Europaudvalget 2025
KOM (2025) 0238
Offentligt
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EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
Brussels, 12.5.2025
COM(2025) 238 final
Recommendation for a
COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Bulgaria
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Recommendation for a
COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
endorsing the national medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Bulgaria
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and in particular
Article 121 thereof,
Having regard to Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, and in particular Article 17 thereof,
Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission,
Whereas:
GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
(1)
A reformed EU economic governance framework entered into force on 30 April 2024.
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the
effective coordination of economic policies and on multilateral budgetary
surveillance
1
, together with the amended Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on the
implementation of the excessive deficit procedure
2
, and the amended Council
Directive 2011/85/EU on the budgetary frameworks of Member States
3
are the core
elements of the reformed EU economic governance framework. The framework aims
at ensuring public debt sustainability and sustainable and inclusive growth through
reforms and investments. It promotes national ownership and has a medium-term
focus, combined with an effective and coherent enforcement of the rules.
The national medium-term fiscal-structural plans that Member States submit to the
Council and to the Commission are at the centre of the new economic governance
framework. The plans are to deliver on two objectives: i) ensuring that, by the end of
the adjustment period, general government debt is on a plausibly downward trajectory,
or stays at prudent levels, and that the government deficit is brought and maintained
below the reference value of 3% of GDP over the medium term, and ii) ensuring the
delivery of reforms and investments responding to the main challenges identified in
the context of the European Semester and addressing the common priorities of the EU.
(2)
1
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2024 on the
effective coordination of economic policies and on multilateral budgetary surveillance and repealing Council
Regulation
(EC)
No
1466/97
(OJ
L,
2024/1263,
30.4.2024,
ELI:
http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj).Regulation
(EU) 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the
Council of 29 April 2024 on the effective coordination of economic policies and on multilateral budgetary
surveillance and repealing Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 (OJ L, 2024/1263, 30.4.2024, ELI:
http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1263/oj).
2
Council Regulation (EU) 2024/1264 of 29 April 2024 amending Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 on
speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure (OJ L, 2024/1264, 30.4.2024,
ELI:
http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1264/oj
).
3
Council Directive (EU) 2024/1265 of 29 April 2024 amending Directive 2011/85/EU on requirements
for budgetary frameworks of the Member States (OJ L, 2024/1265, 30.4.2024, ELI:
http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2024/1265/oj
).
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To that end, each plan is to present a medium-term commitment to a net expenditure
4
path, which effectively establishes a budgetary constraint for the duration of the plan,
covering four or five years (depending on the regular term of legislature in a Member
State). In addition, the plan is to explain how the Member State will ensure the
delivery of reforms and investments responding to the main challenges identified in
the context of the European Semester, in particular in the country-specific
recommendations (including those pertaining to the macroeconomic imbalances
procedure (MIP), if applicable), and how the Member State will address the common
priorities of the Union. The period for fiscal adjustment covers a period of four years,
which may be extended by up to three years if the Member State commits to
delivering a set of relevant reforms and investments that satisfies the criteria set out in
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.
(3)
(4)
Following the submission of the plan, the Commission is to assess whether it complies
with the requirements of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.
Upon a recommendation from the Commission, the Council is to then adopt a
recommendation to set the net expenditure path of the Member State concerned and,
where applicable, endorses the set of reform and investment commitments
underpinning an extension of the fiscal adjustment period.
CONSIDERATIONS CONCERNING THE NATIONAL MEDIUM-TERM FISCAL-
STRUCTURAL PLAN OF BULGARIA
(5)
On 27 February 2025, Bulgaria submitted its national medium-term fiscal structural
plan to the Council and the Commission. The submission took place following two
extensions of the deadline set out in Article 36 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, as
agreed with the Commission in view of the reasons provided by Bulgaria, namely the
need to align the timing of submission with the political cycle, which would give
Bulgaria the possibility to present a plan based on a solid political commitment.
Prior to the submission of its plan, Bulgaria requested technical information
5
, which
the Commission provided on 24 January 2025, and published on 27 February 2025
6
.
The technical information indicates the level of the structural primary balance in 2028
Process prior to the submission of the plan
(6)
4
Net expenditure as defined in Article 2 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, namely government expenditure
net of (i) interest expenditure, (ii) discretionary revenue measures, (iii) expenditure on Union programmes fully
matched by revenue from Union funds, (iv) national expenditure on co-financing of programmes funded by the
Union, (v) cyclical elements of unemployment benefit expenditure and (vi) one-offs and other temporary
measures.
5
Prior guidance transmitted to the Member States and Economic and Financial Committee includes
technical information i) without and with an extension of the adjustment period (covering 4 and 7 years,
respectively), and ii) with and without the deficit resilience safeguard. It also includes the main initial conditions
and underlying assumptions used in the Commission’s medium-term government debt projection framework.
The technical information was calculated on the basis of the methodology described in the Commission’s
Debt
Sustainability Monitor 2023
(https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/debt-sustainability-monitor-
2023_en).
It is based on the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast and its medium-term extension up to
2033, and long-term GDP growth and ageing costs are in line with the joint Commission-Council
2024 Ageing
Report
(https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2024-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-
projections-eu-member-states-2022-2070_en).
6
https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-and-fiscal-governance/stability-and-growth-
pact/preventive-arm/national-medium-term-fiscal-structural-plans_en#bulgaria
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that is necessary to ensure that the general government deficit is maintained below 3%
of GDP over the medium term and that the general government debt remains below
60% of GDP over the medium term, even in the absence of further budgetary measures
beyond the 4-year adjustment period. The medium term is defined as the ten-year
period after the end of the adjustment period. The technical information was prepared
and transmitted to the Member States under two scenarios: a scenario including
consistency with the deficit resilience safeguard, in line with Article 9(3) of
Regulation (EU) 2024/126, and a scenario without this safeguard. The technical
information for Bulgaria sets out that, in order to comply with the applicable fiscal
rules over an adjustment period of 4 years, and based on the Commission’s
assumptions, the structural primary balance should amount to at least 2.1% of GDP at
the end of the adjustment period (2028) in the scenario without the deficit resilience
safeguard, as per the following table. For information, considering also the deficit
resilience safeguard, the structural primary balance would amount to at least 0.9% of
GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2028). However, the deficit resilience
safeguard is not a requirement for Bulgaria.
Table 1: Technical information provided by the Commission to Bulgaria
Final year of the adjustment period
Minimum value of the structural primary balance (% of GDP), scenario without the
deficit resilience safeguard
For information only:
Minimum value of the structural primary balance (% of GDP),
scenario with the deficit resilience safeguard
Source: Commission’s calculations.
2028
-2.1
-0.9
(7)
In line with Article 12 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, Bulgaria and the Commission
engaged in a technical dialogue from September to October 2024 and from January to
February 2025
7
. The dialogue centred on the net expenditure path envisaged by
Bulgaria and its underlying assumptions (in particular potential growth and inflation),
as well as the envisaged delivery of reforms and investments responding to the main
challenges identified in the context of the European Semester and the common
priorities of the Union in a fair green and digital transition, social and economic
resilience, energy security and the build-up of defence capabilities.
In February 2025, in line with Article 11(3) and 36(1), point (c), of Regulation (EU)
2024/1263, according to the information provided by Bulgaria in its plan, Bulgaria
engaged in a consultation process with civil society, social partners, regional
authorities and other relevant stakeholders. According to the information provided by
Bulgaria in its plan, the plan was consulted with a broad set of stakeholders, ranging
from social partners to representatives of civil society, academia, business
organisations and non-governmental organisations.
(8)
The dialogue was paused to align the timing of the submission of the plan with the political
cycle and give Bulgaria the possibility to present a plan based on a solid political commitment.
7
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(9)
The plan was adopted by Bulgaria’s Council of Ministers on 26 February 2025 and
sent to the National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria.
Other related processes
(10)
(11)
On 21 October 2024, the Council addressed to Bulgaria a series of country-specific
recommendations (CSRs) in the context of the European Semester
8
.
On 25 February 2025, Bulgaria submitted a request for a convergence assessment
under Article 140(1) TFEU with a view to possible entry in the euro area on 1 January
2026. The assessment by the Commission, published on 4 June 2025, also took into
account the public finance criterion.
On 02 May 2025, Bulgaria requested the activation of the national escape clause to
accommodate higher defence spending, in accordance with Article 26 (1) of
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 and following the Commission Communication
(C(2025)2000 final) of 19 March 2025.
(12)
SUMMARY OF THE PLAN AND THE COMMISSION’S ASSESSMENT OF
THEREOF
(13)
In line with Article 16 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, the Commission assessed the
plan as follows:
Context: macroeconomic and fiscal situation and outlook
(14)
Economic activity in Bulgaria grew by 2.8% in 2024, driven by private consumption.
According to the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, real GDP is set to
increase by 2.9% in 2025, as exports and public investment pick up. In 2026, real GDP
is expected to increase by 3%, as investment accelerates further, and other demand
components maintain stable growth rates. Over the forecast horizon (i.e., 2025-2026),
potential GDP growth in Bulgaria is expected to remain relatively strong, albeit on a
declining path, driven by strong investment, partially offset by adverse demographic
trends. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in 2024 and is projected by the
Commission to amount to 4% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. Inflation (GDP deflator) is
projected to decrease from 6.5% in 2024 to reach 2.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026.
Regarding fiscal developments, in 2024 Bulgaria’s general government deficit
amounted to 3% of GDP. According to the European Commission Autumn 2024
Forecast, it is expected to reach 2.8% of GDP in 2025 and, under a no-policy change
assumption, to remain at 2.8% in 2026. The European Commission Autumn 2024
Forecast did not include Bulgaria’s draft budget for 2025, which the National
Assembly adopted on 21 March 2025. General government debt was 24.1% of GDP at
end-2024. According to the European Commission Autumn 2024 Forecast, the debt
ratio is expected to decline to 23.1% of GDP at end-2025 and go back up to 24.5% at
end-2026. The fiscal forecast by the Commission does not consider the policy
(15)
8
Council Recommendation of 21 October 2024 on the economic, social, employment, structural and
budgetary policies of Bulgaria, OJ C C/2024/6809, 29.11.2024.
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commitments in the medium-term plans as such until they are underpinned by credibly
announced and sufficiently specified concrete policy measures.
Net expenditure path and main macroeconomic assumptions in the plan
(16)
(17)
(18)
Bulgaria’s national medium-term fiscal-structural plan covers the period 2025-2028
and presents a fiscal adjustment over four years.
The plan contains all information required by Article 13 of Regulation (EU)
2024/1263.
The plan commits to the net expenditure path indicated in Table 2, corresponding to
average net expenditure growth of 4.9% over the years 2025-2028. The technical
information (assuming a linear adjustment path) is consistent with an average net
expenditure growth of 5.1% over the adjustment period 2025-2028. The net
expenditure path committed to in the plan is reported to lead to a structural primary
balance of -1.8% of GDP at the end of the adjustment period (2028). This is higher
than the minimum level of the structural primary balance of -2.1% of GDP in 2028
provided by the Commission in the technical information on 24 January 2025
9
.
Table 2: Net expenditure path and main assumptions in Bulgaria’s plan
2025
2026
2027
2028
Average
over the
period of
validity of
the plan
2025-2028
Net expenditure growth
(annual, %)
Net expenditure growth
(cumulative, from base year
2024, %)
Potential GDP growth (%)
Inflation (GDP deflator growth)
(%)
6.2
4.9
4.4
4.0
4.9
6.2
11.4
16.3
21.0
n.a.
2.8
3.9
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.6
3.5
Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Bulgaria and Commission calculations.
9
In the scenario without the deficit resilience safeguard.
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Implications of the plan’s net expenditure commitments for general government debt
(19)
If the net expenditure path committed to in the plan and the underlying assumptions
materialise, general government debt would, according to the plan, gradually increase
over the adjustment period from 24.2% in 2024 to 30.8% of GDP at the end of the
adjustment period, as per the following table. Over the medium term, which means 10
years beyond the end of the adjustment period, this could imply a gradual increase in
general government debt up to 45.3% in 2038.
Table 3: General government debt and balance developments in Bulgaria’s plan
2024
Government debt
(% of GDP)
Government balance
(% of GDP)
-3.0
-3.0
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
-2.9
24.2
2025
25.8
2026
27.4
2027
29.1
2028
30.8
2038
45.3
(1) Source: Medium-term fiscal-structural plan of Bulgaria
Thus, according to the plan, general government debt would stay well below the Treaty
reference value of 60% of GDP over the medium term. Therefore, based on the plan’s policy
commitments and macroeconomic assumptions, the net expenditure path put forward in the
plan is consistent with the requirement for debt as set out in Article 16(2) of Regulation (EU)
2024/1263.
Implications of the plan’s net expenditure commitments for the general government
balance
(20)
Based on the plan’s net expenditure path and assumptions, the general government
deficit would slightly decline to 2.9% of GDP over the adjustment period. Thus,
according to the plan, the general government balance would not exceed the 3% of
GDP reference value at the end of the adjustment period (2028). In addition, in the ten
years following the adjustment period (i.e. until 2038), the government deficit would
not exceed 3% of GDP. Therefore, based on the plan’s policy commitments and
macroeconomic assumptions, the net expenditure path put forward in the plan is
consistent with the requirement for the deficit as set out in Article 16(2) of Regulation
(EU) 2024/1263.
The plan is based on a set of assumptions which differs from the Commission’s
assumptions transmitted to Bulgaria on 24 January 2025. In particular, the plan uses
different assumptions for six variables, namely the starting point for the structural
primary balance in 2024, potential GDP growth, GDP deflator growth, the starting
point for the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024, nominal implicit interest rates and stock-flow
Macroeconomic assumptions of the plan
(21)
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adjustments. An assessment of these differences in assumptions is provided below.
The assessment takes into account the release of outturn data for 2024 after the
submission of the plan, which shifts the base year of the recommendation to 2024.
The differences in assumptions with the most significant impact on average net
expenditure growth are listed below, together with an assessment of each difference
considered in isolation.
•
The plan assumes a structural primary balance of -2.5% of GDP in 2024, which is
0.4 pp lower than the structural primary balance assumed in the prior guidance. This
contributes to lower average net expenditure growth over the adjustment period in
the plan than according to the Commission’s assumptions. The more negative
assumption about the structural primary balance, which translates into a higher
expected headline fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP in 2024, reflects the latest available
budget execution data. This outturn for the nominal deficit in 2024 has since been
confirmed. Consequently, this assumption is deemed to be duly justified.
The plan takes into account that the nominal implicit interest rate increased in 2024
and assumes that it will remain above the levels in the prior guidance. This
contributes to lower average net expenditure growth over the adjustment period in
the plan than according to the Commission’s assumptions. The interest rates are
calculated based on the actual interest payments and government debt levels and
consider the interest rates on the new debt issued in 2024 and January 2025.
Consequently, this assumption is deemed to be duly justified.
The plan assumes potential GDP growth below the prior guidance in 2024 but above
the Commission’s assumptions in 2025-2033, resulting in average potential GDP
growth of 2% in 2025-2038, compared with 1.9% in the prior guidance. This
contributes to slightly higher average net expenditure growth (by approximately 0.1)
over the adjustment period in the plan than according to the Commission’s
assumptions. Bulgaria states in its plan that the difference is explained largely by a
combination of higher labour market participation rates and investment growth,
notably in the public sector. Preliminary employment figures for 2024 are higher
than projected in Commission's autumn 2024 forecast, suggesting that the deviation
in the labour input for potential growth is justified. The public investment
assumption in the plan is inherently policy-driven and appears to be in line with
policy orientations as also confirmed in the adopted 2025 Budget. Overall, the
deviation based on these two factors is deemed to be justified.
The plan assumes GDP deflator growth of 6.4% in 2024, 1.6 pp above the prior
guidance, to remain above the Commission’s assumptions in 2025 and then to fall
below the value in the prior guidance for 2026. This contributes to slightly higher
average net expenditure growth (by approximately 0.1) over the adjustment period in
the plan than according to the Commission’s assumptions. The higher GDP deflator
in 2024 is justified by the latest national accounts figures that show a stronger GDP
deflator increase in 2024, compared to the Commission’s assumptions. In 2025, the
deviation from the prior guidance can be explained by the carry-over effect from the
higher GDP deflator in the second half of 2024. Concerning 2025, neither the
Commission's assumptions nor the Bulgarian plan factored in fully the restoration of
the VAT rates for bread, flour and restaurant services, electricity price hikes for
households and other price increases in January 2025. Reflecting these developments
would lead to higher average net expenditure growth over the adjustment period.
With regards to 2026, the lower GDP deflator in the plan, compared with the prior
•
•
•
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guidance, is attributable to an assumption of more moderate wage increases. The
lower wage increases for 2026 in the plan reflect the assumed higher participation
rates that are justified by the higher recorded participation rates for 2024, compared
to the prior guidance. Consequently, the assumptions on higher GDP deflators in
2024 and 2025 and a lower GDP deflator in 2026 are deemed to be duly justified.
The remaining differences in assumptions on debt and stock-flow adjustments and recent
releases of relevant macro-fiscal indicators do not have a significant impact on average net
expenditure growth compared to the Commission’s assumptions.
Taken together the differences in assumptions lead to an average net expenditure growth in
the plan that is lower than the average net expenditure growth implied by the technical
information.
The Commission will take into account the above assessment of the plan’s assumptions in
future assessments of compliance with the net expenditure path.
Fiscal strategy of the plan
(22)
According to the indicative fiscal strategy in the plan, the commitments on net
expenditure will be delivered mainly through discretionary revenue-increasing
measures. On the revenue side, measures to improve compliance and prevent and
counter tax fraud and evasion, are amongst the main elements supporting the fiscal
targets. Additional revenue measures are expected to yield increases in social
contributions, including increases in the threshold of the maximum insurable income
and planned increases in the length of service for retirement. Lastly, the plan refers to
planned increases in excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products. There are no
significant consolidation measures on the expenditure side, while further increases are
planned in line with recent trends.
The specification of the policy measures to be adopted is to be confirmed or adjusted
and quantified in the annual budgets. Some measures were specified in the 2025
budget, adopted by the National Assembly on 21 March 2025, whereas others are
expected to be confirmed in the forthcoming budgets. Measures planned for 2025
include, on the revenue side, an increase in the maximum insurance income, an
increase in the rate of duty on tobacco and tobacco products, excise as well as the
abolition of reduced VAT rates for various categories of goods and services. On the
expenditure side, increases are planned for salaries in the area of defence and for the
staff in budgetary organisations. Expenditure increases are planned in pensions
expenditure, linked amongst others to the increase in the number of newly awarded
pensions and in pensions supplements. At the same time, there are risks to the
implementation of the indicative fiscal strategy in the plan, due to a general lack of
detail on the design of the indicative strategy, the low predictability of revenues
coming from measures to fight tax evasion and avoidance, as well as reliance on ad
hoc financing sources such as dividends from state-owned enterprises.
(23)
Reform and investment intentions in the plan responding to the main challenges
identified in the context of the European Semester and addressing the common priorities
of the Union
(24)
The plan describes policy intentions concerning reforms and investments to respond to
the main challenges identified in the context of the European Semester, especially the
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CSRs and to address the common priorities of the EU. The plan includes more than
120 reforms and investments addressing the common priorities of the EU, of which
more than 60 are financially supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)
and 40 by the Cohesion policy funds (MFF)
10
. The plan’s reforms and investments are
also based on an existing government strategy document
‘National Development
Programme Bulgaria 2030’.
Concerning the common priority of a fair green and digital transition, including the
climate objectives set out in Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, the plan includes several
measures grouped under policy headings such as boosting transport connectivity,
energy, promoting digitalisation, strengthening education skills and employment,
water supply and wastewater treatment, and climate environment and agriculture. The
reforms and investments included in the plan intend to address, amongst others, CSRs
on energy efficiency issued in 2022 and 2023, on energy efficiency and social
inclusion and protection issued in 2023 and 2024, on renewable energy, infrastructure
and networks issued in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, on research and innovation
and regional development and local public services issued in 2019, on transport and
regional development issued in 2019, 2020, 2023 and 2024, on skills, vocational
education and training and adult learning issued in 2019, 2020, 2023, 2024.
(25)
Concerning the common priority of social and economic resilience, including the
European Pillar of Social Rights, the plan includes several reforms and investments
spanning across different policy domains from sustainable public finances, economy
and business environment, strengthening justice, governance and financial integrity,
boosting transport connectivity, energy, promoting health and social inclusion,
education skills and employment. The reforms and investments included in the plan
intend to address, amongst others, CSRs on healthcare issued in 2019 and 2020, on
labour market policies issued in 2019 and 2020, on education, non-discrimination and
equal opportunities issued in 2020 and 2024, on access to finance and growth
financing issued in 2020, on budgetary framework and fiscal governance issued in
2020, 2022 and 2023, on poverty and social inclusion issued in 2019, 2020, 2023 and
2024, on business environment issued in 2019 and 2020, on renewable energy,
infrastructure and networks issued in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, on transport
and regional development issued in 2019, 2020, 2023 and 2024, on tax administration,
evasion and avoidance issued in 2019.
Concerning the common priority of energy security, the plan includes reforms and
investments to ensure energy independence while also decarbonising the energy
sector. The plan includes reforms to promote the adoption of market principles in the
energy sector, including by liberalising the electricity market, reforms and investments
to differentiate supply and improving ties with neighbouring countries, and to promote
the production and storage of renewable energy. The reforms and investments
included in the plan intend to address, amongst others, CSRs on renewable energy,
infrastructure and networks issued in 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, on energy
efficiency issued in 2022 and 2023, on energy efficiency and social inclusion and
protection issued in 2023 and 2024. The plan does not include measures to address the
2019 CSR on upgrading the state-owned enterprise corporate governance and
(26)
10
The references in the Bulgarian medium-term fiscal-structural plan reflect the currently valid recovery
and resilience plan. The Bulgarian government intends to submit a request for revising its recovery and resilience
plan under Article 21 of Regulation (EU) 2021/241 as well as a request to add a REPowerEU chapter.
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measures to address the 2019 and 2020 CSRs on effective supervision and
enforcement of the anti-money laundering framework. However, these are covered by
measures under the RRP and ERMII post-entry commitments. The plan also does not
include measures to address the 2019 CSR on enforcing group-level supervision in the
non-banking financial sector and on addressing structural weaknesses of the car
insurance sector.
(27)
Concerning the common priority of defence capabilities, the plan includes investments
in modernisation and acquisition of new military capabilities in line with the Defence
Investment Programme, a plan adopted by the National Assembly and covering a time
horizon until 2032.
The plan provides information on the consistency and, where appropriate,
complementarity, with the cohesion policy funds and Bulgaria’s RRP. The plan makes
appropriate references to the measures included in the RRP, MFF and puts forward
some additional ones that are nationally funded.
The plan provides an overview of the public investment needs of Bulgaria related to
the common priorities of the EU. Concerning EU common priority of a fair green
transition, including coherence with European climate legislation, the plan identifies
investment needs linked to the five priority fields identified in the integrated national
energy and climate plan for 2021-2030 prepared under Regulation 2018/1999, namely:
1) decarbonisation, 2) energy efficiency, 3) energy security, 4) internal energy market
and 5) research, innovation and competitiveness. In addition, the plan identifies
investment needs linked to climate change adaptation. Concerning investment needs
for social and economic resilience, including the European Pillar of Social Rights, the
plan identifies investment needs in the areas of education, skills, employment, access
to healthcare, social services and long-term care, gender equality and the
implementation of the European Child Guarantee. Concerning the EU common
priority of energy security, the plan identifies investment needs to diversify sources
and routes for natural gas supply, including by developing infrastructure; further needs
concern hydro power plants and floating power plants, the use of biomass for
electricity production, and electricity storage capacity. Concerning the EU common
priority of building defence capabilities as necessary, the plan identifies investment
needs in the modernisation of the country’s armed forces.
(28)
(29)
Conclusion of the Commission’s assessment
(30)
Overall, the Commission is of the view that Bulgaria’s plan fulfils the requirements of
Regulation (EU) 2024/1263.
In accordance with Article 17 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1263, the net expenditure path
as set in the plan should be recommended by the Council to Bulgaria starting from
2025.
OVERALL CONCLUSION
(31)
HEREBY RECOMMENDS that BULGARIA
Ensure that net expenditure growth does not exceed the maxima established in Annex I to this
Recommendation.
ANNEX I
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Maximum growth rates of net expenditure
(annual and cumulative growth rates, in nominal terms)
Bulgaria
Years
Growth rates (%)
Annual
Cumulative (*)
2025
6.2
6.2
2026
4.9
11.4
2027
4.4
16.3
2028
4.0
21.0
(*) The cumulative growth rates are calculated by reference to the base year of 2024.
The cumulative
growth rates are used in the annual monitoring of ex-post compliance in the control account.
Done at Brussels,
For the Council
The President
EN
11
EN