skilled workers, the low number

of STEM (science, technology, engineering and

mathematics) graduates limits its innovation

capacity.

In 2015, only 17 % of masters students

graduated in STEM fields, and only a third of these

were women. Despite the very open labour market,

it remains a concern given the pronounced role that

STEM profiles play in industry and technological

innovation. The proportion of STEM graduates in

the population is still one of the lowest in the EU,

although the number is increasing. An apparent

lack of suitable ICT professionals(

) and skills

mismatches due to the low use of ICT skills on the

job (OECD, 2015) is a major issue for the

development of the digital economy and digital

society. Shortages are expected to continue;

according to the Dutch employee insurance agency

(Van der Aalst and Van den Beukel, 2017),

shortages are greatest in technical and ICT jobs.

The Human Capital Agenda ICT has been set up to

meet the demand for more ICT specialists. The

initial results of the Technology Pact 2020 show

that more students are signing up for technical

studies, with an increase in the number of female

students (monitor Techniekpact, 2017).

(

) Statistics Netherlands (2017) reports that one in four ICT

firms had labour shortages in the second quarter of 2017

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.3. Labour market, education and social policies

Box 4.3.1:

Implications of temporary employment on income

This box analyses the implications of temporary employment on income, in particular on hourly

wages and poverty. It draws upon the analysis of segmentation in the 2018 Labour Market and

Wage Developments report.

Graph 1: Share of temporary employees

by wage quintile (2014)

In almost all EU countries, the wages

of permanent employees are higher

than the wages of temporary

employees. In 2014 the gap in the

Netherlands was one of the highest in

the EU. Compared to other Member

States, the share of temporary workers

with a low income represent a

relatively high share (36.5 % of

temporary employees had an hourly

wage among the lowest 20 % of all

wages) (see Graph 1)

The large difference between wages

temporary

and

permanent

employees can partly be attributed to

differences in productivity, which can

partly be explained by observable

individual and job characteristics. For

example, in Netherlands 62 % of all

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

temporary workers (15-64) in 2016

Quintile 1

Quintile 2

Quintile 3

Quintile 4

Quintile 5

are younger than 30, which may

explain why their wages are lower as

compared to permanent employees who are on average older

20%

Therefore, in a next step the wage is

Wage premium for permanent employees

adjusted by taking into account differences

Adjusted gap 2014

Adjusted gap 2010

in individual charasteristics (age, gender

15%

and educational attainment) as well as

differences in job characteristics (working

time arrangement, occupation and sector of

10%

employment). The results indicate that

even after controlling for differences in

individual

and

job

characteristics,

permenant workers earn on average more

than 11 % more than temporary employees

(see Graph 2). The adjusted wage gap is

found to be increasing with age, reaching

the highest level for individual between 40

-5%

and 50 years old (12 %). Nevertheless also

for young individuals (20 to 29 years old)

the wage gap is found to be highly

significant (7 %). Further, the adjusted wage gap is found to increase with educational attainment,

ranging between 7 % for those with low-education (ISCED 0-2) and 19 % for those with a master

degree or above (ISCED 7-8). The precarious income situation is of temporary employees is also

reflected in a higher at-risk of poverty rate of temporary employees (7.9 % in 2016) as compared

to permanent employees (3.7 % in 2016)

% of hourly wage

(temporary emp.)

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4.4. INVESTMENT*

With a sharp pick-up in residential

construction, total investment returned to its

long-term average of 20 % of GDP in 2016.

Residential investment increased to 4 % of GDP in

2016. This is up from 3 % at the end of the crisis,

but still well below the 6 % of GDP average in the

decade before the crisis. Public investment

remained stable at around 3.5 % of GDP, which is

around 1 pp. higher than the euro area average.

Private investment on the other hand was 1.3 pps

lower than the euro area average.

Graph 4.4.1:

Investment by asset

towards foreign investment, as domestic

investment has declined (see Graph 4.4.2).

Graph 4.4.2:

Domestic and foreign investment

domestic investment

foreign investment

% of GDP

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

residential construction

other construction

other investment

equipment

euro area total investment

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

Table 4.4.1:

Investment by sector NL and euro area (% of

GDP)

pre-crisis average

Netherlands

total

private

public

euro area

total

private

public

21.6

17.6

3.9

2016

19.9

16.4

3.5

22.3

19.1

3.2

20.3

17.7

2.5

The high savings surplus is driven by non-

financial corporations, but recent changes were

driven by other domestic sectors.

A breakdown

by institutional sector shows that the savings

surplus of the non-financial corporation sector

increased over time, from 2-3 % of GDP on

average in 1995-2000 to 5-6 % in 2001-2005 and

8 % of GDP on average over the last decade. With

a relatively stable and large NFC surplus, changes

in the net lending position were driven by

households and the general government sector.

Households were net borrowers in the run-up to

the crisis. However, they turned into net savers

after that, following a decline in household

investment and increasing pension savings(

together with deleveraging needs (see Section 4.2).

The government also turned from a net borrower

into a net lender in 2016, which further increased

the total economy's net saving position between

2009 and 2016.

(

) Net pension savings involve the difference between the

annual pay-out of pensions and pension contributions. This

difference is visible in the pension fund sector accounts

(other financial corporations) but is transferred to the

household sector in the national accounts (‘correction for

the change in net equity of pension funds’). Employers also

pay pension contributions, implying that higher pension

contributions lead to a decline in NFC net savings.

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat); pre-crisis average

covers 2000-2008.

Domestic investment is low compared with total

savings, making the Dutch economy a net

lender to the world.

The Dutch economy has been

running a savings surplus since the early 1980s.

Total domestic savings are relatively stable in

terms of GDP, but are increasingly channelled

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.4. Investment

Graph 4.4.3:

Net lending/borrowing by sector

global decline in interest rates has led to lower

interest

expenditures

non-financial

corporations, further increasing gross savings.

Graph 4.4.4:

Non-financial corporate sector saving and

investment

% of GDP

-4

-8

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

households and NPISH

financial corporations

total

general government

non-financial corporations

% of GDP

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

% of GDP

Non-financial corporation (NFC) savings are

exceptionally high.

NFC net lending amounted to

7 % in 2016, which is five times the euro area

average and two times higher than in Germany.

Gross NFC sector savings stood at 17.5 % of GDP

in 2016, compared with a euro area average of

13.6 % of GDP. However, NFC sector investments

equalled 10.3 % of GDP compared with the euro

area average of 12.2 %. This implies that around

two thirds of the NL-EA difference in NFC sector

net lending/borrowing is explained on the savings

side of the income sheet, and one third via lower

investments.

Gross NFC savings are primarily driven by

high earnings.

The operating surplus explains the

bulk of gross saving (see Graph 4.4.5)(

Dividends received and dividends paid both

greatly increased in 2005, which illustrates the

importance of multinationals' headquarter location

decisions on balance of payments statistics(

). The

(

) NFC gross savings consist of the operating surplus and

other primary income such as capital income (dividends

and interest receipts), minus expenditure on interest,

dividends paid, corporate income taxes and other

secondary incomes. The operating surplus is gross value

added less compensation of employees plus subsidies

minus production taxes.

(

) In 2005, energy company Royal Dutch Shell moved its

headquarters to the Netherlands ending its bi-country

governance structure. Shell is one of the largest companies

in the world with an annual income of EUR 212 billion in

2016, or 30 % of Dutch GDP. Received distributed income

increased from just below 21 % of the net operating surplus

to 47 % in 2005. Eggelte et al. (2014) estimated, based on

average net profits and dividend payout ratios, that Shell

Gross Savings

Investments

Average 2012-2016

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

Graph 4.4.5:

Gross savings by non-financial corporations

-10

-20

Other secondary income (-)

Dividends paid (-)

Taxes on income (-)

Interest paid (-)

Other primary income (-)

Interest received (+)

Dividends received (+)

Gross operating surplus (+)

Gross savings (+)

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

In comparison with other EU countries, the

relatively high profit share and low distributed

income accounts for the NFC savings surplus.

alone may have accounted for a NFC savings surplus of

1.5 % of GDP (Eggelte et al., 2014). The volatility in net

profits in 2015 and 2016 make it impossible to extrapolate

this number.

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4.4. Investment

Dutch NFC savings are almost 6 pps higher than

the euro area average. Roughly half of this can be

explained by a relatively large gross operating

surplus. The other half is explained by low net

distributed incomes. Table 4.4.2 compares the

savings of the Dutch non-financial corporation

sector with the euro area average as well as with

peer countries such as France and Germany. The

difference with Germany comes solely from net

distributed income (mainly dividends), while the

differences in NFC savings with France are

entirely accounted for by a lower NFC gross

operating surplus. Differences in secondary

incomes such as corporate income taxes do not

play an important role.

Table 4.4.2:

% of GDP

their equity holdings abroad by around 50 pps of

GDP, which is equivalent to an increase from 26 %

to 43 % of total assets (see EC, 2017b). In short,

high retained earnings seem to be used to finance

foreign investment by multinationals.

Graph 4.4.6:

Gross operating surplus and components

% of GDP

-20

27 26

24 23 23 23

Non-financial corporate sector income sheet

B2g

D42

B5g

D51

B8g

-40

Operating surplus, gross

Net property income

Distributed income of corporations received

Distributed income of corporations paid

Balance of primary incomes

corporate income taxes

other secondary income/expenditure

Saving, gross

pro memorie: net dividends

24.4

-4.3

5.2

-7.3

20.2

-1.8

-0.3

18.1

-2.0

21.1

-6.2

3.3

-8.9

14.9

-2.0

-0.5

12.3

-5.6

23.7

-8.0

1.9

-11.1

15.7

-2.1

-0.3

13.3

-9.2

16.4

-3.4

7.0

-9.2

13.0

-1.8

-1.1

10.1

-2.3

Subsidies

Compensation of employees

Gross operating surplus

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat); average 2012-

2016

Average 2014-2016

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

Profitability is particularly high in the trade

and manufacturing sectors.

The three year

average NFC operating surplus in the Netherlands

is roughly 24.5 % of GDP, compared to a euro area

average just above 21 % (see Graph 4.4.6). This

difference already exists in NFC value added,

which is relatively high in terms of GDP. This is

only partially transferred into compensation of

employees, where the difference with other

countries is less marked. An assessment by

industry shows that in particular the trade and

manufacturing sectors play a significant role (See

Graph 4.4.7).

The net payout ratio of dividends is very low,

and points to high retained earnings, being used

to finance foreign investment.

Compared with

other Member States, Dutch NFCs receive

relatively large amounts of distributed income

from abroad (mainly dividends), while on the other

hand the payout ratio is relatively low, resulting in

very low net distributed income (see Graph 4.4.8).

An assessment of the balance sheets of

multinational enterprises suggests that retained

earnings were used to finance foreign investment.

Between 2005 and 2015, multinationals increased

Graph 4.4.7:

Net operating surplus by sector

Billion EUR

Average 2012-2015

Source:

European Commission and Statistics Netherlands

(production statistics)

Ireland

Lithuania

Estonia

Latvia

Netherlands

Germany

Slovakia

Belgium

Austria

Spain

Euro area

Finland

Portugal

Italy

Slovenia

Greece

Luxembourg

France

Taxes on production and imports

Gross value added

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4.4. Investment

Graph 4.4.8:

Net distributed income ratios

Graph 4.4.9:

Corporate savings by firm size

18%

16%

14%

% of net operating surplus

% of GDP

12%

10%

MNE

small and medium size firms

other large firms

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat); average 2014-

2016.

(1) Gross saving is defined as gross operating surplus and

other primary income less interest paid, taxes and dividends

(methodology Jansen and Ligthart 2014).The series contain

a break in 2011: since that year the balance sheet threshold

for large firms and MNEs is EUR 40 million; it was EUR 23 million

before 2011.

Source:

European Commission (Statistics

Netherlands/Statistiek Financiën Grote Ondernemingen and

Statistiek Financiën Alle Ondernemingen;).

Netherlands

Greece

Spain

Slovenia

Slovakia

Estonia

Finland

Ireland

France

Portugal

Belgium

Sweden

Euro area

Cyprus*

Austria

Lithuania

Latvia

Germany

Italy

MNEs drive corporate sector savings.

While

only around 2 % of all companies active in the

Netherlands are classified as multinationals, they

account for 40 % of private sector employment and

around two thirds of private sector turnover (CBS,

2015). In particular MNE saving is volatile (See

Graph 4.4.9). Although the production process and

definitions are not comparable with national

accounts, net savings by large firms account for

roughly two thirds of total NFC savings. This

suggests that in particular these firms are net

lenders to the economy (see also EC, 2017b).

Real perspective on the current account

The current account surplus of the Netherlands

averaged 6 % of GDP over the past three

decades.

In 2012, the current account balance

reached a peak of 10.3 % of GDP, before declining

slightly to 9 % of GDP in 2016 (see Graph 4.4.10).

In the last decade, the current account surplus

remained significantly above both the long-term

average and the current account benchmarks.

Fundamental drivers explain 3.8 pps of the current

account surplus, according to Commission current

account 'norm' estimations for 2016.(

) This figure

is mainly due to the high income per capita, and

expected ageing relative to the rest of the world

that imply implying net capital exports, as well as

the Netherland's status as corporate financial

centre for multinationals.

The balance on primary incomes declined

sharply between 2012 and 2016.

With a stable

overall trade surplus, the recent decline in the

current account surplus was mainly driven by a

considerable decrease in net primary incomes,

from a surplus of 2.4 % of GDP in 2012 to a

deficit of -1.2 % of GDP in 2016. This decline was

mostly visible in revenues from direct investment,

(

) The current account 'norm' benchmark is derived from

regressions capturing the main fundamental determinants

of the saving-investment balance (e.g. demographics,

resources), as well as policy factors and global financial

conditions. See also European Commission 2017k.

Corresponding IMF current account 'norm' estimates

suggest a level of 5.5% of GDP for 2016. See IMF 2017.

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4.4. Investment

but partly offset by increasing portfolio revenues.

In 2016, the balance of secondary incomes was

affected by a one-off payment of EUR 2.7 billion

from the EU budgetary contributions to the Dutch

state.

Graph 4.4.10:

Current account

Graph 4.4.11:

Trade balance goods by product group (2016)

Export value

Import value

billion EUR

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

% of GDP

-3

-6

99' 00' 01' 02' 03' 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Primary income balance

Secondary income balance

Trade balance - services

Trade balance - goods

Trade balance

Current account balance (CA)

Machinery & transport equipment

Manufactured articles

Chemical & related products, n.e.s.

Food & live animals & others

Mineral fuels, lubricants, related materials

Crude materials, inedible, except fuels

Source:

European Commission (Statistics Netherlands)

Graph 4.4.12:

Trade balance services by product group

(2016)

Exports

Imports

Balance

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

in EUR billions

-10

-20

The strong trade in goods continues to be the

main driver of the current account surplus.

While the trade balance in goods achieved a

surplus of 11.9 % of GDP in 2016, the trade

balance in services recorded a deficit of 0.9 % of

GDP. The trade surplus in goods is mostly driven

by chemical products as well as food and live

animals. The economy shows a stable export

specialisation in agricultural products such as cut

flowers, bulbs and other plants compared to the

EU-15. According to an analysis by Statistics

Netherlands, the trade balance is inflated to a large

extent by re-exports, which account for roughly

45 % of total exports (CBS, 2017c). Although re-

exported goods are not processed or changed much

while in the Netherlands, Statistics Netherlands

estimates that the domestic value added of re-

exports is around 11 cents per exported euro,

leading to a total value added of just below 3 % of

GDP in 2016.(

) The trade deficit in services is

largely driven by trade in royalties, tourism and

transport services.

(

) This is also illustrated by the high net operating surplus of

the trading sector, see Graph 4.4.7.

-30

-40

-50

Source:

European Commission (Statistics Netherlands)

Economic consequences

Large persistent surpluses could point to a

suboptimal allocation of economic resources

over time and/or between certain sectors.

The

large and persistent national savings surplus has

been questioned as a sign of inefficiencies.(

Large second pillar pension savings, for instance,

drive up the compulsory tax and non-tax payment

burden on labour (the combination of taxes, health

care and pension contributions, see Section 4.2). In

the midst of the crisis, pension reserves kept

(

) The persistent national savings surplus was already

questioned by Bovenberg (1991) and SER (1992). See

Fransman (2014) for an extensive recent analysis.

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4.4. Investment

growing, among others due to higher premiums

driving up the household saving rate, and driving

down net take-home pay. Pro-cyclical income and

consumption dynamics are further fuelled by

household balance sheet issues. Dutch households

typically have long balance sheets, with large

illiquid pension entitlements and housing equity on

the asset side and high household debt on the

liability side. Relatively low liquidity of

households increases the volatility of consumer

demand over the cycle. This led to a relatively

large reduction in private consumption compared

with other EU countries. Addressing household

balance sheet issues, amongst others via an

overhaul of the second pension pillar (as currently

being discussed by the social partners, see Section

4.2.4), has the potential to reduce the volatility of

the household savings-investment balance and

make the domestic economy more resilient to

financial shocks

The persistent net lending position did not

develop into an equivalent net international

investment position.

By running current account

surpluses, a country builds up a positive net

international investment position (NIIP). While

this makes the surplus country a creditor, it

harbours a risk of valuation gains/losses due to

changes in exchange rates and market prices.

Although NIIP increased in line with the current

account surpluses in recent years, the NIIP remains

far below the level of cumulated annual current

account surpluses over a longer period (see Graph

4.4.13).

Symmetric rebalancing would be beneficial for

the euro area economy.

Although the euro area

economy has experienced relatively strong

expansion in recent years, Commission analysis

points to a shortfall in domestic demand (see

Graph 4.4.14). A saving surplus in the Netherlands

increases the supply of capital to other countries

(in the EU, but also to the rest of the world) and

lowers interest rates. In normal economic

conditions, this would stimulate domestic demand.

However, given the current low interest rate

environment, an increase in savings has little

impact on interest rates and is ineffective in

stimulating demand. More direct spending would

then be more effective in increasing euro area

production and job creation. It should be

emphasised that this is a time-variant conclusion

and depends on the state of the economy.

Graph 4.4.13:

NIIP and cumulative current account surplus

175

150

125

100

% of GDP

-25

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

NIIP

Cumulated current account

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

In sum, more domestic spending has positive

benefits for the Netherlands and the EU.

The

persistent and large national savings surplus may

be to some extent a symptom of pro-cyclical

institutions shaping household saving and

investment behaviour. Over a longer period of

time, it may be of little benefit (shown by the

differences between the cumulated annual

surpluses and the NIIP). More domestic

investment may lead to positive spillovers to other

euro area countries and, endogenously, to more

economic growth in the euro area and the

Netherlands.

Graph 4.4.14:

Euro area output and aggregate demand

10200

10000

Constant 2010 EUR mn

9800

9600

9400

9200

9000

Trade balance

Agg. Demand

GDP

Source:

European Commission (Eurostat)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.4. Investment

Box 4.4.1:

Investment challenges and reforms in the Netherlands

Section 1. Macroeconomic perspective

In 2016, the investment rate returned to the long-term average level of 20 % of GDP. In particular

residential investment experienced boom-bust episodes during the crisis, with a sharp drop related

to the housing market slump and an equally sharp recovery from 2014 onwards. Looking ahead,

private investment is expected to continue to grow, albeit at more sustainable lower rates.

Investment in intangible assets accounts for some 10 % of total business gross fixed capital

formation, which is in line with the EU average but below levels in the US, the UK and the Nordic

countries. Public investment peaked at 4.3 % of GDP in 2009, declined to 3.5 % in 2016 and is

expected to remain roughly stable over the coming years, according to the European Commission

Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast. Public and private expenditure on R&D remains well below the

overall 2.5 % of GDP target and it is low compared to the top performers, despite increased public

R&D funding in the new Coalition Agreement.

Section 2. Assessment of barriers to investment and ongoing reforms

Regulatory/administrative burden

Public administration

Public

administration/

Public procurement/PPPs

Business

Judicial system

environment

Insolvency framework

Competition and regulatory framework

Labour

market/

Education

Legend:

EPL & framework for labour contracts

Wages & wage setting

Education

Financial

Sector /

Taxation

R&D&I

Taxation

Access to finance

Cooperation of academia, research and business

Financing of R&D&I

Business services/regulated professions

Retail

CSR

Sector

specific

regulation

Construction

Digital economy/telecom

Energy

Transport

No barriers to investment identified

CSR

Investment barriers that are also subject to a CSR

No progress

Limited progress

Some progress

Substantial progress

Fully addressed

Main barriers to investment and priority actions underway

Overall, the Netherlands faces relatively few regulatory barriers to investment, as confirmed by the

European Commission assessment (see EC, 2015). The new government's fiscal plans contain a

substantial investment in R&D (see Section 4.5.2). Certain sectoral regulations may create

obstacles to investment, e.g. procedures to obtain building permits are lengthy, although World

Bank Doing Business indicators point to a slight improvement compared to last year (in relative

terms). Nevertheless, the Netherlands still ranks relatively low (76th compared to 87th in 2016),

which is largely explained by the time it takes to obtain the building permit. The Netherlands has

introduced all administrative procedures to support investment in renewable energy (see EC,

2017i), lowering barriers to investment in this sector. However, despite additional measures as

well as a new 'energy transition finance facility' that opened in July 2017, the Netherlands is

expected to miss its renewable energy target for 2020.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. SECTORAL POLICIES

4.5.1. PRODUCTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS,

INNOVATION AND COMPETITION

The post-crisis recovery in productivity growth

is mostly driven by total factor productivity

(TFP) growth.

The Dutch economy is one of the

most productive of the world with an income per

capita 20 % above the EU average. Since the

1970s, productivity growth has slowed down

considerably from an average 5 % per year to

barely 1 % over the last years. The recent modest

recovery in GDP growth is mostly down to TFP

growth, which has been the only sustained source

of productivity growth in recent years (see Graph

4.5.1).

Graph 4.5.1:

Contributions to changes in growth of real

value added

manufacturing and low in services. Post-crisis

productivity growth was also relatively high in

manufacturing, trade and transport sectors (see

Graph 4.5.2).

Table 4.5.1:

Total productivity growth, 1995-2015 (%)

Total

18.3

16.9

-0.9

22.7

15.9

Shift-share decomposition

Structural

Within

Dynamic shift

1.9

18.9

-2.9

0.6

17.8

-1.9

2.0

-1.4

-1.5

-1.8

26.7

-1.9

2.0

16.5

-2.6

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Euro area

Source:

European Commission, AMECO database and own

calculations

Graph 4.5.2:

Productivity development by sector

3.0

average growth per year 2010-2015

growth (%)

2.5

M-N

2.0

1.5

1.0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Hours

non-ICT capital

Labor composition

TFP

ICT capital

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

120

Productivity level 2015 (euro per hour)

Source:

European Commission, EU KLEMS database

The main contributions to aggregate

productivity growth come from developments

within sectors.

A shift-share analysis of

productivity growth shows that changes in the

sectoral structure had a negative - albeit minor -

effect on aggregate productivity growth while the

bulk of the productivity growth was due to

productivity developments within sectors (see

Table 4.5.1).

Whereas ICT, energy and the financial sector

experienced the fastest productivity growth

before the crisis; productivity growth has been

driven mostly by the real estate, construction

and trade-related sectors after the crisis.

Productivity levels are traditionally high in

Sector codes are: A Agriculture, C Manufacturing, D-E

Electricity, gas, F Construction, G Wholesale and retail trade,

H Transportation, I Accommodation and food, J Information,

K Financial, M-N Professional activities, O Public

administration, P Education, Q Health, R Arts, S Other

services.

Source:

European Commission (EU KLEMS)

A recent study, focussing on Dutch firm level

data shows relatively small differences between

sectors and finds no evidence for a lack of

technology diffusion.

The detailed analysis of

firm-level productivity growth before, during and

after the crisis in a recent CPB study - based on

for 53 sectors for the period 2006-2015 - shows

strikingly similar patterns in all sectors between

so-called leading firms at the 'productivity frontier'

and lagging firms (see Van Heuvelen, Bettendorf

and Meijerink, 2018, forthcoming). Leading firms

and lagging firms are found to be subject to a

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4.5. Sectoral policies

decline of productivity growth during the crisis,

with the strongest decline for frontier firms in the

services sector, while revealing increasing

differences in the productivity increase during the

recovery (see Graph 4.5.3). These findings allow

the authors to conclude that the observed

productivity slowdown is not due to changes in

transmission mechanisms (technology diffusion

from leading frontier firms to other firms in the

sector such that successful technologies employed

by the frontier firms are transmitted to the other

firms in the economy). The study also shows that

there is substantial mobility of firms with regard to

their relative position to the national productivity

frontier (only some 10 % of the firms remain at the

national productivity frontier over a period of 5

years). A significant share of firms is found to

change positions over time, including among those

classified as either leading or lagging firms.

Graph 4.5.3:

Productivity growth by firm productivity level

(leaders/laggards)

20%

16%

12%

-4%

-8%

-12%

manufacturing (top 10%)

manufacturing (laggards)

services (top 10%)

services (laggards)

housing would reduce skill shortages at regional

level and further increase labour productivity

(OECD, 2017a,c).

Construction sector

The level of labour productivity in the Dutch

construction

sector

low,

reflecting

fragmentation, slow digitisation and skill

shortages.

Contrary to developments in

neighbouring countries, the contribution of both

ICT capital and TFP to labour productivity growth

in the Dutch construction sector has been negative

since the crisis. This may, amongst others, be

linked to subdued investment in technologies, slow

digitisation of the construction value chain, under-

use of ICT skills, an ageing workforce and

shortages of skilled labour. Supporting innovation

and the scaling up in particular of micro-

companies and the self-employed without

employees, who account for more than 85 % of

firms in the Dutch construction sector (EU

average: 57 %), could reduce fragmentation of the

sector, speed up digitisation, improve its

attractiveness for younger workers(

) in particular

and promote participation in larger, cross-border

construction value chains (EC, 2017a).

Specific sectoral regulations and payment

delays may hamper productivity in the

construction sector.

Although the Netherlands

faces relatively few regulatory barriers to

investment and business development in general

(see Box 4.4.1), barriers do remain e.g. linked to

planning and permit procedures for construction

investment. Apart from a horizontal authorisation

scheme on hoisting, the Netherlands imposes fully-

fledged building permits without simpler

procedural alternatives. Moreover, while the

Netherlands has good public administration-to-

business payment relations, payment delays in

B2B relations increased significantly in 2016:

41 % of construction companies experience late

payments, and over a fifth of construction SMEs

working as sub-contractors are not paid at all by

the main contractor (EC, 2016b).

(

) Slow digitisation and comparatively low entry level

salaries for apprentices contribute to a low attractiveness of

the sector and an ageing workforce.

Source:

European Commission based on Van Heuvelen et al

(2018, forthcoming)

Further reducing on-the-job skill mismatches

and putting skills to better use can increase

productivity.

Based on data from the Programme

for the International Assessment of Adult

Competencies (PIAAC) survey, the actual use of

numeracy and IT skills on the job is much lower

than the proficiency of the workforce; there are

also significant numbers of over-skilled workers in

the lower wage quintiles in particular. Reducing

the skills mismatch to OECD best practice could

increase productivity by up to 3 % (OECD, 2015,

2017b). Addressing shortages and restrictions in

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4.5. Sectoral policies

4.5.2. RESEARCH AND INNOVATION

which is more than intramural R&D intensity of

1.16 %(

Graph 4.5.4:

R&D intensity in manufacturing

% manufacturing GVA

According to worldwide rankings, the

Netherlands has a strong innovation capacity

thanks to a productive R&D sector, competitive

business environment and solid framework

conditions in general.

The country ranks highly in

all main composite indexes: World Economic

Forum Global Competitiveness Index (4th);

European Innovation Scoreboard (4th); Global

Innovation Index (3rd); Digital Economy and

Society Index (4th).

Fostering higher business sector investment in

R&D has the potential to increase productivity

growth, in particular in the manufacturing

sector.

Productivity growth is driven by many

factors — from investment in ICT and non-ICT

capital, integration and diffusion of new

technology, complementary investment in other

intangibles and training the workforce to maximise

their positive contribution, through to well-

functioning institutions and markets (Grabska et

al., 2017). Advanced economies like the

Netherlands have limited potential to increase

productivity by catching up with leaders’

processes. Instead, fully exploiting the benefits of

digitisation and innovation by making investments

in R&D and other intangible assets is essential for

increased productivity. Business R&D intensity

(1.16 %) remains low compared to peers and grew

slowly in recent years (2011-2016), while nominal

R&D investment (in EUR) grew by 17 % in the

same period. Although relatively low investments

in R&D in part reflect the economic structure of

the Netherlands, which has a strong specialisation

in services and other sectors with a low formal

R&D component, R&D in manufacturing is also

relatively low (see Graph 4.5.4). Nevertheless, this

low level may be partly explained by R&D

activities in other countries by large Dutch firms.

The Netherlands has a high number of large

multinationals whose R&D activities are located in

other countries. For instance, the 2017 EU

Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard places 38

Dutch companies among the top 2 500 R&D

investors in the world(

). These companies alone

make up 1.3 % of GDP in R&D investments,

(

) http://iri.jrc.ec.europa.eu/scoreboard17.html.

SE DK FR FI US AT DE NL SI UK IT HUES CZ LU PT EE LV SK

Source:

European Commission, EU KLEMS database

The dynamics of entrepreneurial activities and

innovative business growth appear relatively

good.

Both the share of employment in

knowledge-intensive activities (17.5 %), and the

share of employment in fast growing SMEs in

innovative sectors (5.5 %) are relatively high. Also

the share of the population engaged in early-stage

entrepreneurial activity is relatively high (11% of

total population aged 25-64, GEM, 2017).

Public support to research and innovation is

well established.

Total public support to research

and innovation reaches EUR 6.5 billion, which

include EUR 1.2 billion of indirect fiscal support

through the WBSO scheme. The clarity of the R&I

support system coupled with regular monitoring

and evaluations is a strong point. In the coalition

agreement, the government announced that by

2020, an extra EUR 400 million will be

structurally spent on research, of which

EUR 200 million for applied research and

innovation. In 2018 and 2019 an incidental

investment of EUR 50 million will be made in

research infrastructure. Moreover, the government

announced to invest EUR 2.5 billion in a new

finance and development organisation called

(

) The figure excludes Airbus, a company with headquarters

in the Netherlands but with relatively little industrial

activity in the country. Including this company, total

investment of these top companies amounts to 1.8 % of

GDP.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Sectoral policies

Invest-NL. This should lead to more venture

capital for innovative start-ups and scale-ups.

Invest-NL will also try to attract public and private

capital from other funds, such as the EFSI-fund

and the EIB. Most existing risk financing and

venture capital funding, such as the SEED capital

scheme, will be grouped together within this

facility.

The public R&D intensity has gradually risen to

0.88 % of GDP in 2016, which approaches the

average level of most advanced EU peers (1 %).

In 2015, total budget for R&D amounted to 0.73 %

of GDP, a relatively high level in the EU, but

lower compared to most advanced EU peers. For

the period 2018-2021, total government budget

outlays for R&D is forecast to decline from 0.67 %

to 0.63 % of GDP (not counting the extra

expenditure on research and innovation announced

in the coalition agreement), mostly due to nominal

GDP growth, the denominator (see Vennekens and

Van Steen, 2017). Dutch stakeholders and advising

bodies suggest, in several issued opinions and

analyses, that extra investments would be

necessary in the coming years. Particular concerns

remain regarding maintaining the knowledge

capacity of the technological institutes over the

long term. Over the period 2010-2021, public

funding for institutions that are focused on applied

research, essentially the TO2 institutes, would

decrease by 21 %. Upon request of the

government, the Dutch research council issued an

opinion on how to orient the policy for applied

research (AWTI, 2017). The council notably

advised

increase

investment

EUR 330 million per year to support the research

capacity of public research organisations. Research

infrastructures would also require public

investments in the coming years (Strategic Agenda

TO2, 2017).

Collaboration between business and knowledge

institutions may prove to be an effective way to

increase innovation.

The Netherlands innovation

ecosystem can build on its higher education and

public research systems. The science base is very

good with 14.3 % of scientific publications among

the 10 % most cited worldwide, amongst the

highest performers in the EU. The openness and

quality of public research is also reflected in the

high proportion of international scientific

publications and the internationalisation of

research staff (a third of the scientific personnel is

foreign; 45 % of PhDs). A recent evaluation of the

top sector policy, the Government's industry

policy, concluded that the approach has

successfully strengthened collaborations between

public and private actors through now well-

established governance (Bongers et al., 2017). It

however highlighted that public authorities may

need to adopt a clearer and stronger role, in

particular taking up more responsibility in defining

innovation objectives, as this would give more

directions to the potential collaboration, especially

for solving societal challenges.

4.5.3. PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

The Netherlands has performed satisfactorily

on public procurement.

Its performance is

excellent on the use of e-procurement, favouring

competition among bidders, decision speed and the

use of strategic procurement. The Netherlands is

also one of the most experienced Member States in

terms of using pre-commercial procurement. The

public procurement expertise centre PIANOo is

key to the capacity building of public procurers

and fostering innovation procurement (see Box

4.5.1).

The amendment of the 2012 Public

Procurement Act also provided greater legal

certainty and opportunities for SMEs.

The

amendment includes: the prohibition on minimum

turnover requirements, the requirement to justify

bundling of contracts, the promotion of splitting

contracts into lots and a lower administrative

burden to take part in the tender. Since January

2017, there is further an obligation for all national

government suppliers to use e-invoicing.

Nevertheless, a number of practical obstacles make

it difficult for SMEs to participate in public

procurement,

such

large

contracts,

disproportionate

unclear

eligibility

requirements, high administrative costs, long-term

framework contracts and a lack of procurement

expertise. The number of tenders published

according to EU rules is below the EU average

(representing 2.2 % of GDP compared to 4.4 % of

GDP in the EU), and reporting quality is generally

poor, with 75 % of bids published EU-wide

without tender value (EC, 2017k).

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Sectoral policies

Box 4.5.1:

Policy highlight: Public procurement expertise centre in the Netherlands

PIANOo (Professioneel en Innovatief Aanbesteden, Netwerk voor Overheidsopdrachtgevers)(

) is

the public procurement expertise centre of the Netherlands, linked to the Ministry of Economic

Affairs. PIANOo's aim is to improve the government's procurement processes and compliance

with (EU) procurement rules in the Netherlands. It further aims at increasing the procurement of

innovative solutions in the Netherlands. The main task of the centre is to provide information and

give advice to government organisations on purchasing and tendering services and equipment.

PIANOo offers access to tools and model documents on their website, organises meetings,

provides for an online forum, publishes topical documents and organises tendering law courses.

PIANOo's expertise is built up through a large network of around 3 500 public procurement

professionals and contracting authorities. The centre brings together experts in specific areas and

fosters dialogue between government contracting authorities and private sector companies.

One information tool provided by PIANOo is a web-based 'Innovatiekoffer'(

) ("innovation

suitcase") to help contracting authorities with innovation-focused procurement. The tool describes

various instruments, e.g. demand analysis, risk management, market consultation and innovation

partnership. The tool also encompasses trajectories, which describe how to combine different

instruments, and specific cases of innovative projects.

(

) www.pianoo.nl/

(

) www.innovatiekoffer.nl/

In 2005, the Netherlands introduced the Small

Business Innovation Research Programme

(SBIR) to encourage companies to develop new

innovative products and services to meet the

demand of public authorities.

It consists of a

two-stage competition in which companies with

the best proposals carry out a feasibility study. The

programme then finances the development of their

innovative solutions, so that public entities may be

able to buy these new products in the future. An

evaluation of the SBIR instrument has been carried

out at the request of the Ministry of Economic

Affairs which showed that the SBIR instrument

has social added value (Bongers et al., 2017).

The new government programme specifically

indicates that public procurement should be

used more strategically, with particular

emphasis on innovation procurement and wider

use of the SBIR instrument.

The Netherlands

continues to pursue ambitious quantitative and

qualitative innovation procurement targets,

including a target of 2.5 % of total procurement for

central public administration to spend on

innovation. Moreover, the Ministry of the Interior

manages the ‘Smarter Network’ (Slimmer

netwerk),

which involves around 4 000 innovation

officials and advisers within the government,

provinces, municipalities, water authorities and

police (OECD, 2017e). Examples such as the

Erasmus University Medical Centre highlight the

potential positive impacts of innovation

procurement (OECD, 2016).

The Netherlands is a global front runner in

circular procurement, with pilot projects

developed to promote the uptake of the

‘circular economy’ (where products are

designed to be energy-efficient, long-lasting and

recycled as much as possible) in public

procurement.

Most circular procurement projects

are carried out as part of either the ‘Green Deal:

Circular Procurement’ agreement or the REBUS

(Resource Efficient Business Models) project.

Both of these initiatives aim to develop tools and

practical examples for circular procurement.

However, there are still a number of barriers to

promoting innovation in the circular economy;

these require better awareness of the fact that

transitioning to a circular economy needs different

forms of innovation: technological, financial

(business cases), organisational (working methods)

and social (focused on cooperation and teamwork)

(SER, 2017).

4.5.4. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY

The government plans to draft a national

climate and energy agreement outlining the

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

4.5. Sectoral policies

national strategy to meet its 2030 objectives.

The agreement is to be drawn up in cooperation

with local and regional authorities as well as

stakeholders. Measures from this agreement will

be incorporated into national climate law. The

government's ambitions include closing of all coal-

fired power plants by 2030, selling only zero

emission cars by 2030, reducing emissions from

housing and buildings through a combination of

energy efficiency and sustainable power and

heating, and allotting additional areas for off-shore

wind farms. Compensating measures for closing

coal-fired power plants have not been announced.

Natural gas production will be further

decreased.

As a result of production ceilings set

for the Groningen field (due to earthquakes) and

lower production levels at other small gas fields

following natural depletion, gas production will be

further reduced in the coming years. According to

the International Energy Agency, the Netherlands

is expected to become a net importer of gas by

2025.

The Netherlands is the only Member State that

did not reach its 2013/2014 indicative renewable

energy sources (RES) trajectory of 5.9 % of

gross final energy consumption.

With a 5.84 %

renewable energy share in gross final energy

consumption in 2015, the Netherlands is also

expected to miss its 2015-2016 indicative RES

trajectory of 7.6 %. While the National Energy

Outlook 2017 projects acceleration in the increase

of the renewable energy share towards 2020, it is

unlikely that the Netherlands will be able to fully

deliver by 2020. The government has announced

some additional measures as it plans to increase

funds in the support scheme for renewable

energies

(Stimulering

Duurzame

Energieproductie)

towards EUR 3.2.billion per

year. The national target of 16 % renewable energy

in 2023 agreed upon in the National Energy

Agreement is expected to be met. Although the

Dutch government adopted an 'Energy Agenda'

providing strategic guidance for a low-carbon

energy system for 2050, it has not adopted an

explicit RES target for 2030. Given the slight

increases in energy consumption, energy efficiency

efforts need to be kept up to ensure the 2020

targets will be met.

The coalition agreement includes the further

development of a national circular economy

programme aimed at supporting the national

climate policy and the natural resources

agreement.

Although among the highest of the

EU, the waste recovery rate is rather low vis-à-vis

neighbouring countries, while the physical waste

intensity (i.e. the waste intensity in terms of

Domestic Materials Consumption) is relatively

high and increasing faster than EU average. The

Netherlands scores relatively low (16

) in the 2016

Eco-Innovation Index(

), which points to the need

to improve the circular economy programme.

Nevertheless, the performance as regards the

development of environmental technologies and

the diffusion of these technologies seems to be not

too far from the EU average in 2016. The agendas

sent to parliament in January 2018 include a focus

on monitoring progress in the transition to a

circular economy and the scale up of successful

pilot projects and other initiatives.

The

Dutch

government

will

use

“modernisation of the tax system” to deliver on

its pledge to green and decarbonise the

country’s economy.

A fiscal annex to the new

Dutch government programme, which includes a

pledge to cut carbon emissions by 49 % from 1990

levels by 2030, outlines initiatives to offset

reductions in income tax with increased taxation in

the fields of energy, environment and

consumption. The government also aims to

introduce a minimum price for CO

from

electricity generation — a carbon price floor —

starting at EUR 18 in 2020 and rising to EUR 43

by 2030 to supplement the price signal from the

EU ETS. Companies in the sector would be

charged an additional levy based on the price

difference between the EU allowances and the

price floor. In order to better reflect CO

emissions, a rebalancing of the energy tax for

consumers will see gas costs increase by EUR 0.03

per cubic metre, while tax on electricity will

decrease by EUR 0.0072 per kilowatt hour. The

Netherlands is among the Member States, which

give an incentive for the use of electric vehicles in

order to improve local air quality by applying

lower excise duties for electricity supplied to

charging stations. For the time being, air pollution

continues to give rise to serious human health

concerns (European Environment Agency,

2017, pp.57-58).

(

)

https://ec.europa.eu/environment/ecoap/scoreboard

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ANNEX A: OVERVIEW TABLE

Commitments

2017 country-specific recommendations (CSRs)

Summary assessment (

)

CSR 1:

While respecting the medium-term objective, The Netherlands has made

some progress

use fiscal and structural policies to support potential addressing CSR 1(

growth and domestic demand, including investment

in research and development. Take measures to

reduce the remaining distortions in the housing

market and the debt bias for households, in particular

by decreasing mortgage interest tax deductibility.

While respecting the medium-term objective, use

Substantial progress.

The government has taken

fiscal and structural policies to support potential fiscal measures that support domestic demand, in

growth and domestic demand,

particular increasing expenditure on security and on

teachers' salaries.

including investment in research and development.

Some progress.

From 2018 onwards, the

government increases expenditure on research and

development.

Take measures to reduce the remaining distortions in

Some progress.

The government has announced to

the housing market and the debt bias for households, accelerate the reduction of mortgage interest tax

in particular by decreasing mortgage interest tax deductibility from 2020 onwards until it reaches 37

deductibility.

% in 2023, which is still relatively high. For the

rental market, the government has created a

roundtable on the middle segment rental market

(Samenwerkingstafel

Middenhuur)

bring

stakeholders together to discuss challenges and

solutions in the rental market. The roundtable will

(

) The following categories are used to assess progress in implementing the country-specific recommendations (CSRs):

No progress: The Member State has not credibly announced nor adopted any measures to address the CSR. This category covers a

number of typical situations to be interpreted on a case by case basis taking into account country-specific conditions. They

include the following:

no legal, administrative, or budgetary measures have been announced

in the national reform programme,

in any other official communication to the national Parliament/relevant parliamentary committees or the European Commission,

publicly (e.g. in a press statement or on the government's website);

no non-legislative acts have been presented by the governing or legislative body;

the Member State has taken initial steps in addressing the CSR, such as commissioning a study or setting up a study group to

analyse possible measures to be taken (unless the CSR explicitly asks for orientations or exploratory actions). However, it has

not proposed any clearly-specified measure(s) to address the CSR.

Limited progress: The Member State has:

announced certain measures but these address the CSR only to a limited extent; and/or

presented legislative acts in the governing or legislative body but these have not been adopted yet and substantial further, non-

legislative work is needed before the CSR is implemented;

presented non-legislative acts, but has not followed these up with the implementation needed to address the CSR.

Some progress: The Member State has adopted measures

that partly address the CSR; and/or

that address the CSR, but a fair amount of work is still needed to fully address the CSR fully as only a few of the measures have

been implemented. For instance, a measure or measures have been adopted by the national Parliament or by ministerial decision

but no implementing decisions are in place.

Substantial progress: The Member State has adopted measures that go a long way towards addressing the CSR and most of them

have been implemented.

Full implementation: The Member State has implemented all measures needed to address the CSR appropriately.

(

) This overall assessment of CSR1 does not include an assessment of compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

A. Overview table

issue recommendations on how to stimulate the

middle segment of the rental market. Furthermore,

the Law on Spatial Planning was amended in 2017,

allowing municipalities to set aside zones

specifically for building middle segment rental

dwellings. Other remaining distortions in the social

housing sector have not been addressed.

CSR 2:

Tackle remaining barriers to hiring staff on The Netherlands has made

limited progress

permanent contracts. Address the high increase in the addressing CSR 2:

self-employed without employees, including by

reducing tax distortions favouring self-employment,

without compromising entrepreneurship, and by

promoting access of the self-employed to affordable

social protection. Based on the broad preparatory

process already launched, make the second pillar of

the pension system more transparent, inter-

generationally fairer and more resilient to shocks.

Create conditions to promote higher real wage

growth, respecting the role of the social partners.

Tackle remaining barriers to hiring staff on

Limited progress.

The government has announced

permanent contracts.

several additional measures and ideas/intentions for

further reflection on segmentation, but no legislative

measures have been presented yet.

Address the high increase in the self-employed

Limited progress.

The government has announced

without employees, including by reducing tax the introduction of a minimum hourly rate for the

distortions favouring self-employment, without self-employed and ideas for further reflection, but no

compromising entrepreneurship, and by promoting legislative measures have yet been presented. The

access of the self-employed to affordable social announced reduction of tax brackets from four to two

protection.

may reduce the maximum rate of specific tax

deductions for some self-employed not operating at

the margin of the labour market in a phased manner.

No specific measures have been announced on the

social security coverage of the self-employed.

Based on the broad preparatory process already

No progress.

The government has confirmed its

launched, make the second pillar of the pension intention to reform the second pillar of the pension

system more transparent, inter-generationally fairer system, but no measures have been announced so far.

and more resilient to shocks.

Create conditions to promote higher real wage

Limited

progress.

The

government

has

growth, respecting the role of the social partners.

acknowledged the need for higher real wage growth.

The announced new fiscal measures will reduce the

tax burden on labour income. In addition, the

coalition agreement includes an increase in

expenditure on teachers' salaries. In general, wage

setting is the competence of the social partners and

recent wage demands (and those already agreed for

certain sectors) are substantially higher for 2017 and

2018. A tightening of the labour market is expected

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

A. Overview table

to push up real wage growth.

Europe 2020 (national targets and progress)

Employment rate target set in the 2016 NRP: 80 %. Labour market participation stood at 81.6 % in Q2-

2017 and employment at 77.1 % in 2017Q2. The

Netherlands is on target to reach this goal.

R&D target: 2.5 % of GDP.

In 2016, total R&D expenditure amounted to 2.03%

of GDP. The average yearly growth rate of 1.0%

since 2012 would need to increase substantially to

over 5 % to reach the target by 2020.



National greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target: According to national projections, the Netherlands is

expected to overachieve its greenhouse gas reduction



-16 % in 2020 compared to 2005 (in sectors not target 2020 target under the Effort Sharing

Regulation of -16 % by 10 pp compared to 2005.

covered by the EU emission trading scheme).



Non-ETS 2016 target: -9 %.

The intermediate -9 % target for 2016 has been

overachieved by 11 %.

2020 renewable energy target:

With a 5.84 % renewable energy share in gross final

energy consumption in 2015, the Netherlands is



Energy from renewable sources is 14 % of gross expected to miss its 2015-2016 indicative RES

trajectory of 7.6 %. It is unlikely that the Netherlands

final energy consumption by 2020.

will fully deliver on the 2020 target without

additional effort.



The 2015-2016 interim target is 7.6 %.

Energy efficiency target: 11.5 Mtoe of cumulative Primary energy consumption increased from 64.59

savings in final energy consumption in 2014-2020. Mtoe in 2015 to 64.8 Mtoe in 2016. Final energy

This translates into:

consumption remained stable at 49.5 Mtoe during

2015 and 2016.



60.7 Mtoe in primary energy consumption, and

Given the slight increases in energy consumption,

efforts need to be kept up to ensure the 2020 targets



52.2 Mtoe in final energy consumption.

will be met.

Early school leaving (ESL) target: <8.0 %.

The ESL rate has been falling for years, and the

national target has already been achieved in 2016

with an 8 % rate.

The rate was 45.7 % in 2016, which is well above the

national target and the EU average of 39.1 %.

Tertiary education target: >40 %.

Target for reducing the number of people living in Starting in 2010 with 1 595 000 people belonging to

households with very low work intensity in number this group the number has increased to 1 653 000 in

of people: - 100 000 (aged 0-64).

2015, and remained stable in 2016. Thus, the target is

not in reach.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ANNEX B: MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE

SCOREBOARD

Table B.1:

The MIP scoreboard for the Netherlands (AMR 2018)

Thresholds

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Current account balance, % of GDP

3 year average

-4%/6%

7.1

8.7

9.6

9.0

8.8

External imbalances and competitiveness

Net international investment position

% of GDP

-35%

20.4

27.0

31.0

48.7

55.1

69.1

Real effective exchange rate - 42 trading

partners, HICP deflator

3 year % change

±5% (EA)

±11% (Non-EA)

-2.4

-6.0

0.5

0.7

-0.8

-2.3

Export market share - % of world exports

5 year % change

-6%

-8.2

-12.4

-11.0

-6.4

0.1

Nominal unit labour cost index

(2010=100)

3 year % change

9% (EA)

12% (Non-EA)

4.8

2.3

5.2

4.2

-0.4p

-1.1p

House price index (2015=100), deflated

1 year % change

-4.0

-8.1

-8.2

0.0

3.4

4.4

Private sector credit flow, consolidated

% of GDP

14%

4.2

2.0

1.5

-1.8

-0.8p

1.5p

Internal imbalances

Private sector debt, consolidated

% of GDP

133%

225.0

225.9

223.4

225.7

225.1

221.5p

General government gross debt

% of GDP

60%

61.6

66.3

67.8

68.0

64.6

61.8

Unemployment rate

3 year average

10%

4.8

5.3

6.0

6.8

7.2

6.8

Total financial sector liabilities, non-

consolidated

1 year % change

16.5%

9.0

5.0

-1.1

7.7

3.6

5.3p

Employment indicators

Activity rate - % of total population aged

15-64

3 year change in pp

-0.2 pp

-1.2b

-0.7

1.2b

0.9b

0.6

0.3

Long-term unemployment rate - % of

active population aged 15-74

3 year change in pp

0.5 pp

0.7b

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.0

Youth unemployment rate - % of active

population aged 15-24

3 year change in pp

2 pp

1.4

1.5

2.1

2.7

-0.4

-2.4

Flags: b: Break in series. p: Provisional.

(1) This table provides data as published under the Alert Mechanism Report 2018, which reports data as of 24 Oct 2017.

Please note that figures reported in this table may therefore differ from more recent data elsewhere in this document.

Source:

European Commission 2017, Statistical Annex to the Alert Mechanism Report 2018, SWD(2017) 661.

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

ANNEX C: STANDARD TABLES

Table C.1:

Financial market indicators

(1)

Total assets of the banking sector (% of GDP)

Share of assets of the five largest banks (% of total assets)

Foreign ownership of banking system (% of total assets)

(2)

Financial soundness indicators:

- non-performing loans (% of total loans)

(3)

- capital adequacy ratio (%)

(4)

- return on equity (%)

Bank loans to the private sector (year-on-year % change)

Lending for house purchase (year-on-year % change)

Loan to deposit ratio

Central Bank liquidity as % of liabilities

Private debt (% of GDP)

Gross external debt (% of GDP)

- public

- private

Long-term interest rate spread versus Bund (basis points)*

Credit default swap spreads for sovereign securities (5-year)*

(2)

(1)

2012

379.9

82.1

10.2

2.7

14.5

4.1

4.0

4.3

119.2

225.9

36.3

304.5

43.8

86.4

2013

336.6

83.8

7.5

2.7

15.3

5.0

-1.1

-0.1

117.8

223.4

38.4

320.5

39.2

49.0

2014

364.0

85.0

6.7

3.0

18.4

3.3

1.1

1.3

114.1

0.6

225.7

41.2

337.2

29.2

28.2

2015

355.6

84.6

7.2

2.4

20.6

7.0

-2.0

5.4

113.4

0.7

225.1

37.7

345.6

19.5

16.1

2016

350.9

84.7

6.9

2.2

22.4

7.3

0.5

3.4

110.6

0.8

221.5

32.1

343.6

20.3

23.4

2017

331.0

7.2

2.1

23.1

4.8

-1.0

7.1

108.2

1.4

28.1

343.5

21.0

17.9

1) Latest data Q3 2017. Includes not only banks but all monetary financial institutions excluding central banks.

2) Latest data Q2 2017.

3) As per ECB definition of gross non-performing debt instruments

4) Quarterly values are not annualised

* Measured in basis points.

Source:

European Commission (long-term interest rates); World Bank (gross external debt); Eurostat (private debt); ECB (all

other indicators)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.2:

Headline Social Scoreboard indicators

2012

Equal opportunities and access to the labour market

Early leavers from education and training

(% of population aged 18-24)

Gender employment gap (pps)

Income inequality, measured as quintile share ratio (S80/S20)

At-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate

(AROPE)

Young people neither in employment nor in education and

training (% of population aged 15-24)

Dynamic labour markets and fair working conditions

†

Employment rate (20-64 years)

Unemployment rate

(15-74 years)

Gross disposable income of households in real terms per capita

(Index 2008=100)

Public support / Social protection and inclusion

Impact of social transfers (excluding pensions) on poverty

reduction

Children aged less than 3 years in formal childcare

Self-reported unmet need for medical care

Individuals who have basic or above basic overall digital skills

(% of population aged 16-74)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

8.9

11.3

3.6

15.0

4.9

9.3

10.5

3.6

15.9

5.6

8.7

11.4

3.8

16.5

5.5

8.2

11.1

3.8

16.4

4.7

8.0

11.0

3.9

16.7

4.6

10.4

76.6

5.8

75.9

7.3

75.4

7.4

96.9

76.4

6.9

97.6

77.1

6.0

99.2

77.9

4.9

51.0

46.0

0.5

50.0

46.0

0.4

45.5

44.6

0.5

48.0

46.4

0.1

72.0

42.5

53.0

0.2

77.0

79.0

† The Social Scoreboard includes 14 headline indicators, of which 12 are currently used to compare Member States

performance. The indicators "participants in active labour market policies per 100 persons wanting to work" and

"compensation of employees per hour worked (in EUR)" are not used due to technical concerns by Member States. Possible

alternatives will be discussed in the relevant Committees.

(1) People at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE): individuals who are at risk of poverty (AROP) and/or suffering from

severe material deprivation (SMD) and/or living in households with zero or very low work intensity (LWI).

(2) Unemployed persons are all those who were not employed but had actively sought work and were ready to begin

working immediately or within two weeks.

(3) Gross disposable household income is defined in unadjusted terms, according to the draft Joint Employment Report 2018.

(4) Reduction in percentage of the risk of poverty rate, due to social transfers (calculated comparing at-risk-of poverty rates

before social transfers with those after transfers; pensions are not considered as social transfers in the calculation).

(5) Average of first three quarters of 2017 for the employment rate and gender employment gap.

Source:

Eurostat

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.3:

Labour market and education indicators

Labour market indicators

Activity rate (15-64)

Employment in current job by duration

From 0 to 11 months

From 12 to 23 months

From 24 to 59 months

60 months or over

Employment growth*

(% change from previous year)

Employment rate of women

(% of female population aged 20-64)

Employment rate of men

(% of male population aged 20-64)

Employment rate of older workers*

(% of population aged 55-64)

Part-time employment*

(% of total employment, aged 15-64)

Fixed-term employment*

(% of employees with a fixed term contract, aged 15-64)

Transition rate from temporary to permanent employment

(3-year average)

Long-term unemployment rate (% of labour force)

Youth unemployment rate

(% active population aged 15-24)

Gender gap in part-time employment

Gender pay gap (in undadjusted form)

Education and training indicators

Adult participation in learning

(% of people aged 25-64 participating in education and training)

Underachievement in education

Tertiary educational attainment (% of population aged 30-34 having

successfully completed tertiary education)

Variation in performance explained by students' socio-economic

status

2012

79.0

12.0

8.4

17.7

61.1

-0.2

71.0

82.3

57.6

49.0

19.2

19.1

1.9

11.7

52.4

17.6

2012

16.9

14.8

42.2

11.5

2013

79.4

11.5

8.2

16.0

63.0

-1.2

70.6

81.1

59.2

49.8

20.2

16.5

2.5

13.2

51.1

16.5

2013

17.9

43.2

2014

79.0

11.9

7.6

15.6

63.6

-0.1

69.7

81.1

59.9

49.6

21.1

16.2

2.9

12.7

50.6

16.1

2014

18.3

44.8

2015

79.6

13.0

7.7

14.8

63.0

0.9

70.8

81.9

61.7

50.0

20.0

22.5

3.0

11.3

50.4

16.1

2015

18.9

16.7

46.3

12.5

2016

79.7

13.9

8.4

14.4

61.8

1.1

71.6

82.6

63.5

49.7

20.6

2.5

10.8

50.2

2016

18.8

45.7

2017

2.1

72.7

83.1

65.4

49.8

21.7

2.0

8.9

49.0

2017

* Non-scoreboard indicator

(1) Long-term unemployed are people who have been unemployed for at least 12 months.

(2) Difference between the average gross hourly earnings of male paid employees and of female paid employees as a

percentage of average gross hourly earnings of male paid employees. It is defined as "unadjusted", as it does not correct for

the distribution of individual characteristics (and thus gives an overall picture of gender inequalities in terms of pay). All

employees working in firms with ten or more employees, without restrictions for age and hours worked, are included.

(3) PISA (OECD) results for low achievement in mathematics for 15 year-olds.

(4) Impact of socio-economic and cultural status on PISA (OECD) scores. Values for 2012 and 2015 refer respectively to

mathematics and science.

(5) Average of first three quarters of 2017, unless for the youth unemployment rate (annual figure).

Source:

Eurostat, OECD

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.4:

Social inclusion and health indicators

2012

2013

10.2

2.3

12.2

1.0

1.6

0.4

1.5

29.2

3.9

17.0

8.2

5.4

11.7

17.0

10.4

4.5

2.5

0.2

2.1

9.3

11215

2014

10.0

2.2

12.3

0.9

1.6

0.4

1.4

28.9

3.8

16.9

8.2

5.4

12.2

17.1

11.6

5.3

3.2

0.1

1.6

10.2

10962

2015

9.4

2.7

12.1

1.1

1.5

0.5

1.2

28.4

4.1

16.3

8.1

5.3

12.3

16.8

11.6

5.0

2.6

0.4

2.4

10.2

11136

2016

16.2

7.7

5.3

17.6

12.7

5.6

2.6

0.5

3.3

9.7

11865

2017

Expenditure on social protection benefits* (% of GDP)

Sickness/healthcare

Disability

Old age and survivors

Family/children

Unemployment

Housing

Social exclusion n.e.c.

Total

of which: means-tested benefits

General government expenditure by function (% of GDP, COFOG)

Social protection

Health

Education

Out-of-pocket expenditure on healthcare (% of total health expenditure)

Children at risk of poverty or social exclusion (% of people

aged 0-17)*

At-risk-of-poverty rate (% of total population)

In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate (% of persons employed)

Severe material deprivation rate (% of total population)

Severe housing deprivation rate , by tenure status

Owner, with mortgage or loan

Tenant, rent at market price

Proportion of people living in low work intensity households

(% of people aged 0-59)

Poverty thresholds, expressed in national currency at constant prices*

Healthy life years (at the age of 65)

Females

Males

Aggregate replacement ratio for pensions

(at the age of 65)

Connectivity dimension of the Digital Economy and Society Inedex

(DESI)

GINI coefficient before taxes and transfers*

GINI coefficient after taxes and transfers*

10.4

2.3

12.0

1.0

1.4

0.4

1.4

28.9

3.8

16.8

8.3

5.5

10.4

16.9

10.1

4.6

2.3

0.2

1.9

8.9

11378

10.1

10.0

0.5

46.5

25.4

9.2

9.5

0.5

46.4

25.1

10.2

10.7

0.5

71.6

48.0

26.2

9.4

10.5

0.5

73.7

49.0

26.7

0.5

80.1

49.8

28.2

81.7

(1) At-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP): proportion of people with an equivalised disposable income below 60 % of the national

equivalised median income.

(2) Proportion of people who experience at least four of the following forms of deprivation: not being able to afford to i) pay

their rent or utility bills, ii) keep their home adequately warm, iii) face unexpected expenses, iv) eat meat, fish or a protein

equivalent every second day, v) enjoy a week of holiday away from home once a year, vi) have a car, vii) have a washing

machine, viii) have a colour TV, or ix) have a telephone.

(3) Percentage of total population living in overcrowded dwellings and exhibiting housing deprivation.

(4) People living in households with very low work intensity: proportion of people aged 0-59 living in households where the

adults (excluding dependent children) worked less than 20 % of their total work-time potential in the previous 12 months.

(5) Ratio of the median individual gross pensions of people aged 65-74 relative to the median individual gross earnings of

people aged 50-59.

(6) Fixed broadband take up (33%), mobile broadband take up (22%), speed (33%) and affordability (11%), from the Digital

Scoreboard

Source:

Eurostat, OECD

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.5:

Product market performance and policy indicators

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Performance Indicators

Labour productivity (real, per person employed, year-on-year %

change)

Labour productivity in Industry

Labour productivity in Construction

Labour productivity in Market Services

Unit labour costs (ULC) (whole economy, year-on-year % change)

ULC in Industry

ULC in Construction

ULC in Market Services

Business Environment

Time needed to enforce contracts

(1)

(days)

Time needed to start a business

(1)

(days)

Outcome of applications by SMEs for bank loans

Research and innovation

R&D intensity

General government expenditure on education as % of GDP

Persons with tertiary education and/or employed in science and

technology as % of total employment

Population having completed tertiary education

(3)

Young people with upper secondary level education

Trade balance of high technology products as % of GDP

Product and service markets and competition

OECD product market regulation (PMR)

(5)

, overall

OECD PMR5, retail

OECD PMR5, professional services

(6)

OECD PMR5, network industries

(4)

(2)

6.95

-5.77

2.27

-10.89

9.67

-2.69

2010

514.0

8.0

1.43

2010

1.72

5.60

1.71

1.23

-0.04

1.33

1.61

-0.82

0.27

2011

514.0

8.0

1.25

2011

1.90

5.50

1.98

0.43

-4.78

0.55

2.63

7.82

1.78

2012

514.0

5.0

1.80

2012

1.94

5.50

2.86

1.50

-0.16

0.78

0.07

-2.36

1.05

2013

514.0

4.0

1.58

2013

1.95

5.40

2.26

-1.53

5.14

1.12

4.20

-7.98

-1.39

2014

514.0

4.0

1.64

2014

2.00

5.40

2.75

2003

1.49

1.47

1.57

2.06

-1.10

9.25

1.86

1.27

-10.34

-2.34

2015

514.0

4.0

1.30

2015

2.00

5.30

1.52

2008

0.96

0.91

1.28

1.71

0.47

7.34

-0.21

1.03

-5.34

0.72

2016

514.0

4.0

0.90

2016

2.03

5.30

2013

0.92

0.91

1.23

1.57

1 The methodologies, including the assumptions, for this indicator are shown in detail here:

http://www.doingbusiness.org/methodology.

2 Average of the answer to question Q7B_a. "[Bank loan]: If you applied and tried to negotiate for this type of financing over

the past six months, what was the outcome?". Answers were codified as follows: zero if received everything, one if received

most of it, two if only received a limited part of it, three if refused or rejected and treated as missing values if the application is

still pending or don't know.

3 Percentage population aged 15-64 having completed tertiary education.

4 Percentage population aged 20-24 having attained at least upper secondary education.

5 Index: 0 = not regulated; 6 = most regulated. The methodologies of the OECD product market regulation indicators are

shown in detail here: http://www.oecd.org/competition/reform/indicatorsofproductmarketregulationhomepage.htm

6 Aggregate OECD indicators of regulation in energy, transport and communications (ETCR).

Source:

European Commission; World Bank — Doing Business (for enforcing contracts and time to start a business); OECD (for

the product market regulation

indicators); SAFE (for outcome of SMEs' applications for bank loans)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

C. Standard tables

Table C.6:

Green growth

Green growth performance

Macroeconomic

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity

Resource intensity (reciprocal of resource productivity)

Waste intensity

Energy balance of trade

Weighting of energy in HICP

Difference between energy price change and inflation

Real unit of energy cost

Ratio of environmental taxes to labour taxes

Environmental taxes

Sectoral

Industry energy intensity

Real unit energy cost for manufacturing industry excl.

refining

Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy

Electricity prices for medium-sized industrial users

Gas prices for medium-sized industrial users

Public R&D for energy

Public R&D for environmental protection

Municipal waste recycling rate

Share of GHG emissions covered by ETS*

Transport energy intensity

Transport carbon intensity

Security of energy supply

Energy import dependency

Aggregated supplier concentration index

Diversification of energy mix

kgoe / €

kg / €

% GDP

% of value

added

ratio

% GDP

kgoe / €

% of value

added

% GDP

€ / kWh

% GDP

kgoe / €

kg / €

HHI

2011

0.13

0.31

0.29

-3.5

11.32

3.4

13.0

0.17

3.5

0.16

23.1

8.97

0.10

0.03

0.01

49.1

40.8

0.55

1.27

30.0

14.6

0.36

2012

0.13

0.31

0.29

0.19

-5.0

11.28

3.6

13.6

0.16

3.3

0.16

23.5

8.95

0.10

0.04

0.02

0.01

49.4

39.9

0.52

1.20

30.5

15.8

0.34

2013

0.13

0.31

0.27

-4.0

11.66

0.0

11.6

0.16

3.3

0.15

18.0

8.96

0.09

0.04

0.02

0.01

49.8

44.6

0.52

1.18

26.2

15.3

0.35

2014

0.12

0.29

0.27

0.21

-3.4

11.69

-1.5

11.1

0.16

3.4

0.15

17.2

8.43

0.09

0.04

0.01

0.00

50.9

47.6

0.48

1.07

33.4

17.0

0.33

2015

0.12

0.30

0.28

-1.8

9.77

-2.9

0.16

3.4

0.15

7.91

0.09

0.04

0.02

0.00

51.8

48.0

0.50

1.09

51.8

21.0

0.33

2016

0.12

0.24

-1.4

9.36

-5.6

3.4

0.16

7.64

0.08

0.03

0.02

0.00

53.1

47.8

0.50

45.2

0.33

All macro intensity indicators are expressed as a ratio of a physical quantity to GDP (in 2010 prices)

Energy intensity: gross inland energy consumption (in kgoe) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Carbon intensity: greenhouse gas emissions (in kg CO2 equivalents) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Resource intensity: domestic material consumption (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Waste intensity: waste (in kg) divided by GDP (in EUR)

Energy balance of trade: the balance of energy exports and imports, expressed as % of GDP

Weighting of energy in HICP: the proportion of 'energy' items in the consumption basket used for the construction of the HICP

Difference between energy price change and inflation: energy component of HICP, and total HICP inflation (annual %

change)

Real unit energy cost: real energy costs as % of total value added for the economy

Industry energy intensity: final energy consumption of industry (in kgoe) divided by gross value added of industry (in 2010 EUR)

Real unit energy costs for manufacturing industry excluding refining : real costs as % of value added for manufacturing

sectors

Share of energy-intensive industries in the economy: share of gross value added of the energy-intensive industries in GDP

Electricity and gas prices for medium-sized industrial users: consumption band 500–20 00MWh and 10 000–100 000 GJ; figures

excl. VAT.

Recycling rate of municipal waste: ratio of recycled and composted municipal waste to total municipal waste

Public R&D for energy or for the environment: government spending on R&D for these categories as % of GDP

Proportion of GHG emissions covered by EU emissions trading system (ETS) (excluding aviation): based on GHG emissions

(excl land use, land use change and forestry) as reported by Member States to the European Environment Agency.

Transport energy intensity: final energy consumption of transport activity (kgoe) divided by transport industry gross value

added (in 2010 EUR)

Transport carbon intensity: GHG emissions in transport activity divided by gross value added of the transport sector

Energy import dependency: net energy imports divided by gross inland energy consumption incl. consumption of

international bunker fuels

Aggregated supplier concentration index: covers oil, gas and coal. Smaller values indicate larger diversification and hence

lower risk.

Diversification of the energy mix: Herfindahl index covering natural gas, total petrol products, nuclear heat, renewable

energies and solid fuels

* European Commission and European Environment Agency

Source:

European Commission and European Environment Agency (Share of GHG emissions covered by ETS); European

Commission (Environmental taxes over labour taxes and GDP); Eurostat (all other indicators)

kom (2018) 0120 - Ingen titel

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