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Europaudvalget 2025
KOM (2025) 0573
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EUROPEAN

COMMISSION

Brussels, 16.7.2025

COM(2025) 573 final

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND

THE COUNCIL

Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2026-2034)

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Table of Contents

2.1.

2.2.

2.3.

2.4.

2.5.

2.6.

3.1.

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2026-2034............................................................................................................ 2

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF ........................................................... 5

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF ........................................................... 5

Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments made before 2021 .............................. 7

Decommitments ........................................................................................................................................................................... 7

NextGenerationEU ....................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments ............................................................................................. 9

Forecast of inflows of the EU budget 2026-2034 ............................................................................................................. 9

Revenue sources ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11

Annex II

–

Results of the forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Table 1.1

–

Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2026-2034 for the MFF............................................................... 13

Table 1.2

–

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF .................................................................... 14

Table 1.3

–

Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments ......................................................................................... 15

Table 1.4

–

Payments for 2028-2034 commitments .............................................................................................................................. 16

Table 2

–

Forecast decommitments 2026-2027........................................................................................................................................ 18

Table 3

–

Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU ................................................................................................... 19

Table 4

–

Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2026 to 2034 ...................................................................... 20

Table 5

–

Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2026-2030 .......................................................... 21

Table 6

–

Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2028-2034 MFF .................................................... 23

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1. Introduction

This report

projects the inflows and outflows of the EU budget in accordance with Article 253(1)(c) of the Financial

Regulation

. This fifth

iii

edition forecasts the revenue and expenditure stemming from the multiannual financial

framework (MFF) 2021-2027

, NextGenerationEU

and for 2028-2034

based on the Commission proposal for the

next MFF

vii

The forecast differentiates between the reste-à-liquider (RAL) for 2026-2030, based on the legislation currently in

force

and the Commission’s proposal for

2028-2034 for the MFF and the Own Resources Decision

As regards revenue, the forecast until 2027 is based on the revenue system of the current Own Resources

Decision

viii

. The revenue projections also consider the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great

Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community

(‘Withdrawal

Agreement’).

The estimates for payments in 2026 and 2027 take into account the revised expenditure ceilings (technical

adjustment of the MFF for 2026)

and the commitment appropriations included in the financial programming

accompanying the draft budget for 2026

, which incorporates the programme-specific adjustments under Article 5

of the MFF Regulation

xii

(MFFR)

xiii

as well as re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3)of the Financial Regulation.

The mid-term revision of the MFF 2021-2027 is included. Notably the net reinforcement of the expenditure ceiling

for commitments of EUR 3.4 billion, together with changes to the overall allocations under Article 5 MFFR and Article

15(3) of the Financial Regulation

xiv

as well as reinforcements to special instruments. As regards the payment

ceilings, the MFF mid-term revision makes it possible to adjust the 2026 ceiling by the amount equivalent to

amounts unused in 2025 if necessary for financial needs in order to avoid the risk of backlogs.

The mid-term review of cohesion policy offers several flexibilities and financial incentives for Member States to

voluntarily re-programme their cohesion resources to the priorities in the areas of competitiveness, defence,

affordable housing, water resilience and energy transition. These incentives could speed up project implementation.

In addition, the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) Regulation

provides flexibilities for priorities

dedicated to STEP in the cohesion programmes. The deadline for final application for an interim payment for the

final accounting year of the 2014-2020 period has been extended until 31 July 2025.

This forecast also projects payments on all programmes under NextGenerationEU. This expenditure, additional to the

spending under the MFF, is financed by proceeds from borrowing operations on the capital markets.

2. Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2026-

2034

Over the period 2026-2034 payments are estimated at EUR 2 375billion. The estimated annual average of outflows

of the EU budget is EUR 263 billion.

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They are composed of:

•

Payments on outstanding commitments stemming from MFFs prior to 2021-27 estimated at

EUR 13.4 billion;

Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-27, which are paid partly in 2026-27 and partly in the

MFF 28-34, estimated in total at EUR 714 billion;

Payments from NextGenerationEU non-repayable support

xvi

estimated in total at EUR 107 billion.

Payments on commitments for the MFF 2028-2034 estimated in total at EUR 1 642 billion.

For the period until the end of 2027, the forecast includes the programme-specific adjustments based on Article 5

of the MFF Regulation as modified in the mid-term revision of the MFF

–

yielding an overall impact of EUR 10.2

billion (in 2018 prices) for the whole period - and the re-use of decommitments under Article 15(3) of the Financial

Regulation for the year 2027.

Chart 1 - Payments forecast by category

Payments on outstanding commitments stemming from MFFs prior to 2021-27 are estimated at EUR 1.9 billion on

average for 2026-2034. They are expected to decrease and be phased out by end 2031

Payments on commitments made in the MFF 2021-2027 total EUR 89.3 billion on average, of which EUR 190 billion

in 2026-27 and EUR 56 billion post-27. The forecast shows an increase in payments towards the end of this MFF,

with a peak in 2027followed by a decrease towards the second half of the next MFF. This is consistent with past

implementation patterns as the programmes reach cruising speed. NextGenerationEU payments are expected to be

finalised in 2026.

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As per the Commission proposal, payments on commitments made in the MFF 2028-2034 are on average

EUR 235 billion, totalling up to EUR 1 642 billion over the period. Its peak is expected early in the MFF as the phase-

out of previous MFFs overlaps with the new payments, which occur earlier than in the past programming periods.

The unallocated margin under the payment ceilings for 2026 is estimated at EUR 18.6 billion and in 2027 is

estimated at EUR 3.2 billion. This margin is the difference between the payment ceiling (as per the last MFF

technical adjustment) and the forecast of payments for programmes and instruments, which fall under the MFF

ceilings.

Margins can be positive (i.e. forecast payments are less than the payment ceiling) or negative (i.e. forecast payments

exceed the ceiling). This is because the payment ceiling in this MFF is even across the years (in real terms), while the

expenditures vary. The Single Margin Instrument (Article 11(1)(b) MFFR) allows to adjust the payment ceiling over

time, unspent amounts in one year increase the future ceilings. Therefore, the margins prior to 2026 increase the

ceilings in 2026-2027 within the limits set by Articles 11(3) and Article 11(3a) MFFR. Considering these adjustments

as well as the EUR 2.6 billion from the application of Article 5 MFFR, the payment ceiling for 2021-2027 is forecast

to be sufficient to cover all expected payments. The risk of an abnormal backlog in payments is limited, though the

available margin under the payment ceiling is very limited in 2027.

The payment ceiling for the next MFF is forecast to cater for the estimated payment needs.

2.1. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2028-2034 MFF

The payments for the 2028-2034 MFF are forecast at EUR 1 644 billion over the period, covering over 80% of the

MFF.

Heading 1

–

Economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and

maritime prosperity and security

The main driver of the payments profile in the 2028-2034 MFF will be the National and Regional Partnership Plans.

Payments under heading 1 total EUR 965 billion. The payments forecast is based on the parameters set out in the

sectoral legal act.

As of 2028, the EU is due to start the repayment of the debt issued under NextGenerationEU. For the MFF 2028-

2034, the Commission proposes a fixed amount of EUR 24]billion per year in current prices for the repayment of

interest and capital of the non-repayable support provided under NextGenerationEU. This means an overall amount

of EUR 168 billion over 2028-2034. The fixed amount is calculated considering interest costs at forward rates with

a safety buffer to account for interest rate uncertainty. If the interest rates turn out lower than estimated, the

repayment of capital will be anticipated to keep at all times the fixed annuity. This approach ensures full

predictability to the budgetary planning and for Member States contributions to the budget for this item. It insulates

the repayment from market volatility and delivers a steady and predictable reduction of the liabilities stemming

from NextGenerationEU as per Article 5(2) of Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053.

Heading 2

–

Competitiveness, prosperity and security

Payments under heading 2 total EUR 424 billion. Payments are mainly driven by Horizon Europe and by the

European Competitiveness Fund.

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Heading 3

–

Global Europe

Payments under heading 3 total EUR 135 billion. Payments are mainly driven by the Global Europe .

2.2. Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF

Cohesion and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) represent more than half of the projected payments stemming

from the 2021-2027 MFF. The implementation of these two policies largely drives the estimates of the long-term

payment forecast.

Heading 2a - Cohesion policy

The draft budget for 2026 is above the central scenario of last year’s forecast

xvii

as the implementation of cohesion

policy is picking up compared to the historic benchmark of the period 2014-2020. Yet, the European Regional

Development Fund, the Cohesion Fund, and the European Social Fund Plus remain on aggregate below the historical

profile. By end-2026 the payments for cohesion policy are forecast below the previous MFF (34% in the MFF 2014-

2020 compared to the 26% currently). This reflects the delayed approval of the programmes,

national authorities’

efforts to finalise the 2014-2020 programmes, successive adjustments, and the implementation of

NextGenerationEU.

Considering the latest information on implementation, Members States are forecast to speed up implementation in

2026 compared to 2025 to reduce the risk of automatic decommitments. To that effect, it is assumed that the

submission of payment claims would exceed the historical profile in 2027 and reach cruising speed in 2028 and

2029. The RAL remaining at the end of 2029 is expected to be paid in equal proportions in 2030 and 2031.

The mid-term review of cohesion policy provides Member States with opportunities to benefit from one-off pre-

financing and higher EU co-financing by redirecting 2021-2027

resources towards the Union’s new priorities in the

areas of competitiveness, defence, affordable housing, water resilience and energy transition. The related

programme amendments must be submitted before the end of 2025, to allow for additional pre-financing to be

paid in 2026, with an expected net budgetary impact of EUR 4.1 billion. The forecast assumes that any effect of the

revision, as proposed by the Commission, would be accommodated within the payment ceilings for 2027, and is part

of the overall assumption that Member States will manage payments so that decommitments are avoided.

Following the adoption of the STEP Regulation in March 2024, 6 Member States reprogrammed STEP resources

already in 2024. Overall, 29 cohesion policy programme amendments were adopted by the end of December 2024

corresponding to EUR 5.9 billion (ERDF, JTF, ESF+)

xviii

. Based on that, pre-financing is estimated at EUR 1.77 billion

(30% of the total STEP amount). In line with the applicable legal base, 30% pre-financing was also paid on the total

JTF allocation using NGEU resources (EUR 5.9 billion paid in 2024). In 2025, 5 Member States reprogrammed STEP

resources. Overall, 9 programme amendments were adopted by the end of March 2025 corresponding to EUR 0.4

billion. Based on that, the additional pre-financing paid in 2025 amounts to EUR 0.12 billion (30% of the dedicated

STEP priorities’ amount).

Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Just Transition Fund

The payments forecast for Pillar I of the CAP, market-related expenditure and direct payments, amounts to EUR

billion over 2026-2027.

The implementation of Pillar II under the CAP strategic plans, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development

(EAFRD), started in 2023. The transitional provisions extending the 2014-2020 programmes up to 2022 allowed the

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continuation until 2025 of their implementation under the n+3 rule, i.e. providing one more year to complete

payments compared to the rules for the 2023-2027 CAP strategic plans.

The forecast of payments stemming from the MFF 2021-2027 includes the payments from the 2023-2027 CAP

Plans as well as those linked to the extension of the rural development programmes to 2021 and 2022 that will be

completed by 2027 (see point 2.3. payments on pre-2021 commitments). The forecast also considers the transfers

between pillars of the Common Agricultural Policy communicated by Member States

xix

, which resulted in a net

transfer of EUR 2.6 billion from Pillar I (EAGF) to Pillar II (EAFRD) for the years 2025-2027. This transfer amount

might change as Member States are able to review their transfer request up to 31 August 2025.

The implementation of the 2023-2027 CAP plans is expected to gain momentum in 2025 and 2026 and it is

projected to reach a cruising speed in 2028 and 2029, with smaller payments in 2030 and closure expected in

2031. The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural development programmes is expected for 2027 with very

limited payments for 2026 and 2027. Most of the interim payments are to be paid in 2025.

For the Just Transition Fund, the first substantial payments under the MFF ceilings are expected in 2026. The

payment of the pre-financing related to STEP under NextGenerationEU has already taken place in 2024 and

additional payments are expected for 2025 also from NextGenerationEU funding. From 2027 Member States would

be able to use only payments financed through the MFF.

Other

For the European Recovery Instrument (EURI) the amounts for 2026 and 2027 reflect the draft budget proposal and

the accompanying financial programming, respectively.

The Ukraine Reserve, a special instrument that mobilises non-repayable support over and above the MFF

expenditure ceilings, is outside of the scope of this forecast.

2.3. Payments for the completion of outstanding commitments made

before 2021

The payments of outstanding commitments (RAL for

reste à liquider)

made before 2021 is forecast at

EUR 13.4 billion for the period 2026-2031.

Cohesion policy

Most payments on pre-2021 commitments relate to cohesion policy, which is approaching closure. The projections

are based on the latest Member States’ forecast (January

2025) and information on the implementation on the

ground. Following the changes proposed in STEP, the deadline for submitting the final application for an interim

payment for the final accounting year was extended by 12 months to 31 July 2025. Nevertheless, limited payments

are expected in 2025 and afterwards, considering the retention rate and pre-financing clearance. No payments have

been included in the draft budget for 2026.

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Common Agricultural Policy

The completion of the 2014-2022 operational rural development programmes is expected for 2027..

Other programmes

Most of the outstanding payments for the rest of the budget originating before the current MFF are related to

Heading 1

–

Single Market, Innovation and Digital

–

and Heading 6

–

Neighbourhood and the World.

2.4. Decommitments

The decommitments’ forecast

stemming from the programmes of the current and prior MFFs until end-2027 stands

at EUR 5.5 billion. The increase is mostly driven by the cohesion programmes under the current MFF and the

European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD).

The MFF 2028-2034 proposes substantive changes to the delivery modes with a view to simplify and accelerate

implementation. The Commission expects full take up of the commitments proposed for the next MFF. Therefore, no

specific decommitment forecast is produced before the actual start of the new programmes.

Heading 2a

–

Cohesion policy

Considering the latest available forecast from Member States, the risk of de-commitments for the completion of the

programmes 2014-2020 has lowered compared to last year’s report. Overall, the risk of decommitments at the end

of 2027 is reduced thanks to acceleration in implementation, and additional pre-financing stemming from the mid-

term review of cohesion policy.

Heading 3 - Common Agricultural Policy and Just Transition Fund

The forecast of decommitments from rural development programmes 2014-2022 is broadly stable compared to

last year. It is estimated at EUR 3.1 billion which is about 2.4% of the total allocation, a share comparable to that of

the 2007-2013 rural development programmes. As regards the timing, decommitments are expected by the end-

2027 when most of the closure payments will be processed. This is one year later than expected in last year’s

report. This assumption appears more prudent given the substantive number of programmes to handle (more than

100).

At this stage it is unclear if there will be decommitments under the 2023-2027 CAP Strategic Plans. If any, those

are expected to take place at closure (i.e. end 2030/beginning 2031).

Other programmes and headings

For the programmes directly managed by the Commission, the decommitment forecast is built on the most recent

project-level information. As in the previous report, the projections for the decommitments related to the MFF 2021-

2027 programmes are based on the decommitment rates of the predecessor programmes. The exact year of

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decommitment would depend on the closure of individual projects and actions that cannot be forecast with

precision.

2.5. NextGenerationEU

NextGenerationEU

is a temporary emergency instrument for crisis response, recovery, and resilience measures

following the COVID-19 crisis. The non-repayable support component constitutes external assigned revenue to fund

reform and investment priorities

–

in particular through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)

–

and through

reinforcing a number of key programmes for the recovery.

All payments under NextGenerationEU will be concluded by end 2026, except for small amounts linked to

administrative expenditure. The estimates of the expected implementation are drawn separately for each

programme (see Table X), based on the draft budget for 2026. Some amounts of decommitments are expected,

primarily for EAFRD (EUR 0.4 billion).

2.6. Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments

The new MFF is expected to start with a RAL of EUR 339 billion, which compared

to last year’s forecast

(EUR 365 billion) is a decrease of EUR 26 billion. This result is partly driven by the acceleration of cohesion, for which

under the N+3 decommitment rule payment are backloaded towards the end of the MFF and after.

NextGenerationEU RAL will be absorbed by end 2026 when all the payments will be completed, except for small

amounts linked to administrative expenditure.

The forecast for the RAL stemming from the 2021-2027 and previous MFFs (excluding NextGenerationEU) declines

from 1.85% to 1.7% in 2027 as a share of EU -27 GNI.

The RAL at the end of 2034 is forecast at EUR 331 billion or 1.3% of EU-27 GNI. It will originate mostly from

commitments under the MFF 2028-2034 as the RAL for pre-2028 commitments is expected to be largely closed by

end 2033.

As a share of the MFF 2028-34 the RAL at the end of 2034 will represent approximately one fifth, which is smaller

than the same metric for the current MFF. The new generation of programmes are expected be implemented more

rapidly compared to historic benchmarks, notably in relation to the expenditures under shared management.

3. Forecast of inflows of the EU budget

2026-2034

Until 2027, the revenue forecast is based on the own resources system currently in place, under Council Decision

(EU, Euratom) 2020/2053. The revenue as of 2028 is forecast based on the system proposed by the Commission

with the proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.

The revenue projections are based on the Commission spring 2025 economic forecast and long-term growth

projections.

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The EU budget is financed by own resources and other revenue. In addition, the Union is empowered to borrow funds

to finance NextGenerationEU, which are channelled into the budget through external assigned revenue. The present

forecast focuses on the revenue necessary to finance the budget expenditure within the MFF.

The own resources needed to finance the budget are determined by total expenditure less

‘other

revenue’.

Accordingly, the forecast of the EU budget revenue is based on the principle that expenditure must be matched by

revenue; therefore, total revenue equals total expenditure.

Since 2021, in line with the Withdrawal Agreement (part V), the United Kingdom contributes to the EU budget in

relation to outstanding

commitments of previous financial frameworks. The United Kingdom’s contribution

constitutes ‘other revenue’ of the EU budget. It will progressively phase

out as the outstanding commitments will be

settled. Other miscellaneous revenues are assumed to remain nominally constant at the level of the 2026 Draft

Budget.

Own resources

–

national contributions and customs duties

–

account for most of the revenue needed to finance

budget expenditure. The spending cycle determines the development of national contributions over the forecast

period. The projected increases towards the end of the MFF will lead to increasing national contributions in 2026-

2027, which is consistent with historical patterns. On average for the period 2026-2027, national contributions are

projected at EUR 169 billion per year or 0.86%

of the EU’s Gross National Income.

3.1. Revenue sources

Traditional own resources (customs duties) are projected to grow over the period 2027-2034 at the same rate as

GNI in current prices of each Member State starting from the level of gross customs duties projected for the Draft

Budget 2026. From 2028, the parameters of the new Own Resources Decision proposal are used.

Revenue from the VAT-based own resource is projected starting from the VAT bases of the individual Member States

included in the Draft Budget 2026. The VAT bases are projected to grow over the period 2027-2034 at the same

rate as GNI in current prices.

The plastics-based own resource is projected starting from non-recycled plastic packing waste included in the Draft

Budget 2026. The corresponding plastic packaging waste is projected to grow at the same rate as GNI in constant

prices over 2027-2034. Recycling rates are projected to converge linearly towards the EU recycling target of 55%,

which must be achieved by 2030.

The GNI-based own resource for the EU-27 is calculated as the remaining difference between all other own

resources and other revenue on the one hand and the forecast expenditure on the other. The parameters for the

own resources specified in the Own Resources Decision determine the Member States’ share in the total amount of

national contributions that is needed to balance the EU budget.

The Commission proposal for a Own Resources Decision includes several additional own resources, as follows.

The revenue forecast for the own resource based on the European Emission Trading System (ETS1) is based on an

assumed carbon price of EUR 88.33 in 2025 prices. The number of auctioned emission allowances is derived from

the legal provisions in the ETS Directive

Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a scheme

for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC

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Regarding the own resource based on e-waste, first the underlying non-collected waste of electrical and electronic

equipment (WEEE) in a Member State in a given year is calculated. Collection rates are projected to converge linearly

towards the EU collection target of 65% by 2034.

Revenue from the Tobacco Excise Duty Own Resource (TEDOR) is projected based on the Tobacco Excise Duty

Directive and its proposed recast.

Revenue from the own resource based on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is projected assuming

the same carbon price as with ETS1.

The projections for the Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE) are based on 2023 firm-level data of the Orbis

database. An annual lump-sum contribution from all companies that operate and sell in the EU is applied as

specified in the Commission proposal for a new Own Resources Decision.

Other revenue of the EU budget traditionally includes staff contributions, revenue accruing from the administrative

operation of the institutions, contributions and refunds in connection with Union agreements and programmes,

interest on late payments and fines, revenue from borrowing and lending operations, revenue from fees not

assigned to specific expenditure, and miscellaneous revenue

–

as well as surpluses from previous years. Given their

inherent volatility, most of these components are difficult to forecast. Therefore, the amount included in the Draft

Budget 2026 (i.e., EUR 3 billion) is assumed to remain nominally constant over the forecast period.

Since 2021, in addition to the above-mentioned items, other revenue of the EU budget includes the United

Kingdom’s contribution related to outstanding commitments (RAL) for which the United Kingdom is liable, pension

obligations and other components of the financial settlement, as laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement

. This is

also reflected in the proposed financing of the Draft Budget 2026.

The contribution of the United Kingdom related to outstanding commitments on 31 December 2020 is determined

by applying the United Kingdom’s financing share to the forecast RAL payments for each year of the 2026-2030

period. The resulting annual contribution takes into account the payment modalities set out in Article 148 of the

Withdrawal Agreement.

The forecast of other revenue includes the United Kingdom’s contribution to pension liabilities for Members and EU

high-level public office holders as specified in Article 142(5) of the Withdrawal Agreement. The United Kingdom

contribution to staff pensions (an estimated EUR 333 million in the Draft Budget 2026) enters the EU budget as

external assigned revenue and is therefore not part of the long-term forecast of other revenue.

In any given year, the total own resources collected by the Union may not exceed the own resources ceiling set in

the Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 1.4% of EU-27 GNI, with an additional temporary increase of 0.6%

of EU GNI for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to fund

NextGenerationEU.

For the period 2028-2034, the own resources ceilings set in the proposed new the Own Resources Decision are

increased as follows:

All components of the United Kingdom contribution are laid down in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The

forecast only includes components which are quantifiable at this stage, namely the provisional United Kingdom

contribution to the financing of payments resulting from outstanding commitments prior to 2021 for which the

United Kingdom is liable under Article 140 and pension liabilities specified under Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal

Agreement as well as the amounts the Union owes to the United Kingdom under Article 145 (European Coal and

Steel Community) and Article 146 (Union investment in the EIF).

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•

1.75% under the permanent ceiling.

0.6% under the ceiling for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing on the capital markets to

fund NextGenerationEU.

0.25% for the crisis instrument, in case of activation.

4. Conclusions

The initiatives put forward to support Member States, third countries and specific sectors have accelerated

payments across all budget programmes. The improved implementation of 2021-2027 cohesion policy programmes

decreases the risks of decommitments. It is assumed that Member States will do what is needed to avoid

decommitments, benefitting also from policy incentives, such as those proposed for the mid-term review of

cohesion policy. For the years ahead, Member States will need to implement NextGenerationEU funds by 2026.

The RAL at the end of the current MFF is expected to decrease to EUR 330 billion. In the MFF 2028-2034, the new

delivery model for programmes in shared management together with the N+1 decommitment target is expected to

accelerate implementation and substantially reduce the RAL at the end of the next MFF. For the other programmes,

the simplifications proposed are also expected to accelerate payments compared with historical trends, which would

also contribute to containing the RAL.

The MFF payment ceiling remains sufficient to cover the projected payments until the end of the current MFF.

Overall, the net margin in 2026 is EUR 18.6 billion and in-2027 including programme-specific adjustments is

estimated at EUR 3.2 billion.

In the 2028-2034 MFF,

the Commission’s proposed payments ceiling

is following a frontloaded profile as of the

second year of the MFF, driven predominantly by the more accelerated payment profile for the National and

Regional Partnership plans compared to their predecessors.

The revenue to finance the budget follows the MFF expenditure cycle. The proposed package of new own resources

is expected to keep national contributions within known boundaries.

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Annex II

–

Results of the forecast

All values are in billions of EUR, current prices, unless otherwise specified. Some totals may not tally due to rounding.

Table 1.1

–

Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2026-2034 for the MFF

Year

Commitment Ceiling

Payment Ceiling

In addition, adjustment for MFFR

Article 5 (estimate for future years)

Commitments (programmed)*

Forecast Payments**

Of which Special Instruments***

2026

182.9

201.2

0.0

193.4

192.2

6.5

2027

186.2

195.2

2.6

194.8

196.6

0.1

266.7

270.0

279.9

300.7

280.1

297.1

287.1

292.8

290.6

277.4

281.8

274.7

276.0

267.5

2 350.4

2 375.4

2028

269.5

270.0

2029

282.9

300.7

2030

283.1

297.1

2031

290.4

292.8

2032

294.1

277.4

2033

285.4

274.7

2034

279.7

267.5

TOTAL

2 353.9

2 379.1

* In line with the draft budget for 2026, including the Ukraine Reserve allocation and appropriations stemming from Article 5 of the MFF Regulation and Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation and Article 15(3) of

the Financial Regulation.

** Includes the estimated level of payments for the Ukraine Reserve in 2026 only.

*** The amounts for special instruments cover the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve, the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund, the Brexit Adjustment Reserve, the Ukraine Reserve, the EURI Instrument, and

the Flexibility Instrument. In the subsequent tables, the payments related to the mobilisations of the Flexibility Instrument and the EURI Instrument are included within the respective headings. No assumption is

made for future use of special instruments in 2028-2034.

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 1.2

–

Payments in relation to the commitments of the 2021-2027 MFF

MFF Heading

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion

2.2 Resilience and Values

3 Natural Resources and Environment

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct

payments

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources

and Environment

4 Migration and Border Management

5 Security and Defence

6 Neighbourhood and the World

7 European Public Administration

Outside the MFF

Special Instruments

Total

2026

21.5

73.6

58.7

14.9

53.0

40.5

12.5

3.8

2.2

15.5

13.5

3.2

1.9

188.1

2027

22.9

74.3

61.7

12.6

56.1

40.5

15.6

3.5

2.5

18.3

13.9

0.0

191.5

2028

18.6

70.9

68.3

2.6

15.9

0.0

15.9

2.5

2.3

15.3

0.0

125.5

2029

9.4

70.4

68.9

1.5

15.9

0.0

15.9

2.8

1.9

10.5

0.0

110.9

2030

5.9

37.7

37.0

0.7

4.0

0.0

4.0

2.7

1.2

6.1

0.0

57.5

2031

3.7

23.2

22.9

0.3

4.4

0.0

4.4

1.1

0.4

3.2

0.0

36.0

2032

1.5

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.1

1.3

0.0

4.2

2033

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.5

Total

83.7

351.0

318.1

32.9

149.7

81.0

68.7

16.7

10.6

70.3

27.4

3.2

1.9

714.4

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 1.3

–

Payments for the completion of pre-2021 commitments

MFF Heading

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial

cohesion

2.2 Resilience and Values

3 Natural Resources and Environment

3.1 Market related expenditure and direct

payments

3.2 Other programmes of Natural

Resources and Environment

4 Migration and Border Management

5 Security and Defence

6 Neighbourhood and the World

Total

2026

1.8

1.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

1.0

4.1

2027

0.9

0.4

0.0

2.2

0.0

2.2

0.1

1.3

5.0

2028

0.6

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

1.1

2.0

2029

0.5

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.3

1.1

2030

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.8

2031

0.3

0.0

2032

0.0

Total

4.4

1.4

0.0

2.9

0.0

2.9

0.5

0.3

3.9

13.4

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 1.4

–

Payments for 2028-2034 commitments

MFF Heading

1. Economic, social and territorial cohesion,

agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and

security

2. Competitiveness, prosperity and security

3. Global Europe

4. Administration

Total

2028

108.3

14.8

4.8

14.9

142.8

2029

122.7

40.6

9.9

15.6

188.8

2030

150.9

57.4

14.6

16.3

239.1

2031

150.7

68.8

19.6

16.9

256.0

2032

157.8

73.1

24.8

17.5

273.2

2033

144.3

82.9

28.9

18.1

274.2

2034

130.3

86.2

32.3

18.7

267.5

Total

965.0

423.7

134.9

117.9

1 641.5

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 2

–

Forecast decommitments 2026-2027

MFF Heading

1 Single Market, Innovation and Digital

2 Cohesion, Resilience and Values

2.1 Economic, Social and territorial cohesion

2.2 Resilience and Values

3 Natural Resources and Environment

3.2 Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment

4 Migration and Border Management

5 Security and Defence

6 Neighbourhood and the World

Total

Completion

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.1

3.2

0.0

4.4

MFF

0.5

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

1.2

Total

1.0

0.5

0.4

3.2

0.2

0.0

0.1

5.5

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 3

–

Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU

Programme

Horizon Europe

InvestEU

European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)

European Social Fund (ESF)

European Recovery and Resilience Facility

Union Civil Protection Mechanism (RescEU)

European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD)

Just Transition Fund

Total

2026

0.2

1.2

0.0

100.4

0.5

1.4

3.3

107.0

2027

0.0

0.1

Total

0.2

1.2

0.0

100.4

0.5

1.4

3.3

107.1

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 4

–

Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2026 to 2034

Source

RAL start-2026

(estimate)*

355.9

107.4

463.3

2 350.5

Commitments

2026-2034

2 350.4

0.1

Payments

2026-2034

2 368.8

107.1

2 475.9

Decommitments

2026-2027

5.5

0.4

5.9

331.9

0.0

331.9

RAL end-2034

MFF

NGEU

Total

* The RAL at the start of 2025 excludes amounts generated from other revenues (excluding NextGenerationEU), which is not included in the table.

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 5

–

Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2026-2030

INFLOWS

Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross

National Income

of which temporary increase for NGEU

Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR

billion*

of which temporary increase for NGEU

Net amount of traditional own

resources**

National contributions

of which

VAT-based own resource

Plastic-based own resource

GNI-based own resource

Total own resources

of which own resources to finance NGEU

liabilities****

c=a+b

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total

2.00%

0.60%

2.00%

0.60%

2.00%

0.60%

2.00%

0.60%

2.00%

0.60%

385.2

111.5

21.4

167.4

24.8

6.8

135.8

188.7

8.02

398.1

115.6

22.1

171.2

25.6

6.8

138.8

193.3

411.1

119.4

22.9

101.5

26.4

6.8

68.3

124.42

424.6

123.3

23.7

85.6

27.3

6.7

51.6

109.3

437.8

127.4

24.4

30.9

28.1

6.7

-3.9***

55.4

114.5

556.6

132.1

33.8

390.6

671.1

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

INFLOWS

Other revenue (incl. provisional UK

contribution)

TOTAL REVENUE

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total

c+d

3.5

192.2

3.3

196.6

3.0

127.4

2.7

112.0

2.6

58.0

15.2

686.3

* Own Resources ceiling

–

calculated based on the Spring 2025 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27

** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of 25% retention rate for collection costs.

*** For 2030 the amount of the GNI OR results in surplus which will be returned to the Member States.

**** For 2026 and 2027 based on current financial programming.

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Table 6

–

Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget of 2028-2034 MFF

INFLOWS

Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross National

Income*

Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR billion

Total Own resources:

of which

Net amount of traditional own resources**

VAT-based own resource

Plastic-based own resource

European Emission Trading System based own

resource (ETS1)

E-waste based own resource

Tobacco Excise Duty own resource (TEDOR)

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

Corporate Resource for Europe (CORE)

GNI-based own resource

Other revenue (incl. fees and provisional UK

contribution, European Travel Information and

Authorisation System (ETIAS) fee)

TOTAL REVENUE

c=a+b

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Total

2.35%

483.1

266.7

34.5

2.35%

498.9

297.7

35.7

2.35%

514.4

294.1

36.8

2.35%

530.2

289.9

38.0

2.35%

546.3

274.5

39.2

2.35%

562.7

271.8

40.4

2.35%

579.5

264.3

41.6

1 959.0

266.3

26.6

9.3

8.8

16.2

13.0

0.9

7.4

149.9

3.3

270.0

27.5

9.5

11.7

16.5

12.7

1.0

7.5

175.8

3.0

300.7

28.3

9.7

11.3

16.7

12.4

1.3

7.5

170.2

2.9

297.1

29.2

9.9

13.0

16.9

12.8

1.5

7.6

161.0

2.9

292.8

30.1

10.1

11.7

17.1

12.5

1.9

7.7

144.3

2.9

277.4

31.0

10.3

17.3

12.2

2.0

7.8

140.5

2.9

274.7

31.9

10.5

8.8

17.4

12.7

2.2

7.9

131.4

3.1

267.5

204.4

69.2

75.6

118.0

88.3

10.8

53.3

1 073.0

21.1

1 980.1

* Own Resources ceiling

–

calculated based on the Spring 2025 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of a 10% retention rate for collection costs.

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

In light of the upcoming deadline for the tabling of the Commission proposals for the next MFF package, complying

with the deadline provided for in Article 253(2) of the Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 was not possible for this

report.

Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the

financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast), OJ L 2024/2559, 26.9.2024.

iii

COM(2021)343, 30.6.2021. This is the first edition of this report for the 2021-27 MFF period.

Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021

to 2027, OJ L 433I, 22.12.2020, p. 11.

Council Regulation (EU) 2020/2094 establishing a European Union Recovery Instrument to support the recovery in

the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, OJ L 433I , 22.12.2020, p. 23

(‘NextGenerationEU’).

Unless otherwise specified, all amounts in the report are expressed in current prices.

Council Regulation [(EU, Euratom) 20XX/XXX * COM(2025) 571

vii

viii

Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 14 December 2020 on the system of own resources of the

European Union and repealing Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom, OJ L 424, 15.12.2020, p. 1.

OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1.

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Technical adjustment of the

multiannual financial framework for 2026 in accordance with Article 4 of Council Regulation (EU, Euratom)

2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027. COM(2025) 800 final.

Statement of estimates of the European Commission for the financial year 2026. SEC(2025) 250.

Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/765 of 29 February 2024 amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093

laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027, OJ L, 2024/765, 29.02.2024.

xii

Article 5 of the MFF Regulation provides for the additional allocation in commitment and payment appropriations

for a pre-defined list of programmes, for an amount equivalent to certain types of fines within pre-defined

minimum and maximum amounts.

xiii

kom (2025) 0573 - Ingen titel

Joint declaration by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on the re-use of decommitted

funds in relation to the research programme (C/2024/1972), OJ C, C/2024/1972, 29.02.2024.

xiv

Regulation (EU) 2024/795 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 February 2024 establishing the

Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP), and amending Directive 2003/87/EC and Regulations (EU).

2021/1058, (EU) 2021/1056, (EU) 2021/1057, (EU) No 1303/2013, (EU) No 223/2014, (EU) 2021/1060, (EU)

2021/523, (EU) 2021/695, (EU) 2021/697 and (EU) 2021/241, OJ L, 2024/795, 29.02.2024.

The amount is complemented by EUR 20 billion REPowerEU grants financed under the Emissions Trading Scheme

(ETS) and EUR 2.1 billion in transfers from the Brexit Adjustment Reserve (BAR).

xvi

Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Long-term forecast of future inflows

and outflows of the EU budget (2025-2029). COM(2024) 276 final.

xvii

xviii

The cut-off date for reporting related to STEP is March 2025.

Member States decided to transfer funds between direct payments and rural development. The result was set out

in Commission Delegated Regulation 2023/813 of 8 February 2023.

xix

The cut-off date for NextGenerationEU figures is 16 May 2025.